Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park Picks & Predictions — July 12, 2026

Sunday, July 12, 202610 racesGulfstream Park

It's a hot Sunday at Hallandale Beach — we're talking 91°F under partly cloudy skies, and that South Florida summer heat is very much part of the handicapping equation today. Gulfstream Park puts up a 10-race card that mixes dirt sprints, route turf tests, and a strong dose of maiden action from top to bottom.

Six of the ten races hit the turf, so watch how the grass is playing as the card develops. Heat and humidity can take a real toll on horses going longer distances, especially in the afternoon races, so pace collapse scenarios are worth keeping in mind in any route beyond a mile.

TrackWiz has graded the full card and surfaced some legitimate angles — including a couple of morning-line favorites we like and at least one overlay worth targeting in the later races. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer on the dirt sprint where the morning-line favorite doesn't match the TrackWiz ratings — creating real value opportunities throughout the card.

win2Serenity PathML 5/2

Serenity Path tops our ratings at 87.81 — a significant gap above every other horse in this field — and goes postward at a workable 5/2 morning line under Miguel Angel Vasquez. In a race where all nine entrants are winless, that kind of rating separation matters enormously. The 5 1/2-furlong dirt sprint plays to pace-pressers who can handle quick fractions, and Serenity Path's profile fits that mold. Trainer Michael S. Morrison puts a capable horse in a spot where the talent edge should show.

place4Dilly DallyML 9/5

Dilly Dally draws attention as the morning-line favorite at 9/5 despite a TrackWiz rating of 58.67 — well below Serenity Path's top mark. That disconnect suggests the market may be overestimating this one, but Diego A. Herrera is a solid handler and Dilly Dally has enough class to hang around for a piece. With an average speed figure of 53, she's in line with the middle of this pack and is a reasonable place-ticket inclusion.

show3JadacaquivaML 8/1

Jadacaquiva at 8/1 morning line is the logical show play, posting a rating of 55.97 and an average speed of 54 — competitive enough to land in the exotics. Trainer Gustavo Delgado keeps this one pointed at a level where she can compete, and the slight price edge over the top two makes her a sensible third leg in trifecta tickets.

Race 2

4:55 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A Starter Optional Claiming mile on the turf with a genuine battle at the top — the morning-line favorite carries a massive win percentage, but our ratings favor the overlay sitting at 3/1.

win8I'm SamML 3/1

I'm Sam is our top-rated horse at 87.08 and goes at 3/1 morning line under Micah J. Husbands for trainer Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. — one of the most productive barns in the game. A 22% career win rate is solid in a field where several rivals are single-digit winners, and the mile on turf suits horses with a tactical pace profile. Joseph horses returning to turf are worth noting, and that rating advantage makes this one our best bet in the race.

place2Bolero BayML 7/5

Bolero Bay is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 for a reason — a 42% career win rate is extraordinary and demands respect. Miguel Angel Vasquez has the mount for trainer Michael Yates, and this horse clearly knows how to find the wire first. The rating of 80.76 places him second in our model, making him a strong place candidate even if I'm Sam edges him at the line.

show6TimshelML 7/2

Timshel offers real intrigue at 7/2 with a jaw-dropping 50% career win rate — the highest in the field. Trainer Kathleen O'Connell has this one pointed correctly, and Diego A. Herrera can find spots on the turf. The rating of 64.22 doesn't quite match the top two, but that win percentage says this horse competes hard, and the show spot feels very safe.

Race 3

5:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Two horses have separated themselves from the rest of this maiden claiming field going a mile and 70 yards on dirt — it's a two-horse race at the top with a modest show play hiding underneath.

win8My Foolish NotionML 2/1

My Foolish Notion leads our ratings at 88.54 in a field where nobody else cracks 85, and the 2/1 morning line reflects that market respect. Anthony Thomas gets the call for trainer Herbert Miller, and the extended distance of a mile and 70 yards should suit a horse with the kind of sustained effort that produces big ratings. In a maiden claiming affair this thin, a top rating this dominant is a green light.

place2Secret PowerML 7/5

Secret Power comes in at a strong 84.92 rating and goes as the morning-line favorite at 7/5 for trainer Elizabeth L. Dobles, who also saddles Dr. Daniel in this spot — a sign of stable confidence. Diego A. Herrera is one of the sharper jockeys on the Gulfstream circuit, and Secret Power's average speed of 53 is tied for best in the field. If anything scrambles My Foolish Notion's trip, this one is right there.

show4Dr DanielML 8/1

Dr. Daniel gives trainer Elizabeth L. Dobles a two-pronged attack at 8/1 morning line, and at a rating of 48.33, he's a clear cut above the bottom half of this field. Jose E. Morelos rides, and the added distance of a mile and 70 yards could help a horse that may have been finding shorter trips a touch sharp. A useful show play and trifecta piece at a playable price.

Our three free best bets today are spread across the opening races, and there's a common thread: horses that project to get comfortable trips without much pace pressure. On the dirt, Serenity Path (R1, 5/2 ML) and My Foolish Notion (R3, 2/1 ML) both earned strong TrackWiz ratings north of 87, which is a solid threshold in maiden claiming company at this level. When you see that kind of figure in a short field with a clear pace setup, you lean in.

On the turf, I'm Sam (R2, 3/1 ML) gives us a Starter Optional Claiming mile that sets up as a more open race — and that morning line of 3/1 suggests there may be a bit of value left on the board if the crowd overreacts to a more familiar name in the field. These three races are a great starting point for building your card today, even if you're just playing a few tickets.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

This maiden turf mile features a standout on ratings who isn't even close to the morning-line favorite — a classic overlay situation where our model and the market sharply disagree.

win1SunfishML 7/2

Sunfish tops the TrackWiz ratings at 76.66 — a healthy margin over the rest — yet goes off at 7/2 morning line while others below her in our model are favored. Diego A. Herrera picks up the mount for trainer Michael Lerman, and the turf mile is a format that rewards horses with clean tactical speed. An average speed figure of 52 is workable in this field, and the rating edge makes Sunfish our clear top selection despite the market underrating her.

place3SerraniaML 9/5

Serrania is the 9/5 morning-line choice and brings the best average speed in the field at 57 — that number stands out on a turf route where sustained pace matters. Miguel Angel Vasquez is a quality booking for trainer Fausto Gutierrez, and a rating of 58.67 keeps Serrania firmly in the hunt. The market loves her, and the speed figure backs it up as a legitimate place contender.

show6Mo Town SoulML 5/2

Mo Town Soul at 5/2 rates third in our model at 57.5 — nearly identical to Serrania — and Leonel Reyes gets a live mount for trainer Ronald B. Spatz. An average speed of 53 is middle-of-the-pack, but this is a thin maiden field where consistency can trump flash. A show ticket here feels comfortable, and Mo Town Soul fits naturally into horizontal exotic plays.

Race 5

6:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The claiming sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt is headlined by a dominant top pick, but the pace scenario sets up an interesting battle behind her that creates exotic value.

win6Sara's RoseML 2/1

Sara's Rose is our top-rated horse at 88.54 — the highest mark of any horse on today's entire card tied only with Race 3 — and she draws outside in post 6 under Diego A. Herrera for trainer Nicholas J. Tomlinson. An average speed figure of 56 leads all runners in this field, and at 2/1, she's a fair price for what the data says is a clear class edge. Fifteen percent career win rate matches the field average, but the raw speed and rating say she's running at a higher level than those numbers suggest.

place5Slew DivaML 7/5

Slew Diva is the morning-line chalk at 7/5 and rates second in our model at 62.11 — making her the logical place key. Edwin Gonzalez rides for trainer Steve Klesaris, and a 15% career win rate keeps her honest. The average speed of 54 is slightly below Sara's Rose, but in a competitive claiming sprint, she figures to be right there at the top of the stretch.

show1Just Take NotesML 6/1

Just Take Notes at 6/1 morning line is the value play in the show spot, posting a 53.89 rating and a 15% career win rate under David Boraco for trainer Roderick R. Rodriguez. An average speed of 54 keeps her competitive, and the price makes her an attractive trifecta anchor. If the top two set up a pace duel through the turn, a closer like Just Take Notes could catch a soft piece of it.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A maiden special weight sprint on the turf brings out several firsters and lightly-raced types, making this a wide-open affair where the public's choice only marginally separates from the field.

win6Gotta Be MadisonML 9/5

Gotta Be Madison draws the 9/5 morning line and tops our model at 57.33 — not a dominant margin but enough to project as the most likely winner in a competitive field. Pedro Pena gets the mount for trainer Ronald Coy, and an average speed figure of 56 leads all runners by a meaningful margin. In a maiden special weight turf sprint where raw speed off the turns matters, that figure edge is significant.

place4Epic RomanceML 3/1

Epic Romance at 3/1 is a legitimate threat with a rating of 56.67 — virtually identical to the top pick — and Edwin Gonzalez pilots for trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo. No average speed is listed, which typically signals a first-time starter or limited published figures; that mystery factor cuts both ways, but the rating and morning line suggest the connections are quietly confident. A useful place ticket in a race this close at the top.

show2Street PlayML 5/1

Street Play at 5/1 rates third in our model at 53.33 with an average speed of 53, and Jose E. Morelos has been active and effective on the Gulfstream turf. Trainer J. Kent Sweezey knows this surface well, and at the price, Street Play is a sensible show inclusion on trifecta tickets — especially if the top two set honest fractions in this sprint format.

Race 7

7:38 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Two horses — Maximus Cat and Four Courts — are virtually inseparable at the top of our ratings in this maiden claiming dirt sprint, setting up a fascinating battle between the morning-line favorite and a slight overlay.

win6Maximus CatML 2/1

Maximus Cat leads the TrackWiz ratings at 86.79 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 under Edgar Perez for trainer Gerald S. Bennett. An average speed of 55 is tied for second-best in the field, and the rating advantage over the bulk of this field is substantial. In a five-furlong dirt sprint, early pace and clean breaks matter most — Perez is an experienced hand who can position a speed horse correctly, and Maximus Cat looks like the one to beat.

place1Four CourtsML 4/1

Four Courts sits right behind the top pick at 85.62 on our ratings and draws a more generous 4/1 morning line — making him the overlay of the race. Jonathan Ocasio gets the mount for trainer Douglas Nunn, and an average speed of 56 is the highest figure in the entire field. That speed number is worth circling in a sprint, and Four Courts could easily reverse the order with a forward trip from post 1.

show4Viking SunML 9/2

Viking Sun at 9/2 morning line posts a solid 74.28 rating — third-best in the field by a clear margin — and Jose E. Morelos rides for trainer J. Kent Sweezey. An average speed of 55 is competitive in this group, and Viking Sun slots nicely into the show position on exotics. With post 4, he gets a clean look at the pace from a tractable spot.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Disattached stands out as the class of a claiming turf mile field, posting the top rating on the entire day's card — but at 9/5, the real question is whether the exotics offer better value with capable horses lurking at longer prices.

win3DisattachedML 9/5

Disattached tops the entire day's card at 88.83 and is the clear top selection at 9/5 morning line for trainer Heather Smullen with Diego A. Herrera aboard. A 13% career win rate is honest in a claiming field, but the rating and speed figure of 54 put this horse in a different tier than most rivals. The mile on turf plays to horses that settle well and sustain their run, and our model projects Disattached as the most likely winner by a comfortable margin.

place1Gus SwayzeML 9/2

Gus Swayze at 9/2 is one of the more compelling place plays on the card — a rating of 80.28 is legitimately strong in a claiming field, and Edgar Perez takes the mount for trainer Nolan Ramsey. A 14% career win rate and average speed of 54 match up well with the competition, and the price gives you real value relative to the favorite. If Disattached draws any trouble on the turf, Gus Swayze is the most dangerous horse to capitalize.

show7Boy o' BoyML 8/1

Boy o' Boy at 8/1 morning line adds an appealing layer of value at third in our ratings at 70.15. Edwin Gonzalez rides for trainer William E. Deaton, and a 9% career win rate sounds modest but is respectable for a horse typically running against tougher. An average speed of 54 matches the top two in this race, and at 8/1, Boy o' Boy gives trifecta bettors a legitimate shot at a big number without stretching credulity.

Race 9

8:46 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight dirt sprint at six furlongs with a fascinating ratings inversion — the morning-line favorite isn't our top pick, and a 10/1 shot hides surprising upside in the middle of the card.

win7Lady RockulaML 3/1

Lady Rockula draws a 3/1 morning line and leads our model at 81.9, putting her well clear of most rivals except the curious case of the favorite. Miguel Angel Vasquez takes the mount for trainer Carlos A. David — a capable combination on the Gulfstream dirt. An average speed of 53 is solid in this maiden field, and the ratings gap between Lady Rockula and the bottom half of this field is large enough to warrant confidence at a fair price.

place5Hello Poochy LouML 10/1

Hello Poochy Lou is the value standout of the race at 10/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 69.81 — second-best in the field and well above the 7/5 favorite in our model. Pedro Pena handles for trainer Herbert Miller, and an average speed of 54 is competitive at this level. The disconnect between her morning line and our rating is significant, and this is the kind of horse that can torch the place pool at big odds.

show8SweetcityML 7/5

Sweetcity draws the morning-line favoritism at 7/5 — reflecting market confidence — but our rating of 59.33 places her third in the field behind Lady Rockula and Hello Poochy Lou. Trainer Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. commands respect in any race, and Rasheed Hughes is a capable rider. The show spot feels safe for Sweetcity given the connections, but the price makes her most useful as a key in horizontal plays rather than a standalone win bet.

Race 10

9:22 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The allowance turf closer is the most competitive race on the card — three horses cluster near the top of our ratings with legitimate credentials, while the 9/2 morning-line pick carries a remarkable career win percentage that demands attention.

win4Get the WinML 9/2

Get the Win leads our model at 84.84 and goes at 9/2 morning line with Diego A. Herrera up for trainer Sam Wilensky — but the number that jumps off the page is a 60% career win rate, the highest of any horse on today's entire card. An average speed of 57 also leads this field, and in an allowance mile on turf, those two data points together form a compelling case. The price makes this feel like a genuine overlay, and TrackWiz analysis points to Get the Win as the best bet of the race.

place6Golden ValleyML 5/1

Golden Valley at 5/1 morning line is right on Get the Win's heels in our model at 84.17 — a razor-thin separation — and a 23% career win rate is excellent for an allowance-level turf runner. Rasheed Hughes picks up the mount for trainer Armando De La Cerda, and an average speed of 54 keeps Golden Valley honest in a pace-testing mile. The price provides solid overlay value for a horse that could easily take this race on a different day.

show2Sapphire GirlML 3/1

Sapphire Girl closes out the top three in our ratings at 81.91 and draws a 3/1 morning line that makes her the second choice. Micah J. Husbands rides for Saffie A. Joseph, Jr., whose barn continues to fire at a high rate in allowance company. A 14% career win rate and average speed of 55 are both competitive, and Sapphire Girl represents the safest show ticket in the race — a horse that will almost certainly be involved late in a mile on the turf.

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Ten races, a scorching Gulfstream afternoon, and a card loaded with turf action — today rewards the patient handicapper who picks their spots. Start with Serenity Path, I'm Sam, and My Foolish Notion as your free best bet foundation, and if you want the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and every angle on all 10 races — the complete TrackWiz breakdown is available to subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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