Horseshoe Indianapolis Picks & Predictions — August 4, 2026

Miss Susan B is the most interesting puzzle piece at 4/1. Her TrackWiz rating of 75.21 is the second-best in the field, but her 7% career win rate raises flags about her ability to convert. That profile screams place horse — she shows up, she competes, she just hasn't put a field away cleanly. Alberto Burgos rides for trainer Rogelio Labra, and a solid stalking trip could land her on the board.

Spirited Justice at 12/1 is a significant overlay if you trust the numbers — her 73.96 rating is third-best, and she carries an eye-popping 50% career win rate that would top any field she enters. Trainer Tomas Medina sends her with Luis Contreras aboard, and while the morning line suggests the public isn't sold, that win percentage is hard to ignore for trifecta players.

Countthecarats checks in at 77.02 — the clear second-best rating in the race — and at 5/1 he's priced as a mid-range runner when the data says he belongs near the top. Trainer Rogelio Labra saddles the horse with Jose Ramos Gutierrez up, and in a wide-open maiden field this horse has the profile of a clean board finisher. Exotics players will want him underneath.

Hank's Tune at 9/2 brings an average speed figure of 56 — the highest in the field among horses who have run before — and a 54.17 rating that places him squarely in the mix. Trainer Eric N. Foster sends him with jockey Summer Pauly, and while winning might be a stretch in this spot, the speed figure edge suggests he'll be close enough to the pace to show up late for a piece.

Chillax opens at 3/1 with an 84.55 rating — the second-best mark in the field — and trainer David Jacobson has him primed to run a big race with Rafael Bejarano up. The knock is a 7% career win rate, which suggests he often runs big and comes up short, making him a near-perfect place pick: plenty of talent, just hasn't put it all together consistently enough to demand the win spot.

Palm Tree at 7/2 holds a 68.61 rating with an average speed of 55 — the highest in the field — and a 14% career win rate for trainer Cipriano Contreras. Rodney Prescott has a steady hand and Palm Tree's speed figure edge could translate to early position in a route that might get honest up front. For trifecta players, he's a logical third-leg inclusion.

Castle Pines is the 6/5 morning-line favorite for trainer Doug O'Neill, one of the top conditioners in the sport. With Marcelino Pedroza Jr. aboard and a 59.67 rating that leads all horses with any real established form, he's a legitimate top contender despite ranking second on our model. In a big field, chalky favorites often hit the board even when they don't win outright.

Observed at 9/2 brings a 54.17 rating and draws the eye as one of the higher-rated entries with no speed figure on file — meaning trainer Jonathan Thomas has been patient and deliberate about this debut. Emmanuel Esquivel rides, and a fresh, well-prepared maiden on the turf at this distance can surprise. He's a sound show-inclusion pick for trifecta builders.

Skyler at 7/2 is the most conventionally logical contender in this race — second-best rating at 68.53, a 10% career win rate, and trainer Eric N. Foster sends her with Summer Pauly. She profiles as a stalker who can pick up pieces if the pace gets hot up front, and at a fair morning-line price she's the right one to include on top of or underneath in exactas.

Baladine at 9/2 has a 52.37 rating and brings a consistent average speed figure of 55 that matches several top contenders. Trainer Hutch Holsapple runs him with William Antongeorgi III, and his 8% career win rate suggests he rarely wins but tends to stay in the mix — exactly the profile you want for a show-leg anchor in a big field trifecta.

Tramuntana at 9/2 brings a 64.84 rating — the second-best in the field — and connects trainer Eddie Kenneally with jockey Mitchell Murrill, a pairing that knows how to navigate a big field on turf. Her average speed figure of 53 is competitive with the field, and in a race this deep, a horse with this ratings pedigree is likely to find the board even if the winner comes from an unexpected quarter.

Tammy's Kiss at 6/1 rates third in the field at 64.12 with a 54 average speed figure, and trainer Philip A. Bauer saddles her with Jaime A. Torres for what could be a prime setup at a mile on the lawn. Bauer showed up with Tetiaroa in Race 3 today, suggesting he's active and engaged at this meet. A 6/1 shot with a top-three rating in a 16-horse maiden is solid trifecta value.

First Angel at 6/1 is the right horse to back for place money behind the heavy favorite. His 64.64 rating is the second-best in the field, and a 33% career win rate in quarter-horse company is legitimately impressive. Trainer Claudio Barraza puts Edgar Diaz up, and in a 350-yard sprint where anything can happen in the gates, First Angel is well-positioned to grab a piece.

Cynter of Attention at 9/2 checks in with a 62.4 rating and an 18% career win rate — solid if unspectacular credentials that make her the third-best horse on paper. Trainer Joseph D. Davis keeps her competitive, and with Irving Moncada aboard, she should break cleanly and press the pace. In a short field at a short distance, show-ticket coverage here is a reasonable investment.

After School at 2/1 is the clear second-best horse in this race with a 72.15 rating — a solid number in a field where most others are well below 50. Francisco Quintero rides for trainer Hector J. Sanchez, and a 19% career win rate shows he can close the deal in quarter-horse sprints. If anything slows the favorite at the gates, After School is right there.

One Apollitical Dash at 8/1 is the longshot inclusion in the picks with a 49.51 rating and a 14% career win rate — modest credentials, but this is a 12-horse field in a blink-and-it's-over event. Trainer Sacramento Chavez sends him with Hugo Macias, and at 110 yards, chaos at the break can absolutely vault a horse from the back of the morning line onto the board. Trifecta players should include him as a live outsider.