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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — November 10, 2026

November 10, 20269 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

Best bets at Finger Lakes today

Race 15Always PackenML 5/212:10 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 7 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Finger Lakes: our top pick won 11 of 58 races (19%) and finished in the money in 33.

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Always Packen is our best bet on the free portion of today's card — the Race 1 maiden special weight runner posted the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.35 sec/furlong, and the pilot aboard has cashed 70% of the time in the money over the past year. At 5/2 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and a 28.5% simulated win probability, this is the kind of number that gets our attention in an opener.

The conditions are about as cooperative as mid-November gets at Finger Lakes — clear skies and 57°F should keep the dirt surface playing fair and fast. Nine races are on the slate, a full Tuesday card mixing maiden specials, allowances, claiming company, and a starter optional claiming race to close the day out.

What makes this card genuinely interesting is the depth of live longshot angles buried in the premium races. We've got a 5/1 shot in the maiden claiming (Race 6) with dirt surface credentials that are hard to ignore, and a closer look at Race 9 reveals a morning-line 5/1 whose sim number quietly outpaces how the public figures to bet the field. There's meat on the bone here beyond the chalk.

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Race 1

12:10 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An all-maiden sprint with a wide-open field of unproven runners — the TrackWiz ratings span over 40 points, so there's a clear class separation at the top, but every horse in here is still searching for their first win.

win5Always PackenML 5/2

Always Packen tops this field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the race by a comfortable margin — and backs it up with the fastest recent workout speed in the field at 12.35 sec/furlong. The dirt record is encouraging: placed in 6 of 8 races on the surface, giving meaningful confidence that this horse handles the footing. Jockey Keiber J. Coa brings a 24% win rate and 70% in-the-money mark over the past year, one of the strongest rider profiles in today's card, and our simulations had Always Packen winning 28.5% of 10,000 runs — easily the highest share in this race.

place3GitoleML 4/1

Gitole slots in as the second-ranked horse with a 79.47 rating and owns the third-fastest recent race speed (12.52 sec/furlong) in a field of unproven maidens. The dirt profile is solid — placed in 3 of 5 races on the surface — and jockey Luis E. Perez has posted a 22% win rate and 62% in-the-money rate over the past year. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's reasonable value here if the top pick stumbles.

show7Grizz At the GateML 5/1

Grizz At the Gate checks in with the third-highest rating at 77.24 and the second-fastest recent race speed (12.46 sec/furlong), making this a legitimate contender in a field where raw figures matter most. The Flores/Barrow jockey-trainer combo has combined for a 22% win rate and 60% in-the-money rate over the past year, which is a reliable pairing at this level. At 5/1, this horse fits nicely in exacta and trifecta coverage as a price play.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Always Packen29%
3Gitole21%
7Grizz At the Gate18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 1 is the one free look we're giving everyone today, and Always Packen earns it. Speed figures — essentially a measure of how fast a horse has been running recently — are the backbone of short-distance sprint handicapping, and leading the field in recent race speed on a surface that should play honest today is a meaningful edge. Pair that with a jockey carrying a 24% win rate over the past year and you have a solid foundational play for casual bettors and grinders alike.

The 5/2 morning line reflects deserved favoritism, but it's not a price that asks you to lay down heavy juice — there's real value here relative to the probability our models are projecting. If you're only playing one race today, Race 1 is the starting point.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:38 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Another maiden sprint, but this one is a full workout-dependent puzzle — with several horses showing no recorded race speed figures, the workout rankings and jockey-trainer connections become the primary handicapping tool.

win5Major ConfidenceML 2/1

Major Confidence holds the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 58.33 and benefits from one of the standout jockey-trainer pairings on the card: the Coa/Ferraro combo has posted a 31% win rate and 76% in-the-money rate over the past year, numbers that command respect in any maiden field. Coa himself has hit at 24% and finished in the money 70% of the time over the past year. The workout clock supports the case too — ranked third in the field at 12.20 sec/furlong. Our simulations gave Major Confidence a 21% win share across 10,000 runs, right in line with the 2/1 morning line.

place2ZolfoML 3/1

Zolfo is the second-rated horse at 56.67 and comes from the same productive Flores/Barrow barn that shows a 22% win rate and 60% in-the-money rate when paired together. Jockey Jeremias Flores is hitting at 19% wins over the past year. No race speed figures are available to evaluate, but the combination of connections and rating make this a credible exacta target at 3/1.

show6KeepmeinnyML 7/2

Keepmeinny sits third in the ratings at 55.83 and owns the fastest workout of any horse in this race over the past month at 12.05 sec/furlong — a meaningful edge in a field where actual race figures are scarce. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro saddles both the top pick and this runner, and jockey Joel Cruz has posted a 17% win rate with 52% in the money. The 7/2 morning line makes this a reasonable third wheel for exotic tickets.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Major Confidence21%
2Zolfo19%
6Keepmeinny17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:06 PM EST

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short-field allowance sprint where the top-rated horse has been a model of consistency and the form lines are tighter than the morning line gaps suggest — this race looks more competitive than a one-sided affair on paper.

win5InterstatelovesongML 4/1

Interstatelovesong is the top-rated horse at 85.62 and brings the most compelling recent form in this race: placed in all 5 of her dirt starts and has hit the board in each of her last 5 races overall. The recent race speed ranks second in the field at 12.22 sec/furlong. The 100% in-the-money rate on dirt is the kind of stat that stands out in an allowance field, and our sims backed the number — Interstatelovesong won 24.8% of 10,000 simulations. The one honest knock is jockey Rajiv Maragh's C grade, so the connections aren't all elite here, but the horse's own record does the talking.

place3Angel GiftML 5/2

Angel Gift has the second-highest rating at 73.25 and brings a 33% career win rate along with consecutive in-the-money finishes in each of the last 3 starts — the kind of form cycle that makes a trainer confident entering a race like this. Jockey Andre Worrie has a 21% win rate and 54% in-the-money mark over the past year. The 5/2 morning line makes this the second choice, and the recent form streak supports that positioning.

show4Daniella MarieML 7/2

Daniella Marie rates third at 64.18 and owns a 37% career win rate — the highest in this field — along with a 62% in-the-money rate. The Flores/Barrow combo once again shows well with their 22% win rate and 60% in-the-money figure. The concern worth noting is a poor recent workout rank (sixth in the field at 12.35 sec/furlong), which tempers enthusiasm slightly but doesn't eliminate this mare from trifecta consideration at 7/2.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Interstatelovesong25%
3Angel Gift23%
2Paula's a Star18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

1:34 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile claiming race with three horses bunched tightly at the top of the ratings — Fiscal Drag, Trinity River, and Percy are separated by just 3.7 points — which sets up a genuine pace battle and makes exacta coverage essential.

win1Fiscal DragML 5/2

Fiscal Drag tops the field with an 87.81 rating despite a modest 11% career win rate. The Finger Lakes record is the angle worth highlighting: placed in 4 of 5 starts at this specific track, showing real comfort with the conditions. Recent pace ranks second in the field at 12.73 sec/furlong, and four in-the-money finishes in the last six races point to a horse in solid, consistent form. Trainer Rachel Sells carries a C+ grade, which is a mild concern, but the track record here is a genuine positive.

place5Trinity RiverML 2/1

Trinity River holds an 86.26 rating and shows the fastest recent race speed in this field at 12.50 sec/furlong — that's a real edge going a route after sprinting figures. The Perez/Ferraro jockey-trainer combo fires at 25% wins and 58% in the money over the past year. The honest concern: Trinity River has placed in zero of three starts at the one-mile distance, which is a red flag in a route. Good enough to land on our place ticket, but that distance blank keeps us from going all-in.

show2PercyML 7/2

Percy brings a 61% in-the-money career rate and has cashed in 10 of 14 starts at Finger Lakes specifically, making this a local specialist who knows his way around this oval. The concern is recent race speed ranking sixth in the field, which suggests Percy may be relying on trip luck and tactical placement rather than raw figure superiority. At 7/2, the familiarity with Finger Lakes and the deep in-the-money record make Percy a logical show play and an exotic inclusion.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Trinity River25%
1Fiscal Drag24%
2Percy22%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:03 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse claiming sprint with real spread at the top — Tekila's 87.08 rating stands alone above the pack, and several claiming price drops throughout the field signal connections looking for easier spots, which muddies the waters underneath.

win5TekilaML 3/1

Tekila owns the top rating in this field at 87.08 and backs it up with the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.47 sec/furlong. The dirt record is extensive: 5 wins from 38 starts on the surface with a 53% in-the-money rate. The age flag — Tekila is 8 years old — is real, and older claimers can be unpredictable, but the recent form and figures justify the top billing. Our sims gave Tekila a 26.8% win share, by far the highest in this field, making this a legitimate win candidate despite the age caveat.

place2Only in My DreamsML 7/2

Only in My Dreams rates second at 73.94 and shows the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.38 sec/furlong — a meaningful figure advantage in a claiming sprint. The dirt record checks out too: placed in 10 of 18 starts on the surface and has hit the board in 4 of the last 6 races. At 7/2, this is a solid place play with enough upside to consider on top in exotics.

show8HypnocurrencyML 4/1

Hypnocurrency rates third at 58.08 and has hit the board in each of the last two races — the best recent momentum of any horse in the second tier of this field. The age concern (6 years old) is noted, and the C-grade trainer isn't inspiring, but back-to-back in-the-money finishes are hard to ignore in a wide-open claiming sprint. The 4/1 morning line offers fair value for a show ticket.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Tekila27%
2Only in My Dreams20%
8Hypnocurrency13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

2:32 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A nine-horse maiden claiming route where the top two rated horses are separated by nearly 10 points from the rest of the field — but multiple claiming price drops signal that connections are shopping for the right spot, adding intrigue below the top.

win7Broken RecordML 5/1

Broken Record tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 and owns the most compelling form line in this maiden field: placed in 6 of 10 dirt starts and has been in the money in each of the last 4 races — the longest active streak in this field. The Gomez/Barrow combo has combined for a 20% win rate and 53% in-the-money rate. Our simulations gave Broken Record a 20.3% win share, second-highest in the race, with upside at 5/1 on the morning line.

place9Speightful SamML 9/2

Speightful Sam rates second in the field at 74.75 and shows the fastest recent race speed among all nine horses at 12.73 sec/furlong. The Coa/Ferraro duo here is especially notable — a 31% win rate and 76% in-the-money mark over the past year is elite-level for this circuit. The 9/2 morning line gives fair value for a horse with top figures and elite connections.

show5D C Boy'sML 3/1

D C Boy's rates third at 69.44 and brings an interesting class drop angle — the claiming price has been reduced significantly, which often signals a trainer targeting a specific level for a win. The second-fastest recent race speed in the field (12.83 sec/furlong) keeps this horse in the figure conversation. The age flag (older than field average by 1.3 years) and the modest 25% in-the-money rate are worth watching, but at 3/1 the speed and class drop make D C Boy's a logical exotic play.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

7Broken Record20%
5D C Boy's19%
9Speightful Sam17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

3:01 PM EST

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An eight-horse claiming sprint where Morning Cup's rating superiority is clear, but Winston D's red-hot recent form and Deputy Tramon's consistent in-the-money record mean the top pick won't get loose on the front end without a fight.

win2Morning CupML 7/2

Morning Cup holds the highest rating in the field at 86.35 and owns the fastest recent race speed of any horse in this race at 12.19 sec/furlong — a legitimate figure edge in a claiming sprint. The dirt record shows 7 wins from 39 starts on the surface, and the 52% in-the-money rate reflects steady reliability. Jockey Andre Worrie has a 21% win rate over the past year. The only flag is age — Morning Cup is 7 years old — but the speed figures and form don't yet show a horse in decline. Our sims gave Morning Cup a 22.7% win share.

place6Winston DML 4/1

Winston D rates second at 81.69 and brings the hottest recent form in this race: in the money in 5 of the last 6 starts, including back-to-back hits most recently. The second-fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.26 sec/furlong keeps Winston D right in the figure picture. At 4/1, this is a strong place ticket and a legitimate win threat if Morning Cup hits any trouble.

show4Mr. Sugar DaddyML 5/1

Mr. Sugar Daddy rates fourth overall at 71.25 but brings a valuable recent form profile — in the money in 4 of the last 6 races. The Gomez/Barrow tandem has a 20% win rate and 53% in-the-money rate when paired. The concern to flag honestly is the distance record at 5.5 furlongs: placed in just 1 of 5 starts at this exact trip. That's worth noting, but the in-the-money consistency and trainer strength keep Mr. Sugar Daddy on the exotic ticket at 5/1.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Morning Cup23%
6Winston D18%
4Mr. Sugar Daddy14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

3:30 PM EST

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The feature-style optional claiming sprint looks like a two-horse race at the top, with Bustin Away and Capt Jax Parrow both showing sharp recent figures — but Stars N Stones' remarkable 75% in-the-money rate offers a genuine price play underneath.

win7Bustin AwayML 2/1

Bustin Away is the top-rated horse in this field at 88.54 and owns the fastest recent race speed of any runner in the race at 11.91 sec/furlong. The win percentage is elite: a 41% career win rate from 22 dirt starts, with 10 wins total on the surface. Our simulations gave Bustin Away a dominant 30.7% win share — nearly 8 points clear of the next horse. The 2/1 morning line reflects the market respect, and nothing in this field looks likely to outrun those figures.

place1Capt Jax ParrowML 5/2

Capt Jax Parrow rates second at 77.69 and shows the second-fastest recent race speed at 11.92 sec/furlong — close enough to Bustin Away to stay competitive in the early going. The dirt record shows 6 wins from 23 starts with a 56% in-the-money rate, and has hit the board in each of the last 3 races. The rest concern (only 15 days since last start, performs better on 30+) is worth flagging, but the figures and recent form keep this firmly in the place conversation at 5/2.

show3Stars N StonesML 12/1

Stars N Stones is a legit price play for the show spot and might be even more. The 75% in-the-money career rate from 28 dirt starts is extraordinary for this level, and an active 5-race hitting streak heading into today is the strongest recent form in the field outside the top two. The C-grade jockey is the concern — Steven Fret's rating is a step below the top pilots in this race — and the 12/1 morning line reflects that. But the consistency numbers and the hitting streak make Stars N Stones a must-use in trifecta tickets at a price.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

7Bustin Away31%
1Capt Jax Parrow23%
5Takeschargesmiling14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 9

3:59 PM EST

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse claiming sprint with a narrow rating gap at the top — Good Mission, Tahila, and Big Jackie are separated by just under 7 points — setting up a genuinely competitive race where pace positioning and recent form could be the deciding factors.

win6Good MissionML 5/1

Good Mission holds the top rating in the field at 84.17 and shows the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.37 sec/furlong. The Flores/Barrow jockey-trainer combo continues to pay dividends throughout the card — 22% wins and 60% in the money over the past year. The one concern worth acknowledging is the age flag (older than the field average by 1.3 years), but nothing in the recent figures suggests decline. Our simulations gave Good Mission a 17.4% win share, edging out Tahila for the top spot.

place9TahilaML 7/2

Tahila rates second at 81.05 and brings one of the strongest connection packages in this race — the Baez/Saul combination hits at a 26% win rate and 61% in the money over the past year. The dirt record shows placed in 8 of 11 starts on the surface, an excellent conversion rate. The concern is recent race speed ranking seventh (12.79 sec/furlong), suggesting Tahila may be relying more on tactical racing than raw figure superiority. Still a legitimate place threat at 7/2.

show1Big JackieML 4/1

Big Jackie rates third at 78.33 and owns a terrific Finger Lakes-specific record: placed in 3 of 4 starts at this exact track, suggesting a real comfort level with the oval. The Perez/Ferraro combo fires at 25% wins and 58% in the money, one of the stronger pairings on today's program. The minor concern is a 27-day layoff when the horse reportedly performs better on 30 or more days rest — a close call, but not disqualifying. At 4/1, Big Jackie rounds out a solid trifecta combination.

We ran Race 9 10,000 times. Most wins:

9Tahila20%
6Good Mission17%
1Big Jackie17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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The headline play is clear: Always Packen in Race 1 is your free best bet today at Finger Lakes, backed by the top speed figure in the field and a sharp jockey angle. For the other eight races — including a potential standout in Race 8 with Bustin Away posting the fastest recent speed figure on the entire card — the full TrackWiz breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Good luck at the windows today.

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