Daily Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis Picks & Predictions — July 16, 2026

Thursday, July 16, 20269 racesHorseshoe Indianapolis

It's a hot Thursday at Horseshoe Indianapolis — partly cloudy skies with the mercury sitting at 89°F, which means the dirt is likely to be fast and unforgiving. Nine races are on the slate today, and the card has genuine range: sprint claimers, a pair of mile turf routes, a 300-yard quarter-horse dash to close things out, and a healthy dose of maiden action to keep things spicy.

The turf comes into focus in the back half of the card with three grass races across Races 5, 7, and 8 — that's nearly a third of the card on the green, and pace scenarios on the turf will be crucial. With warm, dry conditions overhead, expect a firm-to-good surface that should play right into the hands of closers who can settle and pounce late.

There's something for every kind of bettor today — whether you're hunting a live longshot in the maiden ranks or looking to structure a multi-race ticket through the turf stretch. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:10 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint where the morning-line favorite doesn't hold the top TrackWiz rating — expect the market to shift once bettors dig into the numbers.

win7Well Hey ThereML 9/2

Well Hey There tops our ratings with a 66.37 and draws the outside post in a field where most rivals are making early career appearances. Trained by Robert M. Gorham, who also saddles Superstitious, the connections clearly feel good enough about this one to load two bullets in the same race. Santo Sanjur gets the call at 9/2 on the morning line, which looks like potential overlay territory given the top rating in the field. In a maiden race where workouts and pedigree drive the handicapping, the TrackWiz model gives this filly a meaningful edge over the chalk.

place5Volatile RiskML 8/5

Volatile Risk opens as the 8/5 morning-line favorite under trainer Rodolphe Brisset, but a 59.0 rating lands her second on our sheet behind the top pick. She carries a 53 average speed figure into a field where several rivals show no prior speed data at all, which gives her a measurable baseline advantage. Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. is a capable pilot and should keep her in a good striking position around the turn.

show6Easy EffortML 5/2

Easy Effort checks in at 57.5 on the TrackWiz scale and matches Dreamy Druso for the top average speed figure in the field at 54. Trained by Aaron M. West with Fernando De La Cruz up, she's attractively priced at 5/2 and rounds out a logical exacta and trifecta bottom. In a maiden sprint where speed figures are thin across the board, having any kind of established benchmark makes her a solid exotic play.

Race 2

6:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Ryan's Wish looms as a commanding class standout in this claiming sprint, but there's enough pace in the field to make the exacta and trifecta interesting.

win1Ryan's WishML 3/1

Ryan's Wish is the most dominant number in this field by a wide margin — an 87.08 TrackWiz rating that towers over the second-ranked horse at 63.38. Trained by Randy L. Klopp and ridden by Micah Meeks, this one brings a 54 average speed figure and an 8% career win rate, which is respectable in a claiming context. At 3/1 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but when a horse separates this clearly on the numbers, you don't fade it looking for value. This is the kind of race where the chalk is the chalk for a reason.

place3Taylor's MoonshineML 5/2

Taylor's Moonshine comes in with an 11% career win rate — tied for best in the field — and a 63.38 rating that puts her solidly in the second tier. Trained by John Haran, she shows a 54 average speed figure and has demonstrated the ability to hit the board consistently. At 5/2, she's priced like a co-favorite, and structurally she profiles as the most likely horse to chase down the winner if Ryan's Wish has any trouble.

show6Special CreedML 5/1

Special Creed shows the top average speed figure in this race at 55, which is a meaningful edge in a six-furlong dirt sprint where early fractions matter. The 5/1 morning line from trainer Michelle L. Elliott with Fernando De La Cruz aboard gives you a little price on a horse that can run. With only a 5% career win rate, hitting the board rather than winning is a realistic outcome — making her a smart show bet or trifecta inclusion.

Race 3

7:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse claiming sprint with legitimate depth — the top three TrackWiz-rated horses are all 9/2 or longer on the morning line, which sets up a juicy trifecta.

win7GimmeethreestepsML 9/2

Gimmeethreesteps carries the top rating in the field at 84.9 and brings an impressive 26% career win rate to the table — that's a horse that knows how to find the wire. Trained by John Haran with Amir Mendoza aboard, the 9/2 morning line makes this one of the better-priced top picks on the card. A 56 average speed figure ties for best in the race, and at 5.5 furlongs on dirt, a horse that can run fast early and sustain it has a clear structural edge. This is TrackWiz's strongest play in Race 3.

place5Decatur StreetML 6/1

Decatur Street rates second on our sheet at 75.74 and also posts a 56 average speed figure, matching the top horses for pure pace. The 6/1 morning line from trainer Jose Cazares with Joseph D. Ramos up looks like a genuine value opportunity for a horse ranked this highly. A 14% career win rate is solid for the claiming ranks, and the price suggests the market may be sleeping on this one.

show6Funtastic VowML 4/1

Funtastic Vow brings an eye-catching 29% career win rate — second highest in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 68.48. Trained by Aaron M. West with Fernando De La Cruz taking the mount, this horse clearly knows how to hit the board. The 4/1 morning line is fair, and in a contentious nine-horse field, a horse with nearly a 30% win rate is exactly the type you want underneath in your trifecta.

TrackWiz is giving away the full breakdown on Races 1, 2, and 3 today — and honestly, that's where some of the day's sharpest plays live. Ryan's Wish in Race 2 carries our highest TrackWiz rating on the card at 87.08 and goes off at a fair 3/1 morning line in a six-furlong claiming sprint — that's the kind of price you circle in pen. On a fast dirt track that figures to favor horses with early punch, the six-furlong distance in Race 2 is tailor-made for speed-on-the-front-end types.

Gimmeethreesteps in Race 3 isn't far behind at an 84.90 rating, and at 9/2 on the morning line there's genuine value attached. Race 1 opener Well Hey There is a step down in confidence — maiden special weight sprints at 5½ furlongs can be a crapshoot — but our model still has her rated ahead of the field. The common thread across all three free races: speed figures suggest these are legitimate top-choice plays, not just morning-line chalk chasing.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:43 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

This maiden claimer is a first-time-starter showcase with nearly the entire field showing no prior speed data — pedigree and trainer patterns will drive the outcome.

win3Stolen SongML 3/1

Stolen Song draws the attention of trainer Brad H. Cox, one of the most respected conditioners in the game, which is a significant angle in a maiden claiming field with limited past performance data. Fernando De La Cruz takes the mount at 3/1 on the morning line, and the 56.67 TrackWiz rating leads all horses with available data. In a race where most horses are unknowns, the trainer pedigree alone elevates this one above the field — Cox barns routinely debut horses ready to run.

place5Lucky LollipopML 7/2

Lucky Lollipop is the only horse in the field with a meaningful average speed figure on the board — a 53 — which gives her a concrete benchmark that most rivals simply can't match. Trained by Kelsey Danner with Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. in the irons, she rates 55.83 on the TrackWiz scale and opens at 7/2. When experience is scarce and speed data is even scarcer, having any proven baseline is a real edge in maiden company.

show1Echo ParadiseML 5/1

Echo Paradise opens at 5/1 under trainer Genaro Garcia with Amir Mendoza aboard, checking in at 53.33 on our ratings. While she doesn't carry speed figure data into this spot, the rating and fair morning line make her worth including in exactas and trifectas as a hedge. In a field this inexperienced, the show spot in exotics is worth protecting with a horse at a comfortable price.

Race 5

8:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open turf mile with a dozen runners and three horses rated within six points of each other at the top — this is a prime exotic race with several legitimate contenders.

win3Great SwordML 9/2

Great Sword leads the TrackWiz ratings at 84.21 and brings a standout 25% career win rate — best among the top-rated horses in this field. Trained by Stephen V. Fosdick with Irving Moncada up, he draws the 3-post at 9/2 on the morning line, which is a fair price for a horse this dominant on the numbers. A 53 average speed figure is in the middle of the pack, but on turf at a mile, tactical positioning and class matter as much as raw speed. This is our strongest play in Race 5.

place1Comes a TimeML 8/1

Comes a Time ties with Little Jake for the second-highest TrackWiz rating at 79.79, but the 18% career win rate gives him the edge over his co-rated rival in terms of converting on those numbers. Trainer Genaro Garcia saddles him from the rail at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a genuine overlay for a horse this well-rated. A 54 average speed figure also profiles well in a turf mile where getting to the first turn cleanly from the inside can be tricky.

show12Little JakeML 8/1

Little Jake co-ranks at 79.79 with the place pick but draws a more favorable middle-of-the-field post at program number 12. Fernando De La Cruz is an experienced turf pilot and gets this one at 8/1 — the same overlay price as Comes a Time. A 13% career win rate is workmanlike, and in a twelve-horse turf field, a horse with this rating profile at 8/1 is a must-use in trifecta and superfecta tickets.

Race 6

8:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Another maiden sprint for first-timers, this one at five furlongs on dirt — the field is deep and data-thin, making our top-rated horse a clear standout in a murky race.

win3Cash Per TripML 5/2

Cash Per Trip tops our ratings at 57.5 in a field where most horses have no prior speed data to offer. Trained by Coty W. Rosin with Emmanuel Esquivel in the irons, she opens at 5/2 — the second-lowest morning line in the race, which aligns with our model's view of her chances. Five furlongs on dirt is a short, sharp test, and a horse with the top rating and a price that the market also endorses is worth backing with confidence.

place1Buccheros SongML 4/1

Buccheros Song opens at 4/1 from the Daniel Simpson barn and rates 55.0 on the TrackWiz scale — second in the field. Joseph D. Ramos takes the mount, and the inside post could work nicely in a five-furlong sprint where getting position early is critical. This is a horse that makes sense underneath Cash Per Trip in the exacta, and the price offers a little more upside than the win pick.

show4ChannelurambitionML 5/1

Channelurambition is the only horse in this maiden field who brings an average speed figure — a 54 — giving her a concrete data point that all but two or three rivals can't match. Trained by Joseph D. Davis with Alexander Crispin up at 5/1, she rates 53.33 and represents the kind of 'known quantity' that stands out when the rest of the field is a mystery. In maiden sprints with this much uncertainty, including a horse with measurable speed in your exotic tickets is just good handicapping.

Race 7

9:16 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

An allowance turf mile with a clear TrackWiz top pick, but the morning-line favorite isn't the one our model likes best — there's some real betting interest here.

win11AmazingnessML 5/1

Amazingness rates 84.17 — comfortably the top number in this eleven-horse allowance field — but opens at 5/1, suggesting the market hasn't fully caught up to the model. Trained by Anthony J. Granitz with Alberto Burgos up, this horse shows a 53 average speed figure and a 7% career win rate that, while modest, shouldn't deter at a competitive allowance level. At 5/1, you're getting a horse with the top TrackWiz rating at a price that implies only a fraction of the probability our analysis assigns. That's a value play worth pressing.

place8Sweet HeatML 7/2

Sweet Heat opens as the 7/2 morning-line co-favorite alongside the top-rated horses and carries a strong 18% career win rate into this spot. Trained by Kara Lin McGuire with William Antongeorgi III taking the mount, she posts a 77.62 rating and a 54 average speed figure — tied for best in the field on that metric. The market is clearly high on this filly, and the combination of strong speed figures and a proven win rate makes her a logical each-way play.

show10Funs Lil SisML 6/1

Funs Lil Sis rates 68.73 — third in the field — and brings a 16% career win rate that speaks to consistent competitiveness at this level. Trainer Aaron M. West puts Fernando De La Cruz in the irons at 6/1, and a 52 average speed figure is in the mix for a turf mile that will set up for closers. In an eleven-horse allowance field with this much talent bunched at the top, she's a necessary inclusion in any trifecta ticket at a fair price.

Race 8

9:47 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A maiden special weight on the turf for juveniles and debutants — the TrackWiz ratings separate sharply at the top, with three horses clearly ahead of the rest.

win11Red RazeML 3/1

Red Raze tops the entire Race 8 field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the second-highest top rating on the entire card today. Trained by Ian R. Wilkes, who is consistently one of the more patient and well-prepared conditioners in the Midwest, and ridden by Mitchell Murrill, this horse opens at 3/1 on the morning line. A 53 average speed figure gives a concrete baseline in a field where half the runners show no speed data. Wilkes' maiden starters on turf are worth monitoring closely, and this one fits the profile of a horse who arrives ready.

place4EmojiML 9/2

Emoji rates 80.05 — second in the field — and stands out with the highest average speed figure in Race 8 at 56. Trained by Lori Hendrickson with James Graham in the irons, this one opens at 9/2 and represents solid each-way value. In a maiden turf sprint, where raw speed can be decisive in the early stages, having the top figure in the race is meaningful, and the price is fair for a horse this well-equipped.

show10ParadiseperfectionML 8/1

Paradiseperfection rates 65.77 — third in the field and well clear of the next group — and opens at 8/1 from the Ed Moger, Jr. barn. With Evin A. Roman taking the mount, this filly carries a 52 average speed figure and represents genuine overlay value for a horse rated this highly in a maiden field. In turf sprints, pace and positioning matter enormously, and at 8/1, she's worth a ticket in the exotics as a value hedge against the top two picks.

Race 9

10:15 PM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

The nightcap is a 300-yard quarter-horse sprint — a pure explosion of speed where the fastest breaker almost always wins and the top-rated horses carry real authority.

win4Dare to FlyML 7/2

Dare to Fly tops the Race 9 TrackWiz ratings at 72.82 and opens at 7/2 on the morning line — the lowest price in a thirteen-horse field, which tells you the market agrees with our model here. Trained by Claudio Barraza with Edgar Diaz up, this horse brings an 11% career win rate into a specialty distance where reaction time and raw acceleration are everything. In a field this large at 300 yards, the top-rated horse at the lowest morning line is exactly who you want to be on.

place7Jf RequestingaflybyML 6/1

Jf Requestingaflyby rates 67.72 — second in the field — and opens at 6/1 from trainer Mallory Norton with Rolando Del Rio Pina in the irons. A 14% career win rate is right in the mix for this level, and the price suggests some overlay potential for the second-best number in the race. In a quarter-horse sprint, you're often playing for the place and show as much as the win, and this horse fits comfortably as an exacta partner with Dare to Fly.

show13Kiss of CoronaML 6/1

Kiss of Corona rates 59.99 — third in the field — and brings a 11% career win rate under trainer Felix Barraza with Martin Munoz taking the call. Interestingly, Munoz is also aboard stablemate Jess Knew, which is worth noting as a connections angle. The 6/1 morning line is the same as the place pick, making Kiss of Corona a legitimate trifecta and exacta wheel candidate at a fair price. In a thirteen-horse 300-yard sprint, getting three horses in the right order is where the real money is made.

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Bottom line: Ryan's Wish is the marquee play of the day and the name to beat in Race 2, while the turf trifecta in the second half of the card is where patient money can find value. Three strong free picks get you started — subscribers get the full nine-race roadmap, pace projections, and exotic ticket structures to maximize every dollar. Good luck out there today.

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