Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — June 21, 2026

One Phil rates out at 55.83 and carries the third-highest average speed figure in the field at 57 — the best of any contender here. Trainer Vince Gibson has him at 7/2, making One Phil the second choice on the morning line, and Alex V. Anaya is a competent pilot for a horse that clearly has the raw speed to compete. If Tiz Dynamic faces any trouble, One Phil looks like the most natural heir to the top spot.

Harbor Buddy comes in with a 53.33 rating and is one of two horses in the field showing no recorded average speed figure — which adds some mystery but also some upside. Trainer Tim McCanna sends him out at 5/1 with Karlo Lopez, and his rating ranks him solidly in the second tier of this field. For trifecta players, he's worth including as a place or show piece given the competitive pricing.

Jullian in Paris is barely a whisker behind at 83.78 and opens as the 3/1 morning-line favorite — the shortest price in the field, which tells you the public trusts this horse. Kevin Krigger is one of the sharper riders on this circuit, and a 9% career win rate in what appears to be tougher prior competition could be masking some upside. If Jullian in Paris fires his best shot here, the exacta of My Vino/Jullian in Paris looks like the core combination to play.

Benny Buckets rates out at 73.14 — a meaningful gap behind the top two but well clear of the rest — and comes in at 7/2 with Pablo E. Castillo for trainer Michael Puhich. A 16% career win rate and an average speed of 54 suggest a consistent, if unspectacular, performer who tends to make his presence felt. In a three-horse exotics key situation, Benny Buckets is the obvious show piece.

Creative Om is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 and carries the field's best career win rate at a remarkable 31% — more than any other horse in this race. Gibson also trains this one, giving him a powerful one-two punch, and Adrian Castellanos picks up the mount. A 75.00 rating and consistent 55 average speed suggest a horse who runs his race every time — exactly the kind of profile you want for a place bet.

Veritas Aequitas comes in at 9/2 with a 59.21 rating and a solid 17% career win rate, sitting just outside the top tier but clearly capable in this company. Kevin Krigger rides, and trainer Dan L. Markle has him primed for an allowance spot. With the top two horses from the same barn potentially splitting the pace scenario, Veritas Aequitas could sneak through on the inside for a share.

Tax Code rates out at 76.19 and matches Si That Tiger's 56 average speed while carrying a strong 33% career win rate. Kevin Krigger gets the mount for trainer Wright, meaning the trainer is double-handed with serious firepower here. At 7/2, there's genuine place value if Si That Tiger hits any speed bumps, and Tax Code's profile is that of a legitimate stakes-level runner.

Executive Chef checks in at a 74.36 rating with a 34% career win rate — strong credentials that make 6/1 a potentially overlaid price in a six-horse stakes field. Kevin E. Orozco guides this one for trainer Wright in what is a three-horse barn invasion. The average speed of 56 keeps him right in line with the top contenders, and he's a natural show-bet target for anyone looking to protect a Win on Si That Tiger.

Aloha Breeze is the 6/5 morning-line favorite and for good reason — a 65% career win rate is extraordinary for a horse in a stakes race. Trainer Tom Wenzel and rider Carlos Montalvo are a reliable team, and a 55 average speed with that strike rate makes the favorite hard to throw out even if the TrackWiz rating lands just below Saleen G T. The pick here is to beat her on top and use her underneath for safety.

Sharp Ride enters with a 70.05 rating and a robust 46% career win rate — the third-highest win percentage in a loaded field. Karlo Lopez rides for trainer Debbie Peery, and the 57 average speed is tied for the top mark in the race. At 6/1, Sharp Ride is meaningfully underrated in the morning line relative to her form, and she's a strong inclusion in any exotic play involving the top two choices.

Crossbone is nearly identical to the top choice at 84.90 — just 1.41 points back — and also posts a 33% career win rate with a 56 average speed. Trainer Howard F. Gibson and jockey Adrian Castellanos are a sharp combo, and at 9/2, Crossbone offers real place value if the favorite stumbles at all. This is the horse to beat for second, and he's capable of reversing the ratings if the pace sets up his way.

Chase rates out at 74.63 with a 25% career win rate and draws the rail at 6/1 under Silvio Ruiz Amador for trainer Steve Henson. While there's a gap between Chase and the top two, a 55 average speed and gate-to-wire potential from post one keeps him firmly in the exotics picture. In a stakes sprint, the rail draw at Emerald Downs can be a significant advantage early, and that pace edge could earn him a piece of the trifecta.

Too Sassy opens as the 9/5 morning-line favorite and checks in with a 50% career win rate alongside a 75.56 TrackWiz rating — the second-best in the field. Silvio Ruiz Amador handles the ride for trainer Sam J. Scolamieri, and a 55 average speed keeps Too Sassy right on par with the top contenders. She's the kind of reliable money horse who hits the board regularly and makes the exacta with Bewitching Joy the obvious primary combination.

Subtle Shimmer rates at 74.92 — just a fraction below Too Sassy — and posts a 33% career win rate with a 56 average speed, the best figure in the race. Trainer Howard F. Gibson sends her out with Adrian Castellanos at 6/1, which looks like a generous price for a horse this close to the top of the ratings. She's the value inclusion in trifecta tickets and a strong show bet for bettors who want to hedge against the top two.

Denada is the value angle here at 10/1 on the morning line — a significant overlay given her 72.81 TrackWiz rating, which is second in the field. Trainer Gary E. O. Greiner conditions both Denada and Circle of Fire in this race, a two-pronged attack that suggests stable confidence. A 55 average speed and the second-best overall rating make 10/1 look generous, and Talliyah Timentwa aboard gives her every chance to run a big number.

Circle of Fire rates at 69.50 with a 55 average speed and is the other half of the Greiner barn entry in this race, opening at 6/1. Silvio Ruiz Amador picks up the mount, adding a jockey upgrade that's worth noting. In a nine-horse maiden field, having the second and third-best rated horses from the same barn is a powerful setup, and Circle of Fire at 6/1 offers real show value and exotics depth.