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Laurel Park Picks & Predictions — September 25, 2026

September 25, 20269 racesAll Laurel Park picks

Happy Friday from Laurel Park, where a crisp 65-degree afternoon under partly cloudy skies sets the stage for a nine-race card that should play out beautifully on both the turf and the dirt. Conditions look close to ideal — no heat stress, no moisture concerns — and that means surface biases should be minimal, putting the emphasis squarely on horse quality and pace scenarios.

Today's card leans heavily on the turf, with four of the nine races run on the grass, including a pair of optional claiming sprints that figure to be competitive top to bottom. Throw in a couple of maiden specials, an allowance, and two dirt claiming routes, and there's plenty here for every type of bettor — whether you're hunting a morning-line overlay or just trying to cash a simple win ticket on a Friday afternoon.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf sprint where first-time starters dominate the field and the morning line favorite carries the highest TrackWiz rating by a clear margin — but maiden grass races can humble the chalk in a hurry.

win9BetterpartofvalourML 2/1

Betterpartofvalour (9) is the class of this field by our ratings, posting a 58.33 — the only horse in the race above 57 — and backs it up with an average speed figure of 56, best among horses with recorded figures. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta is a sharp hand with first-out turf runners, and the 2/1 morning line signals the connections have plenty of confidence here. In a race full of unknowns, having the top rating AND the best speed number is a rare alignment worth following.

place5After AllML 4/1

After All (5) matches Betterpartofvalour's average speed figure of 55 and carries a solid 55.0 TrackWiz rating, making it a legitimate threat to hit the board at 4/1. Trainer W. Thomas McMahon keeps this one live, and with multiple horses in the field showing zero workable speed data, After All's figures give it a tangible edge in the place spot.

show10Do the Right ThingML 5/1

Do the Right Thing (10) shares the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 53.33 alongside Mojohnnymojohnny, but posts an average speed of 55 to go with it — a combination that makes Hall of Famer H. Graham Motion's runner a logical exotics anchor at 5/1. In a maiden race where the bottom of the field is truly unknown, this horse's demonstrated figures make it a safer show ticket than the odds imply.

Race 2

4:29 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

J C's Boys is a significant class and ratings standout in this Starter Optional Claiming sprint, but the question is whether Sohandsometome and the morning-line favorite Kalea Bay can keep the pressure on at seven furlongs.

win6J C's BoysML 3/1

J C's Boys (6) is the most dominant number in this race — an 87.08 TrackWiz rating that towers over the next-best at 63.13. Under trainer W. Robert Bailes, who also has Sohandsometome in the field, and with Jose E. Vargas in the irons, this horse brings a 16% career win rate to a race it should be controlling. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's enough value to make this a confident top selection in a race where the ratings gap is unusually wide.

place3SohandsometomeML 5/1

Sohandsometome (3) is the second-best rated horse in the field at 63.13 and brings the best career win percentage of any starter at 25% — that's real, sustained ability. Trainer W. Robert Bailes doubles up here, and the 5/1 price on a horse with this kind of win rate makes the place spot look like a strong value.

show5Kalea BayML EVN

Kalea Bay (5) is the morning-line favorite at even money, which means the market disagrees with our ratings — but a 59.95 rating and Mychel J. Sanchez in the saddle still warrants show inclusion. Trainer Brittany T. Russell is a sharp conditioner, and even if Kalea Bay can't quite match J C's Boys and Sohandsometome, there's enough class here to expect a board finish at short odds.

Race 3

4:58 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Twelve-horse turf claiming field with a genuine value play at the top — our top-rated horse I'm a Sure Thing goes postward at 6/1, well underneath the morning-line favorite Pretty Lavish, setting up a real price-versus-public battle at a mile and a sixteenth.

win10I'm a Sure ThingML 6/1

I'm a Sure Thing (10) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 82.71 and backs it up with the best career win rate among the top contenders at 17% — meaningful in a field where several horses are in the 6-12% range. Trainer Horacio De Paz also has Endless Vow in the field, suggesting stable confidence in this runner as the A-entry. At 6/1 on the morning line against a 2/1 public choice, TrackWiz analysis sees a legitimate overlay here.

place11Pretty LavishML 2/1

Pretty Lavish (11) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a 72.18 rating and a 6% career win rate — the win rate is a yellow flag, but Forest Boyce is a capable rider and trainer Amelia J. Green keeps this one competitive. As a place play, the market support is hard to ignore even if our numbers suggest I'm a Sure Thing is the stronger horse.

show8Honor Our CountryML 5/2

Honor Our Country (8) brings a 68.72 rating and a 20% career win rate — that's the second-best win percentage among the key contenders in this field. Trainer Jamie Ness knows how to place horses, and Jaime Rodriguez is a reliable hand for the role. At 5/2 on the morning line, including this one in your exotics coverage is sound handicapping.

Our three free previews cover Races 1, 2, and 3 — and they span both surfaces, giving you a real taste of today's card. On the turf, Betterpartofvalour opens the day at 2/1 in a maiden special weight sprint, and while maiden races always carry uncertainty, the TrackWiz rating of 58.33 reflects a field where the top picks separate from the pack more clearly than the morning line might suggest. On the dirt in Race 2, J C's Boys (3/1) carries our strongest rating of the free trio at 87.08 — that kind of number in a starter optional claiming at seven furlongs is worth paying close attention to.

The standout free value play, though, is Race 3: I'm a Sure Thing goes at 6/1 on the turf route, carrying an 82.71 TrackWiz rating. A double-digit morning-line price on a horse rated that highly in our model is exactly the kind of overlay spot we love to flag. The pace scenario in a 1 1/16-mile turf claiming can be tricky, but if the fractions set up right, watch out for a big late run at a price.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:28 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt claiming sprint with two closely matched high-ratings horses at the top — Final Engagement and Legal Lightning are separated by less than three points — and the public is likely to make Legal Lightning the favorite despite our numbers slightly favoring Final Engagement.

win4Final EngagementML 9/2

Final Engagement (4) posts the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.90, edging morning-line favorite Legal Lightning by a slim margin. Trainer John J. Robb places this horse at 9/2 on the morning line — a price that represents genuine value if our ratings hold up. The 11% career win rate is modest, but the raw rating suggests this horse's recent form is the best it's ever been.

place7Legal LightningML 3/2

Legal Lightning (7) is right there with an 82.49 rating and gets the strong riding assignment of Jaime Rodriguez for trainer Jamie Ness, a combination that wins at a consistent clip at this level. The 3/2 morning line will likely compress further at post time, but this horse belongs on every ticket — it has the class and connections to run a big race at six furlongs.

show2Danni's RhythmML 2/1

Danni's Rhythm (2) checks in with a 68.82 rating and an average speed figure of 54, making it the third-ranked horse by both measures in this field. Trainer W. Robert Bailes has a strong hand with claiming runners, and at 2/1 on the morning line, the public is giving Danni's Rhythm plenty of respect. Solid show anchor and worth including in exactas underneath the top two.

Race 5

6:00 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Big Earn stands out as a clear class horse in this allowance turf sprint, but the wide field of 12 creates a tricky pace scenario — and a pair of double-digit-priced horses with strong win percentages could complicate the exacta.

win9Big EarnML 5/2

Big Earn (9) posts a commanding 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest number on today's entire card — and pairs it with an average speed figure of 57, tied for best in the field. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta is a proven turf handler, and Jorge Ruiz gets the call on a horse that profiles as the most complete runner in this spot. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is a confident top pick.

place6Sin BoldlyML 10/1

Sin Boldly (6) is a genuine value angle at 10/1 — a 69.80 rating with an average speed figure of 57, matching Big Earn at the top of the speed rankings. Trainer Suzanne Stettinius sends this one out with Jeiron Barbosa in the irons, and a 16% career win rate in allowance-level company suggests this horse fires regularly. At double-digit odds, the place payoff on Sin Boldly could be very attractive.

show12AldeneML 3/1

Aldene (12) brings a 68.38 TrackWiz rating and an average speed of 56 for trainer Michael J. Trombetta — that's the same barn as Big Earn, which means Trombetta has two strong hands in this race. Jaime Rodriguez is aboard, and the 3/1 morning line reflects real market respect. With the connections and numbers, Aldene is a logical show play and deserves exotic consideration.

Race 6

6:32 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Winslow enters as a strong morning-line favorite in this maiden dirt sprint, but with a field almost entirely composed of first-time or lightly raced starters, the race shape is unpredictable and the 3/1 Venturous offers a credible alternative.

win3WinslowML 3/2

Winslow (3) tops this field with a 59.17 TrackWiz rating — a clear step above the next-best at 56.67 — and an average speed figure of 55 that backs up the number. Trainer John J. Robb puts Xavier Perez in the irons, and the 3/2 morning line tells you the connections are not hiding their intentions. In a maiden sprint where many horses lack recorded figures, having both the top rating and an actual speed benchmark is a significant advantage.

place6VenturousML 3/1

Venturous (6) is the second-best rated horse at 56.67 and has the only average speed figure of 53 among the main market alternatives — enough to suggest this horse has been doing something right in the mornings. Trainer Horacio De Paz places Angel Cruz on board, a strong jockey booking that adds confidence. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is the most logical place horse in the race.

show8ReplicateML 5/1

Replicate (8) comes in at 53.33 on our ratings and a 5/1 price — useful odds for a horse that at least has a measurable profile in a field full of complete unknowns. Trainer Richard P. Sillaman has Jeiron Barbosa in the irons, and in a deep maiden field, a horse with any kind of upside rating is worth including in the show spot on your exotics tickets.

Race 7

7:01 PM EDT

Rating Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Jungle Glow is a heavy-duty ratings standout in this thirteen-horse turf optional claimer, but a full field at five and a half furlongs sets up a chaotic early pace — and Bushido at 7/2 has the speed figures to challenge if things get messy.

win3Jungle GlowML 3/1

Jungle Glow (3) posts an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — by far the highest in this large field — and matches it with an average speed figure of 57 for trainer Jamie Ness, one of the sharper conditioners in the mid-Atlantic. Martin Chuan rides at 3/1 on the morning line, and a 23% career win rate shows this horse has been converting its chances with regularity. In a wide field where most runners are clustered in the 20-55 rating range, Jungle Glow is a standout.

place5BushidoML 7/2

Bushido (5) is the most credible second choice in the race, posting a 74.75 rating and the top average speed figure in the field at 58 — higher than Jungle Glow on that single metric. Trainer Lacey Gaudet gets Forest Boyce in the irons, and a 28% career win rate is excellent for this level. At 7/2, Bushido is worth considering for win as well if you want to get aggressive.

show2CactusML 12/1

Cactus (2) is the TrackWiz longshot angle here — a 54.97 rating with an average speed figure of 57 (matching Jungle Glow) at 12/1 on the morning line. Trainer Jonathan Maldonado sends this one out with a 26% career win rate that demands attention. If Jungle Glow and Bushido get tangled up in a hot pace, Cactus's speed figures suggest it can pick up the pieces for a show check at a very generous price.

Race 8

7:29 PM EDT

Rating Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A nine-horse dirt route where the ratings are tightly bunched at the top — four horses within five points of each other — making this one of the trickiest races on the card to single, with legitimate value scattered across the field.

win8Lure Him InML 6/1

Lure Him In (8) tops our ratings at 73.83 and posts an 18% career win rate in optional claiming company, suggesting this is a horse that fires regularly when the conditions are right. Trainer Sam Wilensky sends Jorge Ruiz to the irons, and the 6/1 morning line represents clear value against the morning-line favorite Pay Billy — our numbers rank Lure Him In ahead of Pay Billy despite the market disagreeing.

place6Just a Fair ShakeML 4/1

Just a Fair Shake (6) is just 0.64 points behind our top pick with a 73.19 rating, and trainer Daniel J. McKenzie has Jaime Rodriguez aboard — a top-flight jockey booking that speaks to the trainer's confidence. A 17% career win rate combined with a 4/1 morning line makes this the most palatable place bet in the race, and it could easily outrun Lure Him In if pace sets up differently.

show5BrightyML 15/1

Brighty (5) at 15/1 is the hidden-value play in this race — a 69.58 TrackWiz rating that slots in third among our contenders, yet the morning line prices this horse as a distant outsider. Trainer Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon's runner gets Martin Chuan up, and in a routing race where the pace could come back to the field, a horse with this rating sitting at a big number is worth a show flyer and exotic inclusion.

Race 9

7:57 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Fifteen-horse maiden turf route — the biggest field on the card — and despite all horses being winless, there's a meaningful ratings separation at the top between Bertiebertbert and a cluster of closely matched alternatives.

win4BertiebertbertML 2/1

Bertiebertbert (4) leads our ratings at 58.33 and posts an average speed figure of 55, which puts this Jamie Ness trainee at the top of both key measurables in the race. Jaime Rodriguez gets the mount, one of the most active and effective riders in the mid-Atlantic circuit. At 2/1 on the morning line, the public is aligned with our top rating, and with Ness knowing how to place a horse, this is a straightforward top selection.

place8Awesome LawML 5/2

Awesome Law (8) is separated from Bertiebertbert by less than a point at 57.50 and gets the strong Brittany T. Russell barn with Carlos Eduardo Lopez riding — a capable combination at this level. An average speed figure of 53 is noted, but the overall rating and trainer credentials suggest this horse is ready to run a big race first off. At 5/2, it's a logical place play underneath the favorite.

show2Nova KnicksML 9/2

Nova Knicks (2) rounds out the top three with a 54.17 rating and an average speed figure of 56 — actually the highest speed mark among our three selections. Trainer Richard P. Sillaman sends Xavier Perez to the post at 9/2 on the morning line, and in a fifteen-horse field where chaos is always a factor, having a horse with a legitimate speed benchmark in the show spot is sound practice for exotics players.

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Friday at Laurel Park has real teeth. The free card alone gives you a legit value play in I'm a Sure Thing at 6/1 in Race 3 and a high-confidence pick in J C's Boys in Race 2. If you want the full nine-race roadmap — pace scenarios, exotic tickets, and our top plays in the allowance and optional claimers — it's all waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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