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Fair Meadows Picks & Predictions — July 17, 2026

July 17, 202612 racesAll Fair Meadows picks

This card ran on July 17, 2026.

Best bets at Fair Meadows, July 17, 2026

Race 12Flotation StationML 5/27:00 PM EDT

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Fair Meadows is open for business this Friday afternoon with a full 12-race card under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 86°F — ideal conditions for a fast, consistent dirt surface. No weather drama to worry about today; this is a card where horse quality and pace scenarios do the talking.

The card is a genuine mixed bag: you've got three thoroughbred-style dirt routes and sprints up front, then a deep stretch of Quarter Horse dashes dominating the second half — including a Stakes race at 870 yards that is the marquee event of the afternoon. Twelve races, plenty of action, and TrackWiz has you covered from Race 1 to the nightcap.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:00 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Flotation Station towers over this allowance field on the ratings, but the 5/2 morning line makes this a single-horse race that could compress exotic payouts — the real intrigue is who fills the bottom of the ticket.

win2Flotation StationML 5/2

Flotation Station carries the field's top TrackWiz rating at 87.81 — a full 18 points clear of the next rival — and backs it up with a 55 average speed figure that ties for the best in the field. Jockey Weston Hamilton gets the call for trainer Kevin Morgan Jr., and at 5/2 on the morning line this horse is rightly installed as the heavy favorite. Over 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, a horse with this kind of ratings separation doesn't come along every day — this is your foundation bet.

place5Big Country BoyML 6/1

Big Country Boy (No. 5) is an interesting underneath play at 6/1 on the morning line. His TrackWiz rating of 69.21 makes him the second-highest-rated horse in the field after the top pick, and trainer Tim Dixon hands the reins to Curtis Kimes. A 5% career win rate suggests he's more finisher than winner, which fits the place profile perfectly here.

show1KissofthenileML 6/1

Kissofthenile at 6/1 is worth a spot on the show ticket as a hedge in this spot. The 64.71 TrackWiz rating puts him in the middle of the pack, and Roman Cruz is a competent pilot in this company. With a career win rate of just 3%, he's not the type to steal the race outright, but sneaking into the money in a short field is well within reach.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:28 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Roman Eagle and Gospel Native set up a fascinating pace duel between the top two rated horses in this one-mile claiming affair — the horse that survives that early tussle likely controls the race.

win8Roman EagleML 5/2

Roman Eagle (No. 8) draws the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 and comes in at a reasonable 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Austin Gustafson puts Curtis Kimes in the irons, and with a 53 average speed figure over a mile, this horse has the engine to handle the distance. The key advantage here is the ratings separation — Roman Eagle and Gospel Native are clearly the class of this field, and post position 8 could set up a stalking trip that lets him uncoil late.

place6Gospel NativeML 3/1

Gospel Native (No. 6) is the legitimate threat to the top pick and brings a career win rate of just 5% — but that's offset by a 83.87 TrackWiz rating that screams class. Trained by Steve F. Williams with Angel Ortega Stanley up, this is a horse that competes hard even when it doesn't win. At 3/1, the place return should be solid if Roman Eagle handles the front.

show5NjustlikethatML 6/1

Njustlikethat (No. 5) rounds out a logical show selection at 6/1 on the morning line. Rated 77.33 by TrackWiz and sporting a 12% career win rate — the highest among the contenders not named Roman Eagle — this Steve F. Williams trainee (same barn as Gospel Native) clearly knows how to compete at this level. If the top two horses burn each other up on the front end, Njustlikethat is poised to close into the money.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

The first three races on today's card are unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and they set up nicely. Flotation Station opens the card in an Allowance sprint at 5½ furlongs, Roman Eagle takes center stage in the one-mile Claiming test in Race 2, and Mr Oklahoma gets his shot in a six-furlong Allowance in Race 3. All three drew the same 5/2 morning line, which tells you the morning line makers see competitive but beatable fields — exactly the kind of spot where a sharp read on pace and class can separate you from the crowd.

With the dirt playing true on a dry afternoon, early speed figures tend to hold up well at Fair Meadows in these conditions. Watch how the first few races play out — if front-runners are converting, that pace bias could ripple through the entire card and give you a significant edge in the Quarter Horse dashes later on.

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Race 3

7:56 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Mr Oklahoma looks like the standout in this six-furlong allowance, but West of Town has the highest average speed figure in the field and could make this more competitive than the morning line suggests.

win4Mr OklahomaML 5/2

Mr Oklahoma (No. 4) is the clear top selection with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by over 11 points — and a 17% career win rate that shows he actually converts when he belongs. Floyd Wethey Jr. takes the mount for trainer Scott E. Young, who also saddles Norway Beach in Race 1 today, so this is a barn that knows how to win at Fair Meadows. At 5/2, the morning line is fair for a horse this far ahead on ratings.

place8West of TownML 4/1

West of Town (No. 8) is the most intriguing underneath play in this race. His 55 average speed figure is the best in the entire field — topping even Mr Oklahoma — and trainer Mark C. Lee puts Roman Cruz in the saddle. The 76.88 TrackWiz rating and a 15% career win rate suggest this horse is capable of winning, and at 4/1 he might be the best value on the ticket.

show3K Q SpiritML 4/1

K Q Spirit (No. 3) at 4/1 on the morning line offers solid show value with a 55.62 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate. David Cabrera rides for trainer Juan Padilla, and the 54 average speed figure is right in line with the top of the field. In a race with a dominant single, horses like K Q Spirit often sneak through for third money.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

8:21 PM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

This 300-yard quarter-horse sprint is a blink-and-you'll-miss-it affair — Drinking Jerry heads the TrackWiz ratings but faces a legitimate challenge from Zazas Coconut Cartel, and post position could matter more than anything else at this distance.

win6Drinking JerryML 5/1

Drinking Jerry (No. 6) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 84.17 and carries a 20% career win rate, which is right in line with the contenders at this level. Erik N. Esqueda gets the mount for trainer Randy Chavez, and at 5/1 on the morning line there's genuine value here relative to the ratings edge. In a 300-yard sprint where fractions of a second separate the field, a horse with this kind of analytical edge deserves top billing.

place4Zazas Coconut CartelML 5/2

Zazas Coconut Cartel (No. 4) is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 and comes in with an 80.48 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — one of the stronger winning percentages in this field. Gonzalo Gutierrez handles the riding duties for trainer Kasey Willis. The rating gap between this horse and the win pick is relatively narrow, and if Drinking Jerry breaks flat, Zazas Coconut Cartel has the profile to grab the win outright.

show1BricktownML 3/1

Bricktown (No. 1) rounds out the show spot with a 75.34 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate, mirroring the top pick's win percentage. Trainer Dee Keener puts Mario Delgado aboard, and the 3/1 morning line makes this horse one of the shorter-priced show options in a field where the pricing is somewhat compressed. At this sprint distance, rail post position can be an asset, giving Bricktown a clean path from the jump.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

8:46 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint at 300 yards where no horse in the field has ever won — pure projection and analytics rule the day, and Shez the Painter stands alone at the top of the TrackWiz ratings.

win10Shez the PainterML 3/1

Shez the Painter (No. 10) is as close to a standout as you'll find in a maiden race, posting an 87.08 TrackWiz rating in a field where the next-best rival checks in at 65.13. Trainer Matt Whitekiller puts Cody Rodger Smith aboard, and at 3/1 on the morning line, the market agrees this horse belongs at the top. In a race with zero proven winners, leaning on the ratings leader is the most defensible play.

place4Smithworks SpecialML 7/2

Smithworks Special (No. 4) is our place selection at 7/2, backed by a 65.13 TrackWiz rating that puts him clearly second in this field. Gonzalo Gutierrez rides for trainer Matt Whitekiller — same barn as the top pick — so the connections are obviously confident about their two entries. A same-barn exacta is very much in play here.

show3Jh SmithtosaML 12/1

Jh Smithtosa (No. 3) is an interesting show ticket at 12/1 on the morning line — that's a big price for a horse with the third-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 51.88. Cristian R. Esqueda rides for trainer Stacy Charette-Hill, who also saddles Scoutsalilreckless in this race. If the two Whitekiller entries run into each other early, Jh Smithtosa could sneak into the money at a juicy price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

9:14 PM EDT

Stakes · 870 yd · Dirt

The stakes race at 870 yards is the marquee event of the evening — Mister Lights Out heads the field on ratings, but Chicks Cartell's eye-popping 37% career win rate keeps this from being a forgone conclusion.

win6Mister Lights OutML 3/1

Mister Lights Out (No. 6) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and backs it up with a 30% career win rate — one of the best in a stakes-caliber field. Curtis Kimes is one of the more accomplished riders on this card, and trainer Clinton Crawford clearly knows how to place a horse in the right spot. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is the most confident top selection of the evening for TrackWiz.

place3Chicks CartellML 7/2

Chicks Cartell (No. 3) is the horse that keeps us honest here — a 37% career win rate is elite at any level, and trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz gets Gonzalo Gutierrez in the irons. The 76.08 TrackWiz rating puts this horse solidly in the contention zone, and at 7/2 the place return offers real value. Don't leave this one off your tickets.

show7O Donovan RossaML 5/2

O Donovan Rossa (No. 7) slots into the show spot at 5/2 on the morning line, which is actually the second-shortest price in the field — the market respects this horse. Trainer Dee Keener puts Roman Cruz aboard, and the 75.58 TrackWiz rating and 28% career win rate are both legitimate. At this distance and class level, an experienced winner like O Donovan Rossa rarely runs completely off the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

9:39 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

Ten maidens going nowhere fast at 350 yards — this is a wide-open field of non-winners, and the TrackWiz ratings spread is significant enough to narrow things down to a clear top trio.

win5Wrs Cyber SamML 7/2

Wrs Cyber Sam (No. 5) leads the field on TrackWiz ratings at 69.35 in a field where most rivals check in well below 60. Roman Cruz gets the mount for trainer Samuel E. Valdivia, and at 7/2 on the morning line the odds are fair for the ratings leader. In maiden races at short distances like this, pace out of the gate is everything — and this horse's analytical edge gives reason to trust the selection.

place9Candys PursuitML 6/1

Candys Pursuit (No. 9) is a strong underneath play at 6/1, rated 66.21 by TrackWiz — close enough to the top pick to be a serious threat. Trainer Stacy Charette-Hill sends out Cristian R. Esqueda, a rider who appears multiple times on this card, suggesting he's one of the busier jockeys in action today. The 6/1 morning line offers genuine value relative to the rating.

show8Cousin Ruby SueML 4/1

Cousin Ruby Sue (No. 8) completes the show spot at 4/1, rated 55.00 by TrackWiz, and comes in with Gonzalo Gutierrez aboard for trainer Edward L. Webb. The ratings gap between this horse and the top two picks is notable, but in a field of ten first-time-to-the-winner's-circle types, running into the money is a realistic outcome. The 4/1 price makes the show ticket worthwhile.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

10:04 PM EDT

Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

Jlc Simon Says Run is a dominant presence in this 350-yard claiming sprint — the 87.81 TrackWiz rating and 36% career win rate make this one of the most lopsided matchups on the entire card.

win6Jlc Simon Says RunML 5/2

Jlc Simon Says Run (No. 6) is simply in a different class here — the 87.81 TrackWiz rating is more than 25 points ahead of the next-best horse, and that 36% career win rate is extraordinary for any level of claiming competition. Trainer Luz Chavira hands the reins to Cordarelton J. Benn, and at 5/2 on the morning line this horse is rightly a heavy single. If you're building a multi-race parlay, this is the race to anchor it.

place2Fortyacres and AmuleML 6/1

Fortyacres and Amule (No. 2) is the place selection at 6/1, bringing a 62.54 TrackWiz rating and an 11% career win rate to this spot. Erik N. Esqueda takes the mount for trainer Samuel Mendoza, and while there's a large gap to the top pick, this horse looks like one of the cleaner second-place profiles in the field. At 6/1 the place payout should be decent.

show8Pine ValleyML 4/1

Pine Valley (No. 8) rounds out the ticket with a 61.83 TrackWiz rating — essentially identical to the place pick — and a 16% career win rate that suggests she competes regularly. Trainer Marla Dayana Vargas fields Cristian R. Esqueda, and at 4/1 the show price is workable. When the top pick is this dominant, the battle for second and third money is where the real handicapping work pays off.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 9

10:29 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

Ct Jess Corona enters this maiden claiming sprint at 300 yards with a significant ratings edge — but with ten first-time-to-the-winner's-circle contenders, chaos is always a factor at this distance.

win2Ct Jess CoronaML 7/2

Ct Jess Corona (No. 2) tops the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating, nearly 18 points clear of the next rival, and trainer Clinton Crawford enlists Mario Delgado for the mount. The 7/2 morning line is on the shorter side for this type of maiden field, but the ratings justify the confidence. Crawford also has Ebw Pecos entered in this race, giving the barn two shots — and when a top trainer doubles up, the better-rated entry usually shows up.

place3Lookee At MeML 3/1

Lookee At Me (No. 3) is our place selection at 3/1, rated 68.58 by TrackWiz — second-best in the field by a comfortable margin. Trainer Stacy Charette-Hill, who has multiple horses on this card, puts Cristian R. Esqueda in the irons. The 3/1 morning line is actually shorter than the win pick's 7/2, suggesting the market sees this as nearly a coin flip between the two — which makes the exacta box look attractive.

show8Tahiti CowgirlML 5/1

Tahiti Cowgirl (No. 8) gets the show nod at 5/1 with a 58.09 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field and a clear step above the majority of the maiden lineup. Trainer Guillermo Valdivia saddles Daniel Antonio Torres, and the 5/1 price offers reasonable value for a horse that figures to have a legitimate shot at the minor awards. In a 300-yard sprint where anything can happen at the break, a well-rated closer type like this can find daylight.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 10

10:54 PM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

Race 10 is a bunched allowance sprint at 300 yards where the top three TrackWiz-rated horses are separated by just 2.4 points — this is as tight as a race card gets, and the outcome could come down to the break alone.

win1Sheza GoldiggerML 3/1

Sheza Goldigger (No. 1) takes the win spot with the field's top TrackWiz rating of 86.56, but only by a whisker over Azoomin Cowboy and Ha Yep. Jose Sosa gets the mount for trainer Buddy Leon Clay, and while the 3/1 morning line makes this one of the shorter prices on the card, the career win rate of 7% is a bit of a concern — this horse has been competitive but not dominant historically. That said, the analytical edge is real, and rail post position in a 300-yard dash is no disadvantage.

place10Azoomin CowboyML 7/2

Azoomin Cowboy (No. 10) is essentially a co-favorite with the top pick at 7/2 on the morning line — an 85.31 TrackWiz rating and 11% career win rate from the outside post makes this a legitimate win threat in its own right. Trainer Jesus Munoz Escobedo puts Erik N. Esqueda up, and this could easily be the horse that wins outright. When the top three horses are this close on ratings, the place bet on the second-best makes tremendous sense.

show2Ha YepML 5/1

Ha Yep (No. 2) completes an extremely competitive top three with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate — actually the best winning percentage among the top trio. Mario Delgado rides for trainer Victor Ibarra, and at 5/1 on the morning line this is where the value lives in this race. A horse rated within 2.4 points of the win pick, with the strongest historical win rate of the three, deserves show consideration at a price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 11

11:19 PM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

Parajax has the top rating and shortest morning line in this ten-horse allowance sprint, but Uncle Travvy's 25% career win rate and solid 73.34 rating make this a two-horse race worth dissecting carefully.

win1ParajaxML 5/2

Parajax (No. 1) enters as the TrackWiz top pick with an 87.81 rating — the maximum on our scale — and pairs that with an 18% career win rate that shows this horse converts regularly at the allowance level. Cody Rodger Smith, one of the more active riders on this entire Fair Meadows card, takes the mount for trainer Samuel E. Valdivia. At 5/2 on the morning line, Parajax is rightly favored and serves as the cornerstone of all exotic wagers in Race 11.

place2Uncle TravvyML 5/1

Uncle Travvy (No. 2) is the most compelling underneath selection with a 73.34 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — the highest winning percentage in the entire field. Roman Cruz rides for trainer Victor Ibarra, and the 5/1 morning line feels generous for a horse with this kind of conversion history. Adjacent post positions for the top two picks could set up a photo finish between them.

show6B a FlirtML 8/1

B a Flirt (No. 6) is a sneaky show play at 8/1 with a 68.96 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate — both respectable for this allowance company. Jonathan Dominguez gets the mount for trainer Jose A. Palma Jr., and the 8/1 price offers overlay value for a horse rated clearly ahead of the majority of this field. If the top two are battling it out, B a Flirt could sneak through for the show money at a price that would make the ticket worth cashing.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 12

11:44 PM EDT

Maiden · 330 yd · Dirt

They Call Me Larry is the lone standout in a ten-horse maiden sprint at 330 yards — with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating in a field where the next-best checks in at 70.34, this is one of the most lopsided maiden races on the card.

win6They Call Me LarryML 3/1

They Call Me Larry (No. 6) is a difficult horse to oppose here — the 87.08 TrackWiz rating towers over this field, and trainer Jorge L. Gonzalez puts Oscar Jaquez in the irons for what looks like a live chance. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's value relative to how dominant the ratings edge is — in most maiden fields, a horse this far ahead on analytics would be at shorter odds. This is the kind of single that anchors your late-race exotics.

place1Skyline MistressML 7/2

Skyline Mistress (No. 1) is the clear second choice at 7/2 on the morning line, rated 70.34 by TrackWiz — a 17-point gap to the top pick, but light years ahead of the rest of the field. Roman Cruz rides for trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz, who earlier in the card co-saddles horses in the stakes race. The rail post in a 330-yard sprint is workable, and a horse with this kind of second-best profile in a maiden race routinely gets the place money.

show10Southard KissesML 8/1

Southard Kisses (No. 10) closes out the show spot at 8/1 on the morning line — a price that overstates the risk for a horse rated 57.29 by TrackWiz, third-best in this field. Trainer Stacy Charette-Hill, who appears multiple times throughout this card, sends out Cody Rodger Smith, one of the busiest riders in action today. Outside post positions can be a concern at short distances, but with such a thin field of legitimate contenders, Southard Kisses has a realistic shot at sneaking into the money.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Fair Meadows is setting up for a fun Friday afternoon — clean weather, fast dirt, and a 12-race card with something for every kind of bettor. Start with our free picks on Flotation Station, Roman Eagle, and Mr Oklahoma to get your bearings, then let TrackWiz's full premium analysis guide you through the Stakes showdown and the Quarter Horse dash sequence that closes the card. Full subscribers get every angle — pace projections, exotic tickets, and the longshot plays worth taking a shot on. Upgrade at /pricing and make today count.

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