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Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — August 11, 2026

August 11, 20268 racesAll Fairmount Park picks

This card ran on August 11, 2026.

Best bets at Fairmount Park, August 11, 2026

Race 14Mom's MissileML 3/22:30 PM EDT

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It's a hot one at Fairmount Park today — 93°F under a partly cloudy sky, and the dirt strip is going to be all business from the jump. Eight races are on the card, spanning everything from a Maiden Special Weight sprint to a routing Claiming mile-plus closer, and TrackWiz analysis finds legitimate angles in nearly every single race.

Heat like this can be a real factor late in the card. Horses that press hard early on a sun-baked track sometimes flatten out in the stretch, so pace scenario and stamina become even more important as the afternoon wears on. Keep that in mind when you're structuring your tickets.

The marquee spot today is Race 6, a 6-furlong Starter Allowance that has our highest-rated pick of the entire card. But honestly, the value story today starts much earlier — and the first three races are free for every TrackWiz reader.

Best Bets

Race 1

2:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint with several first-timers making debut reads tricky, but the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top tier separated from the rest of the field.

win4Mom's MissileML 3/2

Mom's Missile opens as the morning-line favorite at 3/2 and backs it up with the field's top TrackWiz rating of 59.17 — a meaningful gap over the next-best horses. Trainer Larry Rivelli sends her out with E.T. Baird aboard, a competent pairing for a race like this. In a maiden field with several horses showing no prior speed figures, that 52 avg speed number gives her a measurable baseline edge heading into the 5-furlong sprint.

place2Sho DominicML 9/2

Sho Dominic checks in with a 54.17 rating — second-best in the field — and shows an avg speed of 53, which is the highest among any horse in this race with prior recorded figures. Trainer Shane Childers has two horses in this race, and Sho Dominic is clearly the barn's top play at 9/2 on the morning line with Angel Ortega Stanley taking the call.

show3Gail's GloryML 5/1

Gail's Glory (5/1 morning line) ties for third on the TrackWiz ratings at 53.33 and shows an avg speed of 52 under trainer Michael L. Reavis. She's worth including in exacta and trifecta tickets as a grounded third option in what figures to be a competitive early pace battle in this short 5-furlong dash.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

2:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't the top-rated horse in this one-mile claimer — there's genuine value hiding in the middle of the program, and the pace scenario could sort things out in favor of a closer.

win5RegimentalML 6/1

Regimental is the play here despite going off at 6/1 on the morning line — the TrackWiz model has him rated 82.71, which is the best mark in the entire field and a substantial edge over the public choice Patch O'Brien. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez has him at 7% career wins, which is modest, but the rating separation is hard to dismiss. With an avg speed of 52, he's shown the ability to sustain pace over a mile on this surface.

place3Electric ChargeML 10/1

Electric Charge is a sneaky interesting piece of this race — rated 75.36 by TrackWiz, that's actually the second-best number in the field despite going off at 10/1 on the morning line. Trainer Maximino Quinonez sends him out with Frank Reyes, and with a career win rate of 8%, Electric Charge has shown he can get there. At double-digits, he's the best value in the place slot.

show7Wicked SkyML 10/1

Wicked Sky at 10/1 brings a 69.8 TrackWiz rating and matches the top horses on avg speed at 52 under trainer John C. Wainwright. He's the kind of horse who can loom in the late stages of a mile, and at those odds, he rounds out a solid exacta or trifecta combination nicely.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Our three free races kick things off nicely. In Race 1, Mom's Missile opens the card in the Maiden Special Weight at the morning-line favorite price of 3/2 — a solid TrackWiz rating of 59.17 suggests she's the most likely winner in a field that's tough to fully trust. Race 2 is where casual bettors should pay close attention: Regimental draws a 6/1 morning line in a one-mile Claimer, but our rating of 82.71 says this horse is significantly underlaid at that number — the kind of gap between public price and our figure that screams value. Round out the free card with Race 3, where Warrior of Gold (2/1 ML, 88.54 rating) is the highest-rated of the trio and looks like a strong win contender going 6 furlongs on the dirt.

A thread connecting these early races: on a hot day at a track like Fairmount, the front-runners on the short dirt sprint distances tend to hold up well when the pace isn't contested. If Warrior of Gold and Mom's Missile can get position without getting into a speed duel, both figures to be dangerous late. Regimental stretching out to a mile is the interesting pivot — route distance on a warm afternoon could play right into his hands if he's the freshest horse in deep stretch.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

3:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses separate themselves significantly from the rest of this six-furlong claiming field, setting up what could be a head-to-head battle between the top two in the stretch.

win5Warrior of GoldML 2/1

Warrior of Gold is our top play at 2/1, backed by the field's best TrackWiz rating of 88.54. He's coming in with an 18% career win rate and an avg speed figure of 54 — matching only Mobster and Manny's Kat at that level. Trainer James M. Watkins hands the reins to Johanis Aranguren, and this horse's combination of raw speed and high rating gives him the best profile in the field heading into the 6-furlong distance.

place3MobsterML EVN

Mobster opens as the morning-line even-money choice and carries the second-best TrackWiz rating at 80.78. His 21% career win rate is among the best in the field, and his avg speed of 55 is the highest of any horse in the race — if he can dictate or sit just off the pace early, Travis Wales could have him in a winning position at the top of the stretch.

show7Manny's KatML 5/1

Manny's Kat at 5/1 brings a solid 63.88 TrackWiz rating and a 13% career win rate with an avg speed of 54. Trainer Mark W. Anderson has a live one here at a fair price, and in a race where the top two could battle each other into submission, Manny's Kat is the logical beneficiary to pick up the pieces in the exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

3:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

This one-mile claimer features a clear TrackWiz standout going off at a fair price, while the public money on a 2/1 shot looks misplaced based on the ratings.

win5Averyz DayML 7/2

Averyz Day tops the TrackWiz ratings in Race 4 at an impressive 86.35 — more than 23 points clear of the next horse — and opens at 7/2 on the morning line, which represents genuine value given the margin. Victor Lara gets the call for trainer Harry E. Lynch, and with an avg speed of 54, Averyz Day has the highest raw speed figure in the field. The 6% career win rate is low, but the rating dominance here is too big to ignore.

place1Don't Tell KimML 5/2

Don't Tell Kim is worth backing in the place spot — a 25% career win rate is the highest of anyone in this field, and her 62.19 TrackWiz rating puts her solidly in second. Trainer Ben Delong sends her out from the rail with Luis H. Colon aboard, and at 5/2 on the morning line, she's the logical horse to fill out exacta combinations behind Averyz Day.

show4Army HeroML 2/1

Army Hero (2/1 ML) carries a 57.12 TrackWiz rating and draws the attention of the public despite a modest 5% career win rate. Victor Santiago navigates from post four in the one-mile trip, and while the rating doesn't quite match his morning-line price, he's consistent enough on the speed figures — avg 51 — to factor into show tickets and trifecta exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

4:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite and the top-rated horse diverge in this six-furlong claimer, opening the door for real overlay value in what could be a pace-honest field.

win6Splendor GlowML 4/1

Splendor Glow is the standout here — an 85.62 TrackWiz rating paired with a remarkable 28% career win rate makes her the most accomplished and highest-rated horse in the field. Trainer James M. Watkins saddles her up for Johanis Aranguren, and at 4/1 on the morning line, she's at a price that doesn't fully reflect her credentials. Her avg speed of 53 is solid for six furlongs at this level.

place4Governing PartyML EVN

Governing Party opens as the even-money morning-line choice and rates second in the field at 79.88, which is a strong mark. With an avg speed of 54 and Ademar Santos aboard, Governing Party figures to be on or near the lead early in this sprint. He's a reasonable favorite and the safest place bet on the board, though Splendor Glow's edge is hard to overlook.

show7R U JokingML 7/2

R U Joking at 7/2 on the morning line has a 70.6 TrackWiz rating and the highest avg speed figure among the second tier at 54, matching Governing Party. Frank Reyes takes the mount for trainer Maximino Quinonez, and a 10% career win rate at this level suggests some consistency. He's a solid show play and worth pairing in exacta boxes at a useful price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

4:35 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

One horse dramatically separates itself from the field in this six-furlong starter allowance, but a legitimate value play lurks at double-digit odds in the place slot.

win5Two HeartedML 3/2

Two Hearted is the most dominant single-race profile on today's card — an 89.27 TrackWiz rating, an 18% career win rate, and the morning-line favoritism at 3/2 all point the same direction. Julio E. Felix rides for trainer Gene J. Sandrowski, and while the avg speed of 53 isn't the fastest in the field, the overall profile is clearly superior. At 3/2, there's not much value, but this is a near-automatic play for win tickets.

place4Sharp AttackML 10/1

Sharp Attack is the place value play of the night at 10/1 on the morning line. He carries a 70.79 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and the highest avg speed figure in the race at 55. A 21% career win rate under trainer Hugo Rodriguez with Luis H. Colon aboard makes this an overlay, and in a race where Two Hearted could clear the field, Sharp Attack has the profile to slot comfortably in second.

show1Fast N HappyML 4/1

Fast N Happy opens at 4/1 and brings a 61.91 TrackWiz rating alongside a 21% career win rate — tied for the best in the field on that metric. Trainer Dennis Hornbostel runs two horses in this race and Fast N Happy is the clear top choice from the barn. An avg speed of 53 and Ademar Santos in the irons gives him a fighting chance to fill out trifectas behind the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

5:00 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An extraordinary career win percentage stands out like a neon sign in this six-furlong starter optional claimer — the numbers tell a very clear story at the top of the field.

win6Honor PointML 2/1

Honor Point is a legitimately special profile in this spot. A 71% career win rate is almost unheard of at this level and is by far the highest number on today's card across any race. His 88.54 TrackWiz rating matches for the best mark in the race, and Alexander Bendezu takes the mount for trainer Eduardo Rodriguez. He opens at 2/1, which is fair given everything pointing in his direction — he's a strong win selection.

place5American WarriorML 6/1

American Warrior checks in at 68.77 on the TrackWiz ratings and goes off at 6/1 on the morning line — solid overlay territory. With a 20% career win rate and Ademar Santos aboard for trainer James M. Watkins, he's shown the ability to compete at this level. An avg speed of 54 keeps him in the conversation if Honor Point faces any early pressure in the sprint.

show9CorteseML 6/1

Cortese (6/1 ML) has a 65.58 TrackWiz rating and a strong 30% career win rate — third-best in the field on that metric. Emmanuel Giles rides for trainer Jose G. Rodriguez, and with an avg speed of 55, Cortese has the raw speed to factor into the stretch run. He's a natural fit for trifecta tickets and exotics at a price that offers some cushion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

5:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A bulky twelve-horse field goes a mile and seventy yards in the nightcap, with the top-rated horse lining up as a short price — but two horses at 8/1 offer compelling value in the exotics.

win10RoussetteML 9/5

Roussette opens at 9/5 and earns that favoritism with the field's top TrackWiz rating at 83.6 and a 20% career win rate. Luis H. Colon gets the call for trainer James M. Watkins — a barn that's shown up multiple times today with live horses. An avg speed of 52 over this longer route distance of a mile and seventy yards gives her a consistent base, and in a twelve-horse field, she's the clearest single to lean on.

place12Spanish DoubloonML 8/1

Spanish Doubloon at 8/1 on the morning line brings a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — tied for second-best in the field — and an avg speed of 54, which is the highest of any horse in this race. Brody Martinez rides for trainer Ralph Martinez in what looks like a live pairing over the longer route. At those odds, Spanish Doubloon is the best place-bet value in the nightcap.

show5VitaleML 8/1

Vitale also rates 79.79 on TrackWiz — exactly matching Spanish Doubloon for the second-best mark — and goes off at 8/1 as well. Trainer Pat Clay sends him out with Ademar Santos, and a 12% career win rate at a 52 avg speed shows some consistency over this style of race. With the top two picks so closely rated, Vitale is a natural third piece to any trifecta combination.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

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Today's best bets at a glance: Warrior of Gold in Race 3 is the top free play, Regimental in Race 2 is the value standout at 6/1, and Two Hearted in Race 6 carries the card's highest rating at 89.27. The heat is a factor, the pace scenarios are intriguing, and there's real money to be made across this eight-race card. Full analysis — including all five premium races, exotic structures, and pace projections — is available to TrackWiz subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there today.

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