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Fair Meadows Picks & Predictions — July 1, 2026

Wednesday, July 1, 202610 racesFair Meadows

It's a scorcher at Fair Meadows on July 1st — 91 degrees under clear skies with a fast dirt surface that should reward early speed all afternoon. Ten races are on tap, mixing Thoroughbred sprints and routes with a sharp slate of Quarter Horse dashes to close out the card. When it's this hot and this dry, the track tends to play true, and pace setters with enough gas in the tank can be very dangerous.

Today's card has a little of everything — maiden claimers and allowance company for the Thoroughbreds, plus 250- to 350-yard Quarter Horse bullets in the back half of the card. Whether you're looking for a singles ticket or building toward a late Pick 4, there's plenty to dig into. Three races are available free to all TrackWiz readers, with seven premium breakdowns waiting for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 4 fur · Dirt

A heavy favorite dominates the morning line in this maiden claimer, but the real question is whether anyone can mount a serious threat at four furlongs on the Fair Meadows dirt.

win4El ProtonicoML 2/5

El Protonico is the class of this field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 90 — nearly six points clear of the second-best horse in the race. His morning line of 2/5 reflects a consensus view that this race is his to lose, and his average speed figure of 52 gives him a measurable edge over most of the field. Trainer Mike Abney sends him out with Roman Cruz aboard, a pairing worth noting in a short sprint where breaks and early position are everything. At 4 furlongs, horses that can establish position early almost always dictate the outcome, and El Protonico profiles as exactly that type.

place6ChivatoML 3/1

Chivato draws the outside post at 6 and carries a rating of 84 — solid enough to keep this competitive against the favorite. His average speed figure of 53 is the best in the field, which suggests he has the raw ability to fire a big number even if he can't quite reel in El Protonico. Trainer James Victor Hale and jockey Emanuel Castillo Zabala are a familiar pairing at this meet, and the 3/1 morning line offers decent overlay potential for place money.

show5Grayrock LadyML 8/1

Grayrock Lady at 8/1 is worth a spot in the exotics as the third-best rating in the field at 57.6 — a meaningful gap above the bottom half of this six-horse field. She matches El Protonico's average speed figure of 52, so she's not without ability. Trainer Adam B. Sellers with Aram S. Martinez up gives her a grounded connection, and at her price she's worth including in any trifecta construction underneath the top two.

Race 2

11:28 PM EDT

Claiming · 4 fur · Dirt

A fascinating trainer-vs-trainer matchup shapes this four-furlong claimer, with Mark Buehrer saddling the top two horses on our board and a pair of double-digit career win percentages making the pace scenario genuinely interesting.

win4Twentyone N ChangeML 2/1

Twentyone N Change gets the top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and opens at 2/1 on the morning line — a fair price given the competition. He carries a 20% career win rate, which on a claiming circuit is a solid foundation of consistency. His average speed figure of 56 ties for the top mark in the field, and trainer Mark Buehrer, who also runs the place pick, clearly has his horses in form right now. Curtis Kimes is a reliable hand in short sprints, and this looks like a prime spot for the win.

place5Order of MeritML 5/2

Order of Merit is the stablemate to watch — also trained by Buehrer, he carries a 31% career win rate that stands out as the best in the field by a significant margin. That kind of consistency over a career suggests a horse that competes hard nearly every time out. His TrackWiz rating of 87.27 is just a tick below Twentyone N Change, and David Cabrera gets the call — he's aboard a horse that knows how to hit the board.

show1Mighty MessageML 7/2

Mighty Message at 7/2 rounds out our vertical with a respectable 57.62 rating and a 13% career win rate. His average speed figure of 54 is a bit behind the top pair but not embarrassingly so. Trainer Jody Pruitt sends him out with Leandro Goncalves, and in a five-horse field where the two Buehrer horses could take each other on early, Mighty Message could steal a piece if the pace sets up favorably for a closer.

Race 3

11:56 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Wide open maiden claimer at 5½ furlongs with a few horses showing intriguing upside, but the form is murky across the board and the pace scenario could shuffle the deck completely.

win4Spaced OutML 7/2

Spaced Out earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 81.12 and goes off at 7/2 on the morning line — which actually represents mild value given her edge on paper. The extra distance of 5½ furlongs compared to the early races on the card could suit a horse that builds into her runs, and trainer Spencer Don Leddy has given her to Emanuel Castillo Zabala, a jockey getting multiple calls today. Her average speed figure of 49 is modest, but in a field where several runners are first-time starters or lightly raced, modest can still be best.

place5Dottie CML 5/2

Dottie C opens as the morning-line favorite at 5/2 with a rating of 67.93, showing an average speed figure of 51 — the best in the field. Trainer April Gustafson has her pointed here with Curtis Kimes up, and Kimes is one of the more active jockeys at this meet. The 5/2 price doesn't offer much overlay, but her speed figure edge in a maiden field is real and she's a logical place contender.

show1Little Rag DollML 3/1

Little Rag Doll at 3/1 carries a 66.15 rating and an average speed figure of 52 — matching Dottie C's best number in the field. Trainer Robert J. Pearson sends her out with Ezequiel Lara, and at the 5½-furlong distance, the slightly added ground could benefit a horse with enough stamina to grind. She's a natural exotics inclusion and worth a show bet if you're looking to hedge the top two.

The opening three races give us a solid foundation for the day. El Protonico draws the eye immediately in Race 1 — a short, sharp 4-furlong maiden claimer where a heavy morning line of 2/5 tells you the connections like their spot. On a fast surface in this kind of heat, horses that break cleanly and establish position early have a real edge, and our TrackWiz rating of 90 makes El Protonico the top-rated horse on the entire card.

Race 2 brings Twentyone N Change at a more palatable 2/1, offering actual value in what looks like a contested pace scenario that could set up a closer. Then Race 3 stretches out to 5½ furlongs for a maiden claimer, where Spaced Out at 7/2 is our value play — a rating of 81 is lower than our Race 1 and 2 tops, but the longer trip and wider-open field make that morning line worth a second look. These three free races paint a clear picture of what the Fair Meadows dirt is doing today.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:24 AM EDT

Allowance · 4 fur · Dirt

Three horses rated within two points of each other at the top of an allowance sprint creates a genuine pace puzzle — this could come down to who draws the most favorable trip.

win4Land SpeedML 9/5

Land Speed sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 87.73 and opens as the 9/5 morning-line favorite, the tightest price in the field. His average speed figure of 55 is tied for the best among the top contenders, and trainer Clinton Crawford has him positioned well for this allowance spot. Curtis Kimes has been busy at this meet and should have the horse settled early in a four-furlong dash. The rating edge is slim over the bottom two picks, but in allowance company a hair of separation can be decisive.

place5KissofthenileML 2/1

Kissofthenile is the most intriguing horse in this race for a different reason — she carries the highest average speed figure in the field at 56, one tick better than Land Speed, yet opens at 2/1. Her TrackWiz rating of 85.72 is second only to the top pick, and Roman Cruz is an experienced hand for a four-furlong sprint. The 3% career win rate is a concern, but average speed figures suggest she's capable of running faster than she's won, making place money the smart play.

show6WhipML 4/1

Whip completes a tightly bunched top three, rated 85.62 — less than two full points behind Land Speed. Trainer James Victor Hale has a second starter on the card today in Dancing Devil, suggesting the barn is active and pointed up. Travis Cunningham gets the mount, and at 4/1 on the morning line, Whip offers the best value of the three top picks if the race sets up with a pace battle in front of him.

Race 5

12:52 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The mile distance filters this claiming field sharply, with Sharp Lorenzo standing out on raw ratings but Texas Holdem's top speed figure setting up a potential pace duel worth monitoring.

win3Sharp LorenzoML 7/5

Sharp Lorenzo is our top selection at 7/5, and the morning line reflects his clear class edge — a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 leads the field by more than 14 points. Trainer Mark Buehrer, who took both top spots in Race 2, saddles Sharp Lorenzo here with David Cabrera up, giving him arguably the sharpest trainer-jockey combo on today's card. At one mile, his 18% career win rate is meaningful — horses that win consistently at this level tend to do so by being reliable, not lucky. This is the race's most confident selection.

place6Texas HoldemML 2/1

Texas Holdem opens at 2/1 and carries a 75.13 rating alongside the top average speed figure in the field at 55 — one ahead of the win pick. Trainer Tim Dixon has him in with Curtis Kimes, a combo worth following at this meet. His 16% career win rate is solid for a claimer, and if he can establish position early and set a comfortable pace, he could give Sharp Lorenzo more trouble than the odds suggest.

show2Hamazing WisdomML 4/1

Hamazing Wisdom at 4/1 offers the best price among our three picks with a rating of 73.94 — third in the field and well clear of the bottom half. He matches the top two horses on average speed at 52, but carries only a 7% career win rate, suggesting he runs well more often than he wins. Trainer Juan Padilla sends him out with Travis Cunningham, and in a mile race where the pace could be honest, a closer profile like this one is worth including in exotics.

Race 6

1:20 AM EDT

Allowance · 4 fur · Dirt

Raspberry Martini looks like the class of a seven-horse allowance sprint, but a 25% career win rate and a competitive morning line make this a race with genuine secondary intrigue.

win3Raspberry MartiniML 2/1

Raspberry Martini tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and opens at 2/1 — the shortest price in the field not by accident. Her 25% career win rate is exceptional for this level and speaks to a consistent, competitive horse that knows how to seal the deal. Trainer Juan Padilla, who also runs Prairie Brat, clearly has the barn in good form, and Travis Cunningham handles the riding duties in a four-furlong dash. At 2/1 she's not a big overlay, but the profile supports betting her straight.

place5She's a Bond TooML 5/2

She's a Bond Too opens at 5/2 and carries a 20% career win rate alongside a 69.66 rating — solid allowance credentials. Her average speed figure of 55 matches the top runners in this field and gives her legitimate speed to compete. Trainer M. Brent Davidson sends her out with Weston Hamilton, and in a race where the favorite draws post 3, She's a Bond Too from post 5 could find a clean trip wide and finish with purpose.

show6Prairie BratML 12/1

Prairie Brat is the show pick here at 12/1 morning line, and her inclusion is a value play worth considering in trifecta coverage. Her TrackWiz rating of 59.97 puts her third in the field, which in a wide-open allowance makes her viable for a piece. She shares a trainer in Juan Padilla with the win pick — when a barn has a horse at 12/1 in the same race as its main entry, it sometimes signals a horse ready to fire. The 6% career win rate is the caveat, but the price more than compensates for the uncertainty.

Race 7

1:45 AM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

First quarter-horse sprint of the card at 350 yards, and it's a true maiden for all — no one has a win to their name, so it comes down entirely to raw ratings and connections.

win3Queen BlueML 2/1

Queen Blue carries the top TrackWiz rating in this maiden sprint at 88.54 — a substantial gap over the second-best horse at 77.60. She opens at 2/1 and draws Roman Cruz, one of the busiest and most capable jockeys working the Fair Meadows meet. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz is also handling a horse in Race 10, which keeps the barn active throughout the card. In a field of first-time winners, a horse with this kind of rating advantage is rare — and at 2/1, the price is still worth backing.

place4ClassncashML 5/2

Classncash slots in at 5/2 and carries a rating of 77.60, the second-highest mark in this field and well clear of the horses below. Cordarelton J. Benn gets the call, and trainer Harold L. Thomas points him here with confidence given the 5/2 morning line. At 350 yards, it's a blink-and-you-miss-it race where post position and break become paramount — Classncash from post 4 is well-positioned to grab a clean trip and hold for the place.

show7Bernal Little GirlML 4/1

Bernal Little Girl at 4/1 draws post 7 and carries a 59.15 rating — third in the field by a solid margin. Trainer Jesus Munoz Escobedo, who also saddles horses in Races 1 and 8, keeps a busy book today and has clearly pointed multiple runners toward specific spots. Jonathan Dominguez gets the call, and in a wide-open maiden where upsets are always possible, the 4/1 price on the third-best rated horse in the field is worth including in trifectas.

Race 8

2:10 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

Maiden claiming sprinters at 350 yards, and Kool Snow Wagon's massive rating advantage makes this look like a walkover on paper — though 3/1 isn't the best price if he falters out of the gate.

win7Kool Snow WagonML 3/1

Kool Snow Wagon has the top TrackWiz rating at 87.08 — a full 25 points ahead of the second-best horse in the field. That's a commanding edge in any race, and in a quarter-horse maiden claimer where the entire race happens in a matter of seconds, raw ratings carry serious weight. Trainer Gary K. Walker has him pointed here with Cordarelton J. Benn up. The 3/1 morning line is reasonable for a horse with this kind of paper edge, and he's our confident top selection.

place5Ramm BammML 6/1

Ramm Bamm opens at 6/1 and earns a TrackWiz rating of 61.46 — the second-highest in the race. Trainer Samuel E. Valdivia has two horses entered today (also Screamin Cmen in post 1), so he's clearly comfortable with his stable at this meet. Aram S. Martinez handles the riding assignment. At 6/1 with a legitimate claim to the second-best rating in the field, Ramm Bamm is a natural place contender and offers real value in exacta and trifecta tickets.

show4Famous WonML 3/1

Famous Won at 3/1 morning line carries a 57.08 rating, third in the field, and trainer Gerardo Quinones-Sarmiento gives him to Jonathan Dominguez — a jockey with multiple rides today who's clearly comfortable at 350 yards. The 3/1 price doesn't offer the value of Ramm Bamm, but Famous Won's rating difference from the place pick is modest, making him a solid underneath option in trifecta boxes or wheels.

Race 9

2:35 AM EDT

Allowance · 250 yd · Dirt

A competitive eight-horse allowance at 250 yards with three horses bunched between ratings of 78 and 88 — this could be the toughest race to call on the entire card.

win6Mariahs Candy GirlML 5/2

Mariahs Candy Girl opens at 5/2 and earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81, edging out the rest of a very competitive group. Her 7% career win rate is modest, but in a 250-yard race, raw ability and the ability to react quickly out of the gate often outweigh historical win percentages. Jonathan Dominguez handles the riding duties for trainer Erik N. Rodriguez-Garcia, and in a blink-fast distance like 250 yards, the combination of top rating and competent connections makes her the logical top choice.

place3Pevs Candy PML 5/1

Pevs Candy P is the most intriguing secondary play in the race — a TrackWiz rating of 80.99 and a 16% career win rate, the best win percentage among our three picks. Trainer Clinton Crawford, who also saddles Land Speed in Race 4, keeps an active barn today. Bonifacio Quiroz gets the call, and at 5/1 on the morning line, Pevs Candy P represents genuine overlay value for a horse whose career win percentage suggests she competes hard more often than not.

show1Vals CandyML 4/1

Vals Candy at 4/1 rounds out the picks with a 77.99 rating and a 12% career win rate. Trainer Buddy Leon Clay sends her out with Roman Cruz, who is one of the more active and reliable jockeys working this card. Three horses within about 10 rating points of each other at 250 yards is a recipe for a blanket finish, and Vals Candy's combination of rating and experienced rider makes her worth including in any exotic ticket structure.

Race 10

3:00 AM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

Ten runners in a 300-yard maiden sprint to close the card, and Eyesa Fancy Fling is a surprising morning-line longshot despite owning the best TrackWiz rating in a wide-open field.

win1Eyesa Fancy FlingML 6/1

Eyesa Fancy Fling is the top-rated horse on our board at 82.71, yet somehow opens at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a significant disconnect worth exploiting. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz is active throughout today's card (also running horses in Races 7 and 9), which suggests a barn in good form. Roman Cruz gets the mount, the same jockey who handled Queen Blue in Race 7. In a 10-horse maiden sprint at 300 yards, rating gaps matter, and leading the field by more than 24 points is meaningful.

place7Pyc SivakoML 8/1

Pyc Sivako at 8/1 carries a rating of 58.99, which slots in second among the field's top contenders once you account for the gap below the win pick. Trainer Guillermo Valdivia gives the mount to Ruben Castro in what looks like a live longshot situation. In a 300-yard dash with 10 runners, the chaos of a large gate can shuffle outcomes dramatically — a horse sitting at this price with the second-best rating in the field is worth singling out in exacta and trifecta combinations.

show5Remember Thiz KissML 3/1

Remember Thiz Kiss opens at 3/1 — the second-lowest morning-line price in the field — with a TrackWiz rating of 56.67 that places her third in the race. Trainer Samuel E. Valdivia, who also runs horses in Race 8, keeps multiple connections active today with Cody Rodger Smith up. The 3/1 price makes her less of a value play and more of a safety net in your ticket construction, but in a 10-horse field where anything can happen off the break, having the third-best rated horse as your show anchor is reasonable handicapping.

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Bottom line: Fair Meadows is serving up a fast-track, sun-baked ten-race card with El Protonico as the marquee win bet and Sharp Lorenzo as the premium play to build tickets around. The free races give you a strong start — but the real edge is in the full breakdown. Subscribe to TrackWiz and get every angle, every ticket, every race.

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