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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — June 21, 2026

June 21, 20268 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

This card ran on June 21, 2026.

Best bets at Monmouth Park, June 21, 2026

Race 11OlatzML 7/212:50 PM EDT

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It's a beautiful midsummer Sunday at Monmouth Park — clear skies, 76 degrees, and the kind of day that makes the Jersey Shore one of the best places to watch horse racing on the East Coast. Conditions are about as ideal as you'll get all season, and with a firm turf course and a fast dirt strip expected, speed figures from today's card should carry real weight going forward.

We've got an 8-race card to break down, featuring two stakes races — one on dirt, one on the turf sprint — plus a mix of maiden events and allowance company that gives bettors plenty of angles to work with. Three of those races are fully open with our free best bet picks, and the remaining five are locked in for TrackWiz subscribers with the full deep-dive treatment.

The headline storyline today is the dirt stakes in Race 3, where heavy favorite Inefficiency draws most of the early attention at 4/5 on the morning line. But as any experienced player knows, short-priced favorites in stakes races are exactly where the value can hide — if you know where to look.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf mile with first-timers and lightly raced types making this a classic projection game — TrackWiz analysis separates one standout from a muddled pack.

win1OlatzML 7/2

Olatz draws the rail and tops our TrackWiz ratings by a significant margin with an 86.35 — nearly 23 points clear of the next-best horse in the field. Trainer Lindsay Schultz saddles two in this race, but it's Olatz getting the preferred post and the services of Paco Lopez, one of the most reliable jockeys at Monmouth. In a maiden turf sprint where reading potential matters most, that rating edge is hard to ignore at a generous 7/2 morning line.

place4Time for YouML 5/1

Time for You (4) shows the field's best average speed figure at 56 under trainer John C. Servis, who knows how to have a first-starter ready. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's solid place value here from a horse that looks to have a legitimate pace edge on paper.

show3Just Tell AnneML 6/1

Just Tell Anne (3) checks in with a 58.33 TrackWiz rating and goes for trainer Raymond Handal at a wide-open 6/1. As a show selection she represents a reasonable hedge in exacta and trifecta tickets — she won't be the flashiest, but she's capable of running into the frame in a wide-open field like this.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong maiden claimer on the dirt has a clear class separator at the top, but two sneaky underliers could make the exotics worth playing deeper.

win2Waitin'onasunnydayML 3/2

Waitin'onasunnyday (2) is the dominant number in this field with an 89.27 TrackWiz rating — more than 11 points ahead of the next horse. Paco Lopez climbs aboard for trainer Carlos F. Martin, and this horse gets the inside post in a sprint where breaking cleanly is everything. Posted at just 3/2 on the morning line, this is the kind of heavy short-price play that makes sense in straight win tickets or as an anchor in your exactas.

place5Johnny Bay GoodeML 7/2

Johnny Bay Goode (5) comes in with the field's second-highest rating at 77.98 and has the best average speed figure in the race at 54 under trainer Joseph W. Mazza. Pedro L. Cotto, Jr. pilots from post 5 — a workable spot in a six-furlong sprint. At 7/2, there's genuine value here as the main pace rival to the favorite.

show6JeremiahtwentynineML 10/1

Jeremiahtwentynine (6) is the intriguing deep play at 10/1 for trainer Holly L. Harris, posting a respectable 68.71 rating with a 54 average speed. Chantal Sutherland has been a consistent presence in the Monmouth jock standings, and this could easily hit the board if the top two beat each other up on the front end.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our three free races today span both surfaces and include a maiden special weight on the turf (Race 1), a maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs on the dirt (Race 2), and that headlining dirt stakes in Race 3. On a clear, fast-track day like this, pace scenario becomes critical — especially on the dirt, where early speed has been rewarded at Monmouth this meet. In Race 2, Waitin'onasunnyday tops our free card at a juicy 3/2 morning line, projecting as a pace-presser with a strong TrackWiz rating of 89.27, the highest of our three free picks. Meanwhile, Olatz on the turf in Race 1 offers solid value at 7/2 for a maiden event where the field is still finding its footing.

Race 3 is the one everyone's circling — Inefficiency at 4/5 is the kind of chalk that makes you earn your money. Our rating of 82.04 on Inefficiency is respectable, but it's notably lower than some of the numbers we're seeing in the premium races. Take the free picks as your foundation today, but keep your bankroll flexible heading into the back half of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:49 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A small but loaded stakes field shapes up as a two-horse battle between a Chad C. Brown monster and a live longshot, with a wide-open exotics race lurking underneath.

win2InefficiencyML 4/5

Inefficiency (2) carries the most compelling profile in today's entire stakes card — a 66% career win rate paired with an 82.04 TrackWiz rating screams consistent class. The Chad C. Brown-trained runner goes at 4/5 morning line, and while that's a short price, the numbers back it up. Samuel Marin gets the call, and in a six-horse field at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, there's nowhere to hide if this horse is rolling.

place3EquusML 10/1

Equus (3) is a legit price play here at 10/1 for trainer Pompeyo Gomez — a 76.88 rating that actually slots him between the top two in raw numbers. He's won 19% of his career starts, and if Inefficiency meets any trouble or gets pressured by Dry Powder early, Equus has the figure to blow by the tiring leaders.

show1Dry PowderML 7/5

Dry Powder (1) draws the rail with Paco Lopez and posts a 74.68 rating with a 27% career win rate under trainer Chad Summers. As a show play at 7/5, the value is modest in isolation — but if you're playing trifectas, he's a logical part of the exotics structure as the most likely front-runner in this race.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

2:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

This maiden turf claimer features a standout top rating that separates cleanly from a muddled mid-field, setting up a potential top-heavy outcome with a value angle lurking in the place spot.

win5MaxpowerML 5/2

Maxpower (5) heads our TrackWiz selections with an impressive 87.81 rating — the highest mark in this field by nearly 10 points. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. rides for trainer Panagiotis A. Synnefias, and the horse posts a 53 average speed figure on a turf routing at 1 1/16 miles. Morning line 5/2 feels fair for a horse this far ahead of her rivals on our model.

place7Kool KayML 5/1

Kool Kay (7) is a strong secondary play at 5/1, posting a 78.34 rating with a 53 average speed for trainer Alisa Brooke Sarson. Jordano Tunon takes the mount, and in a loose maiden field, a horse this well-rated figures to be finishing up ground at the top of the lane. Excellent place value at that price.

show2Lady HathorML 3/1

Lady Hathor (2) gets Paco Lopez in the irons for trainer Juan Carlos Avila, who also runs Tarzan's Niece in this race — clear split-barn intentions. At 3/1 and a 56.67 rating, she's the stable's better-rated entry and represents a sensible show play or trifecta inclusion if you're trying to save against the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

2:52 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six furlongs on the dirt with an allowance optional claiming tag means these are genuine horses — and a fascinating pace setup features multiple speed types who could burn each other up late.

win3Guapo AgainML 5/2

Guapo Again (3) leads TrackWiz analysis with an 87.81 rating — easily the top mark in this field — and carries a 26% career win rate that's entirely respectable at this level. Trainer Michael V. Simone also runs Ball of Fire, but Guapo Again gets the stronger rider in Luis R. Rivera, Jr. and posts a 55 average speed figure. At 5/2, this is a confident play backed hard by the numbers.

place7Saint EphremML 3/1

Saint Ephrem (7) is the most interesting angle in the race — a 50% career win rate is elite at any level, and the 77.27 TrackWiz rating supports the idea that he's won a big chunk of what he's entered. Jose Antonio Gomez takes the mount for trainer Michael V. Pino, and at 3/1, this is a natural place selection to pair with Guapo Again.

show5Ball of FireML 10/1

Ball of Fire (5) shows a 74.01 rating and a 27% career win rate for trainer Michael V. Simone — the same barn as our top pick, which means Simone is throwing a pair at this race. Charlie Marquez rides at 10/1, and that price is worth attacking in your show position or as a trifecta part if you believe the barn has a legitimate double-barrel intention.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

3:24 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 fur · Turf

Five furlongs on the turf in a stakes setting is one of the most explosive formats in racing — and this seven-horse field is tightly bunched at the top with three horses separated by less than a point in TrackWiz ratings.

win1AlogonML 3/1

Alogon (1) tops our ratings at 87.08 with a 29% career win rate and an average speed of 58 for trainer Edward T. Allard — Forest Boyce in the saddle adds veteran savvy around a tight turf sprint. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is our clear top selection, sitting just a fraction above Speed Figures in the model. The inside draw can be an advantage in a short turf dash if he gets out cleanly.

place3Speed FiguresML 5/2

Speed Figures (3) is almost dead-even with the top pick at an 86.36 rating, posts the field's best average speed of 59, and owns a robust 44% career win rate for trainer Kelly J. Breen. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. rides, and at 5/2 there's a real argument this is the most talented horse in the field — she's an outstanding place play and a strong candidate to reverse the top two.

show2Souper QuestML 4/1

Souper Quest (2) brings a 75.95 rating and an average speed of 59 — matching Speed Figures on raw quickness — with a 31% career win rate for trainer Mark E. Casse. Sonny Leon rides from post 2, a workable spot in a five-furlong turf sprint. At 4/1, she rounds out the exotics nicely and has the tactical speed to be dangerous on a soft pace.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

3:58 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint at six furlongs on the dirt with an 8/1 overlay sitting on top of our ratings — this is the kind of race where the morning line misleads and the value hides in plain sight.

win3Music On the RunML 8/1

Music On the Run (3) is the TrackWiz top selection at a 79.79 rating despite being listed at 8/1 on the morning line — a significant overlay for our model. Angel Morales rides for trainer Juan Carlos Avila, and the horse posts a 33% career win rate that's among the field's best. In a tight six-furlong field, if Music On the Run gets a clean trip from post 3, this is a prime value opportunity.

place6Couches BurningML 5/2

Couches Burning (6) is the second-rated horse in the field at 73.54 for trainer Kelly J. Breen, who sends out Paco Lopez — one of the sharpest Monmouth jockeys on the grounds. A 33% career win rate and a 5/2 morning line make this a likely co-favorite at post time, and he's a strong place anchor to pair against the overlay in exactas.

show7Tough Guy TonyML 9/2

Tough Guy Tony (7) checks in at 68.43 with a field-leading 37% career win rate for trainer Robert E. Reid, Jr. — that win percentage is the best in the race and suggests a horse who knows how to finish. Jomar Torres rides at 9/2, and if you're building trifectas, this is a legitimate show play with a pedigree for hitting the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

4:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The finale is a maiden turf route that's wide open at the top — two horses are separated by less than half a point in our ratings, setting up a genuine battle and an interesting exotics structure.

win6The Magic SpeedML 8/1

The Magic Speed (6) leads TrackWiz analysis with a 79.79 rating for trainer Joseph W. Mazza, and Sonny Leon takes the mount from post 6 — a nice spot to stalk pace in a one-mile-plus turf route. The 8/1 morning line is a genuine surprise given this horse's model edge, making it our top value call of the race. When a horse leads the field on ratings and goes off at double-digits, that's a price worth attacking.

place1GuitaristML 9/5

Guitarist (1) sits just a fraction off the top at a 79.42 rating, draws the rail, and gets Paco Lopez — a combination that wins at Monmouth regularly. Trainer Jorge Delgado has the horse prepped for this turf distance, and at 9/5 morning line, the market clearly respects this one. He's our place selection because at that short price, win odds offer diminishing returns, but he's a must-use in all exotic tickets.

show7Market TimingML 3/1

Market Timing (7) brings Chad C. Brown's barn into the closer's spot — and Brown's first-off-the-trailer turf runners at routes deserve respect. Samuel Marin rides at 3/1, and the 56.67 TrackWiz rating places him third in the field. In a maiden route on the turf, Brown horses often improve sharply with race experience, making this a smart show play and a logical trifecta piece.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Bottom line: today's Monmouth card is headlined by a chalk-heavy dirt stakes and a pair of intriguing turf races that reward the sharp handicapper. Our top free plays are Waitin'onasunnyday in Race 2 and Olatz in Race 1, with Inefficiency the one to beat in Race 3 — though at 4/5, the price has to give you pause. Full pace projections, exotic ticket structures, and the complete 8-race breakdown are available now for TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there — let's find some winners.

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