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Laurel Park Picks & Predictions — September 27, 2026

September 27, 202610 racesAll Laurel Park picks

It's a damp one at Laurel Park on September 27th. Rain is falling and temperatures are sitting at 61°F, which means track condition is going to be a major factor all afternoon — particularly for the turf races, where we could see some late surface switches or compromised ground that reshapes the pace scenarios entirely. Stay close to the TrackWiz live updates before you finalize any tickets.

Ten races are on the board today — a mix of claiming, allowance, and maiden events spread across both dirt and turf. The card has genuine depth, with a handful of standout contenders and at least one spot where we think the morning line is leaving real money on the table for sharp players willing to dig in.

Three races are fully open to all TrackWiz readers today, with our complete analysis on Races 1, 2, and 3 available right now. The remaining seven races — including some of the most intriguing betting opportunities on the card — are part of our premium full-card breakdown.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A sprawling 12-horse turf claiming opener where the TrackWiz ratings separate the contenders from the field-fillers — Korrongo sits well clear on our numbers while a pair of Farrior runners lurk as dangerous stablemates.

win4KorrongoML 4/1

Korrongo tops our TrackWiz ratings by a significant margin at 85.62 — nearly 14 points clear of the next contender — and draws in at a juicy morning-line of 4/1 that represents genuine value for a horse this dominant on paper. Angel Cruz gets the call, and the 57 average speed figure is the best in the field among the contenders. The 11% career win rate looks modest, but in a claiming field this deep and this weak, his overall profile is a clear step above. The 5.5-furlong turf distance suits horses that can rate off a pace and fire late, and Korrongo's numbers suggest he's exactly that type.

place11ArchimedesML 5/1

Archimedes (72.01 TrackWiz rating) is saddled by Jevian Toledo, one of the sharper turf riders in this region, and carries an 18% career win rate that matches the top pick. Trainer Anthony Farrior also conditions the third pick in this race, suggesting the barn came loaded today — worth noting for exacta and trifecta construction. A 5/1 morning line gives you solid place value in a big field.

show3Bonsai WarriorML 9/2

Bonsai Warrior is the other half of the Farrior-trained duo in this race and rates third in the field with a 66.48 score. The 9/2 morning line means he could get bet down as part of an entry, and a 16% career win rate is respectable for this level. In a trifecta, he makes a logical third wheel behind the two higher-rated runners.

Race 2

4:29 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Veneto towers over this one-mile dirt claiming field on the TrackWiz ratings and comes in as the clear morning-line favorite — the real question is whether anything in here can hang with him and where the underneath value lands.

win2VenetoML 6/5

Veneto is the class of this field at an 89.71 TrackWiz rating — a full 36 points ahead of the second-best horse in here. Trained by Jose Corrales and piloted by Leandro M. Briceno, the 6/5 morning-line price reflects that dominance, though an average speed figure of 54 on dirt is something to track. A 6% career win rate is the one cautionary flag, but in a field this thin, the overall profile points to a wire-to-wire or dominant effort. When the ratings gap is this wide at a claiming level, you have to side with the number.

place5Furious GeorgeML 6/1

Furious George grades out second-best at 53.36 and represents solid each-way value at 6/1 on the morning line. Trainer Damon R. Dilodovico sends out Matilda Burnham, and while the 4% career win rate is thin, the pace scenario over a mile of dirt could set up well for a closer. If Veneto draws pressure early, Furious George is the most logical beneficiary.

show1Magnificent RagsML 5/1

Magnificent Rags opens at 5/1 and rates third in the field at 45.53, making her a viable exotics anchor for the show slot. Jeiron Barbosa is a live rider at this level, and while a 6% career win rate isn't inspiring, the distance of a flat mile suits horses with stamina. Include her in trifecta tickets underneath the top two for added coverage.

Race 3

4:58 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full 12-horse turf claiming field going 1 1/16 miles, where Keen Talent has the highest TrackWiz rating but the morning-line favorite Villain sits well below him on our numbers — creating an interesting disconnect between public and model opinion.

win11Keen TalentML 6/1

Keen Talent sits atop our TrackWiz model at 82.71 despite being listed at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a meaningful overlay in a race where the 2/1 chalk (Villain) rates just 43.54 by comparison. Jeiron Barbosa gets the mount for trainer Anthony Farrior, a barn that also appears earlier on today's card and looks sharp today. A 15% career win rate is solid at this level, and the 53 speed figure on turf over this extended sprint distance is competitive. TrackWiz analysis consistently rewards these situations where the top-rated horse is being underestimated by the market.

place12Red Sky MorningML 9/2

Red Sky Morning at 9/2 is the second-highest rated horse in the field at 74.39 and makes a strong case for the place slot. Julio A. Hernandez picks up the mount for trainer Michael Dini, and a 13% career win rate over what looks like a turf-oriented profile fits this distance well. She's close enough in the ratings to Keen Talent that a reversal of fortune is plausible — making her essential in exactas.

show2OwhataniteML 7/2

Owhatanite checks in at 74.10 — just a hair below Red Sky Morning — and the 7/2 morning line means she could be the most bet horse underneath the top pick. An 8% career win rate on a turf route profile is modest, but she's clearly in the right tier of this field. Use her in trifectas as a show anchor given her ratings proximity to the top two.

Our three free races today give you a nice cross-section of what Laurel is offering. Korrongo opens the card on the turf at 5½ furlongs at a workable 4/1 morning line — with our TrackWiz rating of 85.62, there's plenty to like as a springboard bet to get the day started. Race 2 brings Veneto to the dirt mile, and honestly, that 6/5 chalk price reflects how dominant our analysis grades this horse — an 89.71 rating is the highest mark on today's free card and one of the strongest figures we've posted all week at this meet. Don't overcomplicate it.

Race 3 shifts back to the turf for a 1 1/16-mile claiming test, and that's where Keen Talent at 6/1 gets interesting. A morning line that long on a horse rated 82.71 by our model suggests the public may be underestimating the pace setup here — and on a soft or yielding turf course, that kind of overlooked runner can be a gift. Keep the rain in mind: if the turf course plays slower than expected, closers gain ground and value horses get more chances to hit the board.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:27 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming field with 16 runners going a flat mile on dirt — none of these horses have ever won, so the TrackWiz model and workout patterns carry extra weight, and Plenty On Tap leads our numbers by a substantial margin.

win16Plenty On TapML 3/1

Plenty On Tap dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 87.08 — the best number in the race by more than 17 points over Red Sea. Jorge Ruiz has the mount, and an average speed figure of 54 on dirt is tied for best in the field. The 3/1 morning line suggests the market is also sweet on this horse, but that rating gap is significant enough that the relative confidence here is high. In maiden claiming company, when a horse grades this far above the field, you have to make them your primary win selection.

place15Red SeaML 5/2

Red Sea is the second-best rated runner here at 69.91 and draws in at 5/2 on the morning line — making her one of the most likely to hit the board. Trainer A. Ferris Allen III sends out Horacio Karamanos, a jockey familiar with these conditions. A 55 average speed figure is the best in the entire race, which suggests raw ability even without a win on the board.

show3Target MarketML 2/1

Target Market rates third on our model at 58.33 and Jorge Ruiz is listed twice today — once here and once for the win pick Plenty On Tap — so connections are clearly live in this race. The 2/1 morning line makes Target Market the public's top pick, but our model slots him third, suggesting he's a solid show ticket rather than a win play. A 54 average speed figure is right in line with the field average.

Race 5

5:58 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

This 7-furlong dirt maiden claiming event is tighter than it looks — the top three on our model are separated by just 15 points, and a value bomb at 10/1 cracks the top tier on TrackWiz ratings.

win2Stoic ReserveML 4/1

Stoic Reserve leads our TrackWiz ratings in this spot at 73.03, posting the highest mark in the field despite going off at 4/1 on the morning line. Jose E. Vargas rides for trainer Hamilton A. Smith, and a 54 average speed figure is the best among the top contenders. In a maiden field where nothing has broken through yet, finding the horse with the strongest underlying metrics is the play, and Stoic Reserve clears that bar comfortably.

place6Whacky WitchML 10/1

Whacky Witch is the value call here — rated 61.58 by TrackWiz and available at 10/1 on the morning line, she's being vastly underestimated by the morning line oddsmakers. Trainer Anthony Farrior ships her in with Jevian Toledo aboard, a sharp combo that appears multiple times today. At seven furlongs on dirt, a horse with this rating at double-digit odds is a prime exacta and place ticket target.

show1Think PinkML 5/2

Think Pink checks in tied for third on our model at 57.5 alongside Silver Strings, but the 5/2 morning line gives her the public support to validate. Trainer Michael R. Matz is a well-regarded name, and Julio A. Hernandez is a solid choice for this trip. She's a logical show play in trifectas given her consistent speed figure of 53 and the market confidence behind her.

Race 6

6:29 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming sprint on dirt featuring an entry that muddies the betting pools — Normandy Hero leads our ratings outright, but the coupled Petcoff/Mizner entry at 9/5 creates a complicated pace and wagering scenario.

win2Normandy HeroML 5/1

Normandy Hero tops the TrackWiz model at 84.17 and is priced at 5/1 on the morning line — a meaningful overlay given that our ratings put him above even the favored entry. Trainer Jamie Ness sends out Mychel J. Sanchez, a proven combination at this level, and a 21% career win rate is strong for an allowance optional claiming spot. The 56 average speed figure at 5.5 furlongs on dirt works perfectly at this distance, and at these odds against a split-pool entry, Normandy Hero is the play.

place1AMiznerML 9/5

Mizner is the higher-rated half of the Brittany Russell entry at 82.96 and carries a 40% career win rate — among the strongest in any race on today's card. Sheldon Russell has the mount, and while the 9/5 coupled price means both entry horses share the same pool, Mizner's individual profile screams capable of a top-three finish. The 56 average speed figure slots him right in the mix at 5.5 furlongs.

show5KnockanaraML 6/1

Knockanara opens at 6/1 and grades third on our model at 64.12, making her a live show contender in what figures to be a pace-honest allowance sprint. Jeiron Barbosa rides for trainer Sarah Nagle, and a 26% career win rate demonstrates consistent competence at this level. At 6/1, she's a value inclusion in show parlays and trifecta tickets behind the top two.

Race 7

7:01 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A 13-horse turf allowance sprint where Virtuosity comes in as the public's choice at 2/1 but Frye Island lurks as a massive overlay — the pace scenario should be lively with this many runners going 5.5 furlongs on the grass.

win9VirtuosityML 2/1

Virtuosity tops our TrackWiz model at 82.11 and matches the public at 2/1 on the morning line, but the underlying numbers make that price defensible. Jorge Ruiz gets the mount for trainer Michael J. Trombetta — a sharp combination in turf allowance company — and the 57 average speed figure is tied for best in the field. An 8% career win rate looks light, but TrackWiz analysis suggests this horse is outrunning that figure, and the allowance class level suits his overall form.

place7Frye IslandML 10/1

Frye Island is the marquee value play of this race — rated 76.88 by TrackWiz but priced at 10/1 on the morning line, there's a significant gap between our model and the public's assessment. A 30% career win rate is excellent for a horse at this price point, and Jevian Toledo is one of the best turf riders in the Mid-Atlantic. At 5.5 furlongs on the grass, a horse with that win rate and this speed figure (57) has every right to be hitting the board.

show10Start TappinML 8/1

Start Tappin grabs our attention with a remarkable 50% career win rate — the highest of any horse in this race — and a morning line of 8/1. Trainer Miguel Vera sends out Jean Gregor Briceno, and a 56 average speed figure puts him in the competitive tier. That win rate at double-digit odds is the kind of stat that should show up in your trifecta coverage.

Race 8

7:34 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

A 7-furlong dirt maiden special weight with a potential upset brewing — the morning-line favorite Kiss Me Mo comes in at 3/5 but actually rates below Rocker Roller on our model, setting up a fascinating market vs. model scenario.

win2Rocker RollerML 7/2

Rocker Roller leads the TrackWiz ratings in this race at 86.35 despite being the second choice at 7/2 on the morning line, while the odds-on favorite Kiss Me Mo rates 81.70. Trainer Brittany T. Russell pairs with Mychel J. Sanchez — a combination that appears multiple times today with success — and a 54 average speed figure matches the best in the field. When our model puts a 7/2 shot above the heavy favorite in a maiden special weight, that's exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz is built to find.

place6Kiss Me MoML 3/5

Kiss Me Mo is getting heavy public action at 3/5, but she checks in second on our model at 81.70 — still a very high mark and clearly a legit contender. Trainer Kerry Hohlbein sends out Jose E. Vargas, and a 54 average speed figure is competitive. Even if she gets beat at the wire, she's highly unlikely to miss the board, making her a solid place and trifecta safety net.

show7Kinda KrazyML 12/1

Kinda Krazy opens at 12/1 and posts a solid 65.66 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field and well ahead of the rest. Trainer Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon sends out Jaime Rodriguez, and while it's maiden special weight company, a 53 average speed figure is respectable. At these odds in a short field of seven, show tickets on Kinda Krazy offer genuine value for trifecta builders.

Race 9

8:07 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The best race on the card — an 11-horse turf allowance optional claiming sprint packed with horses rated 70 or above, where Flamingo Way leads on our model but four runners are within five points of each other and the result could go several ways.

win2Flamingo WayML 9/5

Flamingo Way posts the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.43 and draws the morning-line chalk at 9/5, but unlike some short-priced favorites, the underlying data backs up that confidence. Trainer Philip T. Aristone teams with Mychel J. Sanchez — who has multiple live mounts today — and a 35% career win rate is among the best in today's entire card. The 58 average speed figure is tied for highest in the race, and at 5.5 furlongs on turf, a horse with this combination of speed and winning consistency is tough to beat.

place7SomniumML 4/1

Somnium is a razor-thin second on our model at 85.62 — essentially a dead heat with Flamingo Way in ratings terms — and opens at 4/1. Jevian Toledo rides for trainer Elizabeth M. Merryman, and a 28% career win rate combined with a 58 average speed figure gives this horse every tool needed to land in the exacta. The morning-line price is a mild overlay given how close these two are in our model.

show5Gift of GabML 6/1

Gift of Gab slots third in our TrackWiz ratings at 80.31 and offers 6/1 morning-line value in a race where the top tier is bunched tightly. Jorge Ruiz rides for Suzanne Stettinius, and a 29% career win rate on a turf-favorable profile makes this horse dangerous in the right pace scenario. Include Gift of Gab in trifectas and superfectas as a live show threat at a price.

Race 10

8:36 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The late closer at Laurel features a maiden claiming field going a flat mile on dirt where Divine Swagger blows away the field on TrackWiz ratings despite being priced second in the morning line — the market may be undervaluing the top horse here.

win6Divine SwaggerML 7/2

Divine Swagger commands the TrackWiz model at 86.35 — the top mark in the field by more than 16 points — yet the morning line has Midas Factor at 6/5 as the public's top pick while Divine Swagger is available at 7/2. Taylor Kingsley rides for trainer Anthony Aguirre, Jr., and a 52 average speed figure is right in the middle of the field. In maiden claiming company, a ratings gap this wide combined with a morning-line overlay is exactly the scenario where TrackWiz analysis adds real value — this is the best bet of the late sequence.

place7Senor MoneyML 5/1

Senor Money grades second on our model at 69.55 and opens at 5/1 — well-priced for a horse rated this far above the middle of the field. Xavier Perez has the mount for trainer Keith W. Harris, and a 51 average speed figure is modest but workable over a flat mile on dirt. As a place play and exacta partner with Divine Swagger, Senor Money represents strong value at this price.

show4Mr SkinnyML 12/1

Mr Skinny is an interesting show play at 12/1 on the morning line despite ranking third in our TrackWiz model at 64.89. Ronaldo Rodriguez picks up the mount for trainer Mario Roberto Lopez, and a 51 average speed figure is consistent with the field. At double-digit odds, Mr Skinny is the kind of horse who can quietly hit the board and pay well in trifecta tickets — definitely worth a few dollars in the exotic plays.

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Bottom line for today: Veneto is the anchor play of the free card and the kind of horse you build your afternoon around. Keen Talent at 6/1 on the turf is our value flag for casual bettors who want a shot at a bigger return. And if you're serious about the back half of this card — particularly the turf sprints in Races 7 and 9 and the dirt closers in Race 10 — the full premium breakdown is where you want to be. Good luck out there, and stay dry.

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