Daily Picks

Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — July 19, 2026

Sunday, July 19, 202611 racesEmerald Downs

It's a beautiful Sunday at Emerald Downs — clear skies, 77°F, and a fast dirt surface that should reward horses with early pace and class. Conditions don't get much better than this in the Pacific Northwest, and the track is set up to deliver some sharp efforts from top to bottom.

Today's 11-race card is loaded, with no fewer than five stakes races spread across Races 6 through 11. That's a serious closing stretch that gives bettors plenty of firepower for multi-race wagers. We've got TrackWiz ratings and pace projections covering every single race, and the numbers are pointing to some genuinely interesting spots.

Three races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — are unlocked and free for every reader. The full-card breakdown, including all five stakes races, is available to TrackWiz subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite is beatable on paper, but TrackWiz numbers say otherwise — Calmcoolncollected brings a commanding rating edge in this 6-furlong dirt claimer.

win3CalmcoolncollectedML 6/5

Calmcoolncollected sports the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.71, a meaningful gap over the second-best horse in here. Trainer Steve Bullock sends her out at 6/5 on the morning line, reflecting market confidence, and her average speed figure of 57 leads all five entrants. In a six-furlong sprint where early positioning matters, that combination of raw speed and overall rating dominance makes her the clear selection.

place1CantcatchthiscatML 5/2

Cantcatchthiscat draws the rail and packs a career win rate of 22% — the highest in the field by a notable margin — with a solid TrackWiz rating of 77.46. Isaias D. Enriquez gets the call, and if Calmcoolncollected faces any pace pressure, this one has the tactical speed to sneak into the exacta slot.

show4Three PuttML 3/1

Three Putt comes in at 3/1 on the morning line with a 16% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 61.88, putting him squarely in the middle of the pack quality-wise. He offers enough residual class to land a piece of the superfecta, and Kevin Krigger is a capable rider who knows how to place horses in spots like this.

Race 2

9:18 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Two horses are separated from the rest of this allowance optional claiming field — but they land on opposite ends of the morning line, setting up a potential value angle with the place pick.

win3Adios JojoML 8/5

Adios Jojo is the clear top choice, sporting a 33% career win rate — best in the field — alongside a TrackWiz rating of 83.96 that leads the field. The 8/5 morning line is fair given the profile, and trainer Howard F. Gibson is putting him in a spot where the class fits. Jockey Kevin E. Orozco gets the mount on the one-mile dirt route, a distance that should suit a horse with this kind of overall rating.

place4Atmospheric RiverML 6/1

Atmospheric River is the most interesting horse on the board at 6/1 morning line odds, yet her TrackWiz rating of 82.71 is nearly identical to Adios Jojo's — that's a significant overlay if the market doesn't close the gap. Trainer Charles Essex has her set up for a route with a 23% career win rate backing the effort, and Silvio Ruiz Amador provides a capable hand in the irons.

show2Candy CaballoML 5/2

Candy Caballo brings a 23% career win rate to a field where consistency counts, and her TrackWiz rating of 57.57 slots her in comfortably as a third-place contender. Adrian Castellanos takes the mount for trainer Tom Wenzel, a combo that knows how to hit the board in these mid-level allowance spots.

Race 3

9:46 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers at 5 furlongs are always unpredictable — no one in this field has broken their maiden, and career win percentages are across the board at zero — so trainer patterns and speed figures become the key differentiators.

win7CantlayML 3/1

Cantlay tops the TrackWiz ratings at 56.67 and draws in at 3/1, which positions him as the value leader in this wide-open maiden field. Trainer Frank Lucarelli knows what he's doing in these spots, and jockey Isaias D. Enriquez is a reliable hand in the irons. An average speed figure of 55 is respectable for a five-furlong maiden dash, and the overall profile is the most polished in the field.

place8Polar PatrolML 7/2

Polar Patrol, also trained by Frank Lucarelli, makes this a powerful barn afternoon — he carries a rating of 55.83 and an average speed of 56, which is the highest speed mark in the field. The 7/2 morning line offers a touch of value, and Kiaman McGregor gives him a shot to fire at minimum the place spot in what is essentially a coin-flip maiden race.

show5Candy CharmerML 4/1

Candy Charmer checks in at 4/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 55.00, putting her right in the mix with the top two selections. Trainer Howard F. Gibson saddles multiple runners today and clearly has a feel for the condition of his barn — Adrian Castellanos gets the mount here, and the combo gives her a live shot to hit the board.

Our three free previews today cover a claiming sprint, an allowance optional claiming route, and a maiden claiming sprint — a nice cross-section of the card to get your day started. Calmcoolncollected leads the way in Race 1 with our highest rating of the free races (89.71) and looks well-placed as the morning-line favorite in a six-furlong dirt sprint where early speed figures to be rewarded on this surface. Adios Jojo draws the eye in Race 2 going a flat mile — a distance that often separates class-equipped horses from the pack, and our analysis suggests the 8/5 morning line may actually be fair value. Race 3 is the wild card: maiden claimers over five furlongs can be chaotic, but Cantlay has enough going for him at 3/1 to make him a reasonable anchor if you're building an early Pick 3.

On a fast, dry Emerald Downs dirt track, watch for horses that can press or sit just off the pace — pure front-runners can get caught late when the track is this quick and ground conditions are even all the way around.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A fascinating pace scenario shapes up in this one-mile dirt claimer — the morning line favorite isn't the top-rated horse, creating a potential upset angle for TrackWiz's top pick.

win7Roses R BlueML 7/2

Roses R Blue owns the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 86.35 going into this one-mile claimer, yet she's available at 7/2 on the morning line while the favorite Platinum Diva opens at 8/5. That's a meaningful discrepancy worth exploiting. Blake Nunnally gets the call for trainer Jose Puentes, and even with a 10% career win rate, the rating advantage here is significant enough to make this the best bet of the race.

place6Platinum DivaML 8/5

Platinum Diva is the public's choice at 8/5, and she earns it with a solid 23% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 77.68. Adrian Castellanos pilots for trainer Jorge Rosales, a sharp combo at this level. She's a logical place bet, but the rating gap behind Roses R Blue is real enough that the value play is to take Roses R Blue to win and use Platinum Diva underneath.

show2Shanghai BarbieML 8/1

Shanghai Barbie comes in at 8/1 but deserves a second look — her TrackWiz rating of 75.84 is third-best in the field and her 14% career win rate is solid at this level. Trainer Jose Puentes runs two horses in this race, and Silvio Ruiz Amador gives Shanghai Barbie every chance to pick up a piece of the ticket at a price.

Race 5

10:51 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

One horse dominates this starter allowance field from a TrackWiz rating standpoint, and his career win percentage makes him look like a standout — but there's fair value to be found underneath him.

win5Brother o' BrienML 5/2

Brother o' Brien is the easy top pick here with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — easily the class of this field — and an eye-popping 38% career win rate that speaks for itself. Kevin Krigger handles the mount for trainer Tim McCanna, and at 5/2 morning line odds, this is among the more justified short-priced favorites on today's card. In a one-mile starter allowance where consistent performers separate themselves, Brother o' Brien's profile is simply on another level.

place7Benny BucketsML 4/1

Benny Buckets sits third on the TrackWiz ratings at 65.53 with a 16% career win rate and draws in at 4/1 on the morning line. Jockey Isaias D. Enriquez and trainer Michael Puhich form a solid tandem here, and in a race where the favorite should get the lion's share of attention, Benny Buckets could find a comfortable stalking position to land the place spot.

show4J. B. BooksML 3/1

J. B. Books at 3/1 carries a remarkable 31% career win rate — second only to Brother o' Brien in this field — making him a legitimate threat to pick up a piece. Trainer Jorge Rosales and jockey Adrian Castellanos are a sharp combo, and while his TrackWiz rating of 56.50 trails the top two selections, that career win rate demands respect in a spot like this.

Race 6

11:22 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Stakes company with a genuine puzzle at the top — the morning line favorite Aloha Breeze has an elite career win rate, but TrackWiz numbers favor Saleen G T, setting up a contentious battle at 6.5 furlongs.

win4Saleen G TML 5/1

Saleen G T leads all TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 in this stakes field and posts the top average speed figure at 57, which is a critical edge in a 6.5-furlong dirt sprint where fractions matter. Trainer Frank Lucarelli and jockey Isaias D. Enriquez team up for what looks like a live shot at a price — the 5/1 morning line makes this the best value among the contenders. A 50% career win rate underscores the quality here.

place7Aloha BreezeML EVN

Aloha Breeze opens as the even-money favorite for good reason — a stunning 66% career win rate is the best in the field, and trainer Tom Wenzel clearly has this one cranked up. Adrian Castellanos is a sharp rider who can manage pace in shorter sprints. The rating of 81.40 is just slightly below Saleen G T, so if the favorite does fire, she's not giving much away.

show2LapushML 9/2

Lapush comes in at 9/2 with a 53% career win rate that would be the headline number in most fields — she's simply third in a very talented group today. Trainer Tom Wenzel runs two horses in this stakes, and Frank T. Alvarado on the outside gives her a clean trip early. At 9/2, she offers enough value to include in show and exotic tickets.

Race 7

11:53 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A juvenile-style stakes at 5.5 furlongs where one horse stands apart from the rest — Mattie Goincoastal's unblemished record and top TrackWiz figure make this feel like a one-horse race, though the undercard has some live shots.

win6Mattie GoincoastalML EVN

Mattie Goincoastal brings a 100% career win rate into this spot — she's undefeated — and posts a leading TrackWiz rating of 60.00 against a field that hasn't broken through for a win yet. Trainer Howard F. Gibson is in sharp form today, and Kevin E. Orozco gets the call on what looks like the class of the field. At even money, she's not a bargain, but the perfect record is the record.

place1Pure DynamiteML 7/2

Pure Dynamite draws the rail at 7/2 with the second-highest TrackWiz rating at 55.83 and an average speed figure of 56 that ties the best in the field. Trainer Steve Bullock and jockey Kevin Krigger are a solid pairing in these short-field stakes sprints, and if Mattie Goincoastal faces any pressure early, Pure Dynamite has the profile to capitalize.

show3MajoricalML 5/1

Majorical comes in at 5/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 53.33 and an average speed of 55, putting her right in the thick of the secondary group. Trainer David B. Martinez and jockey Silvio Ruiz Amador give her a professional setup, and in a short field of six, landing the show spot requires only that she hold off the bottom half of the field — a realistic ask.

Race 8

12:24 AM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The nightcap's earlier stakes race at 5.5 furlongs features a dominant top selection with a perfect record and a massive rating edge — but underneath, a lively battle shapes up for the minor awards.

win7Caps and CarnageML 2/1

Caps and Carnage is the standout of this entire card from a rating standpoint — an 88.54 TrackWiz figure is the highest we've seen all night, and a perfect 100% career win rate validates the number. Trainer Dru S. Hall sends this one out at 2/1 morning line odds with Luis A. Valenzuela up, and the top average speed figure of 57 gives her the edge in what is a sprint distance where early zip counts. This is as close to a lock as racing allows.

place6Diamond DasherML 5/2

Diamond Dasher is also undefeated with a 100% career win rate and posts the joint-best average speed of 57 alongside Caps and Carnage. Trainer Tom Wenzel is rolling today and Frank T. Alvarado guides her from the six-hole. At 5/2, she's reasonably priced if you think Caps and Carnage handles the distance cleanly — and she's the logical place anchor in any exacta.

show4ZiwhatML 7/2

Ziwhat slots in comfortably with a TrackWiz rating of 55.83 and an average speed of 56, drawing in at 7/2 morning line for trainer Tom Wenzel. Adrian Castellanos picks up the mount, and with two undefeated horses likely to separate themselves at the top, Ziwhat is the natural third-place candidate in what looks like a three-horse race.

Race 9

12:55 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Stakes racing at 6.5 furlongs with a genuine triangle at the top — the morning line favorite isn't the top-rated horse, and TrackWiz sees real value in an upset angle with Si That Tiger.

win1Si That TigerML 5/2

Si That Tiger tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 despite opening at 5/2 on the morning line, while Tax Code — rated 81.08 — draws more public support at 9/5. That rating gap in Si That Tiger's favor is the key angle here. A 60% career win rate is simply elite, and Silvio Ruiz Amador gives the Blaine D. Wright trainee a reliable pilot in the irons for the 6.5-furlong dirt sprint.

place7Tax CodeML 9/5

Tax Code opens as the morning line favorite at 9/5 with a 37% career win rate and a top average speed figure of 57, tied for best in the field. Kevin Krigger is one of the sharper riders on the Emerald Downs circuit and gives this horse every chance to run down whatever gets loose on the front end. Even if Si That Tiger beats him, Tax Code's profile screams place and exacta coverage.

show5Executive ChefML 5/1

Executive Chef comes in at 5/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 77.75 — third-best in the field — and a 33% career win rate that demands respect. Jockey Isaias D. Enriquez handles the mount for trainer Michael Puhich, and with an average speed of 57 matching the top horses in here, Executive Chef has the raw ability to land a piece of this stakes at a fair price.

Race 10

1:25 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile stakes with depth across the board — three horses are in a tight cluster on the TrackWiz ratings, and the morning line doesn't fully reflect the threat of the top pick, creating excellent value.

win7ChaseML 3/1

Chase leads all comers with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and carries a stellar 40% career win rate into this stakes mile — both marks are best in the field. Trainer Steve Henson sends him out at 3/1 on the morning line with Silvio Ruiz Amador aboard, and an average speed of 56 keeps him competitive with the field's best. In a race where two other horses cluster just below his rating, Chase is the clearest top selection on the card.

place8Ole's SurpriseML 4/1

Ole's Surprise at 4/1 is a fascinating follow-up play — a 73.04 TrackWiz rating and 25% career win rate keep her firmly in the mix, and trainer Mark Cloutier has put her in a spot where the distance suits. Allyssa Morales gets the mount and has navigated this course well, giving Ole's Surprise a real shot to be right there at the wire if Chase draws clear on the front end.

show2Robin RacerML 5/2

Robin Racer sits at 5/2 on the morning line with a 33% career win rate and a solid 72.61 TrackWiz rating — nearly matching Ole's Surprise in overall quality. Trainer Tom Wenzel is one of the busiest and most effective barns at Emerald Downs today, and Frank T. Alvarado provides confident handling in a route that should bring out the best in this one. She's the natural show closer.

Race 11

1:54 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

The day's finale is a stakes mile that features the single highest-rated horse on the entire card and a wagering favorite who makes plenty of sense — but the morning line is misaligned enough to reward those who look a bit deeper.

win3Bewitching JoyML 6/5

Bewitching Joy is the top-rated horse not just in this race but tied for the highest single TrackWiz rating on the card at 89.71, and a 66% career win rate makes the 6/5 morning line feel almost generous. Trainer Frank Lucarelli has her dialed in, and jockey Isaias D. Enriquez — who has multiple mounts in tonight's stakes card — knows this horse's tendencies. This is as strong a win selection as we can make with confidence.

place1Subtle ShimmerML 9/2

Subtle Shimmer at 9/2 brings an 84.16 TrackWiz rating — second-best in this field — alongside a 28% career win rate, which is respectable in stakes company. Trainer Howard F. Gibson has had a productive night, and Adrian Castellanos gives her a professional trip from the inside post. If Bewitching Joy gets away clean, Subtle Shimmer profiles as the most natural and highest-quality place finisher in this seven-horse field.

show7Falling LeavesML 5/2

Falling Leaves draws in at 5/2 on the morning line with a 33% career win rate — the best among the secondary group — and a TrackWiz rating of 69.51 that puts her clearly ahead of the bottom half of the field. Trainer Tom Wenzel gets Frank T. Alvarado up, and in a stakes mile where the front runners may be tested by the pace, Falling Leaves has the pedigree and winning percentage to collect a check.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: today at Emerald Downs is a card worth playing seriously. The free previews on Calmcoolncollected, Adios Jojo, and Cantlay give you a strong foundation for the early races, and the stakes-heavy closing sequence is where the real opportunities live. Full card analysis — including pace scenarios, exotic structures, and every premium pick — is waiting for subscribers. Don't leave money on the table.

← Back to all picks

Best Bets

Race 1↗

Race 2↗

Race 3↗

Full Card Analysis

Get the Full Card Analysis

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3