Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — August 22, 2026

Major League comes out of the 7-hole at 4/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 67.22, the second-best mark in the field, and pairs Javier Diego with trainer Mike Durham for a sprint distance that suits their typical profile. The average speed figure of 54 matches Ghidorah and suggests this horse can keep tabs on the favorite through the stretch. At 4/1, the place ticket offers solid overlay potential if Ghidorah drifts wide or gets caught up in early pressure.

Tuff Heart is an intriguing show option at 4/1 with a rating of 62.31, sitting just behind Major League in the hierarchy and drawn in the 9-hole with Reynier Arrieta in the saddle. Trainer Charles Davis Jr. doesn't flood the entries at Fairmount, which typically signals a horse he believes is ready to fire. The average speed figure of 53 is competitive, and the outside post sets up a clean trip for a closer in a field that could get fast early.

Lady Elise is the most logical alternative to Zee and represents the best price in the race with a meaningful form line. A career win rate of 25% in allowance company is the best in this field, and the TrackWiz rating of 84.27 shows she's not far behind the favorite. Trainer Mark J. Cristel sends her out with Frank Reyes up from the 6-hole — a clean post with a good sight line heading into the first turn. At 9/2, the place payoff could be worth chasing.

Arose for Lily is a curious include at 6/1 with a 100% career win rate — meaning she's been to the gate and won every time she's run. The sample size likely explains that figure, but it does suggest this horse hasn't been on the losing side when fit. A TrackWiz rating of 51.67 is a notable drop from the top two, but for a show ticket in exotics, the 6/1 price on a horse with a perfect record is worth a line.

Instastar breaks from the 4-post at 2/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 74.5 for trainer Ralph Martinez and jockey Brody Martinez — a barn-and-rider pairing that keeps things in-house, which is always worth noting. The career win rate of 9% is the best among the top three horses in this race, and the speed figure of 53 matches the favorite. If Regained Power draws first run early, Instastar has the profile to run her down in the stretch.

Free Choice is the value angle of this race — a TrackWiz rating of 73.96, essentially matching the top two horses, but sitting at 12/1 on the morning line with Alvin Ortiz up for trainer Mark W. Anderson. That price discrepancy is the kind of overlay our model is designed to surface. The career win rate of 5% is modest but similar to the favorite, and a show ticket here at double-digit odds in a three-way battle at the top could produce a meaningful return in exacta or trifecta construction.

Excellent Empire is the race's most compelling price at 9/1 on the morning line, sitting with a TrackWiz rating of 78.33 and a career win rate of 29% — the highest among all starters in the field. Trainer Ralph Martinez sends Brody Martinez out from the 3-hole, a tight inside draw that helps control position early in a six-furlong dash. The speed figure of 54 is one tick below the leaders, but that win percentage tells you this horse has a gear when it matters.

Lundberg exits the 2-post at 4/1 for trainer Fernando Bahena with Victor Lara up and a career win rate of 22% — strong for this level. The average speed figure of 55 matches He Gone at the top of the field, which means the raw ability is there even if the overall model rating sits at 62.85. In a race where the favorite could get caught wide or run into a pace duel, Lundberg is exactly the type you want underneath in trifecta plays.

Racarino is the horse most likely to push Strange Arrange, posting a TrackWiz rating of 82.69 and an average speed figure of 55 — ticking above the favorite in raw pace. Trainer Armando Hernandez sends out Frank Reyes from the outside 10-hole, which could mean a slightly wide trip, but a career win rate of 16% in starter allowance company is solid. The 4/1 morning line offers legitimate value for a horse this close to the top of the ratings.

Xavi is the show pick at 6/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 67.06 and Luis H. Colon in the saddle for trainer Frank C. Randazzo Jr. — a lower-profile barn that tends to win quietly when the spot is right. A career win rate of 15% in this company is respectable, and the average speed figure of 54 keeps pace with most of this field. In a race where the top two might run each other into the ground, Xavi has the right profile to pick up pieces at a price.

Pontus exits the 7-post at 2/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 80.36 and trainer Lori Plasters sending out Ademar Santos, a competent rider in this spot. The career win rate of 16% is solid for a claiming field this deep, and the speed figure of 53 keeps pace with most of the competition. If Lou Man is the speed of the speed, Pontus profiles as the horse most likely to run him down in the lane — the place price at short odds is really about securing your exotics.

Full Magazine is the value highlight of the card's finale — a TrackWiz rating of 71.4 and a morning line of 12/1 that looks well out of line with the actual edge our model sees. Trainer Eddie M. Essenpreis sends Reynier Arrieta from the 2-hole, a clean draw that could keep this horse out of early trouble in a crowded field. A career win rate of 12% in this company is legitimate, and at 12/1, Full Magazine is the kind of horse you use aggressively underneath in trifecta and superfecta plays to juice your returns.