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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — August 27, 2026

August 27, 20268 racesAll Del Mar picks

Del Mar delivers an 8-race Thursday card under overcast skies with temperatures hovering around 84°F — conditions that should keep the turf course playing true and help horses settle into a comfortable pace early. No scorching heat, no wind advisory, just a clean afternoon at one of the most scenic tracks in the country.

The card leans heavily on routes and mid-distance sprints with a nice mix of maiden fields and claiming company, giving handicappers plenty of angles to work with. Five of the eight races hit the turf, so if you've been tracking grass form lately, today's your day. Three free best bets get you started, and our full premium breakdown covers the rest.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Philip D'Amato sends out two runners in this maiden claimer on the turf, but it's his second-stringer who tops the TrackWiz ratings by a wide margin — creating a clear top pick with legitimate second-guessing potential from the morning-line favorite.

win7Silkie SeveiML 3/1

Silkie Sevei (No. 7) is the standout of this field by our ratings, posting an 87.08 — nearly 22 points clear of the next-best horse. Trained by Philip D'Amato, who consistently fires with first-time starters and maiden turf runners at Del Mar, she draws the services of Umberto Rispoli, one of the sharpest grass riders on the Southern California circuit. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here relative to the rating gap she holds over her rivals.

place5JasmineML 5/2

Jasmine (No. 5) is the public's choice at 5/2, and trainer Peter Eurton has a knack for getting maidens ready first off the claim or first out. Her TrackWiz rating of 65.37 ranks second in the field, and at a distance of 1 1/16 miles on turf, a closer profile could benefit from a pace that gets honest early.

show2CavesML 5/1

Caves (No. 2) is the stablemate to our top pick under D'Amato, so don't dismiss a barn that's firing with two arrows. Her rating of 60.08 ranks third, and Julien R. Leparoux — a seasoned grass specialist — gives her a legitimate chance to at least hit the board in a race with questions up and down the field.

Race 2

9:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A short five-horse maiden special weight on the dirt where the morning-line favorite isn't our top-rated horse — creating an interesting overlay situation with Doug O'Neill's runner sitting second on the toteboard but first in our model.

win3Luxor MagicML 7/2

Luxor Magic (No. 3) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 83.71 — a substantial gap over the rest of this modest MSW field. Trained by Doug O'Neill and ridden by Antonio Fresu, she's posted an average speed figure of 53 in her past work, but the model sees something the morning line undervalues at 7/2. In a thin five-horse field on dirt, the pace scenario should be manageable and a horse with this kind of rating edge gets the nod confidently.

place2Sudden ImpactML 7/5

Sudden Impact (No. 2) is the lukewarm public favorite at 7/5 under trainer Michael W. McCarthy and jockey Umberto Rispoli — a sharp duo at Del Mar. No published average speed figure on record, which suggests she may be first out or lightly raced, but McCarthy debut runners often hit the board and the 59.33 rating keeps her squarely in the place conversation.

show5Ms LiuML 3/1

Ms Liu (No. 5) at 3/1 under Juan J. Hernandez and trainer Jena M. Antonucci gives this ticket some east-coast pedigree and tactical intrigue. Her rating of 56.67 and average speed of 53 are competitive for the level, and in a race this small, three horses with legitimate ratings could easily sweep the board — she rounds out the show spot nicely.

Race 3

10:01 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A sprawling 13-horse maiden field on the five-furlong turf course is a pace handicapper's puzzle — with several first-time starters from big barns including two from Bob Baffert and three from Jeff Mullins making the outcome genuinely unpredictable.

win6Repo ManML 3/1

Repo Man (No. 6) leads our ratings in this race at 56.67 and goes for trainer Michael W. McCarthy paired with Umberto Rispoli — a combination that consistently shows up in the winner's circle at Del Mar. At 3/1, he's fairly priced and sits at the top of a group of first-out runners where edge is hard to find, making any rating advantage meaningful. In a five-furlong turf sprint where speed out of the gate matters, a McCarthy runner gets the benefit of the doubt.

place5San MoritzML 7/2

San Moritz (No. 5) represents the Baffert barn at 7/2 with Drayden Van Dyke up — a pairing that commands respect in any maiden field. The 55.83 rating puts him just a tick behind Repo Man, and Baffert's debut runners on the turf at Del Mar have historically drawn sharp public attention for good reason.

show2HoaxerML 4/1

Hoaxer (No. 2) is the second Baffert runner in the race with Juan J. Hernandez taking the mount at 4/1 on the morning line. A 55.0 rating matches San Moritz closely, and having two Baffert runners in the same race opens the door for a cross-entry situation that complicates pace reads — but Hoaxer's draw inside gives him a clean look at the short five-furlong trip.

Our three free races all sit on the front end of the card and offer a solid range of bet types to kick the day off. Silkie Sevei opens the show in a maiden claimer going 1 1/16 miles on the turf — a classic spot for a horse with route breeding to flash early form. In Race 2, Luxor Magic heads a maiden special weight field going one mile on the dirt, and our TrackWiz rating of 83.71 puts him clear of the field on a dirt surface that tends to reward pace-pressing types. Then Repo Man closes out the free card in a short 5-furlong turf sprint in Race 3 — a tricky format, but our analysis found enough to make him the call at 3/1 on the morning line.

The turf-heavy nature of today's free races means grass pedigree and recent turf form are the lenses we're using. Horses stretching out on grass for the first time with strong sire stats are worth a close look in both Races 1 and 3. Keep an eye on the turf course surface as you head into the afternoon — any unexpected moisture from morning preparation could shift things slightly.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

This six-and-a-half furlong dirt claimer is essentially a one-horse race on paper — Liam Smith's rating and win percentage dwarf the competition, though the 8/5 morning line will make him a tough overlay to beat.

win5Liam SmithML 8/5

Liam Smith (No. 5) is the class of this field in every metric we track — an 89.12 TrackWiz rating and a 50% career win rate are figures you almost never see in a claiming race. Trainer Jeff Mullins sends him out with Emisael Jaramillo aboard, and the 6.5-furlong dirt sprint plays right into a pressing or stalking trip where Liam Smith can sit off early pace and pounce. At 8/5, you're not getting value, but fading this kind of dominance in exotics is a mistake.

place1L RankinML 8/1

L Rankin (No. 1) is our value play at 8/1 on the morning line — a rating of 69.29 and a 16% career win rate make her more than capable of hitting the board behind the heavy favorite. Peter Miller's barn is in good form at this meet, and Ricardo Gonzalez from the rail could steal a clear path on the first turn in a sprint where early position often determines the exacta.

show6Sammy DavisML 5/1

Sammy Davis (No. 6) brings a 60.81 rating and a 28% career win rate to the table for John W. Sadler and Joel Rosario — a formidable trainer-jockey combo who know how to place horses in spots they can win. The 5/1 morning line offers solid show value, and Rosario's ability to find position in a crowded stretch run keeps this horse in the exotic mix.

Race 5

11:03 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Two horses separate themselves from the field in this 1 1/16-mile maiden claimer on the turf — but the rest of the lineup is tight enough that pace and post position could scramble the outcome on the grass.

win4Jet Black JewelML 3/1

Jet Black Jewel (No. 4) carries our top rating of 81.46 in this turf maiden claimer, and trainer Robert B. Hess Jr. is no stranger to getting maidens ready for a grass route. Juan J. Hernandez takes the mount at the generous morning-line price of 3/1 — solid value for the top-rated runner. The 1 1/16-mile turf trip typically sets up for closers, and if Jet Black Jewel can sit mid-pack and make one powerful run, she looks the part.

place5Golden HopeML 7/2

Golden Hope (No. 5) is right behind her in our model with a 71.09 rating and gets Umberto Rispoli, one of the finest turf jockeys in California, for trainer Vladimir Cerin. At 7/2, she profiles as a natural stalker who could pick up the pieces if the pace scenario plays out, and Rispoli's ability to get horses into rhythm on the turf makes her a logical place selection.

show2Velvet ReignML 4/1

Velvet Reign (No. 2) at 4/1 under Doug O'Neill and Antonio Fresu posts a 55.0 rating — squarely in the competitive middle of this field. O'Neill has the volume and the angles at Del Mar, and in a race where the top two are being asked to prove themselves on the grass, a third runner with clean lines and a workable post could sneak into the exotics.

Race 6

11:34 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse dirt claiming sprint where the top TrackWiz rating and the best morning-line odds don't belong to the same horse — setting up a potential overlay on the wire-to-wire type while a stablemate lurks as a live secondary threat.

win1The Big CheeseolaML 5/1

The Big Cheeseola (No. 1) leads the field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and gets Kazushi Kimura from the rail — ideal in a six-furlong dirt sprint where the inside post can be a launching pad. Trained by Jesus J. Uranga, she owns a 15% career win rate, which is respectable at this level, and that rating gap over most of the field is hard to ignore. At 5/1, she's arguably the best value on the board given how far ahead our model has her.

place9No More Ding DongsML 6/1

No More Ding Dongs (No. 9) is a Uranga stablemate to our top pick and rates out at 74.05 — second in the field — with Ricardo S. Ramirez riding at 6/1. Both Uranga runners in the same race is a barn double worth noting, and if the pace gets heated up front, this horse could be sitting on a big closing bid from the outside post.

show2Ya'll ComeML 7/2

Ya'll Come (No. 2) packs a 21% career win rate and a 72.94 TrackWiz rating for trainer Ian Kruljac, with Armando Ayuso navigating from the two hole. The 7/2 morning line is the shortest in the race outside of the longshots, but at six furlongs on dirt, a horse with speed and a proven record of winning has show value in any scenario.

Race 7

12:05 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A competitive starter optional claimer on the turf at 1 1/16 miles features a pair of horses separated by less than three points at the top of our ratings — and both offer legitimate win potential, making the exacta box look very appealing.

win8LanillaML 7/2

Lanilla (No. 8) sits atop our model at 86.35 with Joel Rosario in the irons for Vladimir Cerin — a combination with real firepower on the Del Mar turf. She carries a 20% career win rate and an average speed of 54, consistent with the demands of this level and distance. At 7/2 on the morning line, Rosario's tactical intelligence in a route race gives her the edge over a deep field of turf horses.

place1WinikaML 5/1

Winika (No. 1) is separated from Lanilla by just three points at 83.35 and brings a 20% career win rate of his own for Jeff Mullins, with Juan J. Hernandez in the saddle. The rail draw in a grass route can be a blessing or a curse depending on early pace, but Mullins horses are typically well-placed and Hernandez rarely gets trapped in traffic. At 5/1, this is a genuine win threat dressing up as a place pick.

show9RehearsalML 5/1

Rehearsal (No. 9) checks in at 72.76 for Philip D'Amato and Antonio Fresu at 5/1 — a trainer who has a sterling reputation on the Del Mar turf. The 10% career win rate is modest, but in a starter optional claiming event where horses are being protected from the drop, Rehearsal's consistent speed figures of 55 keep him firmly in the show conversation and the exacta/trifecta mix.

Race 8

12:36 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open ten-horse dirt mile claiming race where five horses rate within 18 points of each other — the kind of full-field scramble where pace will be king and an honest price could easily land in the winner's circle.

win6Mio BambinoML 7/2

Mio Bambino (No. 6) leads the TrackWiz model at 85.12 and gets the services of Joel Rosario — as decorated a jockey as you'll find in the paddock on any given day. Trained by Dean Pederson and going at 7/2 on the morning line, his 12% career win rate is on the modest side, but the rating gap over most of this field is substantial, and a mile on dirt with Rosario navigating is a setup that suits a class horse.

place3Bowtie BoysML 6/1

Bowtie Boys (No. 3) rates out at 82.71 for trainer Tim Yakteen and Kazushi Kimura — just three points behind our top pick. His 13% career win rate is competitive for a claimer, and at 6/1 on the morning line he offers real overlay value if the pace collapses in the stretch. Yakteen horses often improve sharply off a layoff or a class drop, making the place price here especially interesting.

show5Stay for the BoomML 8/1

Stay for the Boom (No. 5) brings a 20% career win rate and a 71.16 rating for trainer Christopher Davis with Juan J. Hernandez aboard. At 8/1 he's a legitimate price play — his average speed of 55 matches the top runners in this field, and in a ten-horse field where pace could get honest early, a closer with a solid win percentage can steal a piece right at the wire.

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Eight races, five on the turf, and a handful of horses with genuine upside at playable odds — it's a solid Thursday at Del Mar. Start with Silkie Sevei, Luxor Magic, and Repo Man on the free side, and let the conditions guide you early. Subscribers get the complete picture including Liam Smith, The Big Cheeseola, and our full exotic ticket breakdowns. Full analysis is waiting at /pricing — see you at the windows.

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