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Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — September 29, 2026

September 29, 20268 racesAll Fairmount Park picks

It's a beautiful Tuesday at Fairmount Park — clear skies, 79°F, and a fast-playing dirt surface that should reward front-runners and horses with early speed. Conditions like these are about as good as it gets for late-September racing in Illinois, and with 8 races on the card, there's plenty of opportunity to find value from the first post to the nightcap.

The card is a mix of claiming company, a Maiden Special Weight, and a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming events — meaning the class picture shifts from race to race, and reading those class levels correctly is where the edge lives today. Our TrackWiz ratings span a tight range, which tells us this is a competitive card top to bottom. No walkovers, no throwouts — every race has a genuine shape to it.

Three races are unlocked and free to all readers. The remaining five are part of our full premium breakdown. Let's set the table.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 6-furlong dirt claimer where the morning-line favorite is not the TrackWiz top-rated horse — Smart Joker's rating edges the field but Strange Arrange and Via Del Corso bring winning pedigrees that could make the pace scenario messy.

win2Smart JokerML 3/1

Smart Joker earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.08, a significant gap over the rest of the contenders. Trained by James M. Watkins and piloted by Alexander Bendezu, this horse carries a 20% career win rate that slots comfortably into a field where most rivals are in the low-to-mid teens. The 3/1 morning line represents reasonable value for the class standout, and the pace setup at 6 furlongs on dirt should suit a horse rated this far ahead of the field.

place6Via Del CorsoML 7/2

Via Del Corso brings the second-best career win percentage in the race at 31% — a number that commands respect in a claiming field. Harold Mosier's trainee shows an average speed figure of 55, tying Ice Again for the field's best but doing so with a far stronger overall profile. At 7/2 on the morning line, Brody Martinez gets a live mount that has converted nearly one in three career starts.

show7Strange ArrangeML 8/5

Strange Arrange enters as the 8/5 morning-line favorite, and that career win percentage of 32% is the highest in the field — so the public clearly respects this one. The TrackWiz rating of 58.3 lags behind Smart Joker and Via Del Corso, which is why we slot Strange Arrange third rather than on top, but Johanis Aranguren's mount is the kind of consistent winner you want covering in exactas and trifectas.

Race 2

6:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This 5½-furlong dirt claimer features a fascinating dynamic: the morning-line favorite is NOT the TrackWiz top pick, and a 5/1 shot is being flagged as the best value while two other contenders cluster tightly in the ratings — expect a competitive pace and a potential upset.

win6Life of SaturdaysML 5/1

Life of Saturdays checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 78.97 — the highest in this field — despite going off at 5/1 on the morning line, making this our primary value play. Victor Lara's mount brings a 14% career win rate, which admittedly isn't eye-popping, but the rating gap over the morning-line favorite Diva Las Vegas is enough to warrant top billing. Trainer Teddy C. Randazzo puts this horse in a spot where the numbers clearly favor the upset, and 5½ furlongs on dirt is a distance that should suit the pace profile.

place4Diva Las VegasML EVN

Diva Las Vegas is the public's choice at even money, and a 74.86 TrackWiz rating backs up the market confidence to a degree. Trainer Terry Burdess has Alvin Ortiz aboard, and while the average speed figure of 52 is the lowest among the top contenders, class and consistency at this level may offset the raw speed deficit. She's legitimate for the place slot.

show5Long Tall WomanML 12/1

Long Tall Woman is the hidden gem of this race — a 73.96 TrackWiz rating buried under a 12/1 morning line makes this our value-show inclusion. The 21% career win rate is the best in the field, which tells you this horse knows how to finish in front. Luis H. Colon picks up the mount for Francisco Villa, and if the pace gets heated early, a closer with that kind of win percentage has every reason to be rolling late.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight sprinters over 6 furlongs on dirt — a full field of non-winners where Karazest stands out with a commanding rating gap, but the second and third choices in our analysis are close enough that the exacta and trifecta could pay well.

win8KarazestML 7/5

Karazest is the clear standout in this maiden field with a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 — the highest mark in the race by a comfortable margin. The average speed figure of 56 is the best in the field outright, which in a maiden race is often the single most predictive data point. Alexander Bendezu, one of the busiest and sharpest jockeys on this card, gets the call for trainer Scott Becker, a combination that generates confidence. At 7/5 morning line, Karazest is deservedly the favorite and our top selection.

place6MilaalahML 6/1

Milaalah rates second on our sheet at 80.10 and goes off at 6/1 — that's a meaningful overlay for a horse just a step behind the top pick. Trainer Harry E. Lynch sends out Frank Reyes, and the average speed figure of 53 is solid for this maiden company. In a race where the favorite is well-regarded but no horse in this field has broken their maiden yet, Milaalah offers real place value at a fair price.

show4Miss DuquoinML 2/1

Miss Duquoin comes in rated 77.45 — third on our sheet — and is the second choice on the morning line at 2/1, which speaks to trainer John Rednour Jr.'s strong local presence with two entrants in this race. Harold Joseph Ortega takes the ride, and the average speed figure of 52 keeps this one competitive at 6 furlongs. As a hedge in trifectas beneath Karazest and Milaalah, Miss Duquoin offers a sensible play at a shorter price than you'd normally want for third-slot exotics, but the rating justifies the inclusion.

Our three free previews today cover Races 1, 2, and 3 — and they paint an interesting picture right off the bat. Smart Joker opens the card in a 6-furlong claiming sprint and draws our top rating of 87.08 at a very digestible 3/1 morning line. In Race 2, Life of Saturdays is our call at 5/1 in the 5½-furlong claiming dash — that's genuine overlay territory if the pace sets up right, and on a surface playing this quick, pace scenarios matter. Then comes the Race 3 Maiden Special Weight, where Karazest earns our highest free-race score at 89.42 and comes in as the short-priced morning line favorite at 7/5. MSW fields can be tricky, but when a horse profiles this cleanly against maiden company, that rating carries real weight.

The throughline in the early races is straightforward: the dirt is playing fast, early speed has a lane, and horses who can get to the front or sit just off the pace without burning up are positioned well. Keep that in mind as you handicap these openers yourself.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt claimer that sets up as a two-horse race at the top of the ratings, with Mystic Power holding a sizable advantage over Patch O'Brien — but three competitive closers in the 50s could complicate things if the pace collapses.

win4Mystic PowerML 9/5

Mystic Power is the class of this field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 that stands well clear of every other entrant. Reynier Arrieta gets the mount for trainer Steve Manley, and at 9/5 on the morning line, the public has clearly identified this one. The 14% career win rate is modest but not unusual for a route horse at the claiming level, and the average speed figure of 51 fits comfortably in this group. One mile on Fairmount's dirt gives pace horses room to settle, and Mystic Power looks to have enough class to outrun this field.

place2Patch O'BrienML 2/1

Patch O'Brien is the second choice at 2/1 and earns it with a 66.24 TrackWiz rating, the second best in the field. Alexander Bendezu aboard for trainer Hugo Rodriguez is a live jockey-trainer combo, and the 12% career win rate, while low, suggests a horse that regularly competes near the front. In a race where Mystic Power could get caught wide or face early pressure, Patch O'Brien is well-positioned to sweep up the place money.

show3Mister SharpieML 7/1

Mister Sharpie at 7/1 brings the highest average speed figure among the trio of mid-field contenders at 54 — actually topping both Mystic Power and Patch O'Brien on that raw metric. Trainer Mike Durham sends out Javier Diego, and a TrackWiz rating of 56.93 puts this horse in the conversation for exotic plays. If the pace scenario sets up for a closer and the top two knock each other around, Mister Sharpie could easily be collecting a check.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Call Me Christine looks like a dominant favorite in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, carrying a massive rating advantage and the field's best career win percentage — the real question is who fills out the exotics beneath her.

win6Call Me ChristineML 6/5

Call Me Christine is simply in a different class here — a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 leads the field, and a career win percentage of 40% is the kind of number that makes you sit up straight. Brody Martinez rides for trainer Ralph Martinez, a sharp local barn, and the average speed figure of 55 ties for the field's best. At 6/5 on the morning line, the juice is short, but the numbers genuinely support heavy favoritism — this is a horse that closes out races at an elite rate for this level.

place4Golden EdgeML 12/1

Golden Edge is the value play in this race, carrying a 59.71 TrackWiz rating that nearly matches morning-line favorite Sunset Harbour while going off at 12/1. Trainer Tammy Hornsby puts Cory Orm on board, and the average speed figure of 54 is competitive. If Call Me Christine handles her end of the bargain, Golden Edge at a generous price makes for an attractive win/place combo underneath.

show1Sunset HarbourML 9/5

Sunset Harbour enters as the second choice at 9/5 and brings a 21% career win rate — the best in the field outside of Call Me Christine's exceptional 40%. Ademar Santos handles the ride for James M. Watkins, and a 59.21 TrackWiz rating places this one squarely in the mix for second money. The show slot here is really about exotic coverage — using Sunset Harbour third in trifectas beneath Call Me Christine and Golden Edge makes sense given the price discrepancy.

Race 6

8:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An Allowance Optional Claiming sprint over 5½ furlongs where two horses — Saint Ghaaleb and Smoked — separate themselves from the pack on both ratings and career win percentage, setting up what could be a barn-burner between two legitimate class horses.

win8Saint GhaalebML 5/2

Saint Ghaaleb tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and brings an elite career win percentage of 36% — tied with Smoked for the field's best but earning the nod at the top of our sheet on the overall rating profile. Victor Santiago rides for trainer Scott Becker, who also saddles W W Grand Finale in this race — a two-horse barn entry that speaks to Becker's confidence in this spot. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is a fair price for a horse with class, speed, and a jockey who knows how to close in short sprints.

place4SmokedML 4/1

Smoked is no pushover at 84.35 on the TrackWiz scale, and that 36% career win rate ties Saint Ghaaleb atop the field — this is genuinely a race between two top-tier horses. Julio E. Felix rides for Larry Rivelli, a trainer with a reputation for placing horses correctly. At 4/1, there's real value in using Smoked on top in exactas reversed with our win pick, because on any given day this horse could be the one crossing the wire first.

show2Sally's SupriseML 5/2

Sally's Suprise sits third on our ratings at 72.10 and goes off at 5/2, which makes her a public-supported third option in a race dominated by two standouts. Johanis Aranguren rides for Eduardo Rodriguez, and a 19% career win rate is respectable at the allowance optional claiming level. She fits comfortably as the show anchor in trifectas — if Saint Ghaaleb and Smoked split the exacta in either order, Sally's Suprise is likely grabbing the third check.

Race 7

9:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep 10-horse Allowance Optional Claiming field at 6 furlongs where four horses rate within striking distance of each other at the top — Gogh leads on paper, but Coolthing and Earl's Outlaw bring different pace profiles that could make this race shape up beautifully for closers.

win4GoghML 5/2

Gogh tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and draws the services of Luis H. Colon, one of the steadier riders on this card, for trainer Michele Boyce. The average speed figure of 55 is the second-best in the race and the 20% career win rate reflects a horse that shows up and competes. At 5/2 on the morning line, Gogh is being fairly assessed — the rating gap over the mid-field horses is real, and in an allowance optional claiming spot, class and consistency tend to win out.

place1CoolthingML 9/2

Coolthing is fascinating — an 83.69 TrackWiz rating paired with a 9/2 morning line and only a 6% career win rate creates an interesting disconnect. That low win percentage in a horse rated this highly often signals a horse that runs huge numbers but gets beaten in close finishes — a profile that screams place horse. Frank Reyes rides for Harry E. Lynch, and if the pace develops honestly over 6 furlongs, Coolthing's raw ability should be enough to earn a check.

show10Earl's OutlawML 5/1

Earl's Outlaw catches the eye immediately — a 79.75 TrackWiz rating is solid, but it's that average speed figure of 57 that stands out as the best in the entire race by a meaningful margin. Javier Tavares picks up the mount for Gabe Retana, and that 28% career win rate gives this horse legitimate win credentials, not just show. We slot Earl's Outlaw third on our sheet, but if you're playing the trifecta, using this one in multiple positions makes a lot of sense given the raw speed edge.

Race 8

9:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A sprawling 11-horse claiming route going a mile and 70 yards on dirt — Spanish Doubloon leads a competitive top group, but Mon Ami Fuzzie at 12/1 offers outstanding value, and the deep field makes exotics particularly appealing tonight.

win5Spanish DoubloonML 3/1

Spanish Doubloon tops our ratings at 78.32 and is the morning-line second choice at 3/1 — a combination that suggests solid public-and-model alignment. Ademar Santos rides for James M. Watkins, and the 15% career win rate is appropriate for a route horse working through claiming ranks. At a mile and 70 yards, pace scenario matters enormously, and a horse rated this well over a field this large has the class edge to dictate or respond as needed.

place3Mon Ami FuzzieML 12/1

Mon Ami Fuzzie is the best value on tonight's entire card — a 73.96 TrackWiz rating at 12/1 on the morning line is a significant overlay. Emmanuel Giles rides for Jose G. Rodriguez, and the average speed figure of 55 is the highest in this race, which is a big deal in a route where sustained pace matters. In a full field of 11 with a 12/1 price tag, this horse doesn't need to win to be profitable — place money at that kind of odds is worth targeting directly.

show7BasscoatML 7/2

Basscoat sits third on our ratings at 71.25 and is the third choice at 7/2 on the morning line. Brody Martinez takes the ride for trainer Michael E. Lauer, and while the 10% career win rate is modest, the TrackWiz score keeps this horse in the mix for the third slot. In a route race with a big, complicated field, having a 7/2 horse anchoring your trifecta show position is reasonable — the price isn't generous but the rating justifies the inclusion.

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Bottom line: Fairmount Park is dealing a clean, fast-dirt card on a gorgeous September afternoon. Karazest is the marquee free pick and the highest-rated horse in our open previews. Smart Joker and Life of Saturdays round out the early card with real upside at their respective prices. For the full Race 4–8 breakdown — pace scenarios, exotic plays, and our premium ratings — subscribers have everything they need waiting for them. Good luck, and as always, bet smart.

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