Unlock the other 7 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.

The winner is in our top 4 picks 75% of the time, across 17 tracks.

Daily Picks

Laurel Park Picks & Predictions — October 4, 2026

October 4, 202610 racesAll Laurel Park picks

It's a wet one at Laurel Park on Sunday, October 4th. With rain falling and temperatures hovering at 64°F, the dirt surface figures to be playing on the heavy side all afternoon — and that changes everything. Speed horses that love a sealed track get a boost, closers who need firm footing face a tougher road, and surface management becomes as important as raw ability today.

We've got a full 10-race card to dig into, mixing Maiden Claiming openers with Allowance and Starter Optional Claiming tests deeper in the card. The late races carry the most intrigue — particularly Race 8, which is carded for turf. Keep an eye on any surface switch announcements from the track; if that one gets moved to the sloppy main track, the entire complexion of the race changes.

Three races are fully unlocked today for all TrackWiz readers, with premium subscribers getting the complete 10-race breakdown. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:00 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Two horses separate themselves from the field on paper in this Starter Optional Claiming mile, making the top of the ticket fairly clear — the real question is whether the chalk can be caught.

win3El de LarryML 8/5

El de Larry tops our TrackWiz ratings at 89.12 and carries a 22% career win rate — both figures leading this field. The 8/5 morning line suggests the market agrees, but the underlying numbers back the price. Trainer W. Robert Bailes puts him on a one-mile dirt trip that suits a horse with his profile, and jockey Mychel J. Sanchez should keep him in a comfortable spot off the pace duel that figures to develop up front.

place2Sky's Not FallingML 2/1

Sky's Not Falling is the other legitimate contender here, posting an 88 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win clip. Morning line favorite status at 2/1 under Horacio Karamanos reflects legitimate form, and this horse's average speed figure is actually the best in the field at 55. If El de Larry hits any trouble, Sky's Not Falling is poised to capitalize.

show6Mo RewardsML 5/1

Mo Rewards at 5/1 is the value inclusion in the exotics, carrying a 71.15 rating and a 19% career win percentage — respectable numbers in a field where several runners grade out well below that threshold. Trainer Jamie Ness also saddles Bodecream in this race, which signals confidence in the barn's stable overall. Mo Rewards represents a solid hedge in trifecta construction.

Race 2

4:28 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden claiming mile where none of these horses have broken their maiden yet, but there's a clear class split — Love Yourself grades significantly above the rest of the field and deserves heavy respect.

win5Love YourselfML 6/5

Love Yourself carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.71 and draws the 6/5 morning line to match. Trainer Niall Saville sends this horse out with jockey Jeiron Barbosa, a capable pilot who can handle a hot pace scenario and rate if needed over the one-mile dirt trip. In a maiden field where everyone is still looking for that first win, this level of rating separation — nearly 19 points clear of the second choice — is significant and hard to ignore.

place6NapisonmyagendaML 9/5

Napisonmyagenda rates second in the field at 71.02 and actually posts the best average speed figure of any runner here at 55. Trainer Timothy L. Keefe sends this horse out with Forest Boyce aboard at a 9/5 morning line, suggesting the connections believe they have a live runner. If Love Yourself underperforms, this is the most logical alternative to hit the board.

show2Nantucket LoveML 6/1

Nantucket Love is an interesting third piece at 6/1, posting a 51.67 rating and matching Napisonmyagenda with an average speed figure of 54. Trainer W. Robert Bailes has a good feel for this circuit, and Taylor Kingsley gets the call from the rail-adjacent post. At the price, Nantucket Love is a useful show inclusion in trifectas without breaking the bank.

Race 3

4:56 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six-furlong maiden sprint at Laurel with a pair of John J. Robb trainees splitting the top two spots in the ratings — barn familiarity with the conditions could play a big role in how this unfolds.

win6Paris by NightML 9/5

Paris by Night leads all runners with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and goes postward at a very fair 9/5 morning line with jockey Jeiron Barbosa in the irons. The notable wrinkle here is that trainer John J. Robb also saddles Pelican Pier, our place pick — so the barn has two bullets in this race and clearly has a read on the conditions. Paris by Night's lower average speed figure of 52 compared to some rivals isn't alarming in a maiden sprint where pace shape and position matter as much as raw figures.

place3Pelican PierML 5/2

Pelican Pier is the second Robb trainee in the race and grades out at 79.67, nearly 25 points ahead of the next cluster of horses. At 5/2 on the morning line with Xavier Perez up, this is the kind of 'stable mate' situation where each horse helps the other — they likely have different running styles and won't hurt each other in the pace scenario. Pelican Pier's 54 average speed figure is the best among the leading contenders.

show2Brown Sugar BettyML 4/1

Brown Sugar Betty at 4/1 with Jaime Rodriguez aboard rates at an even 55 and represents the next logical step down from the top pair. Trainer Keri Brion is a solid regional conditioner who knows how to place horses, and the 4/1 morning line suggests the market sees this as a legitimate contender. In a three-horse race with a value price, Brown Sugar Betty earns a spot in the show slot of any exotics ticket.

Today's three free races give you a solid foundation to build a card around. El de Larry opens the show in Race 1 — a Starter Optional Claiming mile on the dirt that sets the tone early. In maiden company, Love Yourself (Race 2) and Paris by Night (Race 3) are our top selections, and both figures could respond well to a wet, tiring track that tends to expose class differences in younger horses. If the pace collapses early, don't be surprised if the closers in these fields get overlooked at generous prices.

One angle connecting all three free races: on an off track at Laurel, pace tends to be brutal on the front end late in routes, and sprint fields often go flat by the eighth pole. Keep that in mind when structuring your bets — horses with tactical speed who can rate behind a hot early pace are the profile to target today.

Send me tomorrow's free Laurel Park card before post time.

Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:28 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This 5½-furlong allowance sprint features a fascinating pace scenario — multiple speed horses from the McMahon barn could set it up perfectly for closers, with Biscuitwiththeboss carrying the top rating but not the top speed figure.

win5BiscuitwiththebossML 7/5

Biscuitwiththeboss tops the TrackWiz ratings at 69.53 and goes as the 7/5 morning line choice, with Sheldon Russell teaming up with trainer Brittany T. Russell — connections that obviously know this horse's needs inside and out. At an average speed figure of 57, tied for the best in the field with Brikeli, the raw speed is there to match up. The 18% career win rate is modest for a morning line favorite, but the rating separation here is meaningful.

place7DestinationML 9/2

Destination rates at 67.63 and draws the 9/2 morning line, offering legitimate value relative to the chalk. Jockey Leandro M. Briceno pilots this horse for trainer Miguel Vera, and a 21% career win rate is the second-best in the field among the top contenders. With an average speed figure of 56, Destination has the raw ability to press or stalk and should be live for the exacta.

show8Lady EnsignML 2/1

Lady Ensign is an interesting show play at 2/1 — that's a tight price for third money, but the 63.43 rating and a field-best average speed figure of 58 make her a serious contender in her own right. Trainer Hugh I. McMahon also has Christmas Jones and Tacit Value in this race, giving the barn three chances. Lady Ensign's raw speed number is the highest in the field and she could wire the field if the pace sets up right.

Race 5

5:59 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Penny Loafer is an overwhelming class standout in this one-mile claiming field — the TrackWiz number suggests this horse is in a different stratosphere, making the real betting question about exacta and trifecta construction around a probable short-priced winner.

win6Penny LoaferML 4/5

Penny Loafer owns a 90 TrackWiz rating — the highest in today's entire card — and gets the call at 4/5 on the morning line with jockey Jeiron Barbosa. A 25% career win rate leads this field by a wide margin among legitimate contenders, and trainer Anthony Farrior has this horse pointed right. The one asterisk: Penny Loafer's average speed figure of 52 is actually on the lower end of the group, which means if the pace gets hot early, connections may need Barbosa to rate and unleash the horse in the stretch.

place1Celestial MoonML 5/2

Celestial Moon opens at 5/2 and rates at 56.85 with a 16% career win clip under trainer Jamie Ness, who is one of the more active barns at Laurel. The 5/2 morning line makes this horse overlaid relative to the field — if Penny Loafer gets into any trouble on the one-mile trip, Celestial Moon is the most logical beneficiary and the place price should offer decent value.

show7Top BloodML 12/1

Top Blood at 12/1 is the longshot value in the show spot, carrying a 54.88 rating and a 9% career win rate for trainer Daniel J. McKenzie. The 12/1 number looks like it could be vulnerable to overlay given the rating puts Top Blood in range of the pack behind Penny Loafer. At double-digit odds, a small show investment in the trifecta adds pop to any ticket if the favorite handles the trip cleanly.

Race 6

6:27 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Fifteen horses go to the gate in this maiden claiming sprint — a massive field that will create a chaotic early pace and likely sets things up for a horse that can settle mid-pack and pounce in the stretch.

win9Broadway MusicalML 5/2

Broadway Musical leads this enormous field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and goes as a legitimate 5/2 morning line chance. Trainer Erin C. McClellan sends this horse out with jockey Inoel Beato, and the rating advantage here is substantial — Broadway Musical grades out more than 18 points clear of the next-best runner, Forty Seven Smoker. In a 15-horse field, breaking cleanly and avoiding early traffic will be important, but the overall class advantage is hard to ignore.

place13Forty Seven SmokerML 8/1

Forty Seven Smoker is the value play at 8/1, rating second in the field at 69.55 with the best average speed figure of any horse we're recommending at 56. Angel Cruz handles the riding duties for trainer Mark Shuman, and in a race where the pace could collapse under the weight of so many horses, a horse with legitimate early speed and a strong rating is dangerous. The 8/1 morning line could look like a bargain at post time.

show12Daring DelightML 10/1

Daring Delight is a sneaky third choice at 10/1, carrying a 62.97 rating for trainer Eveline Kjelstrup and jockey Tais Lyapustina. The rating puts her in a clear third tier among the field, and a 10/1 price with genuine ability to factor in makes her a smart trifecta inclusion. In a race this chaotic, you want horses with real numbers at decent prices to cover the show slot.

Race 7

6:59 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A compact seven-horse Starter Optional Claiming field at a mile, with Fightertown and Collection Day forming a clear top pair that figure to separate themselves from the rest — but there's a gap between them and the field worth exploiting in exotics.

win5FightertownML 4/1

Fightertown tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and draws the 4/1 morning line for trainer Lacey Gaudet and jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez. The 17% career win rate is a touch modest, but the rating advantage over third place in this field is significant. Gaudet has this horse pointed right for a Starter Optional Claiming spot, and the 4/1 price represents fair value given the number — this is a horse that could outrun his morning line.

place6Collection DayML 9/5

Collection Day rates closely behind at 81.76 and goes as the 9/5 morning line chalk, which means Fightertown is actually the mild overlay on ratings. Jockey Jaime Rodriguez handles the assignment for trainer Michael V. Simone, and a 19% career win rate is respectable. Collection Day's 52 average speed figure is comparable to several rivals, so the pace setup on this one-mile trip will matter — expect this horse to be involved throughout.

show7Daddy YankeeML 10/1

Daddy Yankee at 10/1 is the value inclusion for show in the exotics, carrying a 56.95 rating that puts him in a distant but legitimate third tier. Trainer Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon sends this horse out with Raul E. Mena in the saddle, and a 12% career win rate means wins don't come often — but at 10/1, you're not paying for consistency, you're playing for upside. If the top two horses get into a pace duel and tire, Daddy Yankee could be cleaning up late.

Race 8

7:33 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Switching to the Laurel turf course for this allowance at 1 1/16 miles, Set Ablaze arrives as a commanding morning line favorite backed by the top TrackWiz rating — but the turf surface adds a layer of unpredictability, and Nothinglesswilldo brings a strong win percentage that demands respect.

win8Set AblazeML 6/5

Set Ablaze is the standout in this turf allowance, carrying a 89.71 TrackWiz rating and a sharp 27% career win rate — both numbers leading the field. Forest Boyce takes the mount for trainer W. Robert Bailes, a Laurel-familiar conditioner, and the 6/5 morning line reflects widespread confidence in this horse. The turf at 1 1/16 miles is a true test of stamina and versatility, and Set Ablaze's profile fits the conditions better than most in this field.

place4NothinglesswilldoML 5/2

Nothinglesswilldo brings a remarkable 30% career win rate to this spot — best in the field — and that kind of winning efficiency at any level of racing is a number that stands out. Trainer Mary E. Eppler points this horse at a 5/2 morning line that looks fair given the record, and jockey Jose E. Vargas should be able to find a good trip from the four-hole. The 84.71 rating is well within striking distance of Set Ablaze.

show3Yes PicnicML 3/1

Yes Picnic is a fascinating show play at 3/1, sporting an eye-catching 50% career win rate that demands a second look — though it likely reflects a short career sample. Trainer Jamie Ness sends this horse out with jockey Jaime Rodriguez, and the 66.91 rating places Yes Picnic in a clear third tier. In a turf race where surface variant and pace can shuffle the deck, having a horse with that kind of win efficiency at 3/1 in your trifecta is worth the investment.

Race 9

8:07 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Go New York Go is as big a morning line favorite as you'll see in an Allowance Optional Claiming field at 3/5 — the pace scenario and matchup strongly favor the chalk, but Befuddled offers a substantial longshot overlay that makes the exotics extremely attractive.

win6Go New York GoML 3/5

Go New York Go draws the 3/5 morning line in a six-horse field and backs it up with an 85.78 TrackWiz rating, the best in the race by a wide margin. Trainer Hugh I. McMahon hands the mount to Charlie Marquez, and this horse's average speed figure of 57 is the highest in the field. At 33% career win rate — matching the field average — what separates Go New York Go is the raw rating and speed figure combination, suggesting this horse has simply been running in better company and drops into a spot where winning looks highly probable.

place5BefuddledML 15/1

Befuddled is a compelling play at 15/1 despite a 69.58 rating that actually grades out second in this field — that's a significant overlay for a horse with legitimate credentials. Trainer Carlos A. Mancilla sends this horse out with Jevian Toledo, a capable pilot, and a 33% career win rate matches several rivals. The 15/1 morning line feels like a market correction waiting to happen, and Befuddled in the place spot of an exacta behind Go New York Go offers tremendous potential payout.

show1Whose NotionML 9/2

Whose Notion rounds out the ticket at 9/2 with a 50% career win rate — the best figure in the race — and an average speed figure of 56 that trails only the favorite. Trainer Brittany T. Russell puts Carlos Eduardo Lopez on this horse, a confident booking. The rating of 54.17 is well below the top two in our picks, but the win percentage and speed number suggest Whose Notion is capable of running into the money in a competitive spot.

Race 10

8:41 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Closing out the card on the Laurel turf with a Starter Optional Claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs — Wonder Girl arrives as the class of the field, but the entry of Preparefortakeoff and Hockey from the Elamri barn, coupled with legitimate mid-priced alternatives, makes this a race worth keying in multiple directions.

win9Wonder GirlML 6/5

Wonder Girl posts the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.71 — matching the highest figure on the card — and draws the 6/5 morning line for trainer Kieron Magee and jockey Horacio Karamanos. The 15% career win rate is modest but not alarming in a turf sprint where tactical positioning matters enormously. An average speed figure of 58 is the best number in this 10-horse field, and at 5½ furlongs on the turf, a horse with that kind of raw pace can get to the lead and dare the others to catch her.

place5Sugar BeeML 3/1

Sugar Bee rates second at 85.13 and carries a strong 25% career win rate under trainer Milan Milosevic, with Jevian Toledo picking up the mount — a quality jockey booking that signals confidence. The 3/1 morning line offers solid value relative to the favorite, and Sugar Bee's average speed figure of 54 keeps this horse well within range of the top contenders on the turf. In a field this competitive, Sugar Bee is the most logical second horse on any exotic ticket.

show4Diva ReadyML 5/1

Diva Ready brings a 79.6 rating and a 20% career win rate to the table at 5/1, with jockey Jaime Rodriguez taking the call for trainer Robert P. Klesaris. The standout stat here is Diva Ready's average speed figure of 57 — second-best in the entire field and only one point behind Wonder Girl. That kind of speed number at 5/1 in a turf sprint is the kind of overlay that makes trifecta construction very interesting; if Wonder Girl gets shuffled back at all, Diva Ready has the raw speed to be involved at a generous price.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: rain is the storyline at Laurel today, and every pick on this card needs to be filtered through the off-track lens. El de Larry, Love Yourself, and Paris by Night are your free best bets to get you started. For the full 10-race breakdown — pace projections, exotic tickets, and our live-longshot angles — the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and may your winners hit the wire dry.

← All Laurel Park picks & predictions

You're reading 3 of 10 races free