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Louisiana Downs Picks & Predictions — September 28, 2026

September 28, 20267 racesAll Louisiana Downs picks

It's a warm Monday afternoon at Louisiana Downs — clear skies and 91°F on the thermometer, which means the turf courses should be running firm and fast. That's important context for today's card, because three of the seven races are scheduled on the grass, giving turf specialists a real chance to shine.

Seven races spread across dirt and turf, with conditions ranging from Maiden Claiming to Allowance company. There's something here for every type of bettor — short sprints, route distances, and a mix of claiming and open company. TrackWiz analysis has rated three of today's top picks at 87 or better, which signals a solid foundation for multi-race wagers if you're inclined to build tickets.

We've got three free races to get you started — Races 1, 2, and 3 — all visible right now. The rest of the card is unlocked for TrackWiz subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden claimer on the turf with a dozen first-time and lightly-raced runners — TrackWiz ratings separate a clear top three from the rest of a chaotic field.

win8Bouxjee RouxML 7/2

Bouxjee Roux tops our TrackWiz ratings at 71.15 in a field where most rivals are bunched well below 55, and the 7/2 morning line represents solid overlay potential for the top-rated horse. Trainer Jervon Broussard sends her out with jockey Rey Williams, a pairing that commands attention in a maiden field lacking a clear standout on paper. Her average speed figure of 53 ties for best in the field and, critically, she's one of only a few runners who can produce that number on turf. In a race where most horses are unproven, her combination of rating edge and speed figure consistency makes her the most trustworthy option.

place3La Chica de OroML 20/1

La Chica de Oro is the TrackWiz longshot play of this race — a 20/1 shot on the morning line who carries a 62.29 rating, second-best in the field, and that gap is hard to ignore at that price. Trainer Rafael Gomez places her in a spot where her profile fits the surface, and the five-furlong turf sprint sets up well for a forward-moving type. At those odds, she's a must-use in exactas and trifectas if you're looking to leverage value.

show9Hermosa ItalianaML 9/2

Hermosa Italiana checks in with a 54.17 TrackWiz rating — third in this field — and while she lacks a posted average speed figure, trainer Juan Munoz Cano has placed her thoughtfully. At 9/2 on the morning line, she offers legitimate price value for exotic plays, and her rating alone puts her clearly ahead of the mid-field cluster. She's a safe show-position hedge in a maiden field where anything can happen first time over the turf.

Race 2

9:03 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A compact six-and-a-half furlong dirt claiming race headlined by two elite-rated rivals at the top of the TrackWiz board — Blueberry Eyes and Princess Celine are separated by less than a point, setting up a potential duel between the two best horses in the field.

win1Blueberry EyesML 3/2

Blueberry Eyes earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.77, edging Princess Celine by less than a point, but her 20% career win rate adds genuine credibility to that number — she's not just well-rated, she's actually converted in the past. Trainer Jervon Broussard saddles her for jockey Rey Williams, a barn that knows this horse well, and a 3/2 morning line suggests the market agrees with our top-line view. Her average speed figure of 53 is right in the mix, and at 6.5 furlongs on dirt, pace scenario likely favors horses with her kind of tactical speed. Hard to knock the top choice here.

place5Princess CelineML 3/1

Princess Celine is nearly inseparable from the top pick on ratings — 87.08 to 87.77 — and her 25% career win rate is actually the second-best in the field, showing she's a live threat to beat this field outright rather than just hit the board. Carlos Lozada takes the mount at 3/1 on the morning line, and that kind of live odds on a horse this close to the top rated makes her a strong exacta-leg partner. Don't let the place designation fool you — she can absolutely win this.

show3Lady AuthenticML 2/1

Lady Authentic carries a 74.04 TrackWiz rating — a clear step below the top two but noticeably ahead of the rest — and a 26% career win rate that is the best in this entire field. Trainer Jervon Broussard has both the win pick and this runner in the race, showing dual confidence in the barn's depth today. Her average speed figure of 54 is actually the top mark in the field, suggesting she's capable of a peak-performance effort. Include her underneath in trifectas as a safe and statistically-backed show contender.

Race 3

9:31 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile turf claiming race with a genuine pace question — the top two TrackWiz-rated horses are separated by just 2.5 points, and the 2/1 morning-line shot Run Bambi Run lands well below both on ratings despite relatively favorable odds.

win1Cajun AcesML 9/5

Cajun Aces holds the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.83, and while a 9/5 morning line makes her no overlay, her rating advantage is clear and consistent. Trainer Melton Wilson puts Emanuel Nieves aboard, and the pair have a horse rated nearly three points clear of the next rival in a claiming mile on turf. Her average speed figure of 53 is reliable, and at a mile she should have enough ground to find her best stride. In a race where the pace question is legitimate, the top-rated horse from the rail gets our top call.

place3Clearly BellaML 7/2

Clearly Bella's 86.35 TrackWiz rating makes her the most dangerous threat to Cajun Aces, and trainer Shane Wilson puts Rey Williams on board at 7/2 — a price that represents decent value on the second-best horse in the field. Her 15% career win rate is solid for a claiming route, and the one-mile turf setup suits a horse of her profile. In exactas, she's the natural partner under the top pick.

show2Lil Ashley B.ML 6/1

Lil Ashley B. at 6/1 is the value component of this ticket — her 70.76 TrackWiz rating clearly separates her from the bottom half of the field, and her 16% career win rate suggests she knows how to hit the board when the conditions suit. Carlos Lozada picks up the mount for trainer Joseph M. Foster, and a one-mile turf route may suit a horse that likes to close from off the pace. At 6/1 in the show hole she rounds out a solid trifecta combination.

The free half of today's card is genuinely compelling. Bouxjee Roux opens the day in a 5-furlong turf sprint against maiden claimers — a short, sharp race where early speed on firm going can be decisive. Then Blueberry Eyes comes in as the morning-line chalk at 3/2 in a 6½-furlong dirt claimer with a TrackWiz rating of 87.77, suggesting this one has legitimate top-end ability for the level. The free card closes with Cajun Aces, who gets a full mile on the turf at 9/5 and earns the highest rating of the three free picks at 88.83 — making the Race 3 mile the marquee free play of the afternoon.

One angle worth tracking across all three free races: the clear, firm conditions favor horses who've shown they can handle fast footing without needing a soft cushion to run their race. Keep that in mind as you dig into the full lines.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:59 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Eternal Mischief stands out as a clear class edge on TrackWiz ratings in this 5.5-furlong dirt claimer, but two live alternatives lurk at big prices for those looking to beat the short-priced morning-line favorite.

win8Eternal MischiefML 8/5

Eternal Mischief dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 86.88 — more than 13 points clear of her nearest rival — and the 8/5 morning line is steep but defensible given that kind of margin. Lane J. Luzzi gets the call for trainer Pedro Rodriguez-Torres, and the barn has a feel for placing horses in winning spots. Her average speed figure of 54 is tied for best in the field, and over 5.5 furlongs on dirt her tactical ability is likely to put her right in contention early. She's the play, even at chalk prices.

place2Deal Me TripsML 12/1

Deal Me Trips opens at 12/1 on the morning line but posts a 73.96 TrackWiz rating — the second-highest in the field by a healthy margin, behind only Eternal Mischief. A 16% career win rate shows she's a legitimate runner who can find the winner's circle, and if the favorite hits any traffic at all, she's positioned to capitalize. Isaac Castillo is a capable rider in this spot, and the value angle here is real for exacta players willing to go against the chalk.

show4Royal HopeML 6/1

Royal Hope comes in with a 72.17 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — and a 15% career win rate that backs up the number with real-world results. Emanuel Nieves takes the mount for trainer Henry Flugence, and at 6/1 she offers some middle-ground pricing between the longshot and the favorite. Her average speed figure of 54 matches the top horses in the field, meaning she can run with this group on her best day. A solid show ticket and trifecta inclusion.

Race 5

10:27 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

An allowance mile on the turf featuring a wide range of profiles — from first-off-the-bench types to seasoned veterans with strong win percentages — with Nobel Gary looming as a dominant top choice but legitimate alternatives lurking at double-digit odds.

win5Nobel GaryML 2/1

Nobel Gary is the cream of this allowance field, posting an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that stands more than 12 points clear of the next rival. Isaac Castillo picks up the mount for trainer Jonathan Wong at 2/1 on the morning line, and a horse this well-rated at this price in an allowance isn't being asked to beat the world. His 11% career win rate is modest, but the rating suggests his best recent form is elite, and the turf mile is a distance that rewards horses with sustained pace tolerance. He's our top pick and the anchor of any exotic play.

place8BigwrigdudeML 9/2

Bigwrigdude brings a 76.56 TrackWiz rating and, critically, a 27% career win rate — one of the highest in this field — which tells you this horse finds ways to win when conditions align. Kevin Roman has the mount for trainer Jonas Gibson at 9/2 on the morning line, making him one of the better-priced legitimate contenders in a wide-open allowance field. His average speed figure of 54 is among the best in the race, and on turf at a mile he should be dangerous throughout. Strong play as the main exacta partner under Nobel Gary.

show1Fast ConnectionML 9/5

Fast Connection opens at 9/5 on the morning line — suggesting the track may see her as the morning-line co-favorite — but our TrackWiz analysis puts her third in the field at 66.43, making her a likely show or place finisher rather than the win lock the odds suggest. Rey Williams rides for trainer Joseph M. Foster, and her average speed figure of 54 is competitive. For players willing to use the morning-line favorite in the show slot, she's a logical hedge that keeps the trifecta alive.

Race 6

10:55 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A first-time-starter-heavy maiden special weight at five furlongs on dirt — with most horses showing no race history to evaluate, the separation in this field comes from workout times and early TrackWiz profiling, making Fourforfortyfour the clear top choice on ratings.

win7FourforfortyfourML 8/5

Fourforfortyfour leads the field with a 59.0 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in a race where separation is hard to come by — and an average speed figure of 54, tied for best in the field. Trainer Tristan Ashford hands the reins to Lane J. Luzzi, and the 8/5 morning line confirms the market agrees with our assessment. In a maiden field where most horses have no career starts to reference, this horse's ability to post a meaningful speed figure in preparation gives a real leg up. Tough to beat the top-rated, top-speed-figured runner in a maiden debut race.

place3Standard IssueML 4/1

Standard Issue posts a 55.0 TrackWiz rating — second in this field — and is one of only two runners with a measurable average speed figure (53), suggesting some actual form to evaluate under trainer Danny Pish. Emanuel Nieves takes the mount at a 4/1 morning line, and in a race where most rivals are pure unknowns, having a baseline speed figure matters. A logical place ticket and an easy exacta inclusion.

show4Serious BeastML 5/1

Serious Beast lands at 53.33 on the TrackWiz scale — third in the field — and while no speed figure is available, trainer Ernie Witt II places him at 5/1, suggesting the connections believe he's ready to fire a debut effort. Rey Williams handles the riding duties, and at that morning-line price this horse offers a bit of value compared to the shorter-priced top two. He's a reasonable show ticket in a wide-open debut field where third place is very much in play.

Race 7

11:23 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A 12-horse turf route at 7.5 furlongs where the public may overlook Bellastone Country — the top-rated horse on TrackWiz — in favor of the shorter-priced morning-line favorite, setting up a potential value opportunity if you follow the numbers.

win5Bellastone CountryML 6/1

Bellastone Country tops our TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 in a 12-horse field, yet opens at 6/1 on the morning line — a significant disconnect from her rating advantage. Trainer Juan Munoz Cano has Elio J. Barrera in the irons, and this barn has shown an ability to position horses for peak efforts on turf. Her average speed figure of 54 leads the field and, over 7.5 furlongs of grass, there's plenty of room for a quality closer or mid-pack stalker to organize a winning run. The value case here is compelling — best-rated horse at the third-best morning-line price.

place2Hello Come InML 7/5

Hello Come In is the morning-line favorite at 7/5, and a 68.0 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — supports her status as a legitimate contender, but not necessarily the lock the odds imply. Isaac Castillo rides for trainer Shane Wilson, and a 16% career win rate is respectable. At 7/5, she's fine to use in exotics but fading her slightly in favor of the better-priced top pick makes handicapping sense — a place finish feels like the floor for this horse.

show1Mr. Brad's CowboyML 10/1

Mr. Brad's Cowboy opens at 10/1 and carries a 67.77 TrackWiz rating — just below Hello Come In and well above the rest of the field — making him the clearest overlay in the race. Trainer Jorge Lara puts Rey Williams up, and while a 5% career win rate isn't inspiring, his rating suggests he's been running well and perhaps just missing. Over 7.5 furlongs on turf, there's enough ground for him to find his stride late and hit the board at a price that would make trifecta players very happy.

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Today's best free plays center on Cajun Aces in Race 3 as the top-rated pick on the card's open half, with Blueberry Eyes in Race 2 close behind. Subscribers have four more races to work with, including what could be the best value ticket of the day in Race 7. Good luck at the windows — let's make a Monday count.

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