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Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — July 31, 2026

July 31, 20267 racesAll Emerald Downs picks

This card ran on July 31, 2026.

Best bets at Emerald Downs, July 31, 2026

Race 16Roxie's SecretML 3/110:00 PM EDT

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It's a beautiful summer Friday at Emerald Downs — clear skies, 82 degrees, and what should be a fast, true dirt surface all afternoon. Those are the conditions Pacific Northwest horseplayers dream about, and today's 7-race card is primed to deliver some sharp, front-running performances.

The card spans maiden claimers, open claimers, and a Starter Allowance closer, giving bettors a full range of betting structures to attack. Distance-wise, you've got sprints from 5½ to 6½ furlongs alongside two route races at a mile — enough variety to keep things interesting from first post to final furlong.

With a firm, consistent surface expected throughout the day, pace scenarios should play out predictably, which is exactly what you want when you're building multi-race tickets. Today looks like a grinder's card — stay disciplined, trust the numbers, and let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer full of first-time or winless runners makes this one a puzzle, but TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear two-horse standout at the top — with the rest of the field fighting over scraps.

win6Roxie's SecretML 3/1

Roxie's Secret tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 — a significant margin over the rest of this maiden field — and draws the 6 post for a clean look at 6 furlongs of Emerald Downs dirt. Trainer David B. Martinez sends her out with Pablo E. Castillo aboard, a solid in-house pairing. She opens at 3/1 on the morning line, which feels fair given the talent gap our analysis shows between her and the field. In a race where none of these runners have broken their maiden, raw rating edges tend to play out — and she's got the biggest one here.

place5Circle of FireML 5/2

Circle of Fire checks in at a 75.54 TrackWiz rating and comes in at 5/2 on the morning line — making her the second-choice both on the board and in our analysis. Trainer Gary E. O. Greiner has her positioned well, and she matches the top trio on average speed figures (54). If Roxie's Secret falters at all, Circle of Fire looks like the most likely beneficiary.

show1Boss GirlML 7/2

Boss Girl opens at 7/2 and carries a 56.39 rating — a step behind the top two but ahead of the rest of the field. Talliyah Timentwa gets the call for trainer Howard F. Gibson, and Boss Girl's average speed of 54 keeps her in the competitive cluster. She's a logical third piece in exotics if you're looking to build exacta or trifecta keys around the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

10:26 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A Silva-Martinez barn double-entry dominates the top of this short-field claimer, setting up a fascinating intra-stable dynamic — can the morning-line favorite hold off her stablemate?

win2A View From AboveML 6/5

A View From Above is the clear top choice here, posting a 89.71 TrackWiz rating and a career win percentage of 17% — among the best in this field. She opens as the 6/5 morning-line favorite under Silvio Ruiz Amador for trainer Alexis Silva-Martinez, and the connections clearly have her pointed for this spot. Over 5½ furlongs of Emerald Downs dirt, her speed profile (avg 56) matches the class of this claiming race perfectly.

place1Bluegrass Go GoML 7/2

Bluegrass Go Go is the other half of the Silva-Martinez entry and rates second in our TrackWiz model at 77.47. Kevin Krigger takes the mount, and the 7/2 morning line represents a touch of value given she's essentially trained alongside the favorite. Her 12% career win rate is respectable at this level, and in a five-horse field, a place finish feels well within reach.

show3Rhodium RunnerML 6/1

Rhodium Runner opens at 6/1 with a 63.17 rating — third-best in the field — and trainer Doug A. Carlson keeps a 12% career win rate with this one. Blake Nunnally rides, and while Rhodium Runner trails the top two by a meaningful margin in our ratings, the short field (just five runners) means show positions are more attainable. Worth including as the third leg in trifecta plays.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

TrackWiz is serving up three free best bets to kick off the afternoon. Race 1 opens with Roxie's Secret (morning line 3/1), a maiden claimer over 6 furlongs who our model rates at 87.08 — solid for the condition level and worth watching as a pace-setter on a surface that figures to reward early speed. In Race 2, A View From Above comes in as a morning-line favorite at 6/5 and earns our highest free-race rating at 89.71 — when you see a number like that in a 5½-furlong sprint, it's hard to look away. Race 3 stretches out to a flat mile with Exactamundo (5/2 ML, 87.81 rating), a maiden claimer who profiles as a route horse on a card that leans heavily toward sprinters — if the pace scenario sets up right, there could be real value here.

The common thread across all three? A fast Emerald Downs dirt track that should put a premium on horses that can establish position early and sustain it. Keep an eye on early fractions — if the sprints are running quick up front, the routers may get a slight pace advantage as the day goes on.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

10:52 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Two horses are separated from the pack in this maiden claimer going a mile — Exactamundo and Sailing Force are nearly deadlocked at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, setting up a head-to-head battle worth watching closely.

win3ExactamundoML 5/2

Exactamundo earns the top spot in our TrackWiz analysis with an 87.81 rating — the highest in this six-horse maiden field — and goes at 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Ryland M. Harwood sends him out with Silvio Ruiz Amador, one of the busier and more reliable jockeys on the Emerald Downs circuit. At a mile on the dirt, his ability to rate and close matters, and the slight edge over Sailing Force in raw rating tips our hand toward him in the win slot.

place5Sailing ForceML 9/5

Sailing Force is razor-close to Exactamundo with an 87.41 rating but goes off at the slightly shorter 9/5 morning line — meaning the market actually favors her even though our model has her a hair behind. Kevin E. Orozco is one of the sharper pilots at this meet, and trainer Patty Leaney keeps her well placed. The slight dip in average speed (53 vs. 55 for most rivals) is a minor flag going a full mile, but our confidence in her placing is high.

show1Flight RyderML 4/1

Flight Ryder slots in third with a 69.69 rating at 4/1 morning line — a step below the top two but well clear of the rest of the field. Alex V. Anaya rides for the prolific Jorge Rosales barn, and the 4/1 price makes him attractive in exotic structures. If the top two hook up early and set a contested pace, Flight Ryder could sneak into the picture late.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

11:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Kristin Lee enters this 6½-furlong claimer as a dominant favorite — her 36% career win rate and near-perfect 90.00 TrackWiz rating make this look like a two-horse race at best, with Annika's Song as the main threat.

win3Kristin LeeML 4/5

Kristin Lee is as close to a standout as you'll find on a racing card — a 90.00 TrackWiz rating (our model's ceiling), a remarkable 36% career win percentage, and a 4/5 morning line that the public clearly agrees with. Trainer Faustino Patino sends her out with Silvio Ruiz Amador in the irons, and her average speed of 56 ties the top of this field. At 6½ furlongs on Emerald Downs dirt, she profiles as a pace-presser with the class edge to pull away. The only question is whether the short price leaves you enough ROI — but the edge is real.

place2Annika's SongML 2/1

Annika's Song is the most credible challenger at 2/1 with an 84.45 rating and an 18% career win rate. Adrian Castellanos rides for trainer Mark Cloutier, and while she trails Kristin Lee meaningfully in our model, she's comfortably clear of the rest of the field. She looks like the safest place bet on the card — if Kristin Lee is your win single, Annika's Song practically writes herself into the exacta.

show5Coastal GirlML 5/1

Coastal Girl opens at 5/1 with a 67.35 rating and a 10% career win rate for the Alexis Silva-Martinez barn. Frank T. Alvarado rides, and while she's a tier below the top two, her average speed of 56 keeps her competitive. At 5/1 morning line, she offers some overlay value for trifecta construction if you're willing to concede the top two spots.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 5

11:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Adios Nicanor looms as the class of this six-horse claimer at 6 furlongs, but the Jorge Rosales barn enters two runners and the pace scenario could get complicated — making this more interesting than the morning line suggests.

win6Adios NicanorML 9/5

Adios Nicanor checks in with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — well clear of the field — and goes at 9/5 with Adrian Castellanos in the irons for trainer Tom Wenzel. His average speed of 56 matches the top of this field, and a 15% career win rate understates his current form, which our model has rated significantly above his competition today. At just under 2-1, the price isn't generous, but the edge is real and this looks like a solid win bet.

place2Mr. ExecutiveML 7/2

Mr. Executive rates second at 68.66 with Silvio Ruiz Amador aboard for trainer Jorge Rosales — the same barn that also enters Handsome Ticket in the win spot. Ruiz Amador is one of the meet's most active jockeys and gets the higher-rated of the two Rosales horses. A 17% career win rate at this claiming level suggests he fires often enough to trust in the place spot.

show4Taino HouseML 5/2

Taino House slots in with a 67.43 rating — nearly identical to Mr. Executive — and draws Kevin Krigger for trainer Charles Essex. His 22% career win rate is actually the stronger win percentage of the two horses we're using underneath, and his 5/2 morning line makes him very competitively priced. Taino House is a natural show backup in trifecta tickets and a live threat to move up if the pace scenario plays his way.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Elder Mack enters this mile claimer as the clear class standout in a seven-horse field, but the deep roster and a handful of double-digit-win-percentage horses make the back half of the exotics genuinely interesting.

win5Elder MackML 3/1

Elder Mack is the easy top selection here — an 87.08 TrackWiz rating, a 28% career win percentage (best in the field by a wide margin), and a 3/1 morning line that represents fair value for the class gap he holds. Silvio Ruiz Amador takes the mount for trainer Blaine D. Wright, a sharp combination. His average speed of 56 is tied for the best in the field, and over a mile of Emerald Downs dirt, a horse with his win rate and rating should be controlling the pace conversation.

place7AfjanML 7/2

Afjan comes in at 7/2 with a 66.2 rating and a 24% career win rate — both figures that make him a legitimate contender for the place spot. Kevin Krigger rides for trainer Shelly Crowe, and while Afjan trails Elder Mack significantly in the ratings, he's comfortably clear of the rest of the field at 4/1 and below. The price makes him attractive as the top exacta partner.

show1Baie LongueML 4/1

Baie Longue opens at 4/1 on the morning line with a 58.44 rating and a 12% career win rate for trainer Joe Toye. Frank T. Alvarado picks up the mount, and while Baie Longue is a step behind the top two in raw ratings, the 4/1 price in a seven-horse field is workable. He's a solid third piece in trifecta plays — a bridge between the standout and the longshot territory in the rest of the field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

12:36 AM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A full nine-horse Starter Allowance field going just over a mile sets up a race with legitimate pace intrigue — the top three horses in our model are closely bunched, and Princess Hekawi's eye-popping 46% career win rate makes the morning-line order worth questioning.

win7Greatful AttitudeML 3/1

Greatful Attitude earns the top TrackWiz rating at 87.08 and goes at 3/1 on the morning line with Adrian Castellanos in the irons for trainer Frank Lucarelli. A 25% career win rate at the Starter Allowance level shows he's competitive in this spot, and Castellanos is one of the meet's sharper big-field jockeys. Over a mile and 70 yards, his rating edge over the field — particularly in a nine-horse field with some soft spots — gives him a clear profile as the win selection.

place3Kinky MoonML 7/2

Kinky Moon rates second in our model at 83.48 and draws Frank T. Alvarado for trainer Steve C. Fisher at 7/2 on the morning line. His average speed of 55 is tied for the best in the field, and a 14% career win rate in what is likely a step-up spot at Starter Allowance conditions suggests he's competitive without being a lock. The 7/2 price is workable for the place slot in exacta structures.

show6Princess HekawiML 5/2

Princess Hekawi is the most fascinating horse in this race — a 46% career win rate that absolutely jumps off the page, even if her 79.83 TrackWiz rating slots her third. Kevin Krigger takes the mount for trainer Tim McCanna at 5/2 on the morning line, making her the second betting choice. That career win percentage suggests a horse who fires hard when conditions are right, and our model may be slightly undervaluing her based on raw historical performance. She's a strong show play and honestly worth a win ticket of her own at the price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Bottom line: Emerald Downs has a deep, playable 7-race card under ideal summer conditions today. A View From Above is our best free play, Kristin Lee is the top-rated horse on the card, and there's legitimate multi-race value threaded throughout the afternoon. Free picks for Races 1–3 are ready to go — and if you want the full picture, including pace maps, exotic breakdowns, and that Starter Allowance angle in Race 7, subscribe to TrackWiz Premium and get it all before first post. Good luck out there.

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