Horseshoe Indianapolis Picks & Predictions — November 9, 2026

Vienna Charm is a model of consistency right now: placed in 5 of the last 6 races, including three in a row heading into today, and owns a 66% in-the-money rate for the career along with 2 wins in 7 medium-distance starts. The concern is a recent pace speed ranking sixth in the field at 12.39 sec/furlong, which suggests she may need to come from off the pace rather than dictate. But with trainer Brian Waltz (B grade) and a jockey in Rodney Prescott who earns a B+, the connections support her consistency.

Speight Knight has quietly put together a strong profile for this race: 2 wins and placed in 4 of 6 at Horseshoe Indianapolis specifically, and 2 wins in 6 medium-distance races. A 33% career win rate and 66% in-the-money mark are eye-catching numbers, and trainer Tim Eggleston earns an A- alongside Fernando De La Cruz's A- jockey grade. At 2/1 on the morning line he's not a traditional show value, but his sim win share of 22.51% makes him a legitimate contender for the trifecta.

Conga is a first-time-at-distance type with no recent speed figure in the data, but the workout angle is legitimate — she ranked first in the field over the last month at 11.90 sec/furlong, suggesting she's fit and sharp. The key edge is the connections: trainer Brad H. Cox earns an A, and the jockey-trainer combo of Marcelino Pedroza Jr. and Cox has a 29% win rate and 64% in-the-money mark over the past year — that's one of the more potent duos on the card. With a 3/1 morning line and 15.30% sim win rate, she's worth including underneath.

Rocksie Girl slots into the show position with a third-place TrackWiz rating of 56.67 and the third-fastest recent race speed at 12.58 sec/furlong. Trainer William Walden earns an A, which helps offset a relatively thin record — she has not placed in her last start, so there's a form concern. The 3/1 morning-line price and 15.97% sim win share suggest the market respects her chances, making her a logical exotics anchor for the show position.

Magnus Crown is the only horse in this field with the fastest recent race speed — 12.72 sec/furlong tops the field — and comes in second on the TrackWiz ratings at 73.86. The in-the-money rate of 33% lifetime and a 17.23% sim win share both suggest consistent competitive ability. At 6/1 on the morning line, he's solid place value in an otherwise murky maiden turf field.

Zona Rosso hits the board in the show spot at 5/2 on the morning line — shorter odds than our win pick, which creates some interesting ticket-building possibilities. Jockey Orlando Mojica carries a 21% win rate and 56% in-the-money mark over the past year, and the horse's recent pace speed of 13.05 sec/furlong ranks third in the field. The concerns — no placements in the last 2 races and no money in 2 Horseshoe starts — are legitimate, but the connections and pace figure make her a reasonable exotics inclusion.

Mr. Sensei sits second on the TrackWiz ratings at 77.97 and brings a Horseshoe Indianapolis record worth noting: 1 win and placed in 3 of 4 starts at this track — he clearly knows this oval. The recent race speed of 12.14 sec/furlong ranks third in the field, and jockey Orlando Mojica holds a 21% win rate and 56% in-the-money mark over the past year. The 26% in-the-money career rate is a bit low compared to his rating, but the local track record and jockey upgrade make him a legitimate place contender.

American Bear has quietly been running into the money at a steady clip — placed in his last 4 consecutive races and in 4 of his last 6 overall, with a 38% in-the-money career rate. Jockey Yarmarie Correa is one of the meet's hotter riders, with a 24% win rate and an impressive 69% in-the-money mark over the past year. The one wrinkle is that American Bear is not using Lasix while 11 others in the field are — that medication angle is worth acknowledging. But the recent form trend is strong, and at 6/1 he's good show value.

Shuggy is the second-highest-rated horse in this field at 81.21 and ranks third for recent race speed at 12.54 sec/furlong. The 116-day layoff is a legitimate question mark — he may just be looking for a race to sharpen up — but horses returning from a brief freshening at this level often run their best. Trainer Cherie DeVaux gets a B- grade and jockey Axel Concepcion earns a B. At 3/1 on the morning line and a 22.64% sim win rate, the model views him as a co-favorite even if the layoff adds risk.

Guns Allowed is an interesting show play at 5/2 — a horse with the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.41 sec/furlong and the powerful Brad Cox (A grade trainer) in the corner. The jockey-trainer combination of Pedroza and Cox has a 29% win rate and 64% in-the-money mark over the past year — legitimately elite. The concerns are real: 247 days off (a significant freshening) and no placements in the last 2 races. Cox is known for bringing horses back ready, though, and the 15.97% sim win rate suggests the model believes in the talent level.

Young Angus brings arguably the most remarkable consistency stat on today's card: placed in all 6 of his dirt starts (1 win) and in all of his last 6 races — a 100% in-the-money rate on dirt is not something you see often. Trainer Randy Matthews earns an A- alongside jockey Joseph Bealmear's B+ grade. The 74.51 TrackWiz rating and 16.28% sim win share both reflect a horse who finds his way into the money with uncommon reliability at this level.

Silver Sterling comes in as the show pick with a solid 72.38 rating (third in the field) and the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.04 sec/furlong. The dirt record is legitimate: 3 wins and placed in 11 of 15 starts on the surface, and he's hit the board in his last 4 consecutive races — excellent recent form. The concern is age — he's 1.7 years older than the field average — but the form trajectory heading into today is pointing up, and at 10/1 the morning-line price is generous for a horse this competitive.

Rock City Kid is the most logical threat to Grey Eclipse, sitting second on the TrackWiz ratings at 64.42 with a solid dirt record of 2 wins in 6 starts and 2 wins in 3 sprint races — this distance is clearly his wheelhouse. Trainer Shannon McGovern earns an A grade, and jockey Rodney Prescott gets a B+. The 18.24% sim win rate makes him the clear second choice in the model, and at 7/2 on the morning line he's a natural place bet underneath the favorite.

Pray for Victory slots into the show position with an interesting angle: the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.23 sec/furlong, which is actually ahead of Grey Eclipse's figure. The TrackWiz rating of 53.43 sits third in the field, and the 45% in-the-money career rate shows this horse competes. Jockey Irving Moncada earns a B+ grade. At 10/1 on the morning line, the show price offers real value in exacta and trifecta tickets if you're using multiple horses underneath Grey Eclipse.

The Heart Wont Lie checks in second on the TrackWiz ratings at 80.75 and ranks second in the field for recent race speed at 11.81 sec/furlong — essentially a dead heat with Wr Smokin Train on that metric. Placed in 2 of 3 dirt starts and 2 of his last 3 races, the recent form is solid and the in-the-money rate of 66% matches the top pick. The concern is a Lasix edge — this horse is not using Lasix while 6 competitors in the field are. At 5/2 on the morning line, jockey Fernando Morin (B+ grade) gives this horse capable handling in a sprint where gate speed is everything.

One Sweet Hero is an interesting show play at 3/1 on the morning line, with connections that command respect: jockey Martin Munoz earns an A grade and trainer Ricardo Martinez earns an A. The career in-the-money rate is 20% — modest — and the concerns about only 1 placement in the last 5 races are real. But the 11.44% sim win rate and elite connections make this horse worth including in trifecta tickets in a 13-horse sprint where chaos is a factor.