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Horseshoe Indianapolis Picks & Predictions — October 22, 2026

October 22, 20269 racesAll Horseshoe Indianapolis picks

It's a beautiful Thursday at Horseshoe Indianapolis — clear skies, 69°F, and the kind of crisp fall afternoon that makes turf racing absolutely sing. Conditions couldn't be much better heading into a nine-race card that mixes maiden claimers, allowance company, and a pair of turf routes that could produce some serious fireworks.

What makes today's card worth your attention? Three of the nine races go on the grass, and with the turf course expected to be firm and fast under these conditions, pace scenarios on those routes are going to be critical. Speed figures alone won't tell the whole story today — where horses draw in the gate and how the early fractions set up will matter just as much.

We've got three free previews unlocked for everyone and six premium deep-dives behind the paywall. Whether you're a casual player looking to cash a win bet or a grinder hunting multi-race sequences, there's plenty to work with today.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint where TrackWiz's model separates one horse from the field by a wide margin — but two double-digit longshots lurk in the exotics.

win1Movin OutML 9/5

Movin Out draws the rail and carries an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — a full 25 points clear of the next closest horse in this field. That kind of separation in a maiden claimer is meaningful, and Joseph M. Romero gets a prime inside post to work with at 6 furlongs. The morning line of 9/5 reflects public confidence, but this rating gap suggests the odds may still be fair. Trainer Joseph D. Davis puts this one in a spot where the horse can fire its best effort.

place8CoaxedML 10/1

Coaxed is worth a serious look at 10/1 on the morning line — this horse posts the field's top average speed figure at 54, a tick above the cluster sitting at 53. Trainer John Haran and jockey Amir Mendoza team up from post 8, and the rating of 63.95 ranks second overall. At double-digit odds in a short-field maiden claimer, Coaxed represents genuine place value.

show4ChabeloML 5/1

Chabelo rates third in this field at 58.33 with a 5/1 morning line, giving you a fair-priced show option. Micah Meeks takes the mount for trainer Miguel Angel Silva, and Chabelo's average speed of 52 is just a tick off the field median but nothing that should get him buried in a wide-open maiden field. Use him underneath in exactas and trifectas to collect if the chalk runs into trouble.

Race 2

6:37 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt claimer with a hidden top pick buried at 5/1 that TrackWiz rates well above morning-line favorites — this is a value-heavy race with a legitimate longshot case to be made.

win7Race Day RebalML 5/1

Race Day Rebal is the pick here at 5/1, carrying an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — highest in the field by a comfortable margin. Trainer Janey Adams puts jockey Sara Hess on a horse that has converted 12% of its career starts into wins, a respectable clip at this level. Over a mile of dirt, pace scenario matters, and a 5/1 number on your top-rated horse is exactly the kind of overlay the TrackWiz model is designed to find. Don't let the morning line fool you — this one belongs at a shorter price.

place3Little JakeML 7/2

Little Jake rates 70.85 and carries a 10% career win rate into a field where the favorites are far from dominant. Amir Mendoza, who also rides in Race 1, jumps on for trainer Genaro Garcia — a barn that shows up ready. The 7/2 morning line reflects legitimate respect from the oddsmaker, and a one-mile trip over dirt suits a horse that figures to have tactical speed.

show4Gettysburg AddressML 4/1

Gettysburg Address matches Little Jake nearly point-for-point with a 70.62 TrackWiz rating, and a 15% career win rate is among the best in the field. Victor Lara gets the mount for trainer Cipriano Contreras at 4/1, and the horse's average speed of 53 keeps him competitive across the pace scenario. A solid exotic anchor at a fair price.

Race 3

7:11 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open turf allowance with a standout atop the TrackWiz ratings but a compelling supporting cast — Grey Eclipse's elite win rate makes this race more interesting than it looks on paper.

win10Vienna CharmML 7/2

Vienna Charm tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and posts a 25% career win rate, making her one of the more reliable profiles in the field. Rodney A. Prescott gets the call for trainer Brian Waltz, a strong jockey-trainer combination on a horse that figures to handle the one-mile turf distance well. The 7/2 morning line is honest money for the top-rated horse, and there's no reason to look past her. She's the anchor of any exotic sequence through this race.

place3My Lunar CharmML 3/1

My Lunar Charm is the other legitimate main contender here, rating 75.99 with a 15% career win rate for trainer Stephen V. Fosdick. Irving Moncada takes the mount, and at 3/1 on the morning line this is your most likely exacta partner with the top pick. The average speed figure of 53 mirrors the field median, so the edge comes from overall class profile rather than pure speed.

show5Grey EclipseML 8/1

Grey Eclipse is the number that catches your eye on a second look — a 33% career win rate is elite by any standard at this level, and an average speed figure of 55 leads all starters in the field. Joseph D. Ramos rides for trainer Randy L. Klopp, and the 8/1 morning line feels generous for a horse with that kind of conversion rate. Plug Grey Eclipse into your trifectas as a live show contender.

Our three free races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — give you a nice cross-section of the card right out of the gate. Movin Out opens the day in a maiden claimer at 9/5 on the morning line, carrying our highest free-race rating at 88.83, and on a fast dirt track under clear skies, front-running types in these shorter maiden sprints tend to get every advantage. In Race 2, Race Day Rebal jumps out at 5/1 — that's the kind of morning line that gets our attention in a claiming route, where a legitimate contender at double-digit morning line odds can mean real value at the windows. Then Race 3 shifts us to the turf for the first time, where Vienna Charm at 7/2 headlines what should be a sharp allowance field on what figures to be a lively grass course this afternoon.

The connective thread across these three free picks? All three are on surfaces that should be playing true today — no rain, no slop, no excuses. Clean trips and honest fractions should let the best horses surface.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Delta Tau Chi dominates the TrackWiz model with a 50% career win rate, but a tight cluster of three horses between 58 and 59 rating points sets up a competitive exacta underneath.

win1Delta Tau ChiML 3/1

Delta Tau Chi is a cut above in this allowance optional claiming sprint — an 87.08 TrackWiz rating leads the field, but the 50% career win rate is the number that really stands out. Half of all career starts resulting in wins is extraordinary for any horse at any level. Alberto Burgos gets a prime inside draw from the rail for trainer Randy L. Klopp, and an average speed figure of 56 ties for the field's best. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a justified favorite that doesn't require much faith.

place7Tiz AuthorityML 5/1

Tiz Authority slots in at 59.66 rating with a 25% career win rate and a 56 average speed — matching Delta Tau Chi's top speed figure from a different post position. Mitchell Murrill picks up the mount for trainer Chris A. Hartman at 5/1, offering solid place value. This horse has the class and the turn of foot to be sitting right behind the favorite at the top of the stretch.

show6Sir GallivantML 7/2

Sir Gallivant rates 58.73 and carries a 20% career win rate for trainer John Haran, with Amir Mendoza taking over in the irons. The 7/2 morning line makes this one of the shorter-priced show plays on the card, and the 56 average speed ties the field's best alongside Delta Tau Chi and Tiz Authority. Use Sir Gallivant underneath in exactas and as the likely third wheel in trifecta combos.

Race 5

8:19 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A full field MSW on the turf where the TrackWiz model flips the morning line on its head — our top-rated horse goes postward at 15/1 while the public looks elsewhere.

win9Cold JusticeML 15/1

Cold Justice is the TrackWiz value play of the race, posting a 69.58 rating — best in the field — despite a 15/1 morning line that suggests the public isn't paying attention. Joseph D. Ramos picks up the mount for trainer Rodolphe Brisset, a well-respected conditioner who knows how to place horses. In a maiden special weight on turf, trainer pedigree matters, and Brisset's presence at this price is an angle worth backing. At 15/1, even a smaller win bet returns meaningful dollars.

place1Razor RocketteML 4/1

Razor Rockette comes in as the TrackWiz place pick with a 55.0 rating and the backing of trainer Brad H. Cox — one of the most respected names in the game at any level. Fernando De La Cruz gets the mount from post 1, and while the 4/1 morning line reflects public support, Cox horses in maiden turf spots tend to be well-prepared first or second out. Solid place choice to pair with the longshot win pick.

show5Have HopeML 6/1

Have Hope rates 54.66, just a fraction behind Razor Rockette, and comes in at 6/1 for trainer Joe Sharp with Declan Cannon aboard. Sharp is another nationally recognized conditioner, and having two respected barns among your top three picks in a maiden turf race gives the ticket some structural backbone. At 6/1, there's show value here if the race plays out as our model projects.

Race 6

8:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Two horses rated in the mid-80s dominate the TrackWiz model in this one-mile dirt claimer, setting up a potentially chalky exacta — but the 5/1 overlay is the one to beat.

win6TheoreticallyML 4/1

Theoretically leads the TrackWiz ratings at 85.04 with a 16% career win rate, and Amir Mendoza gets the mount for trainer Genaro Garcia — a combination that's been active throughout the card today. The 4/1 morning line is honestly priced for a horse sitting atop the model, and an average speed figure of 53 keeps pace with the field median. In a claiming field where most horses rate well below 70, this horse's separation is significant.

place5What About NowML 5/1

What About Now runs Theoretically close at 84.17 rating and posts the field's top average speed figure of 55 — a genuine pace threat that could put pressure on anything near the lead. Orlando Mojica picks up the mount for trainer Tim Eggleston at 5/1 on the morning line, which feels like mild overlay for a horse with this kind of model support. If Theoretically stumbles or gets caught wide, What About Now is right there to capitalize.

show4Maximum SpiritML 7/2

Maximum Spirit carries the third-highest rating in the field at 77.51 with a 13% career win rate for trainer Tianna Richardville. Fernando De La Cruz gets the mount from post 4, a good inside position in a one-mile dirt race. The 7/2 morning line suggests the public likes this horse too, and the rating gap between this trio and the rest of the field makes the show position feel like a near-lock for trifecta construction.

Race 7

9:24 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

Which Side R U On looks like the class of this turf allowance field with a 33% career win rate, but the pace could get interesting with multiple closers lurking at value prices.

win4Which Side R U OnML 5/2

Which Side R U On is the standout here — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate are dominant numbers in any allowance field. Santo Sanjur picks up the mount for trainer Anthony J. Granitz, and the 5/2 morning line reflects genuine confidence from the morning-line maker. An average speed figure of 54 sits right with the field, meaning this horse wins on class and consistency, not just pure pace. This is one of the stronger top-pick profiles on the card today.

place8Shiesty to ChaseML 9/2

Shiesty to Chase rates 63.53 and comes in with a 12% career win rate for trainer Michael Weaver — a nationally prominent conditioner who doesn't ship horses to Indiana to finish second. Alexander Crispin gets the mount at 9/2 on the morning line, offering real place value behind the heavy favorite. In a turf race with a good-sized field, pace scenarios can shuffle things up, and Weaver's horse should be running late.

show5Henry the HankML 10/1

Henry the Hank is the longshot show play here at 10/1 morning line, carrying a 59.02 rating and an 18% career win rate. Mitchell Murrill rides for trainer Jonathan Nance, and a 54 average speed keeps this one competitive from a pure pace standpoint. In a turf allowance with multiple 50s and 60s cluttering the mid-range, Henry the Hank brings enough upside to justify show interest and trifecta use.

Race 8

9:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Genaro Garcia's barn loads up with two horses in this allowance mile, and they're both near the top of the TrackWiz model — setting up a potentially lucrative exacta within the same shedrow.

win10JazzoleML 5/1

Jazzole is the top pick at 81.96 TrackWiz rating, and that 35% career win rate is elite company for an allowance field — more than one in three starts results in a win. Amir Mendoza gets the call for trainer Genaro Garcia, who also runs Sir Bahjy in the same race, suggesting this barn is confident in their two-horse attack. An average speed figure of 53 matches the field median, but it's the conversion rate and model score that make Jazzole stand apart from the field.

place9Sir BahjyML 3/1

Sir Bahjy rates 80.02 — just a tick behind Jazzole — and brings a 15% career win rate for the same Genaro Garcia barn. Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. gets the mount from post 9, and the 3/1 morning line makes this the public's choice. With two strong Garcia runners in the same race, there's a genuine argument both horses can hit the board together, and backing the exacta both ways makes sense at these prices.

show8Fountain RunML 15/1

Fountain Run is the longshot show play here at 15/1 on the morning line, but a 69.58 TrackWiz rating and a 29% career win rate tell a different story than the odds suggest. Jane Elliott rides for trainer Anna M. Meah, and this horse's career win percentage is among the highest in the field. In a race where the top two picks come from the same barn and might run as an entry, Fountain Run could be the overlooked show option that pays well.

Race 9

10:22 PM EDT

Maiden · 330 yd · Dirt

A short 330-yard maiden dirt sprint — quarter horse distance — where the odds board flips from the TrackWiz model, giving sharp players a chance to get paid on the top-rated horse at 8/1.

win9Ocean MasterML 8/1

Ocean Master tops the TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 despite going postward at 8/1 morning line — a significant gap between model confidence and public expectation. Diego Villamil Bocanegra rides for trainer Natasha Perez, and in a field where no horse has a recorded average speed figure, ratings carry even more weight than usual. At 8/1 for the top-rated horse in a sprint maiden, this is precisely the kind of overlay the TrackWiz model is built to surface.

place6Thunder BayML 7/5

Thunder Bay rates 79.11 — nearly identical to Ocean Master — and draws the short price at 7/5 on the morning line, reflecting strong morning-line support from the oddsmaker. Irving Moncada rides for trainer Joseph D. Davis, who already has horses in earlier races on the card today. The model essentially calls this a dead heat at the top, so backing Thunder Bay for place is a sensible hedge if you're playing the longshot to win.

show7Jess Is UpML 15/1

Jess Is Up is the surprise third pick at 15/1 with a 57.56 TrackWiz rating — third-highest in the field and comfortably ahead of most of the remaining starters. Luis Eduardo Luna Diaz rides for trainer Tim Eggleston, who saddles Streakin Miss Jessie in the same race. In a maiden sprint where the outcome is genuinely unpredictable, Jess Is Up at 15/1 represents the kind of show overlay that can turn a modest investment into a nice trifecta payout.

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Bottom line: Horseshoe Indianapolis is dealing a clean, fast card on a gorgeous October afternoon, and there are legitimate angles across all nine races. Movin Out, Race Day Rebal, and Vienna Charm headline the free plays — all three carry solid TrackWiz ratings and clear paths to victory. The premium card adds Which Side R U On as the marquee selection of the day and unpacks the Cold Justice longshot story that could be the ticket-buster of the afternoon. Full card analysis is waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz Premium — good luck today, and may your tickets cash clean.

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