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Horseshoe Indianapolis Picks & Predictions — August 19, 2026

August 19, 202610 racesAll Horseshoe Indianapolis picks

We're heading to Horseshoe Indianapolis for a full 10-race card on Wednesday, August 19, and the conditions are about as cooperative as you'll get in the Midwest this time of year — cloudy skies and a comfortable 78°F mean the track should be playing fair and fast all afternoon. No weather excuses today. Horses that can run will run.

The card is a nice mix of conditions, ranging from maiden claimers and maiden special weights for first-timers to open allowance routes for the more seasoned horses in the barn. There's sprint action, route races, and even a 300-yard quarter-horse style dash in Race 10 to close things out. In other words, plenty of angles to dig into no matter what kind of bettor you are.

TrackWiz has analysis on all 10 races. The first three are on the house — free picks for everyone. Races 4 through 10 are unlocked for premium subscribers, and trust us, that's where some of the day's most interesting plays are hiding.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint where TrackWiz's model finds a massive rating gap between the top pick and the rest of the field — but maiden races on the dirt can always spring a surprise debut.

win7Start OutML 9/2

Start Out (#7) is the standout in our model, posting a field-best TrackWiz rating of 84.9 — more than 20 points clear of the second-best horse. Trainer Genaro Garcia puts Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. in the irons, a sharp jockey booking that signals connections are pointed to win. The 9/2 morning line feels generous for a horse this dominant in the ratings, and at six furlongs on the Horseshoe dirt, this looks like a prime spot to get off the maiden. Best bet of the race.

place1CoaxedML 6/1

Coaxed (#1) is the clear second horse in our model with a rating of 63.71, representing a significant step back from Start Out but a notable gap above the rest of the pack. Trainer John Haran also has Amazing Mike in the race, which suggests he's throwing a couple darts — but Coaxed draws the rail and shows an average speed figure of 54, keeping pace with the top horses in the field. At 6/1 on the morning line, the place payoff could be juicy if the top pick fires.

show8SinatraML 3/1

Sinatra (#8) checks in at a 48.43 rating and carries the 3/1 favorite tag from the morning line, suggesting the public will load up here despite our model preferring two others. Jockey Summer Pauly and trainer Ed Moger, Jr. form a familiar connection, and the average speed figure of 54 is on par with the top contenders. In maiden races where chaos is always a factor, Sinatra's public support makes him a reasonable show hedge in exacta and trifecta coverage.

Race 2

6:41 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse allowance sprint at 5.5 furlongs that sets up as a battle between a clear TrackWiz model favorite and a handful of live price horses — including a potential big-price show ticket.

win8Willy's in ChargeML 3/1

Willy's in Charge (#8) leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08, the highest mark in this allowance field by a comfortable margin. Trained by Randy L. Klopp and ridden by Alberto Burgos, this horse also owns a 25% career win rate — solid credentials for an allowance route. The 3/1 morning line is fair given the model edge, and the average speed figure of 54 is competitive. When the top-rated horse also has class-appropriate numbers, you ride that wave.

place3Tap Tap Tap It InML 9/2

Tap Tap Tap It In (#3) earned a 79.32 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — and actually leads all horses with a 55 average speed figure. The 9/2 morning line offers a touch of value for a horse that clearly fires fast fractions. Trainer Tim Eggleston saddles Joseph D. Ramos, and while the 7% career win rate is modest, it's not uncommon for a horse to underperform on raw win percentage while still delivering strong figures.

show5Indy LakeML 12/1

Indy Lake (#5) is our value play in the show slot, carrying a 12/1 morning line that looks wildly out of step with a 33% career win rate — the best mark in the field. Trainer Miguel Angel Silva puts Micah Meeks up, and while the average speed figure of 51 is a tick below the top contenders, that win percentage tells you this horse finds a way to get there. At those odds in a nine-horse field, tossing Indy Lake into exotics is a no-brainer.

Race 3

7:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Two powerhouse horses nearly dead-even at the top of the TrackWiz model set up a potential duel in this six-furlong allowance — and the morning line has them bracketing each other nicely at 3/1 and 5/2.

win6Perfect AudibleML 3/1

Perfect Audible (#6) edges out with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating to lead the field by a razor-thin margin and comes with serious connections — trainer Steven M. Asmussen puts his own son Erik Asmussen in the saddle, a combination that typically signals a confident, win-oriented effort. The 18% career win rate is respectable at the allowance level, and an average speed figure of 54 is right in the mix. Asmussen is one of the most accomplished trainers in the country, and when he sends one out here, it's worth taking seriously.

place3Royal SapphireML 5/2

Royal Sapphire (#3) is separated from the top pick by less than a single rating point at 86.39, making this effectively a two-horse race at the top of the model. What stands out is a 33% career win rate — the highest in this field — suggesting this horse delivers when the conditions are right. Summer Pauly gets the call for trainer Genaro Garcia at a 5/2 morning line, and in a six-furlong dirt race, the pace scenario could easily set up for Royal Sapphire to fire late if Perfect Audible goes for the lead.

show5TazzyML 9/2

Tazzy (#5) profiles as a legitimate third wheel here, posting a 54.58 TrackWiz rating that separates nicely from the rest of the mid-pack. The 18% career win rate combined with the top-tier 56 average speed figure — tied for best in the race — suggests this horse can run with the leaders in terms of raw pace. Trainer Antonio Duran and jockey Santo Sanjur team up at a workable 9/2 number, making Tazzy a solid show ticket and a useful piece in trifecta construction.

Our three free races cover the opening acts of the card, and they're worth your attention. Start Out kicks things off in the Maiden Claiming sprint at 9/2 — solid value for a horse our models like in a wide-open field. Race 2 brings Willy's in Charge into a 5½-furlong allowance, and at 3/1 on the morning line, we see a horse with real upside in a short sprint format. Then in Race 3, Perfect Audible mirrors that same 3/1 morning line in a 6-furlong allowance — two consecutive allowance picks at the same price point means the TrackWiz model is seeing consistent form in the early going.

Worth noting: with the track playing neutral under these mild conditions, early speed should be respected in the sprints today. All three of our free picks fit that profile. Take a close look before you commit your dollar on the opener.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:43 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A standout favorite dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this one-mile allowance, but at even money on the morning line, bettors will need to decide whether the chalk is worth taking or if there's more juice elsewhere.

win3He's Late AgainML EVN

He's Late Again (#3) posts a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — top of the field and a full 22 points ahead of the next contender — while also showing the best career win percentage in the race at 37%. Trainer Brad H. Cox is one of the elite conditioners in the country, and putting Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. up at even money tells you connections are pointing hard at this spot. At a mile on the dirt, class and consistency matter, and this horse has both. The value isn't great at EVN, but if you're building exotics around this card, He's Late Again is your anchor.

place6Gettysburg AddressML 5/1

Gettysburg Address (#6) sits at a 68.22 TrackWiz rating — the clear second horse in this field — and brings an 18% career win rate into a one-turn mile setting. Trainer Cipriano Contreras sends out Emmanuel Esquivel, and the 5/1 morning line makes this one of the more attractive secondary tickets on the card. In a race where the chalk may compress exacta payoffs on the top side, pairing He's Late Again over Gettysburg Address in the exacta could return reasonable value.

show5Rocky JoyML 6/1

Rocky Joy (#5) rounds out our suggested play at 6/1, posting a 47.82 TrackWiz rating and matching the field's best horses with a 55 average speed figure. Trainer Jose Luiz Aranha puts James Graham up, and while a 4% career win rate is a concern, show bettors care more about finishing close than outright winning ability. This horse has the raw speed numbers to be around late in a one-mile race, and 6/1 show money represents a nice return if the top two hold serve.

Race 5

8:14 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A sprawling 12-horse starter optional claiming field at a mile and 70 yards sets up as a wide-open affair — our model's top pick comes at a fat 15/1 morning line, making the win pick itself a longshot play.

win8CrickenbergerML 15/1

Crickenberger (#8) is our top-rated horse at 69.58 despite being listed at 15/1 on the morning line — that's a significant discrepancy between public perception and model output. Trainer Cipriano Contreras and jockey Emmanuel Esquivel team up, and a 14% career win rate is respectable in a field this size. The average speed figure of 52 is a touch below some rivals, but in a long dirt route where stamina and pace positioning matter, Crickenberger's overall profile warrants the speculative win play. If this hits, it's a big score.

place11Kam's Rockin GoldML 9/2

Kam's Rockin Gold (#11) checks in right behind at a 67.48 TrackWiz rating and shows a 17% career win rate with a 54 average speed figure — among the better combinations in this field. Trainer Brian L. Schling sends out Hannah Leahey at a 9/2 morning line that positions this as a public choice, and at a mile and 70 yards, a horse that can sustain a solid pace has a real chance to stick around for a piece. Solid place ticket in a wide-open race.

show9Razzle RedML 8/1

Razzle Red (#9) rounds out our suggested tickets with a 62.86 rating and the field's best average speed figure at 55 — useful ammunition in a long dirt route where fast fractions can soften up the field for a closer. Trainer Jamie L. Grubbs and jockey Summer Pauly are a familiar local pairing, and a 17% career win rate at 8/1 makes this a reasonable price for show and exotic inclusion. If pace heats up early, Razzle Red's raw speed numbers could make the difference in the final turn.

Race 6

8:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

An 11-horse maiden special weight sprint at five furlongs brings a bunch of lightly raced or first-time starters, and our model finds only modest separation at the top — making pace and post position critical variables.

win4Cash Per TripML 7/2

Cash Per Trip (#4) leads our model in this MSW sprint with a 55.83 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 54 — among the better raw figures in the field. Trainer Coty W. Rosin puts Adam Beschizza up, a solid jockey booking in a race where professional horsemanship early can be the difference in a short five-furlong dash. At 7/2 on the morning line, the public has identified this one, and our model agrees — it's a fair price for a horse that has the best combination of ratings and speed in the race.

place5Nordic PrinceML 9/2

Nordic Prince (#5) sits right behind the top pick at a 54.17 rating, and trainer John Haran — who also sends out the top-rated horse in Race 1 — has a string going on the card tonight. Micah Meeks gets the call, and while no average speed figure is available in the data, the TrackWiz model's overall rating keeps this horse firmly in the mix. At 9/2, there's a modest value angle here as a place play, especially if Cash Per Trip leads and sets a target for Nordic Prince to chase.

show1Captain ShagafML 5/1

Captain Shagaf (#1) earns the show slot with a 53.33 TrackWiz rating and a 54 average speed figure, drawing the rail in a five-furlong sprint — which can be advantageous if the horse breaks clean. Trainer Genaro Garcia also has Sleepy Beauty in this field, giving connections two shots, and Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. is a capable reinsman who can maximize rail draws in short sprints. At 5/1, Captain Shagaf is a reasonable trifecta piece in what is essentially a wide-open spot.

Race 7

9:16 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 fur · Dirt

A massive 14-horse allowance field at five furlongs creates a complex pace scenario where finding clean running room will be as important as raw ability — our model separates the top horse clearly, but this field is loaded with mid-tier alternatives.

win6Run Camila RunML 5/1

Run Camila Run (#6) tops the field with a 75.04 TrackWiz rating — a meaningful gap above the competition in what is otherwise a bunched-up middle tier. Trainer Anna Decker sends out Orlando Bocachica, and a 21% career win rate in allowance company is a healthy mark for this level. The 56 average speed figure is competitive, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here for a horse our model believes is the class of the field. In a big field sprint, the six-hole is a workable post.

place10Collective BeautyML 7/2

Collective Beauty (#10) earns our place call with a 68.75 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate, backed by the power of trainer Brad H. Cox — one of the most reliable conditioners in the sport at any level. Fernando De La Cruz picks up the mount, and an average speed figure of 56 ties for the best in this field. At 7/2 on the morning line, Collective Beauty will likely be overlaid at that price given Cox's reputation, but the speed numbers support the confidence.

show1Victor ValleyML 8/1

Victor Valley (#1) brings some of the best raw pace to this field with a 57 average speed figure — tied for tops in the race — combined with a 65.9 TrackWiz rating that puts this horse solidly in the top tier. Trainer Israel Acevedo and jockey Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. team up from the rail, which in a 14-horse field can actually be an asset in a short sprint if the horse breaks alertly. At 8/1, Victor Valley is a reasonable show and trifecta play for bettors looking to expand their coverage in a wide field.

Race 8

9:47 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses cluster at the top of the TrackWiz model in this 5.5-furlong allowance, setting up a genuine three-way battle — and the top pick comes in from the one-hole, which adds a tactical wrinkle.

win1Oil ManML 7/2

Oil Man (#1) leads our model with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — the best mark in the field — and brings a 22% career win rate with a 56 average speed figure that matches the top echelon of this group. Trainer Randy L. Klopp also has Catch a Nite Train in the race, but it's clear where the stable's main hope lies with Joseph D. Ramos getting the prime booking. From the rail in a 5.5-furlong sprint, breaking cleanly is paramount, but Ramos is experienced enough to find position early. This is our top selection on the back half of the card.

place8RigobertoML 9/2

Rigoberto (#8) is barely a step behind with an 83.34 TrackWiz rating and a 23% career win rate — the best win percentage among the top three model horses. Trainer Cipriano Contreras saddles Evin A. Roman, and a 55 average speed figure is sharp in this company. At 9/2 on the morning line, Rigoberto is one of the better-priced horses among our picks tonight, and if Oil Man gets to the lead from the rail, Rigoberto could be perfectly placed to pounce from just off the pace.

show2Silver SterlingML 6/1

Silver Sterling (#2) rounds out the top three with a 78.83 rating and a career win rate of 23% — matching Rigoberto's mark for best in the field. Trainer Anthony F. Cunningham sends Joshua Morales to the post, and a 56 average speed figure puts Silver Sterling in the same breath as the top choices on raw pace numbers. The 6/1 morning line is solid overlay territory for a show play, and this horse projects as a key trifecta piece in what looks like an honest pace duel up front.

Race 9

10:18 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A 10-horse allowance at a mile and a sixteenth features a clear favorite from the TrackWiz model, but the longshot value lurking at the back of the field — a 20/1 shot with a 33% career win rate — makes this one of the more interesting exotics races on the card.

win3Forever GreedyML 9/5

Forever Greedy (#3) is our top selection with an 83.28 TrackWiz rating, the best in this field, and comes in as the 9/5 morning line favorite — suggesting sharp money agrees with our model. Trainer Tianna Richardville teams with Joseph D. Ramos, who has been active all card tonight, and while the 13% career win rate is modest, the model's confidence in this horse's figures is high. At a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt, pace sustainability is key, and Forever Greedy's overall profile fits the distance profile well.

place10InclinedML 9/2

Inclined (#10) is our place pick with a 78.23 TrackWiz rating — comfortably second in the field — and a 12% career win rate under trainer Michael E. Lauer. Danny Sheehy gets the call, and a 53 average speed figure is consistent with horses that can grind through the longer dirt route. At 9/2, Inclined represents fair value for a secondary ticket, and in a race where the heavy chalk may compress the exacta, getting Inclined to run second gives exacta bettors a solid return.

show2Which Side R U OnML 20/1

Which Side R U On (#2) is the wild card of the night — a 20/1 morning line horse with a 33% career win rate, the best career percentage in this entire field. Trainer Anthony J. Granitz also has the top pick Machts Nichts and Scenic Justice in the race, giving connections three chances at the spot. The 55 average speed figure is the best in the field, and that win rate screams that this horse knows how to finish close. At 20/1 in the show pool, this is outstanding overlay value if you're building trifectas.

Race 10

10:46 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

Closing out the card is a 300-yard maiden quarter horse sprint — pure speed, no tactics, and our model has found one horse with a massive rating advantage over the field.

win5Dangerous CarolinaML 9/5

Dangerous Carolina (#5) dominates the field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the best mark on the entire Horseshoe card tonight — and yet carries only a 9/5 morning line, making this a rare case where the model's top horse also offers some value. Trainer Tim Eggleston, who has runners throughout tonight's card, sends out Rolando Del Rio Pina, and in a 300-yard straight sprint, the advantage goes entirely to the horse that fires quickest out of the gate. No speed figures are available for this field, making the TrackWiz rating the most reliable separator we have — and Dangerous Carolina's 88.83 stands alone.

place3FatimaaML 2/1

Fatimaa (#3) is our place pick with a 58.33 rating — second best in the field — and the 2/1 morning line suggests the public has also identified this as the main alternative to the top choice. Trainer Jessica A. Vazquez saddles Cristian Penaloza in what is a true speed-only event, and in maiden quarter horse races, second and third finishes often come down to who got the best jump from the gate. At 2/1, the place payoff will be modest, but Fatimaa is the most logical backup if Dangerous Carolina faces any early trouble.

show10Patrick DML 10/1

Patrick D (#10) earns the show nod with a 45.0 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field — and a 10/1 morning line that offers real value in the show pool for a horse our model has third. Trainer Anthony F. Cunningham puts Isidro Banuelos up, and in a 300-yard blast where positions are decided in fractions of a second, having a horse with a solid model rating at double-digit odds is exactly the kind of spot where trifecta overlays are born. Speculative but worth including in coverage tickets.

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Bottom line for today at Horseshoe Indianapolis: Start Out, Willy's in Charge, and Perfect Audible lead our free card, while He's Late Again and longshot Crickenberger are the premium headliners worth building your ticket around. Ten races, good weather, and a dirt track playing honest — let's cash some tickets. Full card analysis, pace projections, and exotic breakdowns are waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz Premium.

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