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Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — August 22, 2026

August 22, 20268 racesAll Fairmount Park picks

Results are in — see the official Fairmount Park chart and payouts (our top pick won 1 of 8)→

It's a sunny Saturday at Fairmount Park — 84 degrees, skies clear, and the dirt track figures to be fast all afternoon. Eight races on the board, all on the main track, which means pace scenarios and surface biases are going to matter from the jump.

The card runs the full gamut: maiden special weights, claimers, allowance optional claiming, and a starter allowance sprinkled in. In other words, there's something for every kind of player — whether you're hunting for a big overlay in the opening maiden race or building multi-race tickets through the back half of the card.

TrackWiz has three free previews available to all readers today, covering Races 1, 2, and 3. The remaining five races — including what looks like the most intriguing betting opportunities of the afternoon — are unlocked for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight going a mile and 70 yards on the dirt, with no career wins in the field and a handful of horses bunched closely in the mid-range ratings — the top of the board is there for the taking.

win3My Last EscapadeML 9/2

My Last Escapade draws the 3-hole and carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 84.9, a significant gap over the rest of the card. Posting a morning line of 9/2, there's real value here relative to the edge our model sees. Trainer Adrian M. Salazar sends out Julio E. Felix, a capable hand around two turns, and the added distance of a mile and 70 yards should suit a horse that projects as a grinder over maiden competition.

place5Lies N DeceptionML 3/1

Lies N Deception out of the 5-hole posts the field's top average speed figure at 57 — the only horse in the race that clears the mid-50s threshold — which is a meaningful edge in a maiden sprint-to-route mix. The 3/1 morning line makes her the chalk, and trainer Gabe Retana has Ademar Santos up for what looks like a pace-pressing setup. If My Last Escapade softens up the pace, Lies N Deception has the raw figures to run her down.

show4I'm Thisty KidML 7/2

I'm Thisty Kid sits at 7/2 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 68.26, making this horse a solid third option in a wide-open maiden field. Trainer Harry E. Lynch has Victor Lara in the irons, and at a route distance, a horse that can settle and run on is always dangerous. The average speed figure of 53 is respectable for this level, and the odds imply more risk than our model suggests.

Race 2

6:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

This mile claiming race has a clear top horse in Lucky Destiny but features a pair of sneaky underlays — the pace scenario could get messy early, opening the door for a closer to collect at a price.

win7Lucky DestinyML 3/1

Lucky Destiny is the standout in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the only horse in the field that clears 65 by a meaningful margin. Trainer Scott Becker puts Alexander Bendezu in the irons, a reliable combination at Fairmount. A career win rate of 12% in claiming company adds credibility to the profile, and at 3/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for the level of edge our model identifies.

place6Sneaky FeetML 12/1

Sneaky Feet is the value story of this race — a TrackWiz rating of 63.32 that actually edges out Move in Silence at 62.84, yet the morning line sits at 12/1. Trainer Fernando Bahena has this horse positioned well off the pace, and Emmanuel Giles has the tactical awareness to drop in behind speed and pounce. A career win rate of just 3% raises a flag, but at those odds, the place ticket is where the value lives.

show5Move in SilenceML 5/2

Move in Silence breaks from the 5-hole at 5/2 under Victor Lara for the Ben Delong barn — the same barn sending out the 1-horse, which gives Delong a multi-entry angle worth noting. The rating of 62.84 is legitimate for this field, though the career win rate of 4% suggests this horse has a habit of hitting the board without getting to the winner's circle. A show ticket here is a reasonable hedge in exotics.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Ghidorah enters as a heavy favorite in this six-furlong maiden claimer, but the pace shapes up as fairly competitive with several horses capable of pressuring early — the real question is how much the morning-line chalk has left in the lane.

win8GhidorahML 8/5

Ghidorah sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 89.12 — a commanding number in a maiden claiming field — and draws the services of leading rider E.T. Baird for trainer Larry Rivelli. An 8/5 morning line reflects the field's respect for this horse, and the average speed figure of 54 ties with Major League at the top of the field. Rivelli is a sharp conditioner at this level, and Baird's ability to rate a horse over six furlongs in dirt is well established.

place7Major LeagueML 4/1

Major League comes out of the 7-hole at 4/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 67.22, the second-best mark in the field, and pairs Javier Diego with trainer Mike Durham for a sprint distance that suits their typical profile. The average speed figure of 54 matches Ghidorah and suggests this horse can keep tabs on the favorite through the stretch. At 4/1, the place ticket offers solid overlay potential if Ghidorah drifts wide or gets caught up in early pressure.

show9Tuff HeartML 4/1

Tuff Heart is an intriguing show option at 4/1 with a rating of 62.31, sitting just behind Major League in the hierarchy and drawn in the 9-hole with Reynier Arrieta in the saddle. Trainer Charles Davis Jr. doesn't flood the entries at Fairmount, which typically signals a horse he believes is ready to fire. The average speed figure of 53 is competitive, and the outside post sets up a clean trip for a closer in a field that could get fast early.

Our three free best bets today center on the early part of the card, and there's a clear thread running through all of them: early speed figures are jumping off the page on what should be a lightning-fast Fairmount dirt surface. In Race 1, My Last Escapade (9/2 morning line) drew our top TrackWiz rating of 84.9 in the maiden special weight going a mile and 70 yards — a route that can expose closers if the pace goes honest. In Race 2, Lucky Destiny (3/1) rates as the top claiming horse in the mile, posting an 87.08 — strong for this level. And in Race 3, Ghidorah is the one to beat at 8/5, packing a 89.12 TrackWiz rating in a 6-furlong maiden claimer — the highest free-race rating of the day and a horse worth getting behind early.

With the heat and a firm, fast surface expected all card long, horses with tactical speed and the ability to control their own destiny on the front end are worth prioritizing today. Keep that in mind as you dig into the free previews.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This allowance optional claiming sprint is headlined by a prohibitive favorite at 2/5, but there's a legitimate second horse at a real price — bettors should focus on structuring their tickets around the runner-up battle.

win5ZeeML 2/5

Zee is as dominant on paper as the 2/5 morning line suggests — a TrackWiz rating of 90.0 leads the field, and the average speed figure of 55 is the best in the race by two ticks. Trainer Michele Boyce sends Julio E. Felix out on a horse that has won 20% of career starts in allowance company. At this price, single-race win bets don't move the needle much, but Zee is the right anchor for exotics throughout the card.

place6Lady EliseML 9/2

Lady Elise is the most logical alternative to Zee and represents the best price in the race with a meaningful form line. A career win rate of 25% in allowance company is the best in this field, and the TrackWiz rating of 84.27 shows she's not far behind the favorite. Trainer Mark J. Cristel sends her out with Frank Reyes up from the 6-hole — a clean post with a good sight line heading into the first turn. At 9/2, the place payoff could be worth chasing.

show2Arose for LilyML 6/1

Arose for Lily is a curious include at 6/1 with a 100% career win rate — meaning she's been to the gate and won every time she's run. The sample size likely explains that figure, but it does suggest this horse hasn't been on the losing side when fit. A TrackWiz rating of 51.67 is a notable drop from the top two, but for a show ticket in exotics, the 6/1 price on a horse with a perfect record is worth a line.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tight five-and-a-half furlong claiming battle with three horses rated within five points of each other at the top — this one sets up as a true pace test with the winner likely coming from the group that rates just off the early fractions.

win6Regained PowerML 9/5

Regained Power draws the 6-hole and posts a TrackWiz rating of 79.34, the top mark in the field, while morning line oddsmakers agree at 9/5 — suggesting the sharp money is already on board. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez has a strong stable presence at Fairmount and sends Johanis Aranguren, who handles the sprint distance well. The average speed figure of 53 is in line with the field's top tier, and a career win rate of 5% in claiming company means this horse has been competitive without quite getting over — that can flip on the right day.

place4InstastarML 2/1

Instastar breaks from the 4-post at 2/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 74.5 for trainer Ralph Martinez and jockey Brody Martinez — a barn-and-rider pairing that keeps things in-house, which is always worth noting. The career win rate of 9% is the best among the top three horses in this race, and the speed figure of 53 matches the favorite. If Regained Power draws first run early, Instastar has the profile to run her down in the stretch.

show3Free ChoiceML 12/1

Free Choice is the value angle of this race — a TrackWiz rating of 73.96, essentially matching the top two horses, but sitting at 12/1 on the morning line with Alvin Ortiz up for trainer Mark W. Anderson. That price discrepancy is the kind of overlay our model is designed to surface. The career win rate of 5% is modest but similar to the favorite, and a show ticket here at double-digit odds in a three-way battle at the top could produce a meaningful return in exacta or trifecta construction.

Race 6

8:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

He Gone enters this six-furlong allowance optional claiming field as a heavy chalk, but Excellent Empire lurks as a serious price threat with a win percentage and speed figure that suggest the favorite can be pushed.

win10He GoneML 7/5

He Gone draws the 10-hole and brings the field's top TrackWiz rating at 88.87 along with an average speed figure of 55 — matching the best in the race. At 7/5 on the morning line, trainer Eduardo Rodriguez has Johanis Aranguren in the irons, a combination that's been productive at Fairmount this meet. A career win rate of 20% in allowance optional claiming company underscores that this horse knows how to finish races, and at six furlongs of dirt, this is a prime setup.

place3Excellent EmpireML 9/1

Excellent Empire is the race's most compelling price at 9/1 on the morning line, sitting with a TrackWiz rating of 78.33 and a career win rate of 29% — the highest among all starters in the field. Trainer Ralph Martinez sends Brody Martinez out from the 3-hole, a tight inside draw that helps control position early in a six-furlong dash. The speed figure of 54 is one tick below the leaders, but that win percentage tells you this horse has a gear when it matters.

show2LundbergML 4/1

Lundberg exits the 2-post at 4/1 for trainer Fernando Bahena with Victor Lara up and a career win rate of 22% — strong for this level. The average speed figure of 55 matches He Gone at the top of the field, which means the raw ability is there even if the overall model rating sits at 62.85. In a race where the favorite could get caught wide or run into a pace duel, Lundberg is exactly the type you want underneath in trifecta plays.

Race 7

9:00 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The starter allowance at six furlongs features a pair of standout horses at the top of the ratings — Strange Arrange and Racarino — and the battle between them could determine whether a closer sneaks into the picture for third.

win8Strange ArrangeML 2/1

Strange Arrange breaks from the 8-hole at 2/1 with the field's top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and an impressive career win rate of 34% — by far the best in this field. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez deploys Johanis Aranguren, the same combination that tops Race 6, suggesting a strong book for this barn tonight. An average speed figure of 54 in a six-furlong starter allowance is competitive, and a horse that wins more than one-in-three times is about as reliable as you'll find at Fairmount.

place10RacarinoML 4/1

Racarino is the horse most likely to push Strange Arrange, posting a TrackWiz rating of 82.69 and an average speed figure of 55 — ticking above the favorite in raw pace. Trainer Armando Hernandez sends out Frank Reyes from the outside 10-hole, which could mean a slightly wide trip, but a career win rate of 16% in starter allowance company is solid. The 4/1 morning line offers legitimate value for a horse this close to the top of the ratings.

show9XaviML 6/1

Xavi is the show pick at 6/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 67.06 and Luis H. Colon in the saddle for trainer Frank C. Randazzo Jr. — a lower-profile barn that tends to win quietly when the spot is right. A career win rate of 15% in this company is respectable, and the average speed figure of 54 keeps pace with most of this field. In a race where the top two might run each other into the ground, Xavi has the right profile to pick up pieces at a price.

Race 8

9:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a twelve-horse claiming sprint with a clear top two in Lou Man and Pontus — but Full Magazine lurks as a sneaky price that could scramble exacta and trifecta tickets throughout the card.

win4Lou ManML 7/2

Lou Man is the TrackWiz top pick with a rating of 86.35 and a career win rate of 28% — the best in this field by a sizable margin. Trainer Larry Rivelli puts Julio E. Felix in the irons from the 4-hole, an ideal inside draw in a twelve-horse sprint where early position is paramount. The average speed figure of 54 sits at the top tier of the field, and a horse that wins more than one-in-four times in claiming company is a genuine standout — 7/2 on the morning line is a fair price.

place7PontusML 2/1

Pontus exits the 7-post at 2/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 80.36 and trainer Lori Plasters sending out Ademar Santos, a competent rider in this spot. The career win rate of 16% is solid for a claiming field this deep, and the speed figure of 53 keeps pace with most of the competition. If Lou Man is the speed of the speed, Pontus profiles as the horse most likely to run him down in the lane — the place price at short odds is really about securing your exotics.

show2Full MagazineML 12/1

Full Magazine is the value highlight of the card's finale — a TrackWiz rating of 71.4 and a morning line of 12/1 that looks well out of line with the actual edge our model sees. Trainer Eddie M. Essenpreis sends Reynier Arrieta from the 2-hole, a clean draw that could keep this horse out of early trouble in a crowded field. A career win rate of 12% in this company is legitimate, and at 12/1, Full Magazine is the kind of horse you use aggressively underneath in trifecta and superfecta plays to juice your returns.

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Bottom line: Ghidorah is the standout free play of the day, Lucky Destiny offers solid value in the opener's second act, and the premium half of this card is loaded with angles worth attacking. Unlock the full TrackWiz analysis — including pace projections, exotic strategies, and every race through the finale — at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there, and let's cash some tickets.

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