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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — August 26, 2026

August 26, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

Results are in — see the official Finger Lakes chart and payouts (our top pick won 1 of 8)→

It's a beautiful Wednesday at Finger Lakes — clear skies, 77°F, and a firm dirt surface that should play true all afternoon. Eight races are on tap, all contested on the main track, so pace scenarios and speed figures are going to matter from the jump. No excuses for the horses today; conditions are as clean as you'll get all summer.

The card is heavy on claiming action, which means you'll want to pay close attention to class movement. Horses dropping in for a tag often carry a sharp angle, and TrackWiz analysis has flagged several spots where the price and the profile line up nicely. We've also got a Maiden Special Weight sprint in Race 6 that could be one of the more interesting betting puzzles on the card.

Three races are open to all readers today, and five are available to TrackWiz subscribers. Let's walk through what's in store.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short six-furlong dirt opener that shapes up as a two-horse battle at the top, with a clear morning-line favorite holding a significant rating edge over a competitive mid-pack cluster.

win3Khali's DreamML 2/1

Khali's Dream draws the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 and comes in as the 2/1 morning-line choice — and the numbers back up that favoritism. Trainer Chris J. Englehart keeps this one sharp, and jockey Andre Shivnarine Worrie gets the call. With a 16% career win rate and a rating that towers over everyone but Breaking Stones, Khali's Dream looks like the one to beat going six furlongs on the dirt.

place7Breaking StonesML 3/1

Breaking Stones is right on Khali's Dream's heels with an 85.62 rating and draws in at 3/1 on the morning line — honest odds for a horse that grades out this well. Jeremias Flores takes the mount for trainer Paul W. Barrow, and with an average speed figure of 55 (tied for tops in the field), Breaking Stones has the raw ability to run down anything that gets loose on the front end.

show5Charging AeroML 5/2

Charging Aero is the class play in terms of career win percentage — a field-best 24% — and that kind of strike rate at any level demands respect in exotics. Joel Cruz rides for Rafael Jose Rohena, and Charging Aero's average speed of 55 matches Breaking Stones for pace. At 5/2, the price isn't generous, but the win consistency makes this a reliable show ticket to anchor trifecta coverage.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Going long at a mile on the dirt, this claiming field features a heavy favorite that's tough to ignore on ratings alone — but an intriguing value play lurking at double-digit odds could make the exotics very interesting.

win1Eric From MiamiML 8/5

Eric From Miami carries an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in this field by a comfortable margin — and the 8/5 morning line reflects that dominance. Trainer Timothy P. Murphy puts Michael A. Davila, Jr. in the irons, a combination worth noting. The one caution flag is a 7% career win rate, so while the talent is clearly there, this horse hasn't always converted. Still, the rating gap here is significant enough to make Eric From Miami the play.

place4Whiskey FrensML 10/1

Whiskey Frens is the TrackWiz value call of this race, sitting at 10/1 on the morning line despite owning the best career win rate in the field at 16%. The rating of 74.28 slots in third overall, and trainer Rachel Sells sends out Andre Shivnarine Worrie — an active book at this meet. At those odds, Whiskey Frens is a must-use underneath in exactas and trifectas.

show3Street Cop OfficerML 5/2

Street Cop Officer lands third in our ratings at 69.64 and is reasonably priced at 5/2 to factor. Jacqueline A. Davis rides for Eduardo Maver, Jr., and with an 8% career win rate over the mile, this one profiles as a closer who can pick up pieces when the pace scenario sets up right. A solid show-ticket anchor.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong claiming sprint for fillies and mares is a tricky puzzle — the top-rated horse is a morning-line longshot, giving the race a genuine upset feel with real value at the top of the ticket.

win7FairweatherloverML 6/1

Fairweatherlover is the standout on TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 despite going off at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a meaningful disconnect worth exploiting. Joel Cruz picks up the mount for trainer Beth Miller-Saul, and the 12% career win rate is respectable in this spot. The average speed of 54 matches Cinnamon Sugar for third-best in the field, and our model says this is the horse the market is underrating. Prime value at the top of the card.

place2Lady BankerML 5/1

Lady Banker rates second in the field at 64.58 but carries a modest 3% career win rate — this is a horse that has been knocking on the door without much luck converting. Trainer Ralph D'Alessandro sends Emanuel De Diego out at 5/1, and the average speed of 53 fits the pace of this race. Even with the low win percentage, the rating suggests Lady Banker fires a big effort here and is a strong place play in the exotics.

show1TahilaML 3/1

Tahila checks in at 60.83 on the TrackWiz scale and is the morning-line favorite at 3/1, though the 6% career win rate suggests the public may be slightly over-trusting the chalk. Heman K. Harkie rides for trainer Dana Saul, and an average speed of 53 puts this one right in the mix. As a show play, Tahila is a reliable safety net given the morning-line support.

The free portion of today's card gives you a solid sample of what this meet has to offer. Race 1 kicks things off with Khali's Dream (morning line 2/1, TrackWiz rating 88.54) in a 6-furlong dirt claiming sprint — a race where early pace control could be decisive on a surface playing this fast. In Race 2, Eric From Miami (8/5 ML, 89.12 rating) tops the field going a flat mile, posting the highest TrackWiz rating among today's free picks and looking like a legitimate chalk play. Then in Race 3, keep an eye on Fairweatherlover — rated out at 82.71 but sitting at a juicy 6/1 on the morning line, which is exactly the kind of overlay that makes claiming races worth digging into.

A common thread across all three free races: the consistent dirt surface today eliminates any wet-track wildcards, meaning horses with strong recent figures on a fast track should translate well. If you're building a Pick 3 strategy around Races 1-3, those three names are your logical anchors.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A full field of eight goes a mile on the dirt in this claiming route, and the top two horses on the TrackWiz ratings sheet are separated by barely four points — expect a genuine stretch duel.

win3Oh Mrs. MaiselML 2/1

Oh Mrs. Maisel leads the field with an 88.54 rating and is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, and that combination of public confidence and model support makes this a clear top choice. Andre Shivnarine Worrie rides for trainer Linda K. Dixon, who keeps a sharp barn. The 9% career win rate is the only mild concern, but at a mile on the dirt, class tends to win out — and Oh Mrs. Maisel has it.

place5Dorth's Sol DancerML 3/1

Dorth's Sol Dancer rates a strong second at 84.02 and owns the best career win rate in the field at 18%, which is an underrated stat in a race like this. Luis E. Perez rides for Karl M. Grusmark, and the average speed of 53 is the best in the field. At 3/1, this is a horse that could easily flip the result on Oh Mrs. Maisel and win outright — don't just use underneath.

show8Fashionable KittyML 5/1

Fashionable Kitty slots in at a 75.47 rating and offers some value at 5/1 on the morning line given how well she grades out relative to the rest of the field outside the top two. J. M. Rohena gets the call for trainer Ralph D'Alessandro, and the 6% career win rate suggests this one runs hard without always closing the deal — perfect show-ticket profile in a competitive claiming mile.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

One of the most wide-open races on the card — eleven horses go a mile and 70 yards, and the top five on the ratings sheet are separated by just six points, setting up a genuine pace battle with multiple viable outcomes.

win8PropheticML 6/1

Prophetic is our top play at 6/1 on the morning line despite not owning the top rating — the 75.21 TrackWiz score sits first in the field, and that's what drives the call here. Kevin Navarro gets the mount for trainer Jonathan B. Buckley, and the 13% career win rate is workmanlike in a field this size. At a mile and 70 yards, pace dynamics matter, and Prophetic's rating edge gives us reason to think this one gets the right setup.

place10Mad MagicML 12/1

Mad Magic is the genuine longshot value in this race — priced at 12/1 on the morning line with a 73.96 rating and a field-leading 20% career win rate. Trainer Michael S. Ferraro runs this one from the outside post, and Keiber J. Coa takes the mount. That win percentage is impossible to ignore at those odds; horses that win one in five starts are dangerous at any price.

show3Hey TobyML 7/2

Hey Toby rates third overall at 72.10 and carries a 22% career win rate — second only to Mad Magic in terms of conversion rate in this field. Andre Shivnarine Worrie rides for Gregory E. Charlerie at 7/2, and the average speed of 53 puts this one firmly in the pace picture. A solid show play who could easily contend for more on the right trip.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight sprint at five and a half furlongs brings out a wide-open group of first-time and lightly-raced runners — nobody in this field has a career win, so ratings and raw speed figures do the heavy lifting.

win3No FilterML 5/2

No Filter leads all horses in this field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and the best average speed figure in the race at 55 — that's a significant edge in a maiden sprint where raw ability gets exposed early. Andre Shivnarine Worrie picks up the mount for trainer Chris J. Englehart, and this barn has been active on the card today with quality runners. The 5/2 morning line is fair — take No Filter as the win anchor.

place6Romantic CharmerML 3/1

Romantic Charmer rates second in the field at 84.08 and is priced at 3/1, making this the most logical exacta partner with No Filter. Keiber J. Coa rides for trainer Ralph D'Alessandro, and the 53 average speed is right in the middle of the pack — suggesting a closer profile that could be dangerous if the front-runners fade in the final furlong of this maiden sprint.

show4Concrete KidML 4/1

Concrete Kid slots in third on the TrackWiz scale at 80.38 and is a reasonable 4/1 on the morning line for trainer Paul W. Barrow with Oscar Gomez aboard. The average speed of 53 ties several others, but the rating separation from the rest of the field gives Concrete Kid a meaningful edge. A solid show bet and a key inclusion in trifecta play.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Ten horses stretch out to a mile and 70 yards in this claiming route, and the top-rated horse is a morning-line overlay — sharp bettors should take notice of a potential mispricing at the top of the ticket.

win3ThetribehasspokenML 6/1

Thetribehasspoken owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.71 but is listed at 6/1 on the morning line — a significant gap between our model's confidence and what the public sheet suggests. Heman K. Harkie rides for trainer Troy Smith, and the 9% career win rate fits the profile of a horse that has been pointing toward a bigger effort. At a mile and 70 yards, pace setup is everything, and Thetribehasspoken's rating says this is the one to trust.

place6Saratoga SunsetML 4/1

Saratoga Sunset comes in second on our ratings at 73.42 and is a logical 4/1 on the morning line with Jeremias Flores in the irons for trainer Paul W. Barrow. The 12% career win rate is solid, and with an average speed of 52 that matches much of the field, the pace scenario could set up perfectly for a horse of this profile to pick up the pieces in the stretch. Strong exacta partner.

show1PencimaML 15/1

Pencima is the longshot show play of the race, listed at 15/1 on the morning line but grading out at a respectable 64.24 on the TrackWiz scale. Jacqueline A. Davis rides for trainer Assaf Ronen, and the 10% career win rate suggests this horse competes — she just doesn't always close the deal. That rating-to-odds disconnect makes Pencima a live trifecta piece at a price that could pay well.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse claiming sprint at five and a half furlongs closes out the card, and a clear ratings standout is lurking at morning-line odds that represent real value — the kind of spot where TrackWiz analysis separates the contenders from the wishful thinkers.

win6Honey in the BankML 6/1

Honey in the Bank tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 82.71 — a dominant score — yet is priced at 6/1 on the morning line, making this one of the better value opportunities on the card today. Michael A. Davila, Jr. rides for trainer Thalia Areche, and the 8% career win rate is the only mild hesitation. But in a five-and-a-half furlong sprint, raw ability and pace position win races, and Honey in the Bank grades out well ahead of most of this field.

place9Immortal PoetML 3/1

Immortal Poet is the speed horse in this race — an average speed figure of 56 is the highest mark on the entire card today, and a career win rate of 25% backs up that raw talent. Reylu Gutierrez rides for trainer Paul W. Barrow, and at 3/1, this one is rightly respected by the morning line. If Honey in the Bank gets caught in traffic, Immortal Poet is the logical winner — a strong exacta play in either order.

show5No FactorML 7/2

No Factor slots in third on our ratings at 58.39 and brings a 54 average speed figure, which sits second in the field. Steven Fret rides for trainer Lisa A. Reed at 7/2, and the 9% career win rate fits the profile of a horse that competes hard without always finishing first. In a race where the top two options carry real upside, No Factor is the reliable show anchor to complete the trifecta.

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Bottom line for today at Finger Lakes: Eric From Miami is the most compelling free play on rating alone, Fairweatherlover is worth a look as a potential overlay in Race 3, and the premium races — especially the maiden sprint in Race 6 — have the kind of price-versus-profile mismatches that serious bettors live for. Full card analysis, pace projections, and exotic breakdowns are all waiting for subscribers. Enjoy the races.

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