Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley Race Course Picks & Predictions — October 28, 2026

October 28, 20268 racesAll Mahoning Valley Race Course picks

Wednesday afternoon at Mahoning Valley and conditions couldn't be much friendlier for handicappers — partly cloudy skies, 64°F, and a dirt surface that should be running true all day. Eight races on the card, all on the main track, all dirt. No surface switches to worry about, no weather chaos. Just clean, straight-ahead horse racing.

It's a claiming-heavy card top to bottom, which is typical for a weekday meet at Mahoning. The lone exception is Race 7, a Starter Allowance going a mile and 70 yards — that one figures to draw the sharpest field of the afternoon. Race 8 closes things out as a Ratings Handicap sprinting six furlongs, a format that always adds a wrinkle to pace projections. Plenty to dig into.

TrackWiz analysis covers all eight races. The first three are unlocked for every reader, with Races 4 through 8 available to subscribers. Here's how the day shapes up.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A clear top-heavy opener where the morning line favorite carries a TrackWiz rating nearly 20 points above the field — but a pair of live underneath horses could make the exotics interesting.

win2Lady JasperML 6/5

Lady Jasper is the standout in this field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 that towers over everyone else in the race. Her 24% career win rate is strong for a claiming route, and at 6/5 on the morning line, the market agrees she's the one to beat. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich and jockey Luis Raul Rivera form a recognizable barn-and-rider combo worth trusting at Mahoning Valley. She'll need to handle a one-mile dirt trip, but the overall profile screams class advantage.

place3Our Last SongML 4/1

Our Last Song opens at 4/1 and brings the best average speed figure in the race at 53, matching Kerri's Miracle but with a much healthier 18% career win rate backing it up. Trainer Timothy E. Hamm has her pointed right, and if Lady Jasper takes the race by the scruff of the neck early, there's plenty of room for this one to close into the place spot. She's the most logical alternative in a race where the favorite is a near-lock.

show6Electric MelodyML 5/2

Electric Melody is worth a spot in your exotics at 5/2, backed by the highest career win percentage in the field at 26% — a number that suggests she shows up when conditions suit her. Trainer Darragh Holden sends her out with Deshawn L. Parker aboard, a capable rider at this level. Her TrackWiz rating of 56.82 leaves her third in the field, which aligns neatly with a show projection.

Race 2

12:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse sprint with a clear speed-figure standout lurking at a juicy price, surrounded by a cluster of mid-tier closers that should set up the pace nicely.

win9Hightail FoxML 7/2

Hightail Fox is the one TrackWiz analysis points to here, and the 7/2 morning line feels like a gift given a field-best average speed figure of 56 — a full tick ahead of the next-best runners. Trainer Julie A. Pappada sends her out with Victor R. Fernandez, and while the 10% career win rate is modest, the raw speed numbers suggest she's capable of a big performance when the race sets up right. In a six-furlong sprint, pure speed off the break can be decisive, and this filly brings exactly that.

place2IpledthefifthML 5/1

Ipledthefifth catches the eye at 5/1 with a field-leading average speed of 55 among the non-favorites and a solid TrackWiz rating of 73.12. Trainer Cally Ann Herrington's runner carries a 20% career win rate, meaning she's no stranger to the winner's circle. She's a logical contender to be running at the end if Hightail Fox gets pressed early and the pace opens up.

show7Eileen's DesperadoML 6/1

Eileen's Desperado at 6/1 brings a rating of 69.62 that makes her third-best in this field by TrackWiz metrics, and her 14% career win rate is respectable for a claimer at this level. Trainer Loren Huepenbecker and David J. Haldar have combined on horses at this track before, and the six-furlong distance on dirt should suit her profile. She rounds out a logical exacta and trifecta underneath.

Race 3

1:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The morning line favorite isn't the top-rated horse here — All My Life goes off at 6/1 but owns the highest TrackWiz rating in a wide-open mile, setting up a potential value opportunity in the win pool.

win3All My LifeML 6/1

All My Life is our top selection despite a 6/1 morning line that undersells her credentials — she carries an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and a field-best 26% career win rate, numbers that suggest she's being slept on in the morning line. Fernando Salazar Becerra takes the mount for trainer Caryn Vecchio, and the one-mile dirt distance looks right for a runner with this kind of sustained form. If she gets a clean trip from post three, there's real value at that price.

place8Star EntertainerML 4/1

Star Entertainer at 4/1 is no slouch either, posting a 79.96 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 54 — second-best in the field. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich has Luis Raul Rivera back in the irons, the same pairing we like in Race 1, and this horse's speed figures suggest she can press the pace or sit just off it in a route. She's a strong place contender and worthy of exacta support underneath All My Life.

show9CoastertothemoonML 7/2

Coastertothemoon enters from post nine with Deshawn L. Parker aboard and a solid 70.05 TrackWiz rating to go with a 16% career win rate. Trainer Johanna Urieta's horse carries a 53 average speed figure, matching the upper tier of this field. With a wide post, she may be forced to take back early in the one-miler, which could set her up perfectly for a late run into the show spot.

The free portion of today's card gives you a strong cross-section of what Mahoning is serving up. Race 1 goes a full mile on the dirt, where Lady Jasper (6/5 morning line) carries an 89.71 TrackWiz rating — the top mark on the entire card. When your best-rated horse is also the distance-route specialist in Race 1, that's a strong tone-setter for the day. Race 2 flips the script with a six-furlong sprint, where Hightail Fox (7/2) rates out at 86.35 and figures to benefit from a pace scenario that should set up for closers. Race 3 brings another mile, and here's where the value lives — All My Life is posted at 6/1 on the morning line with an 82.71 rating, making this one of the more intriguing spots on the free portion of the card.

One angle worth watching across all three free races: the consistent mile-versus-sprint alternation early in the card suggests the track crew is prioritizing spacing out the starting gate work. On a good-weather day like today, pace figures tend to run honest, so don't automatically fade the front-runners in the route races.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This is a premium race — full analysis is available to TrackWiz subscribers — but the field of eleven is loaded with overlays and a top two separated by less than two rating points at the top.

win10Little ShanceML 4/1

Little Shance leads our TrackWiz analysis with an 84.61 rating and a 21% career win rate — two of the more reassuring numbers in this eleven-horse field. Ricardo Feliciano picks up the mount for trainer Jevon D. Crumley, and the combination of a 54 average speed figure and a strong career winning percentage makes this horse dangerous at 4/1. At six furlongs on the Mahoning Valley dirt, a front-runner or pace-pressing type with these figures can be hard to run down.

place2Sheltowees BlingML 6/1

Sheltowees Bling sits just a fraction behind at 82.71 and offers a compelling alternative at 6/1 morning line odds. Trainer Michael Evans II sends this horse out with Rolando Aragon, and a 17% career win rate shows she's competitive at this level. The slight edge in value over the top pick makes her an attractive place bet and a logical key horse in exacta wheels.

show4OrfanoML 5/1

Orfano at 5/1 is the third pick on our ticket and brings a 62.43 TrackWiz rating alongside a 12% career win rate with trainer Richard Estvanko directing the operation. Jose A. Bracho takes the mount and has been active on this card, suggesting strong barn confidence. In a field where several horses are clustered in the low-to-mid 50s range, Orfano's separation above that pack makes the show slot a reasonable projection.

Race 5

2:07 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

That's the Way dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this ten-horse mile, but the value play could be Indian Fever at 6/1 with the field's best career win percentage among contenders.

win2That's the WayML 5/2

That's the Way is a sharp top selection here, carrying an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that's well clear of the rest of the field — the kind of separation that demands respect in a claiming mile. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich sends this runner out with Luis Raul Rivera for the third time on today's card, a pairing that clearly has the barn's trust on a big day. A 22% career win rate at 5/2 morning line odds means you're not getting crushed on price, but you are getting the most credentialed horse in the race.

place5Indian FeverML 6/1

Indian Fever is the value angle here at 6/1 — that 28% career win rate is the highest in the entire field and tells you this horse knows how to get to the winner's circle. Trainer Timothy E. Hamm has Laureano Sosa aboard, and a 74.77 TrackWiz rating makes this the clear second-best horse by our metrics. If the pace gets honest early in the one-miler, Indian Fever figures to be running hard in the stretch.

show6Red Head KidML 12/1

Red Head Kid at 12/1 is a legitimate show-price overlay worth including in your trifecta tickets. The 54 average speed figure is the best in the field — a hidden gem that suggests this horse has been running faster than the crowd realizes. Trainer Ricardo Gonzalez sends out Deshawn L. Parker, and a 14% career win rate with that kind of raw speed makes Red Head Kid an intriguing multi-race exotic piece.

Race 6

2:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Florida Gal owns the top TrackWiz number in a nine-horse sprint at five and a half furlongs, but a trio of horses in the 70s create genuine pace-scenario intrigue beneath her.

win9Florida GalML 4/1

Florida Gal is the clear TrackWiz top choice with an 85.62 rating, a 55 average speed figure that ties for best in field, and a 16% career win rate that's respectable in a sprint claiming field. Victor R. Fernandez gets the mount for trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this is one of the better-priced top selections on the card. Five and a half furlongs suits a horse with her speed profile, and she should be tracking or leading through the early fractions.

place6Honor and ObayML 5/1

Honor and Obay at 5/1 checks in second by our ratings at 72.63 with a 54 average speed figure. Trainer Saul M. Morales keeps Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard, and while a 7% career win rate might give pause, the TrackWiz rating says this horse is performing at a level that outpaces that raw win number. In a sprint, she could stalk the pace and come with a run late.

show7I'll Stop TalkingML 8/1

I'll Stop Talking is a sneaky show play at 8/1 — she owns the best average speed figure in the entire field at 56, which is a meaningful edge over her 71.14 TrackWiz rating alone might suggest. Trainer Marianne Manning puts Guillermo Rodriguez in the irons, and with just a 10% career win rate she may not close the deal up front, but her raw speed makes her a threat to hit the board. Don't leave her off your trifecta tickets.

Race 7

3:03 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A starter allowance route that features a legitimate top-rated contender at an overlay price, alongside a pair of horses with elite career win percentages that keep this from being a one-horse race.

win3Puff'smagicdragonML 9/2

Puff'smagicdragon opens at 9/2 despite owning an 84.90 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by a clear margin — which immediately flags this as a potential value opportunity. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, who has runners firing all day on this card, hands the mount to Luis Raul Rivera, and the 20% career win rate confirms this horse is no stranger to the winner's circle. In a one-mile-and-70-yard starter allowance, the combination of a strong rating and a top rider could be the formula for a winning ticket.

place4General IssueML 9/5

General Issue is the morning line favorite at 9/5 and brings a 25% career win rate that ties for second-best in the field. Trainer Cirilo Gorostieta sends out Luis Alberto Batista, and a 67.11 TrackWiz rating puts this horse solidly in the mix even if our analysis believes Puff'smagicdragon has the slight edge on ratings. The win percentage and market support make General Issue a strong place horse and an obvious exacta partner.

show8Penny LoaferML 6/1

Penny Loafer at 6/1 is worth including in your trifecta, bringing a 29% career win rate that's the highest in the field — a sign that trainer Anthony Farrior's horse consistently converts when she fires. Her 63.57 TrackWiz rating is third-best, and Erik Barbaran is a capable rider to get her home. For exotic bettors, this is the kind of horse who sneaks onto the board at a price.

Race 8

3:31 PM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a ratings handicap with legitimate depth — three horses rated in the 78-84 range make this competitive, but the top two are separated by less than a point with a big price edge available on one of them.

win5SocialbutterflytamML 5/1

Socialbutterflytam is our TrackWiz top pick at 5/1, carrying an 84.17 rating and a remarkable 41% career win rate — the highest on the entire day's card by a wide margin. Trainer William D. Cowans puts Jose A. Bracho on board, and a 54 average speed figure ties for second-best in this field. The price is generous given those credentials, and the career win percentage alone tells you this horse has elite closing ability when things set up right.

place1Ocean WindowsML 4/1

Ocean Windows at 4/1 is just a fraction behind at 83.42, boasting a 36% career win rate that's extraordinary at this level — second only to the win pick in the field. Trainer Kathy Jarvis hands the mount to Santiago Gonzalez, and a 55 average speed figure is the best in the race outright. If the pace sets up for a presser, Ocean Windows could easily reverse the order of finish over the top selection, so boxing these two in exactas makes plenty of sense.

show2Creator of MagicML 8/1

Creator of Magic at 8/1 brings a field-best 37% career win rate alongside a 78.47 TrackWiz rating, making this the most obvious overlay on the board in Race 8. Trainer Eric R. Reed sends out Charle Oliveros in what figures to be a pace-honest six-furlong handicap, and a horse that wins 37% of its starts is dangerous at any price — let alone 8/1. Round out your trifecta with this one and let the top two horses sort it out.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Eight dirt races, good weather, and a card that rewards preparation over guesswork. Lady Jasper is the headline act, but All My Life at 6/1 in Race 3 is the kind of value play that makes a Wednesday afternoon worth your attention. For the complete picture — pace projections, exotic ticket breakdowns, and picks on all five premium races — subscribers have everything they need waiting in the full TrackWiz analysis. Good luck at the windows.

← All Mahoning Valley Race Course picks & predictions

Best Bets

Race 1↗

Race 2↗

Race 3↗

Full Card Analysis

Get the Full Card Analysis

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3