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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — September 3, 2026

September 3, 20268 racesAll Del Mar picks

Results are in — see the official Del Mar chart and payouts (our top pick won 5 of 8)→

It's a beautiful Thursday afternoon at Del Mar — clear skies, 76°F, and the Pacific breeze doing exactly what you want it to do on a turf day. Conditions are about as clean as they get at the Jewel of the Pacific, and that matters plenty on a card that splits evenly between the lawn and the main track.

Eight races are on the schedule today, mixing allowance company, claiming fields, and a pair of maiden routes that could surface some interesting price horses. Three of those races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and the free picks alone carry some genuine conviction — we're talking top ratings north of 87 in Race 1.

The turf is where the early action lives. Races 1 and 4 both go five furlongs on the lawn, and with the going firm and fast under ideal conditions, front-runners and pace-pressers figure to have a real edge. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets today.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A short turf sprint with a clear top-two on the TrackWiz ratings, but the morning line tells a different story — the market is leaning on the 8/5 favorite while our model loves the 5/2 shot.

win2TahiniML 5/2

Tahini earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.81, a significant gap over the rest of the contenders in a five-furlong turf dash. A 15% career win rate is solid in this spot, and trainer George Papaprodromou has shown a consistent eye for placing horses where they can fire. With Antonio Fresu up, who has been one of the sharpest riders at the meet, Tahini gets a jockey capable of stealing the rail and dictating position in a short sprint.

place4Bit's Tiger MagicML 8/5

Bit's Tiger Magic is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 for a reason — that 50% career win rate is the best in the field by a wide margin, and a TrackWiz rating of 82.91 puts this horse firmly in the top tier. Trainer Peter Miller has a strong stable at Del Mar, and Juan J. Hernandez knows how to get horses placed early in sprint trips. If Tahini has any issues at the break, this one takes over.

show5CertitudeML 3/1

Certitude at 3/1 on the morning line brings a 21% career win rate — second best in the race — and John W. Sadler is a trainer you never discount on the turf at Del Mar. The 69.68 rating trails the top two but is well clear of the rest, making Certitude a logical piece in exactas and trifectas as a solid third option.

Race 2

9:34 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A full field of nine in a one-mile dirt claimer where three horses are separated by less than a point in the ratings — pace and trip luck could be the deciding factor here.

win8Sugar ReignML 5/2

Sugar Reign tops the TrackWiz ratings at 80.4 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 5/2, suggesting the connections and the public are aligned. A 14% career win rate is respectable in the claiming ranks, and trainer Jeff Bonde does solid work at this circuit. With Armando Aguilar in the irons, Sugar Reign figures to get a patient trip over a mile of dirt and be rolling late.

place9Bitter TruthML 8/1

Bitter Truth is the value angle here — sitting at 8/1 on the morning line despite a TrackWiz rating of 79.79, nearly identical to the top pick. A 16% career win rate is the best in the field, and Kazushi Kimura has been a consistent performer who can navigate a nine-horse field without burning extra ground. At those odds, Bitter Truth is a standout place-bet value and should be included in all your exotics.

show2Good Golly DollyML 5/1

Good Golly Dolly brings a 75.7 rating and Joel Rosario aboard — and Rosario is the kind of jockey who can manufacture a good trip even when the pace scenario isn't perfect. Trainer Steve R. Knapp and a 14% career win rate keep this one in the mix as a reliable third wheel in trifecta and superfecta combinations at 5/1 morning line.

Race 3

10:07 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer on the dirt with thirteen runners and nobody carrying a career win — this is projection territory, and the TrackWiz ratings spread the field wide.

win4Farmer TomML 7/2

Farmer Tom leads our ratings at 73.99 in a field where the gaps between horses are significant, and that kind of separation in a maiden claimer matters. Trainer Andy Mathis gets Cesar Belmont aboard, and at 7/2 on the morning line, the market is already paying attention. The average speed figure of 53 is mid-pack, but in a race this open, a clean trip and a confident ride can paper over a lot of cracks.

place10Dazzle CommML 3/1

Dazzle Comm comes in second on the TrackWiz model at 63.57 and draws Kazushi Kimura, who is adept at rating horses over a mile of dirt. Trainer Brendan W. Galvin has this one priced at 3/1 on the morning line, implying solid stable confidence. In maiden claiming company with no proven winners, Dazzle Comm's edge in the ratings makes a place finish a reasonable expectation.

show9Wasting AcesML 4/1

Wasting Aces sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 56.97 with Abel Lezcano up, and the 4/1 morning line suggests legitimate public support. There's a meaningful gap between Wasting Aces and the rest of the field below, so while a win may be a stretch, hitting the board in a race this chaotic is a reasonable outcome worth covering in your exotics.

Our three free best bets today cover a nice cross-section of the card. Tahini opens things up in Race 1 — a five-furlong turf sprint in Allowance Optional Claiming company — and carries our highest free-race rating at 87.81. On a firm turf course with no weather interference, a horse with her profile is exactly what you want to anchor a win bet or a multi-race sequence.

Sugar Reign (Race 2, 5/2 morning line) and Farmer Tom (Race 3, 7/2) handle the dirt side of the free slate, both going a flat mile on the main track. The one-mile dirt route often rewards horses that can track the pace without burning energy early — watch the break and the first quarter on both. Farmer Tom at 7/2 in a Maiden Claiming field is a price worth noting if he shows any early foot.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:37 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Unbinding enters as a class standout in a five-furlong turf Starter Optional Claimer, boasting the top rating and a morning line that suggests this could be a short-priced winner — the question is whether the price is worth it.

win1UnbindingML 2/1

Unbinding is the clear top selection here with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — a full nine points clear of the second-best horse in the field. The 50% career win rate is eye-popping and speaks to a horse that knows how to hit the wire first. Trainer Mark Glatt is one of the sharpest conditioners at Del Mar, and Umberto Rispoli is as reliable as it gets for a short turf sprint. At 2/1, the price isn't generous, but the profile is hard to argue with.

place4Not A SinnerML 3/1

Not A Sinner at 3/1 rates second on our model at 79.12, and trainer Simon Callaghan is a name that carries weight on the Southern California turf circuit. Antonio Fresu has been riding with purpose at this meet, and a 10% career win rate in what appears to be a lightly raced horse suggests upside. If Unbinding gets into any pace trouble on the front end, Not A Sinner is positioned to capitalize.

show3NikolinaML 5/1

Nikolina brings a 69.03 rating and a 28% career win rate — among the better strike rates in this field — for trainer Philip D'Amato, who consistently fields turf horses ready to run. Kazushi Kimura takes the mount, and at 5/1 on the morning line, Nikolina offers some legitimate each-way value if you want a third piece in your exotics without going too deep into the field.

Race 5

11:09 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt maiden special weight with a field of first-time or lightly raced runners — Plagarist separates himself on the TrackWiz model, but two Bob Baffert entries will attract sharp money.

win5PlagaristML 3/1

Plagarist leads this maiden field with a rating of 77.3, a meaningful edge over a competitive but unproven group. Mark Glatt has two horses in this race, and putting Abel Lezcano on Plagarist over Kazushi Kimura on Knave of Hearts suggests the stable's preference. The 3/1 morning line is fair for the top-rated runner, and Lezcano is capable of rating a horse off a pace scenario that could get hot early with Baffert runners in the mix.

place4Truth Or DareML 7/2

Truth Or Dare draws the services of Juan J. Hernandez for Bob Baffert, and in maiden special weight company, that Baffert barn angle is always worth noting. The 55.83 rating puts this one just ahead of stablemate Collmus, and Hernandez is the go-to rider for Baffert's top choices. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is a horse that could easily beat several here if it fires first time out.

show2CollmusML 4/1

Collmus is the second Baffert runner at 4/1, with Emisael Jaramillo in the irons, and a rating of 55.0 that keeps this one relevant. In maiden races, having two shots at the Baffert barn is a legitimate hedging strategy, and Collmus's presence as a 4/1 shot suggests the public respects the trainer angle. Include this one in trifecta tickets as a live show horse.

Race 6

11:42 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A big field for a one-mile turf claimer after two scratches, and the TrackWiz model finds value at the top — Miss Meagher grades out as the best at 6/1, a genuine overlay situation worth pressing.

win12Miss MeagherML 6/1

Miss Meagher heads our ratings at 82.71 while sitting at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a notable disconnect that TrackWiz analysis flags as a potential overlay. A 9% career win rate is modest, but trainer Cynthia A. Kelley gets Antonio Fresu in the saddle, and Fresu is one of the sharper turf jockeys in California right now. At a mile on the grass against a wide and competitive field, Miss Meagher's rating edge is the kind of edge worth pressing.

place4Dea MatronaML 3/1

Dea Matrona is priced at 3/1 on the morning line for a reason — a 29% career win rate is outstanding, and trainer Peter Miller is a consistent winner at Del Mar. Kazushi Kimura gets the mount, and with a TrackWiz rating of 81.17, this one profiles as a horse that hits the board more often than not. If the pace gets hot in this big field, Dea Matrona's class should see her through to at least a place finish.

show7The White LadyML 5/2

The White Lady for Philip D'Amato at 5/2 brings a 20% career win rate and Umberto Rispoli up — that's a powerful trainer-jockey combination on the Del Mar turf. The 77.3 rating is third best in the field, and D'Amato's grass horses routinely run their number. Use this one confidently in trifectas and exactas as a horse that should be involved at the wire.

Race 7

12:12 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Two horses — Christel Clean and Pavel Is Appealing — tower over this one-mile dirt allowance field on the TrackWiz model, and a third horse at 12/1 adds a sneaky show-price angle.

win2Christel CleanML 5/2

Christel Clean tops the ratings at 87.81 and gets Joel Rosario, who is the kind of jockey that wins these races on ability alone. Trainer John W. Sadler is a Del Mar institution, and a 16% career win rate with an average speed figure of 56 — best in the race — makes this a horse that looks ready to put it all together. The 5/2 morning line is a fair price for what the numbers suggest is a clear top selection.

place4Pavel Is AppealingML 7/2

Pavel Is Appealing at 7/2 is only a few points behind the top pick on the ratings (84.6) and brings a sparkling 28% career win rate to the table. Umberto Rispoli handles the mount for Doug F. O'Neill, and this pairing is live in any race they enter together. An average speed figure of 56 matches the top pick stride for stride — this horse is fully capable of winning, and 7/2 may be the best price on the card for what you're getting.

show7TheresasilverlininML 12/1

Theresasilverlinin sits at 12/1 on the morning line but posts a 32% career win rate — that's the single best strike rate in this entire field, and it's a stat that shouldn't be ignored. Trainer Steve R. Knapp fits a horse that seems capable of producing a big effort at a price, and Emisael Jaramillo is capable of getting a ground-saving trip from that post. At 12/1, this is a live show play and a strong trifecta inclusion.

Race 8

12:42 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A twelve-horse maiden claiming field on the turf at 1 1/16 miles where High King leads on the TrackWiz model but Shapoval and Dr. Filkins keep this from being a one-horse race.

win5High KingML 5/2

High King heads the ratings at 84.93 and draws the 5/2 morning line for trainer Gary Stute, with Antonio Fresu taking the mount. In a maiden claiming field on the turf, where early pace often gets punished, High King's profile as a horse with a 55 average speed figure and a top-rated TrackWiz score suggests this one has the tools to handle the distance. Fresu's experience on the grass at Del Mar is a genuine asset in a tricky 1 1/16-mile setup.

place6ShapovalML 3/1

Shapoval at 3/1 for Peter Miller — one of the most active and successful trainers at the meet — draws Joel Rosario aboard, arguably the best jockey in North America on his day. A rating of 82.75 puts Shapoval within striking distance of the top pick, and Miller's grass horses at Del Mar routinely outrun their maiden tag. This is a horse that could easily flip the result with High King, so including both in exactas is smart.

show10Dr. FilkinsML 4/1

Dr. Filkins is the third wheel in this race at 4/1 with a rating of 79.13 — only a sliver behind Shapoval — and Juan J. Hernandez takes over for trainer Sean McCarthy. In a turf maiden with several first-timers scattered through the field, Dr. Filkins's rating puts this horse firmly among the logical placeholders at the wire. At 4/1, there's enough value to make this a solid exotic inclusion.

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Today's best free play is Tahini in Race 1, backed by our top rating of the free slate and near-perfect turf conditions. Sugar Reign and Farmer Tom give you two more chances on the dirt. For the complete 8-race breakdown — including our Miss Meagher value angle and full exotic strategies — the full card is waiting for subscribers. Go Premium and don't leave money on the table. Good luck out there.

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