Daily Picks

Laurel Park Picks & Predictions — June 21, 2026

Sunday, June 21, 202610 racesLaurel Park

Happy Sunday from Laurel Park, where a 10-race card is set to go under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 80°F — about as good as a mid-June afternoon in Maryland gets. The turf is expected to be in fine shape, which matters today because six of the ten races are run on the green, including a pair of 2 1/8-mile marathons to kick things off.

It's a varied card that covers the full spectrum: maiden special weights, claiming races, and three allowance optional claiming bouts anchoring the back half of the card. Whether you're here for a few casual wagers or building multi-race exotics, there's plenty to dig into. TrackWiz analysis has combed through every angle, and we've got strong opinions on a handful of these races.

Three races are fully unlocked and free for every reader. The rest of the card — including our deepest dive into the premium races — is available to TrackWiz subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 2 1/8 mi · Turf

A sprawling 16-horse maiden field going 2 1/8 miles on the turf — stamina will sort them out, and TrackWiz ratings point to a clear top three pulling well clear of the deep pack.

win2Hold OutML 5/2

Hold Out (No. 2) carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.44, a meaningful gap above the competition in what is otherwise a muddled maiden. Trained by Meriwether Morris and piloted by Conor Tierney, this one has flashed a 15% career win rate, which is notably solid for a horse still in maiden company. The 2 1/8-mile turf trip is a demanding test, but that rating premium suggests Hold Out has the engine to see it out. At 5/2 morning line, this is a fair price for the most accomplished horse on paper.

place3Day and AgeML 4/1

Day and Age (No. 3) matches Hold Out's 15% career win rate and posts a TrackWiz rating of 71.05 — second-best in the field. Jockey Freddie Procter gets the call for trainer Todd J. Wyatt, a pairing worth noting in a route on the green. An avg speed figure of 55 gives Day and Age a slight edge in raw pace over much of the field, making a strong place finish highly achievable at 4/1.

show10Double ClutchML 7/2

Double Clutch (No. 10) rates third in the field at 70.98 and brings a 12% career win rate for trainer Neil R. Morris. Graham Watters rides, and the avg speed of 57 is actually the highest posted figure among the top three picks — suggesting Double Clutch could pop if the pace sets up favorably late. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's value in including this one in exacta and trifecta tickets.

Race 2

4:32 PM EDT

Handicap · 2 1/8 mi · Turf

A deep 15-horse handicap on the turf at 2 1/8 miles, with Missionaire's TrackWiz rating standing out like a flare gun in an otherwise compressed field — though Ranger Thunderbolt's unusual profile adds an intriguing wrinkle.

win7MissionaireML 6/1

Missionaire (No. 7) is the class of this field and it isn't particularly close — an 82.71 TrackWiz rating towers over the next-best horse by nearly 30 points. Graham Watters rides for trainer Neil R. Morris, a familiar combo on the Laurel turf, and a 23% career win rate underlines genuine quality. The avg speed of 55 is right in the sweet spot for this distance, and at 6/1 morning line, TrackWiz sees a horse worth backing with confidence despite the long trip.

place12Tuddenham GreenML 3/1

Tuddenham Green (No. 12) brings a gaudy 33% career win rate to a tough Handicap field — that's the kind of percentage that demands respect regardless of conditions. Freddie Procter takes the mount for trainer Jack Fisher, a shrewd handler who knows how to place horses. A TrackWiz rating of 53.58 makes this one a legitimate contender for the exacta slot, and the 3/1 morning line reflects the market's respect.

show9Ranger ThunderboltML 5/1

Ranger Thunderbolt (No. 9) is the horse everyone will be talking about in the paddock — a 100% career win rate is an eye-popping figure, though the sample size behind that number is unknown so temper expectations accordingly. Trainer Cyril Murphy sends out Elizabeth Scully for the mount, and the TrackWiz rating of 53.33 keeps this one squarely in the mix. At 5/1, including Ranger Thunderbolt in trifecta coverage is a no-brainer given the unbeaten record.

Race 3

5:04 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A short, sharp seven-horse maiden claiming mile on the dirt, and the TrackWiz numbers carve a clear top two with a surprising value play lurking underneath.

win7Zen DreamsML 2/1

Zen Dreams (No. 7) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 78.02 and draws the mount for Jeiron Barbosa under trainer Anthony Aguirre, Jr. All runners in this maiden claimer are winless, but Zen Dreams has the highest ceiling by our metrics — posting an avg speed of 53 on the dirt mile surface. At 2/1 on the morning line, the market agrees, but this is a legitimate short-priced play rather than a false favorite.

place5I'mamaterialgirlML 3/1

I'mamaterialgirl (No. 5) rates second in the field at 72.68 and is trained by Jose Corrales with Jean Gregor Briceno aboard — a competitive jockey booking for a race of this level. The avg speed of 52 is just a tick below Zen Dreams, and at 3/1, there's real value in using this one underneath in exactas given the tight margin between the top two horses.

show2Judy GML 10/1

Judy G (No. 2) is the longshot value of the piece at 10/1 morning line, yet she carries a TrackWiz rating of 65.60 — well clear of the bottom half of the field. Jasmine McGuin rides for Charles A. Frock, and an avg speed of 51 leaves a gap to the top picks, but in a maiden field where none have won, form cycles can flip quickly. Trifecta players should absolutely include Judy G at her price.

The free portion of today's card spans the first three races, and they set the table nicely. Races 1 and 2 both go 2 1/8 miles on the turf — that's a grind, and stamina pedigree is everything at that kind of distance. Hold Out opens the card as our top selection at 5/2 on the morning line, with a TrackWiz rating of 84.44 that stands out in a maiden special weight field. In Race 2, we're going against the chalk with Missionaire at 6/1 — a handicap race at this distance is a genuine stamina test, and the value in the morning line makes this one worth highlighting.

Race 3 shifts to the dirt and tightens up to a flat mile, and Zen Dreams draws our attention at 2/1 in the maiden claiming. Dirt routing form is the angle to prioritize here, and the 78.02 rating leads the field in our model. All three free races offer legitimate reasons to get involved — this isn't just chalk-chasing.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:34 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Ten maiden claimers tackle 1 1/16 miles on the turf, and TrackWiz identifies a genuine overlay at the top — Midnight Prowler is rated well above the morning-line favorite and deserves serious attention.

win7Midnight ProwlerML 8/1

Midnight Prowler (No. 7) carries a 74.63 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field — yet is listed at 8/1 on the morning line while shorter-priced horses rate considerably lower. Joseph Rocco, Jr. gets the mount for the powerful Michael R. Matz barn, a trainer well-versed in placing turf maidens. An avg speed of 53 and a strong overall rating makes this the clearest overlay on today's card. If you're looking for a bet that combines data-backed confidence with real payout potential, Midnight Prowler is it.

place3MatadoraML 2/1

Matadora (No. 3) is the public's choice at 2/1 and earns a 64.12 TrackWiz rating — second in the field. Jeiron Barbosa rides for H. Graham Motion, one of the sport's elite turf conditioners who consistently delivers fit runners at first asking on grass. The avg speed of 54 is competitive, and while the morning line suggests the market loves this one, the place spot looks very secure.

show9LendalfootML 5/1

Lendalfoot (No. 9) rates third in the field at 63.19 for trainer Keri Brion, who has a strong hand in this race with two runners entered. Martin Chuan takes the mount, and an avg speed of 53 keeps this one in range of the top contenders on pure pace figures. At 5/1 on the morning line, Lendalfoot is a sensible show play and a key piece of any trifecta ticket.

Race 5

6:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt claiming sprint with three horses bunched at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — the public is leaning toward Fayes Heart, but our model says Paul's Guitar holds the edge at a price.

win1Paul's GuitarML 5/1

Paul's Guitar (No. 1) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17, shading ahead of rivals Clavin and Fayes Heart who sit just below. Jose E. Vargas rides for trainer Jonathan Maldonado, and a 14% career win rate is respectable in claiming company. The rail post in a six-furlong sprint can be an asset when a horse breaks cleanly, and at 5/1 on the morning line, Paul's Guitar is the value play of the top tier.

place4ClavinML 5/2

Clavin (No. 4) is the standout on career win percentage — a 25% strike rate is eye-catching for a horse in this class, and trainer Kieron Magee clearly knows how to get this one to the wire first. Ismerio Villalobos rides, and the TrackWiz rating of 82.01 keeps Clavin firmly in the mix. A 5/2 morning line suggests the market respects this one, making the place slot a comfortable landing zone.

show8Fayes HeartML 7/5

Fayes Heart (No. 8) is the crowd's choice at 7/5 morning line, and while our model places this one third behind Paul's Guitar and Clavin on raw rating (81.43), the 16% career win rate and consistent avg speed of 53 make a top-three finish highly probable. Xavier Perez rides for John J. Robb, a straightforward claiming connection. Use Fayes Heart to anchor your show position but consider going against on top in the exacta.

Race 6

6:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open 15-horse turf sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs with two horses rated virtually identically at the top — Frappart and Let Her Pass By are separated by just 0.12 TrackWiz points, setting up a potentially lucrative exacta box.

win13FrappartML 3/1

Frappart (No. 13) edges the field with the highest TrackWiz rating at 84.29, and trainer Katharine M. Voss sends out Jevian Toledo — one of the sharper riders on the Laurel circuit. A 20% career win rate and an avg speed of 57 are the best raw numbers in this field, making Frappart's case easy to construct. At 3/1 morning line in a 15-horse field, this represents genuine value for a horse that our model likes at the top.

place4Let Her Pass ByML 5/1

Let Her Pass By (No. 4) rates a razor-thin second at 84.17 — essentially a dead heat with Frappart on our model — and Jose E. Vargas climbs aboard for trainer Richard P. Sillaman. A 12% career win rate is modest, but the avg speed of 53 in a sprint context is workable, and being rated this close to the top horse means a place finish feels like a floor rather than a ceiling. At 5/1, this is a strong exacta play with Frappart.

show6Over My CentsML 5/2

Over My Cents (No. 6) slots in third on our ratings at 76.04, and Jorge Ruiz gets the call for trainer Jose J. Magana. The avg speed of 56 actually exceeds both top picks, which suggests Over My Cents could be dangerous if she gets a pace to chase in this turf sprint. At 5/2 morning line, the market sees this as a leading contender, and show tickets look solid.

Race 7

7:13 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The Jamie Ness barn dominates this allowance optional claiming field — with an entry running as a coupled 1 and 1A, the question isn't if the barn wins, but which half of the entry fires best.

win1ABeale Street BoyML 7/5

Beale Street Boy (No. 1A) earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.42 — a strong number in allowance company — and runs coupled with stablemate Lookin At Mac under the Jamie Ness banner. Martin Chuan pilots both horses in the entry, a testament to Ness's confidence in his jockey. A 11% career win rate may seem modest, but the raw rating and avg speed of 53 suggest this horse has been pointing to a big effort. The 7/5 morning line prices the entry as a unit.

place1Lookin At MacML 7/5

Lookin At Mac (No. 1) is the other half of the Ness entry and is actually the more accomplished horse on career win percentage — a 28% strike rate is excellent for allowance level. The TrackWiz rating of 84.49 makes this one the second-best horse in the field even setting aside the entry, so placing looks like a near certainty if the barn fires. If you're betting exotics, using both 1 and 1A across your tickets is essential.

show2Marcan LoveML 9/2

Marcan Love (No. 2) is the lone realistic threat to the Ness entry, rating third in the field at 73.8 with a solid 22% career win rate for trainer Troy Robb. Angel Cruz gets the mount, and an avg speed of 52 puts this one in pace contention. At 9/2 morning line, Marcan Love is the key if the heavy-bet entry underperforms — a genuine show ticket hedge.

Race 8

7:47 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Antisocial heads this eight-horse allowance optional claimer on the turf mile as a clear ratings leader, though Sticktothesystem emerges as an intriguing price play that could reward trifecta players handsomely.

win1AntisocialML 7/5

Antisocial (No. 1) brings a 76.68 TrackWiz rating and the top figure in the field to this turf mile, along with a sparkling 25% career win rate that speaks to genuine class. Jevian Toledo rides for Jorge Duarte, Jr., and an avg speed of 56 is the highest posted figure among the top three picks. The 7/5 morning line reflects the market's respect, and while chalk isn't always exciting, the data here supports the short price.

place6Can GroupML 9/2

Can Group (No. 6) rates second in the field at 71.31 for trainer Jamie Ness, who is also represented in Race 7 — a busy day for the barn. Yedsit Hazlewood takes the mount, and an 18% career win rate with an avg speed of 54 makes this a legitimate place threat. At 9/2 morning line, Can Group offers better value than the favorite for exacta construction.

show5SticktothesystemML 20/1

Sticktothesystem (No. 5) is the sneaky play of this race — a 20/1 morning line on a horse with a 62.29 TrackWiz rating, a 21% career win rate, and an avg speed of 54. Xavier Perez rides for William A. Campbell, and the numbers here are dramatically better than the odds suggest. If you're building a trifecta, Sticktothesystem at a big price in the show hole is one of the strongest value angles on the card today.

Race 9

8:19 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A compact but quality six-horse allowance optional claimer on the dirt sets up as a two-horse battle at the top, with Derbyness and Preacha Meyers owning the best numbers and Straight to Water lurking as a price play.

win1DerbynessML 9/5

Derbyness (No. 1) is the top-rated horse in this field at 88.83 and carries an exceptional 33% career win rate — numbers that make a strong case for favoritism. Sheldon Russell rides for trainer Brittany T. Russell (a family connection worth noting for stable morale), and an avg speed of 53 is solid on the dirt route. At 9/5 morning line, this is a well-deserved short price for a horse our model rates as the most complete in the field.

place4Preacha MeyersML 2/1

Preacha Meyers (No. 4) is Derbyness's biggest threat, rating 85.54 and matching that 33% career win rate exactly — the two horses are a near mirror image on key metrics. Martin Chuan rides for Jamie Ness, who is running multiple horses across today's card. An avg speed of 54 gives Preacha Meyers a slight edge in raw pace numbers and makes this one a legitimate win threat as much as a place pick. At 2/1, the exacta of Derbyness over Preacha Meyers deserves serious consideration.

show6Straight to WaterML 6/1

Straight to Water (No. 6) sits well behind the top two at 63.96 but flashes an impressive 31% career win rate — the kind of percentage that can never be dismissed in a race this short. Jose E. Vargas takes the mount for trainer Linda L. Albert, and an avg speed of 52 keeps this one competitive on pace. At 6/1 morning line, Straight to Water is the trifecta hedge that could pay beautifully if either chalk has a troubled trip.

Race 10

8:50 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The card closes with a 10-horse starter optional claiming sprint on the turf, and Boat's a Rockin brings a jaw-dropping TrackWiz rating of 89.42 into a field where the next-best horse checks in nearly seven points lower.

win10Boat's a RockinML 7/5

Boat's a Rockin (No. 10) is simply in a class of its own by the numbers — an 89.42 TrackWiz rating, a 33% career win rate, and an avg speed of 59 that towers above every other runner in this field. Horacio Karamanos rides for trainer Michael V. Simone, and the combination of elite speed figures and a strong win percentage makes this one of the more confident plays on the day's card. The 7/5 morning line is short, but the data says don't fight it.

place7Boss Is a PalML 6/1

Boss Is a Pal (No. 7) checks in second on our ratings at 82.71 with a 20% career win rate and an avg speed of 57 — the second-highest in the field. Yedsit Hazlewood gets the mount for Suzanne Stettinius, and this is a horse that looks perfectly built to run second to a dominant favorite while still paying a decent place price. At 6/1 morning line, Boss Is a Pal is an automatic play in exactas underneath Boat's a Rockin.

show6My Life StoryML 6/1

My Life Story (No. 6) rounds out the top three at 80.18 for trainer Michael J. Maker, one of the better conditioners in the Mid-Atlantic region. Jorge Ruiz rides, and an avg speed of 55 is competitive in this sprint. A 14% career win rate means My Life Story isn't a standout on pure winning percentage, but the strong overall rating and quality of the trainer suggest this one will be there at the line. At 6/1, the show ticket is worth punching.

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A solid Sunday card at Laurel with genuine top-end talent in the allowance races and live value sprinkled throughout the turf routes. Hold Out, Missionaire, and Zen Dreams are your free best bets to start the day — and Beale Street Boy is the name to know in Race 7 if you want a preview of what subscribers are reading. For the full-card breakdown, exotic strategies, and pace projections on all 10 races, subscribe to TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there — let's make it a good one.

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