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Keeneland Picks & Predictions — October 31, 2026

October 31, 202612 racesAll Keeneland picks

This card ran on October 31, 2026.

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Best bets at Keeneland, October 31, 2026

Race 111Overtime BonusML 12/111:15 AM EDT

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Happy Halloween from the Bluegrass. Keeneland is rolling out a loaded 12-race card on October 31st, and the weather is cooperating — cloudy skies with a comfortable 60°F keeps things crisp without threatening the surfaces. Dirt looks like it should be in good shape, and the turf course figures to play fair for the five grass races sprinkled through the afternoon.

What makes today special is the sheer volume of stakes action. Eight of the 12 races are stakes events, covering everything from a snappy 5½-furlong turf dash to a 1½-mile turf marathon. There's a little bit of everything here — speed horses, closers, distance specialists, and at least a couple of morning-line longshots that our analysis thinks are worth a serious look.

Whether you're here to hammer a favorite or dig for a price, this card has opportunity written all over it. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:15 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight on dirt draws a deep field of first-timers and lightly raced juveniles, with the morning-line favorite nowhere near the top of the TrackWiz ratings — making this a prime spot to find value.

win11Overtime BonusML 12/1

Overtime Bonus is the clear TrackWiz top-rated horse in this field with a rating of 73.96, a full 14 points clear of the second-best runner. Trained by Mark E. Casse — one of the sharpest maiden conditioners in the game — and sitting on an average speed figure of 54, this one projects to handle the 7-furlong trip well. Luis Saez gets the call, and when a rider of his caliber takes a Casse debut at 12/1 on the morning line, that's a combination worth following. The price makes this a legitimate value play in a race where the morning-line chalk is rated well below our top pick.

place5PowerlineML 8/5

Powerline opens as the 8/5 morning-line favorite under Flavien Prat for Steve Asmussen, and the public will make this one the shortest price on the board. With an average speed figure of 54 and a TrackWiz rating of 59 — second in the field among runners with workout or workmanlike form — Powerline has the pedigree of a horse that will show up. Even if Overtime Bonus outperforms, Powerline's connections and market support suggest a placing is well within reach.

show8Supreme CommanderML 5/1

Supreme Commander brings Brendan Walsh's patient hand to a debut that has generated enough morning-line respect to open at 5/1. The TrackWiz rating of 53.33 is the third-best in the field, and Tyler Gaffalione is a proven big-meet rider who can coax a big first effort from a well-regarded youngster. In a wide-open maiden, including Supreme Commander in your exotics as the show leg is a smart hedge.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

11:50 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Three horses enter this allowance optional claimer with perfect career win percentages, setting up a fascinating test to see who handles a step up in company — while a clear TrackWiz ratings leader at 8/1 could be the one to beat at a price.

win3Master QueenML 8/1

Master Queen is the standout in TrackWiz's analysis, posting a rating of 78.29 that eclipses every other runner in the field by more than 20 points. She carries a 33% career win rate and an average speed figure of 55 — strong numbers for this level — and opens at 8/1 on the morning line, representing genuine overlay territory. Jaime Torres takes the mount for Carlos Munoz, and the combination of elite rating, solid speed, and morning-line value makes Master Queen our clear top selection in Race 2.

place9Right in TimeML 5/2

Right in Time enters off a perfect career record and opens as the 5/2 second choice, which tells you the market has respect for this filly's upside. Her TrackWiz rating of 57.5 and average speed figure of 55 both project competitively at this level, and Junior Alvarado aboard for Riley Mott is a dangerous pairing at any price. Even if Master Queen fires best, Right in Time's unbeaten profile makes her a logical place-exacta anchor.

show6She's ToastyML 9/2

She's Toasty also enters with a perfect career win percentage and draws Luis Saez for Eddie Kenneally — a barn that knows how to place a horse in the right spot. Her TrackWiz rating of 54.17 and average speed of 55 are right in the mix, and at 9/2 on the morning line, she's a natural show horse and trifecta component. Don't underestimate how dangerous an undefeated horse with a top rider can be at a price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

We're opening up three races for everyone today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and they set a nice tone for the afternoon. The dirt is the common thread across all three, and our top selections reflect horses we believe are well-suited to the surface and distance on offer. Keep an eye on Overtime Bonus in the opener: at 12/1 on the morning line, that's the kind of maiden price that gets our attention when the TrackWiz rating backs it up. Master Queen (8/1, Race 2) is another price play worth building around in the allowance optional claiming ranks.

Booth in Race 3 is the most confident of the free trio — an 85.62 rating at a reasonable 4/1 morning line in a 6½-furlong dirt AOC. When the pace scenario sets up and the figure lines up, that's where value lives. Use these three as your foundation for multi-race sequences early in the card.

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Race 3

12:25 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three scratches thin the field and tighten the pace scenario considerably, leaving a sharp two-horse battle at the top of the TrackWiz ratings between a pair of Keeneland-ready dirt sprinters separated by just over three points.

win1BoothML 4/1

Booth is the TrackWiz top-rated horse at 85.62 and opens at a very fair 4/1 on the morning line. His 40% career win rate is elite for any allowance field, and the average speed figure of 56 is tops in the active runners. Jose Ortiz takes the reins for Steve Asmussen — one of the most successful trainer-jockey pairings at Keeneland fall meets — and the 6.5-furlong distance on dirt suits a horse with Booth's speed profile perfectly. This is our strongest play of the first three races.

place11Saudi CrownML 5/2

Saudi Crown is the natural foil for Booth, opening at 5/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 82.58 and a solid 50% career win rate. Flavien Prat has been one of the best big-meet riders in the country for several seasons, and Brad Cox is perennially among the top trainers at Keeneland. The average speed figure of 54 is slightly below Booth's, but Saudi Crown's class credentials and elite connections make him a near-lock for the place spot.

show2SteezeML 8/1

Steeze sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 78.22 with a respectable 30% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54. Junior Alvarado for Riley Mott is an underrated barn-and-rider combo that consistently delivers at big meets. At 8/1 on the morning line, Steeze offers solid show value and is worth including in trifectas as the horse most likely to complete the top three if either of the top two boats a trip.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 4

1:10 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

A stakes field with two scratches sets up a clear top-rated contender who also carries one of the richest career win percentages on the board, but a deep lineup of experienced runners at various prices will challenge the favorite every step of the way.

win2Ways and MeansML 7/5

Ways and Means is the standout here — a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 leads the field by over 20 points, and a 53% career win rate over a large sample speaks to consistent class. Flavien Prat is aboard for Chad Brown, a combination that has been nearly unstoppable in graded company over the last several years. Opening at 7/5, Ways and Means is the kind of deserving short-priced favorite you play to win and structure your exotics around rather than against.

place9Sweet AztecaML 8/1

Sweet Azteca brings a jaw-dropping 81% career win rate to this spot, which is the highest on the board by a wide margin. Her TrackWiz rating of 68.54 and average speed figure of 56 both suggest she has the tools to compete at this level, and Juan Hernandez is a capable big-meet rider. At 8/1, she's a live value option for the place slot if Ways and Means absorbs all the action up front.

show11ExploraML 4/1

Explora opens at 4/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 65.38 and a 54% career win rate — numbers that would be the top of many allowance fields. Bob Baffert sends her out with Jose Ortiz in the irons, and at that morning-line price, she's firmly in contention for a placing if the pace scenario sets up for closers. Include Explora in your trifectas as the show safety net behind the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 5

1:48 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

An 18-horse turf sprint stakes — with a global flavor featuring runners from Ireland, Great Britain, and Japan alongside domestic standouts — shapes up as a chaotic speed test where TrackWiz sees clear value in a short-priced morning-line favorite who may be underestimated.

win3BacioML 5/2

Bacio holds the top TrackWiz rating in this sprawling field at 82.62 and carries a perfect 100% career win rate — an unbeaten horse with elite ratings going to post at 5/2 is the definition of a play you make with confidence. Wesley Ward is the premier trainer for turf sprints at Keeneland, and Juan Hernandez has been riding with tremendous confidence at this meet. The 5.5-furlong distance is a Ward specialty, and Bacio's average speed figure of 57 is right in line with the best in the field.

place6Yellow CardML 8/1

Yellow Card opens at 8/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 74.02, making her a genuine value play in what figures to be a heavily bet race. A 35% career win rate is respectable in this company, and the average speed figure of 58 is among the best in the field — which matters enormously in a quick turf sprint. Flavien Prat picking this one up for Michael McCarthy suggests the connections see a forward move coming.

show12Sorrento SkyML 12/1

Sorrento Sky rates third in the field at 71.07 and opens at 12/1, giving you a chance to grab a strong value piece in your trifectas. Umberto Rispoli for Philip D'Amato is a proven combination on turf, and an average speed figure of 58 — matching the best in the race — means she has the raw numbers to fire. In a full gate of 18, pace scenarios get chaotic fast, and Sorrento Sky's speed could put her in a perfect stalking spot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 18 runners

Race 6

2:26 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

Two horses separate themselves from the pack at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this dirt stakes mile, setting up what projects as a battle royale between a short-priced morning-line favorite and a mid-price contender with strong credentials of his own.

win1Further AdoML 2/1

Further Ado opens at 2/1 with the top TrackWiz rating of 88.54 and a solid 40% career win rate over what figures to be a meaningful sample. Flavien Prat is aboard for Brad Cox, and at one mile on Keeneland's main track, that is a barn-and-rider combo that wins these races regularly. The average speed figure of 54 is in line with this field, but it's the combination of rating, connections, and overall class that makes Further Ado the clear top selection.

place7Bracket BusterML 7/2

Bracket Buster is the horse who figures to give Further Ado the most trouble, opening at 7/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 82.22. John Velazquez picks up the mount for Victoria Oliver, and a 25% career win rate belies what looks like a rising profile based on the rating. The average speed figure of 54 is competitive, and if Further Ado faces any pace pressure, Bracket Buster could be the one charging late.

show10Owen AlmightyML 10/1

Owen Almighty opens at 10/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 75.84 — third in the field — and a 26% career win rate that suggests he finds the winner's circle regularly without always topping his field. Luis Saez is aboard for Brian Lynch, and an average speed figure of 55 is actually the best among the full field. At double digits on the morning line, Owen Almighty is a live show play and trifecta piece who could sneak into the money at a big price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 7

3:04 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 3/16 mi · Turf

A globe-spanning turf route brings together European shippers, domestic contenders, and a pair of Walsh-trained horses that TrackWiz rates as the most likely threats — with the consensus morning-line picks among the longshots in a field where the public will load up on European imports.

win13Lush LipsML 12/1

Lush Lips is the top-rated active runner in this field at 73.96 — a number that stands above the morning-line favorites — and opens at 12/1, giving you a genuine overlay in a deep stakes event. A 50% career win rate and an average speed figure of 55 are both strong indicators that this horse belongs in turf routes at this level. Tyler Gaffalione takes the mount for Brendan Walsh, and Walsh has shown a strong ability to produce freshened horses at Keeneland in the fall. This is the kind of value play that makes turf stakes betting so rewarding.

place5KathynmarissaML 5/1

Kathynmarissa carries a 50% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 67.8, which ranks her second among the domestic runners in this field. Jose Ortiz picks her up for Chad Brown — and Brown's record with turf routers at Keeneland speaks for itself over many years. At 5/1 on the morning line, Kathynmarissa is a solid place anchor who has the class credentials and the connections to hit the board consistently.

show14StellifyML 12/1

Stellify opens at 12/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 60.05 and a 50% career win rate that makes her a sneaky good value play in the show slot. Flavien Prat aboard for Brad Cox gives Stellify a top-shelf team, and at a double-digit price, she adds terrific show value to trifecta constructions without breaking the bank. An average speed figure of 54 on turf is workable at this distance, and Cox horses tend to improve with experience in route races.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

Race 8

3:42 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A heavy favorite towers over this stakes sprint field — and TrackWiz ratings back the public's opinion convincingly — but two double-digit longshots with strong speed figures make this a race worth building an exotics ticket around.

win13EnglishmanML 4/5

Englishman is the most dominant favorite on the entire card, opening at 4/5 with a TrackWiz rating of 90 — a near-perfect score — and an 80% career win rate that is simply remarkable at any level of racing. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for Cherie DeVaux, and DeVaux has been in exceptional form throughout this meet. The average speed figure of 57 leads all active runners, and at 6 furlongs on dirt, this horse profiles as a pace-pressing machine who can be on or near the lead and dare anyone to catch him.

place5ListenupshanceML 12/1

Listenupshance opens at 12/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 65.03 — the second-best mark in the field after Englishman. A 38% career win rate is strong for a dirt sprinter at stakes level, and the average speed figure of 57 ties for the best in the race alongside Englishman and T O Elvis. Emisael Jaramillo for Doug O'Neill gives this one a capable team, and at 12/1, Listenupshance is the ideal place target if you're looking to beat the favorite's price into the exotics.

show7BuiltML 10/1

Built opens at 10/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 62.79 and a 46% career win rate — numbers that would top many allowance fields. Luis Saez gets on for Wayne Catalano, a barn that tends to show up ready at big meets. The average speed figure of 56 is competitive in this group, and in a race where Englishman will likely be bet to extremely short odds, Built offers terrific show value for bettors looking to construct a meaningful trifecta payout.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

Race 9

4:20 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

A turf mile stakes draws an international cast led by a heavily bet European shipper, but TrackWiz analysis flips the script — putting a domestic runner with a 58% career win rate at the top of the ratings and making this one of the card's most compelling upset angles.

win1DeterministicML 8/1

Deterministic heads our analysis with a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 and a 58% career win rate — the highest win percentage among active runners — while opening at 8/1 on a morning line dominated by European horses. Kendrick Carmouche is a savvy turf rider who knows how to navigate a full field at a mile, and Miguel Clement is a trainer who has quietly produced big performances at Keeneland fall meets. At 8/1, the value case is strong, and the numbers back it up.

place8Notable Speech (GB)ML 7/5

Notable Speech (GB) opens as the 7/5 morning-line favorite with a TrackWiz rating of 79.23 — nearly identical to our top pick — and a 60% career win rate that commands respect. William Buick is one of the most accomplished riders in global racing, and Charles Appleby's barn has thrived with European shippers at American turf events. Even if Deterministic outperforms the market, Notable Speech's class and connections make a placing near-certain.

show9RhetoricalML 8/1

Rhetorical opens at 8/1 — matching Deterministic's morning line — with a TrackWiz rating of 62.39 and a 58% career win rate, giving this race a fascinating dynamic with two domestic horses at the same price carrying the same win percentage. Jose Ortiz aboard for William Walden is a sharp pairing, and an average speed figure of 55 is right in the mix for a one-mile turf event. Rhetorical is the ideal third wheel in your trifecta construction and a legitimate show contender at a price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

Race 10

4:58 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Two scratches reduce this dirt stakes route to a lean but loaded field, where a pair of morning-line co-favorites separated by less than eight rating points set up what could be one of the card's most competitive exacta matchups.

win2NitrogenML 6/5

Nitrogen tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.71 and opens as the 6/5 morning-line favorite with a 50% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54. Jose Ortiz picks up the mount for Mark Casse, who also has Measure in the field — a rare two-entry situation that speaks to the barn's confidence in their top horse. At 1 1/8 miles on dirt, Nitrogen's combination of class and figures makes him the horse to beat, and at 6/5, he's deserving of the favorite's role.

place4Fully SubscribedML 8/5

Fully Subscribed is the natural rival here, opening at 8/5 with a TrackWiz rating of 82.46 and the field's best career win rate at 60%. Flavien Prat is aboard for Chad Brown — the same combination that has been lethal in dirt routes this season — and the average speed figure of 54 mirrors Nitrogen's, making this an honest battle of near-equals at the top. If the pace scenario favors a closer, Fully Subscribed looks like the horse who can run Nitrogen down.

show6MeasureML 20/1

Measure is the overlooked member of the Casse barn's double-entry, opening at 20/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 46.18. The 12% career win rate might look modest, but in a reduced field where the top two horses will be bet heavily, Measure offers show value at a price that could generate meaningful trifecta returns. Manuel Franco takes the mount, and with Casse sending out a stablemate, expect Measure to be well-prepared and track-fit for this spot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 11

5:36 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/2 mi · Turf

A 1.5-mile turf marathon — the longest race on the card — draws a large international field with several European shippers carrying no American speed figures, creating an unusual puzzle where TrackWiz sees two domestic longshots as the most projectable value plays.

win3Minaret StationML 15/1

Minaret Station is the TrackWiz top pick in Race 11 at 69.58 — the highest rating among all active runners in a field full of European unknowns — and opens at 15/1, which is genuinely exciting value for a horse this team believes in. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for William Walden, and Minaret Station's 44% career win rate and average speed figure of 55 both project well at a route distance on turf. When a horse with this kind of domestic form is overlaid at 15/1 against unproven shippers, that's where value bettors make their money.

place6Burnham SquareML 8/1

Burnham Square opens at 8/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 60.14 and a 43% career win rate — giving him the second-best rating among active runners while carrying a far more manageable morning-line price than Minaret Station. Brian Hernandez Jr. rides for Ian Wilkes, and an average speed figure of 54 at 1.5 miles on turf is a workable number in this field. Burnham Square is the ideal place anchor in your trifecta constructions alongside Minaret Station.

show12Diamond NecklaceML 3/1

Diamond Necklace opens as the 3/1 morning-line favorite — making her the shortest-priced horse in the race — with a TrackWiz rating of 56.67 and Christophe Soumillon in the irons for Aidan O'Brien. The public will make her the chalk, and O'Brien's record with turf routers at American meets commands attention. Even though her rating trails our top two picks, the market is rarely completely wrong about an O'Brien shipper, and she's worth including as the show safety in your exotic tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 15 runners

Race 12

6:16 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/4 mi · Dirt

The finale is a high-class 1.25-mile dirt stakes with multiple scratches thinning a strong field down to a manageable eight runners — and three horses with ratings in the 80s make this the most formful race of the closing sequence.

win2SovereigntyML 5/2

Sovereignty earns the top spot with a TrackWiz rating of 85.06 and a 58% career win rate — strong credentials in any stakes field. Junior Alvarado takes the mount for Bill Mott, one of the most respected trainers in American racing when it comes to route horses on dirt. An average speed figure of 54 at 1.25 miles suggests Sovereignty has the stamina to last, and at 5/2 on the morning line, she's fairly priced for a horse carrying these kinds of numbers into a manageable field.

place3Golden TempoML 5/1

Golden Tempo is separated from Sovereignty by less than a point in the TrackWiz ratings — 84.17 versus 85.06 — making this as tight a top-two matchup as you'll see anywhere on the card. A 57% career win rate is nearly identical to Sovereignty's, and Jose Ortiz aboard for Cherie DeVaux gives Golden Tempo a rider who has been among the best at this meet. At 5/1 on the morning line, Golden Tempo offers real exacta value as a near-equal to the top pick.

show7KnightsbridgeML 9/2

Knightsbridge brings a 66% career win rate to the table — the best of any active runner in this field — along with a TrackWiz rating of 80.76 and an average speed figure of 55 that leads the active runners. Luis Saez is aboard for Bill Mott, giving Mott two shots at the winner's circle in the finale. At 9/2 on the morning line, Knightsbridge offers tremendous show value and is a natural trifecta component with the top two, especially with Mott's stable depth backing him up.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Bottom line: Keeneland is serving up a Halloween card worthy of the occasion — plenty of stakes drama, a few overlay opportunities, and enough pace complexity to reward sharp handicapping over blind chalk-playing. Booth, Master Queen, and Overtime Bonus anchor the free picks, while Englishman and Nitrogen headline a premium card full of nuance. Get the complete analysis, pace projections, and exotic ticket builds by heading to TrackWiz Premium — and good luck out there today.

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