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Fair Meadows Picks & Predictions — July 11, 2026

July 11, 202610 racesAll Fair Meadows picks

This card ran on July 11, 2026.

Best bets at Fair Meadows, July 11, 2026

Race 12Mystic GraceML 7/27:00 PM EDT

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It's a warm Saturday afternoon at Fair Meadows — 87°F under partly cloudy skies — and the Tulsa oval is serving up a 10-race card that blends traditional thoroughbred dirt racing with a healthy dose of quarter-horse action. Conditions look favorable all day, and a fast, dry surface should reward horses that can establish position early.

The card opens with three claiming sprints at six furlongs and change before shifting gears into the short-distance quarter-horse races that Fair Meadows does so well. Distances get as brief as 250 yards and as long as a full mile, so there's something here for every handicapping style — whether you're a pace analyst or a pure speed-figure player.

TrackWiz has analysis on all 10 races today. The first three are free for every reader, and our full premium breakdown covers the back half of the card where the quarter-horse showdowns heat up.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite is an overbet commodity here, creating a prime overlay opportunity for the top TrackWiz-rated horse in this 6.5-furlong dirt claimer.

win2Mystic GraceML 7/2

Mystic Grace carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 — a clear separation from the rest of the field — and backs it up with a 28% career win rate that is more than double any other horse in this race. That kind of win percentage in a claiming field screams class, and jockey Emanuel Castillo Zabala gets the call. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is a horse whose numbers suggest she should be even shorter — making her a legit best bet.

place5Cashmere BabyML 7/5

Cashmere Baby opens as the 7/5 favorite, and while the rating of 66.23 doesn't match Mystic Grace's ceiling, trainer Tim Dixon puts her in a spot where she has a clear pace advantage with an average speed figure of 51. Favorites at this level hit the board at a high clip, and even if she can't match the top horse's class, a place check is a realistic outcome. The value play here is keying her underneath rather than on top.

show1Billie BabyML 6/1

Billie Baby at 6/1 is worth a look for exotics with a TrackWiz rating of 62.25 that puts her solidly in the third tier of this field. Jockey Leandro D. Goncalves is an active rider on this card, and a horse who rates this clearly as the third-best option in a five-horse field has a decent shot to fill out a show spot. Toss her in your trifecta at a reasonable price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:28 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A legitimate top-three battle shapes up between three horses within a tight rating cluster, while the rest of this field is simply along for the ride.

win3Beverly DinerML 2/1

Beverly Diner tops our TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and sports the best average speed figure in the field at 53 — meaningful separation from a field where most horses are clustered at 50-52. Trainer Federico Villafranco saddles Cordarelton J. Benn here, and a 9% career win rate in claiming company suggests this horse competes consistently against this level. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price is fair and the credentials back it up.

place4Moon CraterML 4/1

Moon Crater rates second in our model at 76.94 and comes in at a juicy 4/1 morning line — this is the value play in the race. Lindsey Hebert gets the mount for trainer Steve F. Williams, who also trains Gospel Lois in this field, suggesting Williams has solid barn form today. A closer profile at 6.5 furlongs on dirt could see Moon Crater sweeping up late if the pace gets hot up front.

show2Girls Knicks NowML 9/5

Girls Knicks Now at 9/5 is overbet relative to her position in our ratings at 75.41 — third-best in the field but being sent off as if she's the class of the race. That said, she rates ahead of the back half of the field comfortably, and Leandro D. Goncalves is one of the busiest jockeys on the Fair Meadows card today. She's a safe show play but offers minimal value on top.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our three free races today are all dirt sprints on the front end of the card, and they share a common thread: early pace is going to matter. On a dry, fast Fair Meadows strip in summer heat, horses that can break clean and settle into good position tend to hold their advantage to the wire. That makes Mystic Grace (Race 1, 7/2 morning line) and Beverly Diner (Race 2, 2/1) particularly interesting — both profile as forwardly placed runners with TrackWiz ratings in the mid-to-upper 80s.

Race 3 is where we find our best value angle in the free set. Windtapper Win opens at 5/1, a bigger number than her TrackWiz rating of 84.17 might suggest deserves. In a six-furlong claiming sprint, that kind of overlay is worth a serious look. Don't sleep on her just because she's not the chalk.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:56 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Windtapper Win cuts against the morning line grain with a dominant TrackWiz rating in a wide-open seven-horse claimer at six furlongs.

win4Windtapper WinML 5/1

Windtapper Win is our top-rated horse in Race 3 at 84.17, a number that stands well above the field in a race where the second-best horse checks in at 71.21. What's especially interesting is the best average speed figure in the field at 54, which pairs well with Curtis Kimes aboard for Tim Dixon's barn. Going off at 5/1 on the morning line despite leading our model suggests the public is underestimating this one — that's the kind of overlay we look for.

place6Vicente's ShadowML 5/2

Vicente's Shadow rates second in the field at 71.21 and comes in as the 5/2 morning line second choice — a fair price for a horse with an 11% career win rate who fits the profile of a consistent dirt sprinter. Jockey Belen Quinonez handles the mount for Satchell Stevens, and the six-furlong distance is right in the wheelhouse for a horse of this style. A place finish feels like the floor here.

show1Risky With WhiskeyML 3/1

Risky With Whiskey is the most interesting third horse in the race — a 16% career win rate is the highest in the field, and at 3/1 there's legitimate upside beyond just the show spot. Erik McNeil rides for April Gustafson, and with a TrackWiz rating of 65.12 and a 53 average speed figure, this horse could be a dangerous fit if the pace scenario sets up favorably. Toss her in your trifectas as a live contender.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

8:24 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Texas Holdem enters this Starter Optional Claiming mile as a class standout backed by the top speed figures and a dominant TrackWiz rating, but 'That's Something' makes the pace scenario worth watching.

win4Texas HoldemML 2/1

Texas Holdem is the most complete package in this field — a 88.54 TrackWiz rating leads all comers, and his average speed figure of 55 is several lengths clear of every other horse in the race. Trainer Tim Dixon and jockey Curtis Kimes are a recurring combo on this card, which is a solid sign of barn confidence, and a 16% career win rate is respectable at this class level. At 2/1 morning line, this is one of the most justified favorites on the card today.

place2That's SomethingML 8/5

That's Something opens as the 8/5 second choice and rates 65.71 in our model — a credible second-tier horse with a 22% career win rate that leads this field. Emanuel Castillo Zabala handles the mount for Steve F. Williams, who has horses scattered throughout today's card and appears to be in solid current form. The mile distance on dirt should suit a horse with this kind of career consistency, and she's a logical place bet to back up the top pick.

show6Storms LastML 3/1

Storms Last at 3/1 rounds out our show recommendation with a 60.15 rating and 12% career win rate — solid middle-of-the-field credentials in a race where the back half drops off sharply. Lindsey Hebert rides for Williams again, giving that barn two bullets in the race, and at 3/1 there's enough value to use Storms Last in trifecta coverage. She's not a horse to single, but she fits the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

8:49 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

The switch to 300-yard quarter horse racing begins here, and this maiden claimer is headlined by a sharp top two that are well-separated from the rest of the field.

win4Dtl Ramblin ManML 7/5

Dtl Ramblin Man heads our ratings at 89.42 — the highest mark of any horse in this race — and despite being sent off as the 7/5 morning line favorite, the number suggests the market has this right. Jonathan Dominguez, one of the more prominent quarter horse jockeys on this card, gets the call for trainer Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez. This is a maiden field where the class standout often just wires the field, and Dtl Ramblin Man fits that profile cleanly.

place3Cuz Sooner MagicML 3/1

Cuz Sooner Magic is a strong second in our model at 81.75 and comes in at 3/1 — a fair price for a horse that could legitimately push the favorite in this sprint. Mario Delgado gets the mount for Jesus Ruben Ruiz, and in a 300-yard dash where fractions of a second separate the contenders, a horse with this kind of preparation rating has every chance to hit the board. She's the most logical backup in your exacta.

show1Zoeys Louie VML 5/2

Zoeys Louie V at 5/2 is priced like a co-favorite but rates third in our model at 61.91 — a meaningful gap below the top two. Cody Rodger Smith is an active quarter horse rider on this card today, and trainer Matt Whitekiller's presence at this price suggests there's stable confidence behind this entry. The show spot is a reasonable expectation, but the 5/2 price makes her a tough win bet given the competition above her.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

9:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A deep 300-yard claimer with legitimate pace compression at the top, featuring three horses with ratings in the high 70s to high 80s and a couple of intriguing win-percentage angles.

win3Isabela LightsML 5/2

Isabela Lights leads our model at 87.81 and goes off at 5/2 morning line — a price that makes sense given the quality of this field but still offers solid value versus her rating edge. Jonathan Dominguez aboard is one of the go-to quarter horse pilots at Fair Meadows, and an 11% career win rate in claiming company is right in line for this level. In a field this competitive, we'll take the top-rated horse with a quality rider and let the numbers do the talking.

place5Capo Sm ChicksML 3/1

Capo Sm Chicks is the most striking win-percentage angle in this field — a 33% career win rate is elite, and our 80.88 rating puts her firmly in the mix. Jaime Mata gets the call for trainer Samuel Mendoza, and at 3/1 on the morning line, this horse is priced to be competitive. The pace compression at the top of this race makes the exacta between our top two a prime target.

show2Tiptoeing TulipML 7/2

Tiptoeing Tulip rounds out the recommendation with a 78.08 rating and a 20% career win rate — both numbers that hold up well against this field. Cody Rodger Smith rides for Matt Whitekiller, a combo that also appears in Race 5, suggesting the barn is rolling. At 7/2, there's enough meat on the bone to use Tiptoeing Tulip broadly in your tri and exacta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

9:39 PM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

An intriguing nine-horse Allowance sprint at 300 yards where the morning line and TrackWiz ratings point in different directions, setting up a potential overlay situation.

win6Jc PerseusML 7/2

Jc Perseus leads our ratings at 86.35 and comes in at 7/2 on the morning line — a price that represents genuine value given the model separation. Cody Rodger Smith handles the mount for Samuel E. Valdivia, and a 20% career win rate gives this horse a strong baseline expectation of competing. The Allowance condition means the field is a step up in class from claimers, but Perseus's number suggests she belongs at the top of this race.

place3Looks Executive MrlML 4/1

Looks Executive Mrl rates second in the field at 81.44 with a 33% career win rate — one of the better win-rate figures in this entire day's card. Cristian R. Esqueda rides for Juan Carlos Morales-Cipriano, and at 4/1 morning line there's real value in the place slot. The combination of a high rating and a 33% lifetime win mark makes this horse a must-use in exotics.

show5Ae Forty FiveML 10/1

Ae Forty Five is the value play of the analysis at 10/1 morning line — our model rates the horse at 67.46, which is solidly in the middle tier of the field, and a 25% career win rate suggests competitive ability that the odds don't fully reflect. Jonathan Dominguez rides for Chavez-Gutierrez, the same trainer-jockey alignment that appears for the Race 5 win pick. At double-digit odds, a show ticket on Ae Forty Five is a low-risk inclusion in your exotic plays.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 8

10:04 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

This maiden claiming sprint at 250 yards is a wide-open affair, but two horses emerge from the pack with ratings that meaningfully separate them from a ten-horse field of first-time or maiden runners.

win2Squeakies ToyML 5/1

Squeakies Toy leads the field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and goes off at 5/1 on the morning line — a price that stands out as a potential overlay in a maiden field where the public may be scattering money across multiple horses. Mario Delgado gets the mount for Luis Villafranco, and with all horses at 0% career win rate in this maiden field, the model differentiation becomes the primary handicapping tool. Squeakies Toy's rating edge is clear, and the short sprint distance at 250 yards rewards horses with natural early speed.

place3Reckless FolliesML 8/1

Reckless Follies comes in at 8/1 on the morning line but rates 70.43 in our model — second-best in the field and a clear separation from the horses below. Oscar Jaquez takes the mount for Jorge L. Gonzalez, and in a ten-horse maiden field at this distance, getting second-best numbers at 8/1 is exactly the kind of place-bet value that builds a profitable day at the windows. Don't overlook this one.

show6Mrblue WagonML 8/1

Mrblue Wagon rates 60.40 in our model and goes off at 8/1 — a name that quietly holds up as the third-best rated horse in this crowded field. Gonzalo Gutierrez rides for Escamilla-Gonzalez, and at a distance as short as 250 yards, the margin for error is razor-thin. Tossing Mrblue Wagon into your trifectas at 8/1 odds is a cost-effective way to cover the third spot in a wide-open maiden race.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 9

10:29 PM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse Allowance at 350 yards with a tight cluster of quality at the top, anchored by three horses rated 78 or better who figure to separate themselves from the field.

win3Tempting SeisML 5/1

Tempting Seis leads our model at 84.17 and goes off at 5/1 on the morning line — strong value for a horse that rates clearly at the top of a competitive Allowance field. Cody Rodger Smith takes the mount for Stacey L. Capps, and notably Capps also trains Runaway Scooter in this race, reflecting confidence in multiple entries from the same barn. A 10% career win rate in Allowance company is modest, but the model number is the primary signal here and it points clearly to this horse.

place8Sheza Violent EagleML 7/2

Sheza Violent Eagle rates 81.65 in our model and brings a 25% career win rate to the table — the strongest career winning percentage among the top three picks in this race. Ruben Castro rides for Jesus Ruben Ruiz, a trainer whose name appears across multiple races today suggesting active stable form. At 7/2 morning line, this horse is fairly priced and should be included in all your exacta combinations.

show4WhileubeengoneML 4/1

Whileubeengone is third in our model at 78.24 and opens at 4/1 — a horse with a 12% career win rate who fits the profile of a consistent Allowance-level runner. Cristian R. Esqueda gets the call for trainer Yareli Melendez, and at 350 yards the pace scenario can tighten quickly, giving a well-rated closer type like this a clean lane to pick up third. A logical show inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 10

10:54 PM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

Fair Meadows closes with a wide-open maiden 350-yard dash where the morning line is sharply divided, and one horse carries a dominant rating that dwarfs the field.

win5Eclipse 2024ML 2/1

Eclipse 2024 is the headline play of the card's finale — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that towers over every other runner in this maiden field, and the 2/1 morning line reflects the market's awareness. Cristian R. Esqueda gets the mount for Julio Rascon-Almanza, a trainer whose name we've seen on this card, and while all horses enter at 0% career win rate in this maiden event, the preparation and model signal for Eclipse 2024 are as strong as it gets at this level. This is the type of horse you build your late-card exotics around.

place6Small Townn HeroML 3/1

Small Townn Hero is second in our model at 70.21 and comes in at 3/1 — a legitimate secondary option in a race where the favorite's superiority is notable but 350-yard dashes can always surprise. Rolando Raudales takes the mount for Jose Hernandez-Martinez, and in a ten-horse field of maidens, there's inherent chaos that a well-rated second horse absorbs well. The place bet here makes sense as coverage behind the heavy favorite.

show9Uptown Bigg DaddyML 5/1

Uptown Bigg Daddy rates third in the field at 56.04 and goes off at 5/1 — a price that reflects his status as a mid-tier prospect in a maiden sprint but offers enough value to use broadly in trifectas. Jimmy Dean Brooks rides for Guillermo Valdivia, and while the rating gap between Uptown Bigg Daddy and the top two is meaningful, in a race with ten runners the show spot can come from unexpected places. At 5/1, this is a reasonable flyer to cap a full-card trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Today at Fair Meadows it all starts with Mystic Grace, Beverly Diner, and Windtapper Win in the free races — three solid plays on a fast, sun-baked strip. The real fireworks, though, are in the quarter-horse half of the card, where our TrackWiz ratings surface some genuine overlay opportunities. If you're playing the back end, don't go in without the full analysis. Good luck out there — let's cash some tickets.

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