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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — September 1, 2026

September 1, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

This card ran on September 1, 2026.

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Race 14Love ThyselfML 5/112:55 PM EDT

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Last 30 days at Finger Lakes: our top pick won 11 of 58 races (19%) and finished in the money in 33.

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Happy Labor Day weekend at Finger Lakes. We've got an 8-race all-dirt card going off under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 80°F — about as clean a racing day as upstate New York can offer heading into September. No weather excuses today; the footing should be consistent and the times honest.

The card is heavy on claiming races, which is standard fare at the Finger Lakes meet, but don't let that fool you into thinking it's a throwaway day. Claiming races at this level can be deceptively tricky to handicap — horses move up, drop down, and change hands regularly, so pace scenarios and class dynamics matter more than ever. Today's card has a few spots where our analysis spotted some real overlay potential.

Race 7 steps up in class with an Allowance event going a mile and 70 yards — the most prestigious condition on today's program and a natural anchor for multi-race exotic tickets. We'll get to all of it below.

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Race 1

12:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A mile and 70 yards on the dirt with a clear TrackWiz rating standout, but a 30% career winner lurking at a juicy price makes this far from a lock.

win4Love ThyselfML 5/1

Love Thyself (4) owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.17 — a meaningful gap over the next-closest contenders — and backs it up with a 19% career win rate that stands out in this claiming company. Jose Baez gets the call, and the extra ground of a mile and 70 yards should suit a horse whose profile points to needing time to build into a race. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here for a horse that grades out as the class of the field.

place6Soho NightsML 5/1

Soho Nights (6) is the sneaky threat with a 30% career win percentage — by far the best in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 67.99 that puts her squarely in the mix. Trainer Thalia Areche sends her out with Nazario Alvarado, and that win rate suggests she knows how to fire on the right day. At 5/1, she's not giving you much overlay to win, but she's a strong place horse in any exotic structure.

show1Ma Mi Jo DreamsML 5/2

Ma Mi Jo Dreams (1) draws the rail and comes in as the morning-line favorite at 5/2, which tells you the public respects her even if our analysis has her third. A 60 TrackWiz rating and a 13% career win clip are modest but workable in this field, and Joel Cruz should be able to get a good trip from the inside post. She's the kind of horse you want underneath in exactas and trifectas as a reliable price cushion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Diva Banker comes in with a massive rating advantage in a short 5½-furlong sprint, but Grand Lady Indy and the morning-line favorite Hypnocurrency could make it interesting if the pace gets honest.

win3Diva BankerML 2/1

Diva Banker (3) is the standout here with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — over 29 points clear of the next horse — and trainer David Oyola puts Michael A. Davila, Jr. in the irons for what looks like a serious effort. The 2/1 morning line is fair for a horse who grades out this far ahead of the field on our numbers. The 5½-furlong sprint distance plays to speed figures, and Diva Banker's edge on that front makes her the horse to beat.

place4Grand Lady IndyML 4/1

Grand Lady Indy (4) is the logical place play at 4/1, rating out at 59.3 with a 12% career win rate and a competitive average speed figure for this level. Luis Pena picks up the mount for trainer Samuel Morales, and a horse sitting mid-pack in the ratings at a price like this is exactly the kind of place value that pays off in exactas. If Diva Banker draws the early pressure, Grand Lady Indy has the profile of a horse that swoops late.

show1HypnocurrencyML 9/5

Hypnocurrency (1) is the morning-line favorite at 9/5, which creates an interesting dynamic — the public loves her more than our model does, with a 57.42 rating ranking her third in the field. That 11% career win rate is middle-of-the-road, but she's got the early speed to be dangerous over 5½ furlongs with Oscar Gomez handling pace management from the inside post. She's a show anchor in trifectas precisely because the crowd money will keep her odds compressed.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

The first three races on the card are open to all TrackWiz readers, and there's a nice thread connecting them: we're looking at two route races bookending a short sprint, all on a dirt surface that should play fairly. Love Thyself opens the card at a juicy 5/1 morning line going a mile and 70 yards — that's a price worth circling. Diva Banker draws our eye in Race 2 as the morning-line favorite at 2/1, posting the highest TrackWiz rating of the three free races at 88.54, which suggests the market has her right. Then Well Suited rounds out the free trio in Race 3 at 4/1 going a flat mile — another route where pace scenario figures to be a key factor.

If there's a unifying angle across these three, it's that the dirt routing horses (Races 1 and 3) are both priced above even money, meaning the public isn't pounding them — that's where value tends to live on a regional card like this. Dig into the free race analyses before you build any tickets today.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Well Suited carries a big rating edge into a one-mile claiming battle, but Trew Violence as the morning-line favorite sets up an intriguing odds-versus-ratings mismatch worth exploiting.

win2Well SuitedML 4/1

Well Suited (2) posts the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62 — a solid 14-point gap over Trew Violence — and her average speed figure of 53 is the best among the contenders. Oscar Gomez is a capable hand for trainer Thalia Areche, who is no stranger to winning races at this level. The 4/1 morning line represents genuine value for a horse our model pegs as the clear top selection, and the one-mile distance gives her room to settle and build.

place5Trew ViolenceML 2/1

Trew Violence (5) is the public's choice at 2/1 and carries a 71.23 rating along with a solid 14% career win percentage — the best win rate among the main contenders. Luis Pena rides for trainer John A. Grabowski, and from post 5 she should get a clean trip with no traffic concerns. She's a perfectly logical place finisher who figures to press or stalk the early pace, making her a natural underneath Well Suited in the exacta.

show1Solo DancingML 5/2

Solo Dancing (1) draws the rail at 5/2 morning line and checks in with a 63.58 TrackWiz rating that puts her third in this field. Christopher Elliott guides her for trainer Ralph D'Alessandro, and that inside post over a mile can be a significant advantage if she breaks cleanly and secures a ground-saving trip. At 5/2, she's not a screaming show value, but she's reliable enough to anchor trifecta tickets as the rail runner with upside.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

2:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This is a subscriber-only race on TrackWiz — three horses rated 78 or better sets up a compact but high-quality top of the field, while the public's 3/2 favorite grades out well below the top trio.

win1AllofasuddenleeML 3/1

Allofasuddenlee (1) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and takes the rail in a 5½-furlong sprint, a setup that rewards horses who break sharply and dictate terms. Jose Baez is a strong pilot for trainer David M. Rivera, and the 3/1 morning line looks fair given the horse's commanding rating lead. The modest 4% career win rate is a flag worth noting — but in a sprint like this, one good trip can overcome a winless recent pattern.

place2Ride ShareML 5/1

Ride Share (2) sits just behind at 83.57 on our ratings with a much more encouraging 12% career win clip, suggesting this horse has done it before and knows how to finish. Kevin Navarro takes the mount for Jonathan B. Buckley, and the 5/1 morning line makes Ride Share a genuine place value with the second-best rating in the field. In a pace scenario where Allofasuddenlee goes early and gets caught, Ride Share profiles as the most dangerous stalker.

show3Montauk MemoirsML 5/2

Montauk Memoirs (3) rounds out the top three with a 78.81 TrackWiz rating and draws post 3, which gives Jeremias Flores a clean sightline to the pace from the start. Paul W. Barrow trains, and while the 7% career win rate is modest, a rating within nine points of the top horse in a claiming sprint means this one is very much alive for a piece. At 5/2, the morning line actually implies more confidence from oddsmakers than our model grants — use accordingly in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

2:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Eight horses spread across a tight rating cluster in this 5½-furlong claiming sprint — Montauk Surf, Deputy Tramon, and Three Little Birds sit within three points of each other, which screams pace battle and exotic opportunity.

win2Montauk SurfML 6/1

Montauk Surf (2) edges out the field with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and matches the top average speed figure in the race at 54, which is the right number to be posting in a sprint. Kevin Navarro gets the ride for trainer Paul W. Barrow, who also saddles Connect the Brocks — meaning Barrow has two bullets in the chamber. At 6/1 on the morning line, there's real overlay here for a horse whose numbers say she should be closer to even money.

place1Deputy TramonML 4/1

Deputy Tramon (1) is a strong place play at 4/1 with an 80.73 rating and a matching 54 average speed figure — he's right there with the top horses on raw ability. Oscar Gomez takes the assignment for trainer Richard Shaffer, who also runs Last Drink in this race, giving him a tactical option in the pace scenario. From the rail, Deputy Tramon could steal a ground-saving trip and be very tough to shake loose in the stretch.

show6Three Little BirdsML 5/2

Three Little Birds (6) checks in at 79.5 on our ratings — just two and a half points off the top — and brings a 12% career win rate that suggests legitimate ability to close out races. Joel Cruz rides for Charlton Baker, and at 5/2 on the morning line, this horse is the public's de facto co-favorite alongside the top-rated pair. In a three-horse photo finish scenario, Three Little Birds is the one you want under the wire for exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Emerald Forest arrives with the best speed figure and highest TrackWiz rating in the field, but a 24% career win rate backs it up — this one looks like a short-price hammer in the 5½-furlong sprint.

win6Emerald ForestML 9/5

Emerald Forest (6) is the horse in this race, full stop — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating leads the field, and a 55 average speed figure is a full tick better than any other runner. Add in a 24% career win rate and you have a horse who not only grades out on top but has proven she can convert. Andre Shivnarine Worrie takes the mount for trainer Charlton Baker, and the 9/5 morning line is short but deserved — sometimes the favorite is just the right play.

place3NyikosML 3/1

Nyikos (3) is the natural place play at 3/1, posting an 83.87 rating and matching Emerald Forest's rivals with a strong 18% career win percentage and a 54 average speed figure. Jose Baez rides for trainer Dana Saul, who has a knack for placing horses in spots they can hit the board. If Emerald Forest draws heat on the front end, Nyikos has the numbers to run her down or at least secure a piece.

show2ProfitabilityML 6/1

Profitability (2) is our show selection at 6/1 morning line, rating out at 68.24 — a tick below the top two but clearly in the mix for a piece of the purse in a five-horse effective field. Luis E. Perez handles the riding duties for M. Anthony Ferraro, and a 7% career win rate in claiming ranks might look modest, but the 6/1 price gives you enough return to make the show position worthwhile in exotic plays. Use her underneath the top two in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

3:49 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

An allowance test at a mile and 70 yards draws eight horses, with Hey Pal separating himself on the TrackWiz ratings — though Call Saul's eye-popping 33% career win rate will catch the attention of savvy bettors.

win5Hey PalML 5/2

Hey Pal (5) is the top-rated horse in this allowance field at 87.81 — a meaningful edge over the 72-point next contender — and Keiber J. Coa brings quality hands to the assignment for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro. A 11% career win rate is respectable in allowance company, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the public isn't overreacting to the rating edge. The added ground of a mile and 70 yards is the right spot for a horse whose profile suggests he builds through a race.

place3AlmezML 4/1

Almez (3) slots in as our place pick with a 72.82 TrackWiz rating and an 11% career win rate that mirrors Hey Pal's hit rate — she just grades out slightly below on our numbers. Sofia Vives is in the saddle for trainer Michael S. Ferraro, and the 4/1 morning line gives you a nice price on a horse that has every right to be in the photo. The mile-and-70-yard distance gives her room to make a move in the final quarter-mile.

show4Resilient HeroML 7/2

Resilient Hero (4) rounds out the top three at 68.7 on our ratings and is trained by Jose M. Jimenez with Kevin Navarro up — a jockey who's been active and effective on this card. The 5% career win rate is lower than you'd like, but this is allowance company and the rating puts him squarely in contention for a placing. At 7/2 morning line, he's short enough that the crowd agrees he belongs, and he's the right horse to anchor trifecta tickets underneath the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

4:18 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt to close the card — Scarlett Queen owns a massive rating edge, but with every horse in the field still searching for their first win, form can be unpredictable and the right trip matters enormously.

win3Scarlett QueenML 5/2

Scarlett Queen (3) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field at 87.81 — a full 23 points clear of the next horse — and posts a 53 average speed figure that outpaces most of this group. Luis Pena rides for trainer John A. Grabowski, and the 5/2 morning line suggests oddsmakers see what our model sees. In maiden races, the horse with the clearest ability advantage often finds a way to break through, and this looks like Scarlett Queen's spot.

place1All Fun N GamesML 2/1

All Fun N Games (1) draws the rail with a 64.75 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — and Jacqueline A. Davis takes the mount for trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter. The 2/1 morning line makes her the public co-favorite, and while our model has Scarlett Queen clearly ahead, the inside post in a sprint can negate a modest rating gap if she breaks cleanly. She's the right place play: solid enough to hit the board, priced right to matter in exactas.

show7Find Me a PrinceML 5/1

Find Me a Prince (7) sits third in our ratings at 57.96 and draws post 7 with Kevin Navarro up for trainer Jonathan B. Buckley. In a maiden sprint where anything can happen, a 5/1 morning line on a horse with the third-best model rating gives you real show value for a small ticket. Buckley has sent out horses ready to run on this card, and Find Me a Prince deserves a spot on your trifecta underneath the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Bottom line: it's a clean late-summer afternoon at Finger Lakes with eight dirt races and several live overlays on the board. Love Thyself and Well Suited stand out as value angles in the free races, while Diva Banker looks like a legitimate short-price play in Race 2. The full card — including the Allowance feature and our exotic ticket breakdowns — is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and bet smart.

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