Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — August 4, 2026
It's a clear, hot Tuesday at Fairmount Park — 85 degrees with the sun beating straight down on the strip. Eight races on a genuine all-dirt card, and the kind of mid-summer afternoon where speed figures earned on fast tracks mean exactly what they look like. No excuses today: the conditions are clean, the footing should be firm, and the horses that want to run will get every chance to show it.
The card opens with a Maiden Claiming sprint before working through a pair of route Claiming races, then graduates into a stretch of Allowance-level company — including three Allowance Optional Claiming spots and the day's marquee event, Race 6, a 1¼-mile Starter Allowance that puts stamina front and center. Eight races, eight opinions. Let's get into it.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A wide-open maiden claimer with zero career wins across the board, but TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear two-horse class advantage at the top — though the pace from a 12-horse field could scramble things in a hurry.
Free Choice (No. 11) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62 and posts an average speed figure of 53 — solid for this level. Trainer Ralph Martinez saddles the horse for jockey Brody Martinez, keeping it in the family barn, and that familiarity with the horse can matter in maidens. At 4/1 on the morning line, this is genuine value for the top-rated runner, not a short-priced chalk you have to swallow hard to back.
Major League (No. 8) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for a reason — an 83.25 TrackWiz rating and an average speed of 54 make this one of the faster horses in the field on paper. Trainer Mike Durham puts up Ademar Santos, a jockey who knows how to get horses to run their race. If Free Choice struggles to break cleanly from the outside, Major League has every tool to steal the win, let alone the place.
Incorporated (No. 3) at 10/1 is the value play in exotics here, packing a 71.59 rating and matching the top tier on average speed at 53. Trainer Omar Razvi sends Harold Joseph Ortega out from a manageable post, and in a chaotic 12-horse maiden field, a horse with this rating sitting at double-digit odds deserves exotic coverage — especially underneath in the trifecta.
Race 2
Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt
Verrazano First looks like a price play waiting to happen against a field of claiming horses where the morning-line favorite is nowhere near the top of the TrackWiz ratings — this one has upset written all over it.
Verrazano First (No. 4) owns the best TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.79 and has won 27% of career starts — the highest win rate among the primary contenders. Trainer Pat Clay sends Johanis Aranguren out at 8/1 on the morning line, which is simply too generous for a horse with this profile. The 1-mile-70-yard distance tests stamina and class, and this one's figures suggest it has both.
Mystic Power (No. 2) is the morning-line co-favorite at 7/2 with a 71.61 TrackWiz rating and a 12% career win clip. Trainer Jose G. Rodriguez puts Javier Tavares up, and the 7/2 price feels about right for a horse that profiles as a solid second or third in this field. At a route distance, Mystic Power's figures set up well for a place finish even if it can't quite keep up with Verrazano First's class edge.
Euclid Avenue (No. 5) matches Mystic Power on the morning line at 9/2 and sports an 18% career win rate — respectable for a claimer at this level. Trainer Hugo Rodriguez pairs with Ademar Santos, and at a mile-plus distance, horses with steady speed figures (52 average here) often find their groove late. Plug Euclid Avenue into your trifecta as the third piece — it's a fair price for a horse with a legitimate shot.
Race 3
Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
Moonrise Drive and License to Steal are separated by less than a point in TrackWiz ratings at the top, setting up a potential stretch duel in this 1-mile claimer — but the morning lines suggest the market hasn't fully caught up to the pace scenario.
Moonrise Drive (No. 4) holds the field's top TrackWiz rating at 84.90 and is priced at 9/2 — a fair price for a horse this well-rated. Trainer Cheryl Winebaugh sends Luis H. Colon, an experienced hand around the Fairmount oval, and the one-mile trip suits a horse whose figures suggest it builds into the stretch. With only an 8% career win rate, this one might need things to click — but the ratings say the talent is there.
License to Steal (No. 9) sits just a tick below Moonrise Drive at a 84.10 rating and is actually priced a full point shorter at 4/1 on the morning line. Frank Reyes picks up the mount for trainer Eduardo Rodriguez, and at 10% career wins, this horse has shown it can close out races. If Moonrise Drive gets all the attention up front, License to Steal has the pace profile to swoop in for at least the place.
Grandsonsam (No. 7) at 5/2 morning-line is the public's pick to win, but TrackWiz rates it third in the field at 74.08 — suggesting it's a touch short for the win but solid underneath. Trainer Mike Durham puts Ademar Santos up, and with only a 5% career win rate, this horse may be more finisher than winner. Use it confidently in the show spot and underneath in trifectas.
Our three free races set up nicely for a summer dirt card. Free Choice (4/1 morning line, Race 1) draws our eye in the maiden opener — an 85.62 TrackWiz rating suggests a horse that should be competitive at the price. In Race 2, Verrazano First catches our attention as a straight-up value play at 8/1 — that kind of morning line in a route Claiming race is exactly where overlays are born, and a 79.79 rating in a field that may not be deep makes this one worth a serious look. Moonrise Drive completes the free trio in Race 3, rated 84.90 and posted at 9/2 — solid class-adjusted figures around two turns on a surface playing fast today.
One angle worth noting across all three free races: with the heat and the hard dirt, early pace is going to be at a premium. Horses that can secure a comfortable position in the first quarter-mile without burning up too much energy tend to have a measurable edge at Fairmount on days like this. Keep an eye on post position and early speed in your handicapping.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line: it's a clean, fast-track Tuesday at Fairmount with horses to like at every level of the card. Free Choice, Verrazano First, and Moonside Drive headline the free selections — all three offer genuine value at their respective morning lines. For the full picture, including McMoney's pace scenario and our exotic ticket breakdowns for the back half, subscribers have everything they need. Good luck out there — bet smart, manage your tickets, and enjoy the card.