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Gulfstream Park Picks & Predictions — August 23, 2026

August 23, 20269 racesAll Gulfstream Park picks

It's a hot Sunday at Gulfstream Park — 89 degrees, clear skies, and the kind of firm, fast conditions that reward horses with proven speed figures and clean trips. Nine races are on the board today, spanning dirt and turf, from sprints to routes, with a field that mixes maiden hopefuls against seasoned claimers and allowance-level runners. There's plenty to work with.

The turf looks pristine after the stretch of clear weather, which is good news for the three grass events on the card — Races 2, 7, and 9. On the dirt side, expect pace to be honest and surfaces playing fair all afternoon. No excuses for any runner today.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

One horse stands well above the field on ratings in this one-mile dirt claimer, but a trio of mid-tier contenders could make the exacta interesting if Wine Candy hits any traffic.

win7Wine CandyML 5/2

Wine Candy is the clear class of this field by TrackWiz ratings, posting an 87.81 — more than 15 points clear of the next best. She also shows the field's top average speed figure at 55, giving her an edge at a distance that should suit a horse who can rate off pace. Trainer Sebastian Pulgarin has a second horse in the race in Friolento, so he clearly likes the spot, and J.G. Torrealba gets the mount on the barn's main chance. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the numbers back the confidence.

place1Cuddle the KittenML 3/1

Cuddle the Kitten brings the field's joint-best career win percentage at 28%, which tells you this horse knows how to find the winner's circle. A rating of 72.56 puts her solidly in the mix for a piece, and Leonel Reyes is a capable pilot to get the job done. If Wine Candy gets into trouble or doesn't fire her best, Cuddle the Kitten looks like the natural backup.

show4Willing OneML 6/1

Willing One at 6/1 on the morning line is an underrated exotic play at a rating of 67.5 — good enough for third-best in the field. Trainer Kathleen O'Connell puts Miguel Angel Vasquez up, a useful booking, and a 20% career win rate suggests this horse is competitive at this level. As a show bet or underneath in exacta/trifecta play, the price makes her worth including.

Race 2

4:55 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight sprint on turf where every runner is still looking for that first win — expect first-time starters and lightly-raced types to keep things unpredictable.

win5Six Seven BrewML 9/5

Six Seven Brew tops the TrackWiz ratings at 58.67 and draws the 9/5 morning line, making her the public's choice in a field of maiden runners. Trainer Michael Yates has Leonel Reyes booked, a combination worth tracking in Florida turf sprints. With no career wins in this field by definition, the ratings edge and morning line confidence put Six Seven Brew in the driver's seat, though maiden races on turf always carry an extra layer of unpredictability.

place7TilouML 2/1

Tilou at 2/1 is essentially co-favored with Six Seven Brew and posts a nearly identical rating of 58.33, making this as tight a 1-2 as you'll see on paper. Trainer Heather Smullen sends Samy Camacho out, and Tilou has an average speed figure of 56 — best of any horse with recorded figures in this field. If the favorite gets into trouble on the turf course, Tilou is right there to steal it.

show3Lee's Onthe LooseML 4/1

Lee's Onthe Loose is the morning line third choice at 4/1 with a rating of 55, and while no average speed figure is on record, trainer Daniel C. Hurtak puts Miguel Angel Vasquez in the irons — a strong rider for a runner that needs tactical help. The lack of a speed figure could mean first-time turf or a lightly-raced profile, which in maiden company can cut both ways. At 4/1, she's worth a spot in trifecta tickets as a show play.

Race 3

5:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A pace duel is brewing in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, with the morning-line favorite and the top-rated horse pulling in opposite directions — the setup could produce a closer or stalker sneaking past a burned-out field.

win1Boot's On the MoonML 7/2

Boot's On the Moon has by far the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 86.35 — nearly 12 points clear of Denver's Alley. Posting an average speed figure of 57 and going to post at 7/2 on the morning line, there's genuine value here for a horse whose numbers scream top selection. Miguel Angel Vasquez is a sharp pick-up, and trainer Ronald B. Spatz puts his runner in a spot where the class edge is undeniable. The 14% career win rate is modest, but the speed figures and rating say this is a class drop into a winnable spot.

place5Denver's AlleyML 9/5

Denver's Alley is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with a solid rating of 74.99 and a 57 average speed figure matching the top two in the field. Trainer Michael Lerman sends Diego A. Herrera out, and a 20% career win rate is respectable in a claiming field. The concern is whether the favorite price is justified when Boot's On the Moon holds a significant ratings edge — Denver's Alley may be best used underneath in exacta and trifecta wagers.

show3Bad Gal PartyML 2/1

Bad Gal Party brings the field's best career win percentage at 27%, and a 61.43 rating with a 57 average speed figure makes her a legitimate threat in the bottom half of exotics. Trainer David Fawkes has a live runner here at 2/1 on the morning line, and Samy Camacho is a capable pilot. She's priced too short for outright longshot value, but her track record and speed back her as a reliable show play.

We're giving you three races on the house to kick off your Sunday card. Wine Candy tops our board in Race 1 — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating in a mile claiming spot is hard to overlook at 5/2 on the morning line, and the distance setup suits a horse that should get comfortable settling early before turning for home. In Race 2, Six Seven Brew draws our eye in a maiden special weight sprint on the turf. The 9/5 morning line makes her a short favorite, but a 58.67 rating in a maiden event signals real variance here — this one's worth watching closely before you commit. Race 3 rounds out the freebies with Boot's On the Moon posting an 86.35 on a 5 1/2-furlong dirt sprint at 7/2. That's solid value for a horse projecting this strongly against claiming company.

On the dirt today, keep an eye on early speed. The clear, dry conditions typically produce a surface that doesn't penalize front-runners, so horses that can get clean air from the start — like Boot's On the Moon — have an edge. On the turf, rail position and settling trips matter more; watch the pace scenario develop in the opener before diving deeper into the grass races.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

This 5-furlong turf claimer features a fascinating split between the morning-line and the TrackWiz numbers — the public has gone one way, but our top-rated horse is flying well under the radar at 6/1.

win3Tie It With a BowML 6/1

Tie It With a Bow lands at the top of our ratings at 82.71 — a full 10 points ahead of the next horse — yet sits at 6/1 on the morning line, suggesting the public is sleeping on her. Trainer Luis M. Ramirez puts Diego A. Herrera up, a quality booking for a race where the pace scenario on a short turf sprint could suit a horse with tactical speed. A 20% career win rate is solid for a claiming turf runner, and the disconnect between her rating and her price makes her the value play of the race.

place6ZoleneML 2/1

Zolene comes in as the 2/1 morning-line favorite with a 72.51 rating and the field's best average speed figure tied at 57. Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo has Yolber Torres aboard, and a 25% career win rate adds credibility. She's a legitimate contender and the public favorite for a reason, but at those odds, she's better deployed as a place play or underneath Tie It With a Bow in exactas.

show4Hope Town GirlML 9/2

Hope Town Girl is the standout stat story in this race — a 50% career win rate is extraordinary and suggests a horse that rarely runs without competing. Her TrackWiz rating of 71.33 is third-best in the field, and trainer Sebastian Pulgarin keeps Pedro Pena in the irons. At 9/2 on the morning line, she's worth including in trifecta combinations as a tough-to-beat show contender.

Race 5

6:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A large maiden claiming field on dirt where the top-rated runner is a significant class question mark — with all zeros in the win column, pace scenario and connections become critical differentiators.

win6JadacaquivaML 5/1

Jadacaquiva tops our ratings at 84.17 in a competitive maiden claiming field, a significant edge over the next runner, Decisive Maiara at 62.67. Trainer Gustavo Delgado sends Samy Camacho — one of the meet's steadier riders — to the gate at 5/1 on the morning line, giving this play real value. With an average speed figure of 54, she's right in the mix on raw ability, and in a maiden claimer, a horse whose ratings stand this far apart is worth backing with confidence.

place3Decisive MaiaraML 8/1

Decisive Maiara at 8/1 on the morning line is the value play in the place spot, carrying a 62.67 rating and an average speed figure of 53 for trainer Joseph C. Catanese III. Miguel Angel Vasquez gets the call, which is a meaningful upgrade — he's one of the sharper jockeys in this field. In a wide-open maiden race, horses with capable riders and a legitimate rating tend to run into the money more often than their price suggests.

show8Dilly DallyML 7/2

Dilly Dally draws the 7/2 morning line and a 55.83 TrackWiz rating, which puts her third in the field on our numbers. Trainer J. David Braddy books Pedro Pena, and an average speed figure of 54 keeps her competitive on raw ability. She's the 'chalk' show play here — priced to suggest public confidence but not quite with the top tier, making her a sensible anchor in trifecta tickets.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. saddles the top two picks in this 6-furlong allowance optional claimer — one as the even-money favorite, one as a 6/1 trailer — which sets up a potential barn domination if both fire their best.

win2SweetcityML EVN

Sweetcity is the standout in this field, posting a 90 TrackWiz rating while sitting at even money on the morning line — and the numbers justify the support. A 33% career win rate is elite, and her average speed figure of 55 is tied with two rivals. Trainer Saffie A. Joseph Jr. is one of the most productive trainers in Florida, and Rasheed Hughes takes the mount. In allowance optional claiming company, a horse with a 33% win rate and the top rating is a best-bet anchor.

place1Golden ValleyML 2/1

Golden Valley at 2/1 is a solid play on her own merits — a 81.91 rating, a 26% career win rate, and trainer Armando De La Cerda sending Edwin Gonzalez up for a quality look. She trails only Sweetcity on our ratings and represents the logical second in the exacta. If the pace gets hot early, Golden Valley's stalking style could let her run past a tired favorite.

show3Dominant DivaML 6/1

Dominant Diva is trained by Saffie A. Joseph Jr., the same barn sending out Sweetcity — and while she's the 6/1 second string, a 70.22 rating and a 22% career win rate make her dangerous. Diego A. Herrera handles the riding duties, and on a 6-furlong track, a horse with her ability can certainly pick up pieces if the barn's top choice leads them all into a fast pace. Worth including in trifectas at the price.

Race 7

7:37 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Corbet's Crush looks like a horse the morning line respects at 2/1, but a deep, competitive allowance optional claiming turf sprint has multiple horses clustered in the ratings — this race has legitimate upset potential.

win6Corbet's CrushML 2/1

Corbet's Crush is the TrackWiz top pick at 88.54 — highest rating in the field by a comfortable margin — and the 2/1 morning line reflects justified confidence. Her average speed figure of 58 is tied for best in the field, and trainer Heather Smullen puts Diego A. Herrera aboard, a pairing worth noting on the turf. A 28% career win rate in allowance optional claiming company suggests a horse who competes hard, and the numbers make her the clear top choice.

place4CataloniaML 5/2

Catalonia at 5/2 pairs the field's top average speed figure of 58 with a solid rating of 77.81, and Leonel Reyes gets the assignment for trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo. A 12% career win rate might look modest, but in tighter allowance fields, this horse has clearly been running against quality — and speed figures don't lie. She's the natural backup to Corbet's Crush in both exactas and place tickets.

show3Modern BeautyML 6/1

Modern Beauty profiles as an intriguing show play at 6/1 — her 33% career win rate is the best in the field, and her 71.6 rating and average speed figure of 57 keep her in the conversation on pure ability. Trainer Victor Barboza Jr. has Edgar Perez up, and with a horse that wins at that clip, she has a way of finding the finish line. At 6/1, she adds real return to a trifecta ticket without feeling like a throwaway.

Race 8

8:08 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Our top-rated horse in this 6½-furlong dirt claimer is also the longest shot among the main contenders on the morning line — if the numbers hold up, there's genuine overlay value to be found.

win6RedhotnotbotheredML 5/1

Redhotnotbothered tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 yet sits at 5/1 on the morning line — a meaningful gap between our model and the public's assessment that creates overlay potential. His average speed figure of 56 leads the field, and trainer Michael Lerman puts Leonel Reyes up, a capable booking in a dirt sprint where pace setup matters. An 11% career win rate is the one cautionary note, but in claiming company where class and speed figures carry the most weight, the raw ability here is hard to dismiss.

place5El OrejonML 4/1

El Orejon brings a 27% career win rate — tied for best in the field — and a rating of 66.27 that puts him comfortably in the top third of this group. Trainer Steve Klesaris has a long record of placing horses well at Gulfstream, and Jose E. Morelos is a steady hand. At 4/1, he's a fair price for a horse with legitimate credentials to hit the board.

show1Ez Orb NotML 5/2

Ez Orb Not is the morning-line co-favorite at 5/2 with a 61.68 rating and a career win rate of 16%, and Samy Camacho takes the mount for trainer Joseph F. Orseno. He trails our top pick on ratings by more than 22 points, but his public support and tactical positioning in a pace-heavy sprint make him a reliable show contender. In claiming sprints at 6½ furlongs, horses with Camacho's ability to find a line tend to land in the money.

Race 9

8:43 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Apache One Six owns a commanding ratings advantage in this maiden claiming turf route, but a big field going 1 1/16 miles on grass opens the door for pace collapse and closer chaos — the bottom half of trifectas is genuinely wide open.

win3Apache One SixML 3/1

Apache One Six sits at 87.08 on the TrackWiz model — by far the best rating in a nine-horse field where nobody else cracks 56. Trainer Ronald Coy sends Leonel Reyes to the gate at 3/1 on the morning line, and though every runner in this race is still searching for win number one, Apache's ratings edge is substantial enough to build a case with confidence. His average speed figure of 53 is modest, but in maiden claiming turf routes, the class gap this wide tends to translate.

place5Vol Du CondorML 7/2

Vol Du Condor at 7/2 on the morning line has a 55.83 rating and an average speed figure of 54, giving trainer Victor Barboza Jr. a credible second option behind the top choice. Samy Camacho is aboard, and in a turf route where trip luck and pace scenario loom large, a horse with Barboza's conditioning and Camacho's course awareness can absolutely be there at the top of the stretch. He's the logical exacta play against Apache One Six.

show7ZirzopML 9/2

Zirzop stands out on one key stat — his average speed figure of 57 is the highest in the field, and a rating of 54.17 keeps him competitive in the mix. Trainer Murat Sancal sends Edgar Perez up at 9/2 on the morning line, and in a maiden turf route where the pace can get scrambled, a horse with raw speed figures this good has a way of finding his way to a check. He's worth including in trifectas.

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Bottom line: this is a strong Sunday card at Gulfstream with a mix of short-priced standouts and legit value plays scattered throughout. Wine Candy, Boot's On the Moon, and Six Seven Brew give you a free head start — and Sweetcity's even-money tag in Race 6 is a premium conversation worth having. Full analysis, pace projections, and exotic tickets are waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there.

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