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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — August 9, 2026

August 9, 20268 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

This card ran on August 9, 2026.

Best bets at Monmouth Park, August 9, 2026

Race 14Souper DocumentML 9/512:50 PM EDT

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It's a warm Sunday at the Jersey Shore — 87°F under partly cloudy skies — and Monmouth Park is serving up an 8-race card that leans heavily on the turf. Three of the first six races are run on the grass, so pay close attention to how that course is playing as the afternoon unfolds. A firm turf rail that's holding speed early can flip the whole card's calculus by the late races.

The card opens with a trio of maiden events before stepping up to claiming, allowance, and optional claiming company. There's genuine intrigue spread across all eight races — from a pair of maiden claimers on the turf bookending the card, to a starter allowance going two turns in Race 5 that shapes up as one of the more tactically interesting spots of the day. Plenty to dig into.

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Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden claiming turf sprint where the TrackWiz ratings create a clear top three, but several first-time runners make the pace scenario and early fractions unpredictable.

win4Souper DocumentML 9/5

Souper Document draws the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.83 — a significant gap over the second-ranked Battle Lou at 78.62. Pedro L. Cotto Jr. gets the call, and the 9/5 morning line reflects how the market sees this one too. With an average speed figure of 54 and the best composite score in the field, this horse looks like the right favorite on a 5½-furlong turf sprint. In a maiden field with plenty of unknowns, you want the horse who projects most clearly, and that's the 4.

place6Battle LouML 4/1

Battle Lou (6) sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 78.62 and carries a 4/1 morning line, making this a live place contender with some value attached. Andy Hernandez rides for Ruperto A. Perez, and the horse's average speed of 53 is respectable in this company. If Souper Document draws all the action at short odds, Battle Lou is the natural backup to land the exacta.

show5SkyrushML 5/2

Skyrush (5) comes in with a 75.31 rating and matches Souper Document's average speed figure of 54 — the numbers say these two are close on raw ability. Christian Maragh is a capable rider, and Silvino Ramirez keeps horses competitive at this level. At 5/2 on the morning line, the show price won't be pretty, but in a turf maiden where chaos can happen, Skyrush belongs in your trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:22 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

This maiden special weight on the dirt features a legitimate pace setup with several horses showing some prior work, and the TrackWiz model sees a real edge at the top — though two Juan Carlos Avila runners complicate the ticket.

win6Johnny HockeyML 7/2

Johnny Hockey (6) leads our ratings at 68.99 and posts an average speed figure of 55, tied for best in the field with Six Stitches. Ruben Silvera hops aboard for Antonio Arriaga, and the 7/2 morning line offers fair value for a horse the model clearly separates from the pack. In a maiden sprint on dirt, speed figures matter enormously, and Johnny Hockey brings both the best composite rating and strong raw pace numbers.

place1Six StitchesML 3/1

Six Stitches (1) is the natural backup here — 56.67 TrackWiz rating, an average speed of 55 matching Johnny Hockey's best, and a more prominent 3/1 price that says the public is paying attention. Jose C. Ferrer takes the mount for Juan Carlos Avila, who also runs The Musketeer in this spot, so connections clearly like their chances. The rail post in a 6-furlong dirt sprint isn't always ideal, but the speed figures justify the inclusion on any multi-race ticket.

show9The MusketeerML 4/1

The Musketeer (9) checks in at 55.0 on the TrackWiz scale — a hair below Six Stitches but in the same conversation. Charlie Marquez gets the call for the same Avila barn, and when a trainer doubles up in a maiden race, it's worth noting that both horses may be live. No prior speed figure is listed, so this is a projection play, but the rating and connections make the 4/1 morning line worth a look in the show slot or trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

TrackWiz is unlocking the first three races for every reader today, and the free selections give you a real taste of the card's character. Souper Document opens the afternoon at 9/5 on the morning line in a maiden claiming sprint on the turf — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating makes this one of the stronger numbers posted by any top pick on the card. Over in Race 2, Johnny Hockey steps into maiden special weight company on the dirt at 7/2, a price that offers some value if the TrackWiz model's pace projections hold. Then Race 3 brings Shes the Tall One back to the dirt at 2/1 — she pairs a near-identical rating (88.54) with morning line favoritism, suggesting the market agrees with our read.

One thread connecting these free picks: the dirt surface in Races 2 and 3 could play a factor in how aggressively these maidens are asked to run early. In this heat, horses that rate kindly and don't burn energy in contested early fractions tend to get the last word. Keep an eye on how the pace scenarios develop in Races 1 and 2 — they'll tell you a lot about whether the track is rewarding stalkers or wire-to-wire types as the card heats up.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:53 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming dirt sprint that sets up as a two-horse show at the top, with Shes the Tall One and Mo Probable separating themselves sharply from the rest of the field on TrackWiz ratings.

win3Shes the Tall OneML 2/1

Shes the Tall One (3) sits atop the TrackWiz model at 88.54 and draws a 2/1 morning line — the crowd and the algorithm are in agreement here. Vincent Cheminaud rides for Cathal A. Lynch, and the average speed figure of 53 is competitive in this maiden claiming tier. What makes this horse the play is the substantial ratings gap: the next closest competitor, Mo Probable, trails by nearly 8 points. In a field this clearly stratified, backing the top number at 2/1 is straightforward.

place6Mo ProbableML 5/2

Mo Probable (6) is the clear second choice by TrackWiz metrics at 80.58, and Luis R. Rivera Jr. hops aboard for Kelly J. Breen — a trainer who consistently puts up competitive horses at Monmouth. The 5/2 morning line suggests the market sees this as a two-horse race, and if Shes the Tall One hits traffic or misses the break, Mo Probable is ready to capitalize. Average speed of 52 keeps it honest without blowing the doors off.

show1Tiz AwesomeML 5/1

Tiz Awesome (1) is the third wheel in this analysis at 68.25 on the TrackWiz scale, a meaningful step below the top two but well clear of the rest of the field. Christian Maragh picks up the mount for Rory K. Huston, and the 5/1 morning line offers genuine value if the top pair has any issues. An average speed of 52 is workable, and in a short maiden claiming field, three deep is often where trifecta tickets live.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

2:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

An 11-horse claiming turf sprint with legitimate depth — speed figures are bunched in the mid-50s across the top half, making pace scenario and post position critical, but TrackWiz sees a clear top tier led by Identity Crisis.

win7Identity CrisisML 7/2

Identity Crisis (7) carries the field's top TrackWiz rating at 86.35 and comes in with a 22% career win rate — numbers that stand out in a claiming field where several horses are hitting single digits. Luis R. Rivera Jr. rides for Kelly J. Breen, whose horses consistently punch at their weight at Monmouth. The average speed of 56 is tied for tops among the main contenders, and the 7/2 morning line looks slightly generous given how the model breaks this down.

place11Thunder ChuckML 9/2

Thunder Chuck (11) checks in second on the TrackWiz scale at 80.03 with the best average speed figure in the field at 55, and the 18% career win rate shows this horse gets to the wire in front regularly. Carlos Eduardo Rojas takes the mount for Jorge Delgado, and the 9/2 price is workable for a place spot in what figures to be a competitive turf sprint. The outside post can be a factor on a short course, but Thunder Chuck's raw numbers demand inclusion.

show10My Man MoneyML 5/1

My Man Money (10) rates third in our model at 75.05 and also carries an 18% career win rate — same as Thunder Chuck, but with a slightly lower composite score. Jose C. Ferrer picks up the assignment for Wayne Potts, and the 5/1 morning line makes this a genuine value play in the show slot and exotics. Average speed of 54 is right there with the top horses, and a field this large almost always produces chaos somewhere, which benefits deep closers.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 5

2:48 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A starter allowance at a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt where We Ready dominates the TrackWiz model, but Tiger Moon's 21% career win percentage and pace-pressing style could set up a speed duel that scrambles the top.

win2We ReadyML 3/1

We Ready (2) rates at 87.08 — the highest TrackWiz number in the race and a substantial gap over third-place Tiger Moon at 71.61. Andrew Wolfsont takes the mount for Bernard G. Dunham, and the 3/1 morning line reflects a confident public assessment. The average speed of 53 is middle of the pack, but in a starter allowance at a distance this long, it's stamina and class that separate, and the model gives We Ready the clear edge there.

place6Tiger MoonML 5/2

Tiger Moon (6) is the most interesting play in the race beyond the top pick — a 21% career win rate is legitimately strong, the model rates the horse at 71.61, and Luis R. Rivera Jr. rides for Lindsay Schultz. An average speed of 54 ticks ahead of We Ready on raw numbers, so if pace sets up favorably, Tiger Moon could be the one finishing strongest at a mile and a sixteenth. At 5/2 on the morning line, the value is modest but the profile is real.

show3DenyingML 5/1

Denying (3) slots into the third position in our model at 67.97 and brings a 9% career win rate to a field where that's roughly average. Jose C. Ferrer rides for Wayne Potts, who also starts Amedeus Music in the same race — worth noting since Potts is clearly active here. An average speed of 53 keeps Denying competitive over a route, and the 5/1 morning line means the show price should pay decently even if the top two run the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

3:18 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Despite Pivotal Moment drawing a 2/1 morning line as the public's choice, the TrackWiz model tells a different story — Jetaros and Maximatch rate well above the chalk, making this allowance optional claiming turf sprint a potential upset spot.

win2JetarosML 5/2

Jetaros (2) leads the field on TrackWiz at 87.81 and backs it up with the numbers that matter — a 28% career win rate and an average speed of 57, both tops in this field. Jose Antonio Gomez rides for Teresa M. Pompay, who also starts Maximatch in the same race, giving connections two live chances. At 5/2 on the morning line, Jetaros is technically not the public favorite but rates as a strong overlay relative to what the model sees. This is the right horse at a fair price.

place5MaximatchML 4/1

Maximatch (5) is the stablemate to watch — a 76.07 TrackWiz rating, an average speed of 55, and a 4/1 price tag that could easily hit place money in a field that may fracture at the front end. Melissa Iorio takes the call for Pompay, and when a trainer has two live horses in an optional claimer, both deserve respect. The 8% career win rate is the one soft spot, but the raw speed and model score say this horse runs well in this company.

show8Pivotal MomentML 2/1

Pivotal Moment (8) carries the 2/1 morning line and the public's confidence, but our model rates the horse at just 59.0 — notably below Jetaros and Maximatch. That gap is worth understanding: Luis R. Rivera Jr. is a capable pilot for Miguel Clement, and the 56 average speed is competitive, but at 2/1, you're paying for a horse the algorithm doesn't see as dominant. Including Pivotal Moment in the show spot respects the public money while leaving the top of the ticket to better-rated horses.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

3:49 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong allowance optional claiming dirt sprint with genuine intrigue at the top — Dee's On Dow's elite 40% career win rate clashes with Foggy Note and Taqdeer in what shapes up as a pace-pressers' battle.

win5Dee's On DowML 9/2

Dee's On Dow (5) owns the most eye-catching stat on the card today: a 40% career win rate that dwarfs the competition in this field. The TrackWiz rating of 84.9 confirms this isn't a fluke — Chantal Sutherland rides for Jorge Delgado, and the 9/2 morning line actually looks like mild value given how dominant that win percentage is. Average speed of 55 fits the sprint distance well, and a horse that wins nearly half its starts deserves to be your top selection in any field.

place8Foggy NoteML 7/2

Foggy Note (8) rates at 74.46 on the TrackWiz scale with a 16% career win percentage — steady, not spectacular — and Jose Antonio Gomez picks up the mount for Kelly J. Breen. The average speed of 54 is honest for this level, and the 7/2 price is in the right neighborhood for a horse that should be running near the lead throughout. If Dee's On Dow draws the pace pressure, Foggy Note's ability to rate just off the speed sets up a dangerous late run.

show1TaqdeerML 4/1

Taqdeer (1) comes in with a 73.73 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win rate — numbers that make this horse competitive without standing out as the winner. Jose C. Ferrer rides for David Jacobson, and the 4/1 morning line puts Taqdeer right in the mix pricewise. An average speed of 55 matching Dee's On Dow means raw pace ability isn't the issue — it may come down to who gets the better trip in a small eight-horse field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

4:22 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden claiming turf sprint that features a loaded top tier — Maxpower and Natures Fury are separated by barely more than a point in the TrackWiz model, setting up a genuine photo at the wire.

win3MaxpowerML 5/2

Maxpower (3) leads the TrackWiz model at 87.81 and draws the services of Luis R. Rivera Jr. for Panagiotis A. Synnefias — a reliable combination at this meet. The 5/2 morning line is fair for the field's top-rated horse, and an average speed of 53 in a maiden turf sprint is workable at 5½ furlongs. What separates Maxpower is simply the model's top score, which in a maiden field full of uncertainty provides the most reliable edge we have to work with.

place4Natures FuryML 3/1

Natures Fury (4) trails Maxpower by just 1.19 rating points at 86.62 — this is essentially a coin flip at the top. Abner Adorno rides for John C. Servis, a trainer who knows how to have a horse ready to run first off a prep. The 3/1 morning line actually prices Natures Fury above Maxpower in the market, and with an average speed of 50, the horse may be a slower-developing type who finishes best on turf. Don't leave the 4 off your exotics.

show6Midnite Bust R OutML 7/2

Midnite Bust R Out (6) rates third in the model at 62.48 — a real step below the top pair but well clear of the rest of the field. Jose C. Ferrer rides for Sergio Rabadan, and the 7/2 morning line says the public sees this horse as a contender despite the ratings gap. An average speed of 52 is consistent with the field average, and in a 10-horse turf maiden where the two top selections might be fighting each other, Midnite Bust R Out is a logical beneficiary to land in the money.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Eight races, a warm Jersey Shore afternoon, and a turf course that could reward sharp early positioning — today's Monmouth card has all the ingredients for a profitable Sunday. Souper Document and Shes the Tall One are the headliners among the free picks, but the real value may be lurking in the premium half of the card. Subscribers get full pace breakdowns, exotic ticket structures, and every edge our model can surface. Don't fly blind — grab the full analysis at /pricing and make today count.

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