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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — June 28, 2026

Sunday, June 28, 20268 racesMountaineer

Mountaineer Park is rolling out an eight-race Sunday card on June 28, and conditions are about as good as it gets in the West Virginia hills — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 78°F. That kind of weather keeps the turf firm and the dirt playing honest, which matters a lot when you're trying to separate contenders from pretenders.

Today's card blends maiden action, allowance company, and a string of claiming and starter optional claiming races that give sharp bettors plenty of angles to work. The first three races are on us — free to every TrackWiz reader — and they set up a card that rewards patience and a little digging into the data.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight on the turf with 14 first-time or winless starters — TrackWiz ratings spread from 17 all the way to 80, meaning there's a clear tier of contenders but plenty of chaos below them.

win7Smart Little LassML 5/1

Smart Little Lass (#7) tops our TrackWiz ratings in this field at 79.8, which is the number that matters most when you're sorting through a mob of maidens with no win to their name. Trainer Stephani Norris sends her out with jockey Alejandro Gomez, and at 5/1 on the morning line, the market isn't overreacting to her credentials. One mile on the turf suits closers and horses with stamina, and her profile suggests she's the most complete runner in this field.

place11Pivot To The PowerML 4/1

Pivot To The Power (#11) checks in second on our ratings at 76.53 and draws trainer Eric R. Reed, who knows how to condition a horse for a turf route. The 4/1 morning line reflects legitimate public respect, and with jockey Charle Oliveros up — who also handles the longshot Fillyrules — Reed clearly put the call in for his better runner. In a maiden field this deep, her rating edge over most of the field is a strong reason to include her in exotics.

show6ImprudentML 5/2

Imprudent (#6) slots in at 74.63 on the TrackWiz scale and gets the prime rail-adjacent draw from post 6 for jockey Luis Alberto Batista, who is among the busier riders on this card. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's the public's second choice, and that market confidence isn't unfounded — her rating is the third-best in the field. If you're building a trifecta, she's a safe underneath piece against the two horses above her in the hierarchy.

Race 2

11:25 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 fur · Turf

This allowance sprint on the turf features a fascinating contrast: the top-rated horse on our board is also the morning-line favorite, but there's a genuine value threat lurking at 8/1 with an eye-popping career win percentage.

win14HoneyquistML 2/1

Honeyquist (#14) leads all horses with an 82.54 TrackWiz rating and comes in as the 2/1 morning-line favorite for trainer Anthony Farrior and jockey Erik Barbaran. Her 36% career win rate is among the better figures in this field, and that combination of high rating and proven winning ability makes her the clear top choice. In a 5-furlong turf sprint, early speed and tactical positioning are critical — Barbaran is a capable hand to put her in the right spot.

place2Midnight ShowML 8/1

Midnight Show (#2) is the eye-catcher of the entire card — a 100% career win rate, which means she's undefeated in her starts, combined with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in this field. At 8/1 on the morning line, the public may be discounting her because of limited career experience, but trainer Claudie Marshall Godsey, Jr. appears to have found a spot where she can succeed. She's the kind of horse you can't leave off your exacta tickets.

show7Button BoxML 4/1

Button Box (#7) rates third on our board at 78.12 and draws a 4/1 morning line that reflects solid public confidence. With an average speed figure of 56 — tied for the highest in the field alongside Yes I Am Free and You Bet a Fortune — she brings legitimate pace into this sprint scenario. Trainer Crystal Richison also has S S Trackside Fun in this race, and Button Box is clearly the stable's A-entry with Kevin Gonzalez in the irons.

Race 3

11:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Sylvette arrives as a dominant favorite in this maiden claiming mile on the dirt, but Somethingtosay and Catrina Zar make it a genuine three-horse affair worth dissecting — the top three on our board are separated by meaningful ratings gaps from the rest.

win1SylvetteML 2/1

Sylvette (#1) is the standout of this race and arguably one of the stronger favorites on the entire card, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — a full seven points clear of second-ranked Somethingtosay. Trainer Anthony Farrior puts Erik Barbaran up from the rail, and at 2/1 she draws legitimate chalk respect. In a maiden claiming field where most runners have struggled to find the winner's circle, her rating advantage represents a class edge that's hard to ignore.

place5SomethingtosayML 4/1

Somethingtosay (#5) checks in at 81.38 on the TrackWiz scale and gets Bailey Weatherly in the irons — a strong booking from trainer Donald T. Blankenship. What's interesting is that her average speed figure of 50 is actually in line with Sylvette's, suggesting the gap between them in real speed may be smaller than the ratings differential implies. At 4/1, she's the right horse to back underneath if you're playing exotic wagers.

show8Catrina ZarML 5/1

Catrina Zar (#8) brings the best average speed figure in the field at 51 and rates third on our board at 75.68, making her a logical third piece in trifecta combinations. Trainer Juan C. Vazquez puts Luis Negron aboard from post 8, giving her outside positioning on a one-mile dirt oval where stalking trips can set up nicely. At 5/1 on the morning line, she offers fair value as an underneath play in a race where the top two look clearly superior.

The free portion of today's card opens on the turf, with Smart Little Lass drawing our attention in Race 1 at a morning line of 5/1 — she's not the favorite, and that's exactly why she's interesting. Race 2 keeps us on the grass for a sharp 5-furlong sprint, where Honeyquist comes in as the 2/1 morning line choice and the highest-rated of the early free picks at 82.54 on the TrackWiz scale.

By Race 3 we move to the dirt for a mile maiden claiming, and Sylvette (2/1 ML, 88.54 rating) looks like the class of that field. With the turf playing firm in these conditions and the dirt track likely fast, pace scenarios should be clean across all three openers — making them solid standalone plays before we get into the teeth of the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Khnum looks like a dominant force in this claiming mile on the dirt, but Unstable Mabel's elite 33% career win rate makes this more than a one-horse race — and Khozanall at 5/1 could be the sneaky value play in the exotics.

win4KhnumML 2/1

Khnum (#4) earns the top TrackWiz rating on this card for any non-maiden race — an 88.54 that matches Sylvette in Race 3 — and draws Ricardo Barrios from post 4 for trainer Tina Ramgeet. His 11% career win rate is modest, but in a competitive claiming field, what separates him is the sheer size of the rating gap over the field. At 2/1 on the morning line, he's not a steal, but he's the right horse to anchor your tickets.

place11KhozanallML 5/1

Khozanall (#11) rates second in this race at 72.33 and checks in at a workable 5/1 morning line, giving him genuine value appeal in the exotics. Trainer Moises Valdez also has Tango Zulu in the race, but the jockey call tells the story — Alejandro Gomez takes the mount on Khozanall, who has a 7% career win rate that's competitive for this class level. His average speed figure of 51 matches several others in the field, making him a live contender for second.

show6Unstable MabelML 3/1

Unstable Mabel (#6) brings a 33% career win rate that towers over every other horse in this field — nearly triple the rate of the favorite. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini puts Francisco Garcia up at 3/1 on the morning line, and that experience converting wins is something you can't manufacture. She rates third on our board at 69.31, and if Khnum hits any trouble early, she could make this a two-horse race in the stretch.

Race 5

12:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Big Producer looks like the class of this six-furlong dirt claimer, but Loyal Clement is close enough on the ratings to make this a genuine top-two battle — and Cold Plunge could be the pace factor that scrambles the order.

win4Big ProducerML 5/2

Big Producer (#4) leads the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and draws Brandon Whitacre for trainer Terry J. Crago — a solid combination in a competitive sprint. His 20% career win rate is in the middle of the pack, but his average speed figure of 54 is tied for the best in the race, giving him a real pace edge in a six-furlong dash where early fractions matter. At 5/2, he's a fair price for the top-rated runner in the field.

place5Loyal ClementML 4/1

Loyal Clement (#5) slots in right behind at 81.84 on our ratings and also posts an average speed figure of 54 — identical to Big Producer — which sets up the possibility of a front-two pace battle. Luis Negron rides for trainer Juan Carlos Gotera, and Loyal Clement's 23% career win rate is one of the strongest in the field. If the pace scenario favors one of them over the other, the difference could come down to position and trip rather than raw ability.

show1Cold PlungeML 6/1

Cold Plunge (#1) rates third at 68.83 and owns a 15% career win rate, which is respectable for a claimer at this level. Trainer John T. Brown sends him out from the rail with Kevin Gonzalez, and at 6/1 on the morning line, he represents the best value among the contenders. His average speed figure of 53 keeps him in the speed conversation, and a rail trip in a sprint can be a significant advantage if the pace up front gets hot.

Race 6

1:05 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Stormy Hollow tops the TrackWiz ratings but goes off at a generous 7/1 morning line in this starter optional claiming sprint — making this race a potential value play against the more heavily backed Mitico.

win3Stormy HollowML 7/1

Stormy Hollow (#3) leads the field with an 81.25 TrackWiz rating despite being just the third choice on the morning line at 7/1 — that's a significant gap between our numbers and the market's assessment. Trainer Anthony Farrior puts Erik Barbaran aboard, the same combination we liked in Race 3, and their 20% career win rate is solidly competitive. His average speed figure of 54 ties him with several other leading contenders, and at that price, he's our top value play on the card.

place2MiticoML 3/1

Mitico (#2) is the morning-line favorite's spot at 3/1 and rates just behind Stormy Hollow at 79.9, which makes him a legitimate contender even if our model prefers the horse at longer odds. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva puts Norberto Arroyo, Jr. in the irons — the meet's busiest jockey by appearances on today's card — and a 19% career win rate suggests he gets to the winner's circle with regularity. In a six-furlong sprint, his average speed figure of 54 keeps him right in the mix.

show1Pure PanicML 6/1

Pure Panic (#1) rates third at 73.61 and draws the rail for trainer Michael E. Jones, Jr. with Luis Alberto Batista up — one of the most active jockey-trainer pairings on this card. At 6/1 on the morning line, he's a fair price for a horse who sits comfortably in the top three of our ratings, and a 13% career win rate shows he's capable of hitting the board. In a starter optional claiming race where class eligibility can thin the truly competitive horses, his spot here looks legitimate.

Race 7

1:30 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Canadian Bear has a clear ratings advantage in this one-mile starter optional claimer, but Take Wings at 3/1 is close enough to make this a real two-horse race — the rest of the field faces a steep climb to keep up.

win7Canadian BearML 4/1

Canadian Bear (#7) tops this field at 85.62 on the TrackWiz scale and gets Rocco Bowen in the saddle for trainer Jay P. Bernardini, who also has Redwhiteandtacos in the race. The jockey call to Bowen — one of the sharper riders anywhere — signals this is the barn's serious contender. At 4/1, there's value here relative to his rating advantage, and his average speed figure of 53 is among the best in the field for a route race.

place2Take WingsML 3/1

Take Wings (#2) is the morning-line second choice at 3/1 and backs it up with an 82.0 TrackWiz rating — just 3.6 points behind Canadian Bear. Brandon Whitacre gets the mount for trainer Wilson C. Langley, and a 26% career win rate is the highest of any horse in this field, making Take Wings a horse who consistently converts ability into victories. If Canadian Bear gets shuffled back or tangled in traffic on the turn, Take Wings has the profile to steal this.

show9GoldcrestML 9/2

Goldcrest (#9) rates a solid third in this field at 68.57 and brings a 21% career win rate that reflects a horse who knows how to finish. Luis Negron picks up the mount for trainer Juan C. Vazquez — a trainer-jockey combo that also collaborated in Race 2 with Pallino — and the 9/2 morning line offers reasonable value. In a nine-horse field where the top two are clearly separated, Goldcrest is the logical third piece in multi-horse wagers.

Race 8

1:55 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Bonita Vida enters this 14-horse claiming sprint as the class of the field with a staggering 60% career win rate — the question isn't whether she belongs, it's whether anyone else can run with her.

win5Bonita VidaML 3/1

Bonita Vida (#5) is the most compelling single horse on today's card when you factor in both rating and career win percentage. Her 87.08 TrackWiz score leads the race, but that 60% career win rate — meaning she wins more than half her starts — is extraordinary at any level. Trainer John T. Brown puts Yuri Yaranga up at 3/1, which is fair but not generous for a horse this dominant statistically. In a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint, a horse with that kind of finishing record is exactly what you want.

place2Seems to WhisperML 4/1

Seems to Whisper (#2) rates second in this sprawling 14-horse field at 76.07 and draws Bailey Weatherly for trainer Robert S. Scallan. Her average speed figure of 53 matches several top contenders, and a 13% career win rate is modest but not alarming for a claimer who's been competitive at this level. At 4/1 on the morning line, she's the logical exacta partner with Bonita Vida for players who want to structure their tickets around the top two on the ratings board.

show10Hello SweetsML 6/1

Hello Sweets (#10) comes in at 71.96 on the TrackWiz scale — third in the field — and brings a 25% career win rate that's one of the stronger figures among the contenders. Trainer Eddie Clouston sends her out with Elijah Greenidge at 6/1, a price that represents genuine value for a horse whose numbers support a top-three finish. In a field this large, trifecta players need a reliable third piece, and Hello Sweets fits that role neatly.

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Bottom line: today's Mountaineer card plays out across a nice variety of conditions, and our top free picks — Smart Little Lass, Honeyquist, and Sylvette — give you three solid starting points. The premium card rounds out with five more races including a couple of genuine value angles our model identified. Full analysis, pace maps, and exotic tickets are all live for subscribers. Good luck out there — let's have a day.

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