Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs Picks & Predictions — June 22, 2026

Monday, June 22, 20267 racesLouisiana Downs

It's a hot Monday at Louisiana Downs — 92°F under partly cloudy skies — and the track is rolling out a seven-race card split evenly between turf and dirt. That combination of summer heat and a dual-surface card makes reading conditions today a little more nuanced than usual, so buckle up.

We've got a nice blend of Claiming and Allowance action, capped off by a Maiden Claiming mile on the turf to close the card. TrackWiz analysis has identified standout angles in several of these races, including a pair of morning-line favorites we're comfortable siding with and at least one overlay worth targeting in the pari-mutuel pools.

Three races are fully open to all readers today. The remaining four require a premium subscription — and trust us, the deeper dives on those are where the real value lives.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A claiming mile on the turf with a heavy favorite installed at even money, but several mid-price contenders have the numbers to make this more competitive than the morning line suggests.

win3Nobel GaryML EVN

Nobel Gary is the clear class standout here, posting a TrackWiz rating of 90 — more than 23 points clear of the second-rated horse in the field. Despite a career win percentage of just 8%, that number may undersell his form given the level he's been running at, and trainer Jonathan Wong has him pointed for this spot. His average speed figure of 54 ties the best in the field, and at even money the market agrees he's the one to beat on this turf mile.

place5Mohaymen HolidayML 7/2

Mohaymen Holiday draws post 5 with a solid 66.97 rating and an average speed figure of 54, matching the top figures in the race. Trainer Jayde J. Gelner sends this one out at 7/2 on the morning line, a price that reflects legitimate second-tier status rather than a throw-in. Santos Rivera gets the call in the irons, and this horse projects as a stalker type who can pick up pieces when the speed gets sorted out.

show9Gold PrizeML 5/1

Gold Prize at 5/1 brings a TrackWiz rating of 53.2 — respectable in this field — and slots in as a decent exotics anchor for the show slot. Trainer Karen E. Jacks has found the right spot here, and Juan P. Vargas is a capable handler who can nurse a horse into the money on a turf route. The career win percentage is a modest 4%, so outright winning is a stretch, but hitting the board in a nine-horse field at this price has appeal.

Race 2

9:33 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite goes off at 3/5 but actually trails the top-rated horse in the field — a potential overlay situation worth watching closely in this six-furlong dirt claimer.

win1JawdropperML 5/1

Jawdropper is our top selection despite being second-best on the morning line at 5/1, and that's where the value lives. With a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 — nearly five points higher than the 3/5 favorite Blissit — this horse is better than her odds suggest heading into a six-furlong dirt sprint. Carlos Lozada takes the mount for trainer Ronnie E. Cravens III, and at 5/1 against a short-priced favorite, Jawdropper represents the best risk-reward in the race.

place2BlissitML 3/5

Blissit comes in as the heavy public favorite at 3/5 with a career win percentage of 25% — the strongest winning record in the field — and a rating of 79.3 that demands respect. Trainer Joseph M. Foster has a live one here, and Elio J. Barrera is a capable pilot in these shorter sprints. Even if Jawdropper has the edge on raw ratings, Blissit's consistency means she's an excellent place-ticket anchor.

show7Call SadieML 4/1

Call Sadie at 4/1 posts a 66.81 TrackWiz rating and shows an average speed of 53, putting her firmly in the mix for a minor share. Trainer Renay Borel spots her favorably, and Juan P. Vargas — one of the more active riders on this card — knows how to place a horse late in a sprint. She's a natural show play in a three-horse exacta/trifecta structure.

Race 3

10:01 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

An allowance test on the turf at an unusual 7.5 furlongs features a pair of well-rated horses at short prices, setting up a potential pace battle that could leave room for a closer to sneak in.

win7AntiphonML 3/2

Antiphon is the class of this field with a commanding 89.27 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in the race — and goes postward at 3/2 on the morning line. Trainer Shane Wilson saddles this one and pairs with Harry Hernandez, a workmanlike combo at Louisiana Downs. With an average speed figure of 54 and a 16% career win percentage, Antiphon should handle the 7.5-furlong turf distance well and is our strongest play of the first three races.

place2Lord LeroyML 8/5

Lord Leroy is a fascinating figure in this field — a 100% career win percentage (albeit in a small sample) with a rating of 59 and the best average speed in the race at 55. Trainer Denise Schmidt sends him out at 8/5 on the morning line, suggesting real confidence, and Juan P. Vargas climbs aboard. He's worth using underneath Antiphon in exactas given the raw speed edge.

show3Friendly HintML 10/1

Friendly Hint offers sneaky value at 10/1 with a rating of 58.75 that slots him just behind Lord Leroy among the contenders. Carlos Lozada picks up the mount for trainer Henry Ray Dunn, and while the 5% career win rate isn't inspiring, the 53 average speed is competitive at this level. At double-digit odds, he's an affordable show option and a trifecta fill-in worth a few tickets.

The free portion of today's card spans three races across both surfaces and gives you a solid sample of what's in store. Nobel Gary draws our attention first — an even-money morning-line horse on the turf mile who fits the conditions and the class level cleanly. On the dirt, Jawdropper opens at 5/1 in a 6-furlong Claiming sprint, which is exactly the kind of price we love when our ratings back it up — and at 84.17, there's real meat on that bone. Antiphon rounds out the free picks at 3/2 in a 7½-furlong Allowance on the turf, a slight step up in class that our numbers suggest she can handle.

One theme connecting today's free races: the turf looks like where the sharper money belongs on a partly cloudy afternoon at this temperature. Turf routing on a warm, dry Louisiana day tends to favor horses with tactical speed and clean early position — keep that in mind as you watch the morning-line odds move toward post time.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:29 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

This is a premium-content race — a seven-furlong dirt claimer with a clear top two on paper, headlined by a dominant favorite who has the highest rating on the entire card through four races.

win6Where's Aunt JML 3/2

Where's Aunt J is a standout on the TrackWiz model with an 89.27 rating and the best average speed figure in the field at 55. She's installed as the 3/2 morning-line choice for trainer Jonas Gibson, with Alexander Castillo piloting, and a 19% career win percentage adds further credibility to her form. At 7 furlongs on dirt, her pace figures suggest she can dictate or sit just off the lead and have plenty left in the stretch.

place5Jaydyn CatML 3/1

Jaydyn Cat is the clear second pick at 3/1 with a 76.95 rating and a speed figure of 54, which puts him within striking distance of the favorite. Trainer Jorge Lara sends him out with Rey Williams up, and a 13% career win percentage on a horse going this competitive suggests he knows the winner's circle. He's the natural exacta partner with Where's Aunt J and projects to be involved in the stretch run.

show7Golden CityML 5/2

Golden City at 5/2 posts a 62.27 rating with a 53 average speed and a 20% career win rate — that last number is notably strong for a show play. Trainer Ronnie E. Cravens III is active and sharp on this card, and Emanuel Nieves gets the call. Golden City may not have the rating to overtake the top two, but the win percentage tells you this horse finishes — exactly what you want in a show play or trifecta closer.

Race 5

10:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A ten-horse turf mile featuring a clear TrackWiz favorite well clear of the field on ratings, but some interesting mid-price horses add enough uncertainty to make the exotics worth building out.

win7Got StripesML 9/5

Got Stripes earns an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — well ahead of the field — and is installed at a reasonable 9/5 on the morning line. Trainer Alexis Claire sends out this horse with Isaac Castillo, who gets a live mount on what looks like the class of the field. The average speed figure of 54 is the joint-best in the race, and an 11% career win percentage on a competitive horse carrying this kind of rating suggests a horse that has been running against tougher competition.

place2Friday Night FeverML 9/2

Friday Night Fever comes in at 9/2 with a 79.06 rating — the second-best mark in the field — making her an outstanding value underneath Got Stripes in exactas. Carlos Lozada is one of the more versatile riders on this card, and trainer Ronnie E. Cravens III is sending multiple horses into this race, suggesting strong barn form. Her 53 average speed and 8% win rate on turf routes makes her a solid each-way play.

show8QuaternionML 10/1

Quaternion is the intriguing longshot alternative at 10/1 with a 60.49 rating, representing solid value in the exotics. Rey Williams takes the mount for Jorge Lara — the same trainer-jockey combo running Jaydyn Cat in Race 4 — and the 51 average speed is a tick below the frontrunners but workable on a turf surface where pace can be tricky. At double-digit morning-line odds, slotting Quaternion into your show bets and trifecta tickets provides excellent return on a small investment.

Race 6

11:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Six and a half furlongs on dirt with a genuine overlay at the top — the highest-rated horse in the field is not the morning-line favorite, creating an interesting value dynamic across the board.

win6Mr. Brad's CowboyML 5/1

Mr. Brad's Cowboy is the TrackWiz top pick with an 84.17 rating, the best in the field, yet he's posted at 5/1 on the morning line — not the shortest price in the race. Rey Williams takes the call for trainer Jorge Lara, the same barn that runs two others on this card, suggesting Lara is in good form. An average speed figure of 54 — highest in the field — backs up the rating, and at 5/1 this looks like a genuine overlay worth attacking at the win window.

place8QuikonthetriggerML 5/2

Quikonthetrigger at 5/2 carries a 73.43 rating and an average speed of 53, making her a legitimate second contender behind Mr. Brad's Cowboy. Trainer Donald Melancon doubles up in this race with Code of Parapluie, but Quikonthetrigger has the higher rating of the two and Alexander Castillo is a capable jockey in these dirt sprints. She fits naturally as the place half of an exacta with the top pick.

show5Silent BreezeML 4/1

Silent Breeze posts a 70.13 rating with a 53 average speed and goes off at 4/1 for trainer Robertino Diodoro, who is always worth noting when he aims at a claiming race — Diodoro has a reputation for placing horses well. Emanuel Nieves picks up the mount, and a 7% career win percentage is modest, but the rating says this horse belongs in the conversation for minor money. She rounds out the trifecta nicely.

Race 7

11:53 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A ten-horse maiden claiming mile on the turf is always a puzzle — nobody in the field has ever won a race — but the TrackWiz ratings reveal a pretty decisive hierarchy at the top.

win1JettiesML 8/5

Jetties tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field at 80.84, installed as the 8/5 morning-line choice for trainer Jonathan Wong — the same barn running Mo's Little Darlin in this very race. Lane J. Luzzi gets the assignment aboard Jetties, and while none of these horses have a career win to their name, a rating of 80.84 in a maiden field is a significant edge. The 52 average speed is competitive for the turf mile distance.

place5Mo's Little DarlinML EVN

Mo's Little Darlin is the co-favorite at even money with a 60.0 rating — notably lower than stablemate Jetties, but still well clear of the rest of the field. Isaac Castillo takes the mount for trainer Jonathan Wong, and the 54 average speed is the best of any horse in the race, which matters on a one-mile turf oval where pace economy counts. If Jetties has any issue at all, Wong's second string could easily pick up the slack.

show7BalitrixML 10/1

Balitrix at 10/1 has the third-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 46.68 and posts a 52 average speed that puts her in the competitive middle tier. Trainer Jarvis Vincent sends her out with Misael Alvarez up, and in a ten-horse maiden field where the top two are closely connected and could potentially take each other out of their best form, having a third live horse at double-digit odds makes exotics sense. She's the best option to complete your trifecta at a price.

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Bottom line: Nobel Gary, Jawdropper, and Antiphon headline today's free plays at Louisiana Downs — three well-supported selections across a card that rewards attention to surface and pace. For the full picture, including pace projections, exotic tickets, and analysis of Races 4–7, it's all waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always — bet smart, not scared.

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