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Horseshoe Indianapolis Picks & Predictions — November 5, 2026

November 5, 20269 racesAll Horseshoe Indianapolis picks

Best bets at Horseshoe Indianapolis today

Race 16Leo SpringsML 5/21:30 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 7 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Horseshoe Indianapolis: our top pick won 15 of 75 races (20%) and finished in the money in 44.

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Leo Springs is our best bet on today's free card — opening Race 1, a 6-furlong Starter Optional Claiming sprint on dirt, with the fastest recent speed figure in the field at 11.88 sec/furlong and a jockey-trainer combo that has hit the board 53% of the time over the past year. At 5/2 on the morning line, there's real value here.

The setting helps, too. It's a crisp, clear November afternoon at Horseshoe Indianapolis — 60°F and dry, which means a consistent, predictable dirt surface for the bulk of today's nine-race card. No rain, no excuses. Horses that can run their number should run it today.

The card has a nice mix — four dirt sprints, two turf routes at a mile, a quarter-horse dash in Race 9, and a couple of longer dirt routes to keep the multi-race wagers interesting. Race 7's Tarshea (7/5 ML, 37% sim win) and Race 5's Joe the Tailor (2/1 ML, 34% sim win) stand out as the card's most compelling premium plays, but we'll get to all of that below.

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Race 1

1:30 PM EST

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The opener is a Starter Optional Claiming sprint at 6 furlongs on dirt, and the TrackWiz ratings tell a lopsided story — Leo Springs sits atop the field with an 87.81 rating, a full 20 points clear of his nearest rival in what otherwise looks like a wide-open supporting cast.

win6Leo SpringsML 5/2

Leo Springs is the class of this field and it isn't particularly close. He checks in as the top-rated horse at 87.81 and leads all entrants with the fastest recent race speed at 11.88 seconds per furlong — that's the kind of raw pace that holds up in a 6-furlong sprint. The Mendoza-Haran jockey/trainer combo has posted a 17% win rate with 53% in-the-money finishes over the past year, giving the connections angle some teeth. Our simulations backed him up too — he won 29% of 10,000 runs, nearly double the morning line's implied probability at 5/2.

place1Bourbon CuriosityML 2/1

Bourbon Curiosity comes in as the morning line favorite at 2/1 and ranks second in the field on recent race speed (12.04 sec/furlong), giving him a legitimate early-pace presence. His workout tab is the best in the field over the last month at 11.95 sec/furlong, suggesting he's sharp and ready right now. The concern is a rough recent stretch — no money in the last three races — but with 5 wins and placing in 8 of 16 career dirt starts, the form line says he belongs here.

show3Commander StormML 4/1

Commander Storm offers some logical exotics coverage at 4/1. He ranks third in recent race speed (12.11 sec/furlong) and the Burgos-Haran jockey/horse combination carries a 14% win rate and 43% in-the-money mark — modest but workable numbers in a field where nobody outside Leo Springs is particularly dominant. The knock is a pedestrian 4-for-17 record at 6 furlongs, so he's more of a show/exotic play than a win threat.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Leo Springs29%
1Bourbon Curiosity21%
3Commander Storm17%

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Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 1 is the lone free look today, and it's a solid one. Leo Springs ranks first in the field for recent race speed and benefits from a jockey-trainer partnership that has quietly been one of the more reliable combos over the past twelve months — 17% wins and over half their starters finishing in the money. In a Starter Optional Claiming field, that consistency matters. Our TrackWiz simulation puts his win probability at 29.2%, well ahead of his 5/2 morning line, which signals genuine overlay potential.

The dry, firm conditions on the Horseshoe Indianapolis main track today should keep the playing field honest — no sloppy bias to worry about, no ground-dependent edge. What you see in the numbers is likely what you get. Leo Springs looks like a horse who can deliver his best today.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

2:02 PM EST

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Relentless Chick dominates the ratings in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, but the race has genuine depth underneath her — Imperial Merlot brings a two-race win streak, and Ekati Flatter owns a sterling record at this exact venue and distance, making exacta construction interesting.

win2Relentless ChickML 5/2

Relentless Chick is simply the most accomplished horse in this field. She carries an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — top of the field by a wide margin — and ranks second in recent race speed at 12.15 sec/furlong. The 57% career win rate and 57% in-the-money mark are exceptional numbers for a claiming race, and the Mendoza-Garcia jockey/trainer partnership has combined for a 25% win rate and 56% in-the-money finish rate over the past year. She won 32% of our 10,000 simulations, the clearest edge in this race.

place1MomentarioML 7/2

Momentario leads all horses in this field for recent race speed at 12.10 sec/furlong — a meaningful edge in a short sprint where early pace matters. He's also handled this exact distance before, with a win and placing in 2 of 3 races at 5½ furlongs. The only flag is rest time — he's coming in at 28 days when he typically performs better on 30 or more — so watch him in the paddock, but his speed figure profile alone warrants a place ticket.

show7Imperial MerlotML 3/1

Imperial Merlot rides in on a two-race winning streak and has placed in each of his last two starts, bringing genuine momentum into this spot. He checks in third in the TrackWiz ratings at 60.75 and owns a 36% career win rate with a 54% in-the-money mark on dirt — solid numbers at this level. The concern is a short 16-day turnaround when he typically needs more time, but trainers sometimes fast-track horses who are running their best, and right now Imperial Merlot is doing exactly that.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Relentless Chick32%
7Imperial Merlot18%
1Momentario18%

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Race 3

2:32 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile turf claimer with an intriguing top of the ratings — Justhappytobehere leads on the TrackWiz model, but Nine Questions and Jailhouse Justice are right behind him, and both have solid recent form, making this a race where the pace of play up front could matter a great deal.

win2JusthappytobehereML 7/2

Justhappytobehere earns the top TrackWiz rating at 86.35 — a healthy gap over the rest of the field — and has shown up with money finishes in 2 of his last 3 races, with consecutive in-the-money runs heading into today. He ranks second in recent race speed at 12.13 sec/furlong on a turf mile, which is exactly where you want to see recent figures on this surface. The one concern is a claiming price bump from $15,000 to $17,500, meaning connections believe he can compete at a higher level — often a positive sign. He won 23% of our 10,000 simulations.

place7Nine QuestionsML 7/2

Nine Questions comes in with the second-best TrackWiz rating at 77.00 and brings the most consistent recent form in the race — he's hit the board in each of his last three starts and 4 of his last 6. His 2-win, 7-of-13 placing record on turf speaks to genuine surface aptitude. At a morning line of 7/2, there's not a ton of overlay here, but as a place horse in a turf race where the top-rated horse is vulnerable to class questions, Nine Questions is a logical landing spot.

show6Jailhouse JusticeML 5/1

Jailhouse Justice ranks third in the TrackWiz ratings at 75.98 and owns the top recent race speed figure in the field at 12.12 sec/furlong — that number on a turf mile is a genuine positive. He's placed in 4 of his last 6 starts and carries 6 wins and 14 total placings from 24 career turf starts, giving him more turf experience and results than almost anyone else in here. At 5/1 on the morning line, he rounds out a solid show selection in a race where the top three in the ratings are separated by less than 11 points.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Justhappytobehere23%
4Mackadoo18%
7Nine Questions16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

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Race 4

3:03 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Starry Eye Justice owns the top rating in this 6-furlong dirt claimer and the best recent speed figure in the field, but Aunt Leila's Sky ships in off a win and carries the second-best rating — this looks like a two-horse race at the top with a show price underneath worth considering.

win6Starry Eye JusticeML 5/2

Starry Eye Justice is the clear top pick on the TrackWiz model — 87.81 rating, top of the field, and she backs it up with the fastest recent race speed figure at 12.01 sec/furlong. She's placed in each of her last two starts and brings a 1-4 dirt placing record that's been trending upward. The price bump from $12,500 to $15,000 is a mild concern, but trainer Randy Klopp holds a B+ grade and presumably sends horses up only when they're in top form. She won 26% of our simulations — the clearest advantage in this field.

place8Aunt Leila's SkyML 9/5

Aunt Leila's Sky ships in as the morning line second choice at 9/5 and brings the form that justifies the low odds — she won her last race on October 8th and has placed in each of her last two starts. Her 2-win, 3-of-5 dirt record and 33% career win rate are the kind of numbers that hold up in a claimer at this level. With a Grade-A jockey in Fernando De La Cruz aboard and trainer Stephen Fosdick holding a B+ grade, the connections are as good as any in this race.

show7I'malittlethirstyML 12/1

I'malittlethirsty is quietly one of the better-form horses in this field at a price that might be overlooked. He's placed in 4 of his last 6 starts, ranks second in recent race speed (12.22 sec/furlong), and owns a 2-win, 6-of-11 dirt placing record. The claiming price bump to $15,000 is a flag, but his recent consistency makes him a legitimate show play — especially at 12/1 on the morning line. Mitchell Murrill (B+ jockey grade) gives him a capable pilot.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Starry Eye Justice26%
8Aunt Leila's Sky24%
1Over and Above11%

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Race 5

3:33 PM EST

Allowance · 5 fur · Turf

Joe the Tailor dominates this 5-furlong turf allowance from every analytical angle — top rating, top speed figure, elite connections — and while Countthecarats and Explosively give the race some structure underneath him, this card sets up as a potential single if you're playing late Pick 4s.

win2Joe the TailorML 2/1

Joe the Tailor is as strong a top selection as you'll find on this card. He carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest in Race 5 — and posts the fastest recent race speed figure in the field at 11.79 sec/furlong. He's placed in 5 of his last 6 starts, showing elite recent form, and both his jockey (Orlando Mojica, A- grade, 21% win rate, 56% in-the-money over the past year) and trainer (Armando Hernandez, A- grade) are top-shelf. He won 34% of our 10,000 simulations — the most dominant sim performance on today's card.

place3CountthecaratsML 5/1

Countthecarats ranks second in the TrackWiz ratings at 80.42 and has been consistent of late — placing in each of his last three starts and 3 of his last 5. His recent race speed (11.99 sec/furlong) is the second best in the field, suggesting he's running well right now. The turf record is thin (1 of 4 placing), so he's not a lock on this surface, but his recent figures and consistent form make him the logical underneath horse at 5/1.

show5ExplosivelyML 7/2

Explosively is an interesting show play at 7/2 morning line. He ranks third in recent race speed at 12.16 sec/furlong and has gone 2-for-4 placing on turf — a respectable surface record. Worth noting: he's been averaging longer races recently and today is a compact 5-furlong sprint, so the distance cutback is a question mark. Still, the speed figure is real, and in a race where you're likely wheeling Joe the Tailor on top, Explosively is a sensible show horse for exacta/trifecta coverage.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Joe the Tailor34%
3Countthecarats20%
5Explosively16%

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Race 6

4:04 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers can be chaotic, but Visual stands out from this nine-horse field with a commanding TrackWiz rating and the best recent speed figure — the question is whether a horse this well-regarded will offer any value at 5/2, or whether the market has already found him.

win4VisualML 5/2

Visual is the standout in this maiden claimer. He tops the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and posts the fastest recent race speed at 12.36 sec/furlong — a meaningful edge in a 6-furlong sprint. He's placed in 4 of 5 career dirt starts and has hit the board in each of his last 3 races, which is about as consistent as you'll find in a maiden field. At 5/2 morning line, the market has taken notice, but his simulation results — winning 30% of 10,000 runs — suggest he's worth playing even at a moderate price.

place2Z's FireballML 6/1

Z's Fireball brings a 6/1 morning line and an interesting profile for a place ticket. He has the third-best recent race speed figure in the field (12.97 sec/furlong) and the best workout over the past month at 12.00 sec/furlong — that fitness angle matters for a horse coming off a 184-day layoff who appears to be training well heading into today. With an A-grade jockey in Fernando De La Cruz and trainer Stephen Fosdick holding a B+ grade, the connections are among the best in this race.

show7Dotties Blue MoneyML 5/1

Dotties Blue Money represents a mild class drop — the claiming price came down from $20,000 to $15,000 — which is a classic spot for trainers to find a soft spot for a maiden that hasn't broken through. He's placed in 4 of his career sprint starts, though that one concern about limited sprint success (1 of 5) keeps him in the show column rather than a bolder position. At 5/1, he's good value as a trifecta piece in a wide-open maiden race where anything can happen.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Visual30%
2Z's Fireball13%
5Officer Gambill12%

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Race 7

4:35 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Tarshea enters this one-mile turf claimer as a heavy favorite with legitimate credentials to justify the short price — a 89.42 rating and 75% in-the-money career mark are elite numbers — but the supporting cast has some live underlays worth targeting in exotics, particularly Channah Del Mar and Silvertown.

win2TarsheaML 7/5

Tarshea is as close to a slam-dunk as you'll find at a racetrack. She tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.42 — the highest single-horse rating on today's entire card — and her 50% career win rate and 75% in-the-money mark are exceptional. She's placed in each of her last three starts and ranks second in recent race speed at 11.93 sec/furlong. With both jockey Fernando De La Cruz (A grade) and trainer Brad Cox (A grade) aboard, the connections match the form. She won 37% of our 10,000 simulations. Yes, the 7/5 morning line is short, but sometimes the right play is the obvious one.

place3Channah Del MarML 8/1

Channah Del Mar is the value play underneath Tarshea. She's placed in 4 of her last 5 races and has placed in 3 consecutive outings heading into today — that's hard to ignore in a race where she's going off at 8/1 on the morning line. Her 1-win, 5-of-6 placing record at exactly one mile is excellent distance-specific form. The concerns are real — a claiming price jump from $12,500 to $25,000 is steep, and she's short on rest at 23 days — but her recent form and mile record make her a logical place ticket.

show4SilvertownML 6/1

Silvertown sneaks in here as a show play with some compelling angles. He's placed in 4 of his last 6 starts and owns a perfect 3-win, 4-of-4 placing record at one mile — that's a flawless distance profile. He also won his last race on October 21st, bringing fresh momentum to today. The massive claiming price jump from $5,000 to $25,000 is a significant flag and the biggest reason he's not higher in our picks, but as a show selection in a race you're likely anchoring with Tarshea, Silvertown's one-mile form makes him worth including.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Tarshea37%
4Silvertown11%
8Sea Ride11%

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Race 8

5:07 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

This 1-mile-70-yard dirt claimer is headlined by a classic TrackWiz standout vs. live price battle — Audubon Bay tops the ratings but comes in with a modest in-the-money rate at this oval, while Dream Fast drops sharply in class and brings a potent jockey to the party at a workable 5/1.

win9Audubon BayML 5/2

Audubon Bay tops the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and benefits from a claiming price drop — down from $15,000 to $7,500 — which is exactly the kind of spot where horses with class can dominate softer competition. He ranks third in recent race speed at 12.88 sec/furlong, and the Ulloa-Gorham jockey/trainer combination has posted a 20% win rate and 53% in-the-money rate over the past year. He won 25% of our 10,000 simulations. The concern is a limited 1-of-4 record at Horseshoe Indianapolis, so keep that in mind if you're leaning heavily on him.

place4Dream FastML 5/1

Dream Fast is a live price at 5/1 and arguably one of the most interesting horses in this race. He also drops from $15,000 to $7,500 and brings Brody Martinez — a Grade-A jockey with a 23% win rate and 58% in-the-money finish rate over the past year — into the irons. He ranks second in the TrackWiz ratings at 80.14. The knock is a short 28-day turnaround when he typically performs better with more rest, but the class drop and jockey upgrade are real positive angles. He's a strong place play.

show5ChabeloML 8/1

Chabelo comes in as the third-best rated horse at 78.45 and brings a fresh win — he won his last start on October 22nd. He ranks second in recent race speed at 12.75 sec/furlong and the jockey/horse combination has a 11% win rate and 34% in-the-money, which is modest but workable in a field this competitive. The main concern is a 3-of-13 placing record at Horseshoe Indianapolis, suggesting he's struggled at this oval specifically. That said, his recent form and speed figures make him a reasonable show play in what projects as a complicated race.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

9Audubon Bay25%
4Dream Fast18%
5Chabelo14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

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Race 9

5:36 PM EST

Allowance · 330 yd · Dirt

The finale is a 330-yard quarter-horse sprint on dirt — a blink-and-you'll-miss-it format where early speed and recent form are everything — and Flyin Cowgirl owns the top TrackWiz rating and the second-best recent speed figure in a field that has legitimate depth from Two through Five.

win7Flyin CowgirlML 3/1

Flyin Cowgirl is the class of the closing race. She tops the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and posts the second-fastest recent speed figure in the field at 11.43 sec/furlong — excellent for a 330-yard dash. The jockey/trainer combination of Luis Eduardo Luna Diaz and Tim Eggleston has combined for a 22% win rate and 52% in-the-money rate over the past year, and her jockey individually carries a 19% win rate and 48% in-the-money mark. Our simulations gave her 25% of 10,000 wins — the highest in the race. In a sprint this short, raw speed and form are what matters most, and she brings both.

place4Mg FrescaML 9/2

Mg Fresca ranks second in the TrackWiz ratings at 75.29 and brings genuine consistency — she's placed in 4 of her last 6 starts and owns a 2-win, 12-of-18 placing record on dirt, which is a substantial body of work showing she competes well on this surface. She ranks third in recent race speed at 11.51 sec/furlong, right in the mix for a 330-yard sprint. The one flag is that she's not using Lasix while six horses in this race are — that's a minor but real consideration in a field where medication patterns can influence performance.

show2Three Eyed CandyML 5/2

Three Eyed Candy brings a 5-race consecutive in-the-money streak heading into today — she's placed in each of her last 4 races and 4 of her last 6. With a 28% career win rate and 57% in-the-money mark on dirt, her consistency is genuine. Trainer Claudio Barraza holds an A- grade, one of the better trainer marks in this field. At 5/2 on the morning line she's not exactly a price play, but as a show and exotics horse in the nightcap — especially with the in-the-money streak intact — she warrants inclusion.

We ran Race 9 10,000 times. Most wins:

7Flyin Cowgirl25%
2Three Eyed Candy21%
4Mg Fresca16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Bottom line for today at Horseshoe Indianapolis: Leo Springs is the free best bet — fast recent numbers, a reliable connections angle, and morning-line value in a manageable Starter Optional Claiming sprint. Beyond Race 1, the card has depth, with several strong premium plays our TrackWiz analysis has identified across the turf routes and the closing dirt route in Race 8. Grab the full card breakdown with a Premium subscription and go into post time with a plan — not a guess.

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