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Free Del Mar Picks & Predictions — August 2, 2026
Sunday at Del Mar doesn't get much better than this. Clear skies, 80 degrees, a cool ocean breeze rolling off the Pacific — the kind of afternoon that makes you remember why this track bills itself as "Where the Turf Meets the Surf." Conditions are about as close to ideal as you'll find anywhere in the country right now.
We've got a full 10-race card to dig into, mixing maiden fields, allowance company, claiming ranks, and a stakes race that gives the afternoon a genuine centerpiece. The surface split is interesting today — five races on the dirt, four on the turf, and one of those turf routes stretching out to 1 1/16 miles in Race 8. Plenty of angles to work from every direction.
Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers today. The premium full-card breakdown — covering Races 4 through 10 — is available to subscribers. Let's get into it.
3 Free Races at Del Mar
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt
A maiden special weight mile on dirt with two Baffert runners splitting the market and a Mark Glatt longshot sitting atop the TrackWiz ratings — the board says favorites, but the numbers say something different.
Essos draws our top rating at 60.04 — the highest in the field — despite going off at 4/1 on the morning line, which makes this a legitimate overlay if the price holds. Joel Rosario is one of the sharpest riders in the country and his presence in the irons for Mark Glatt is a meaningful combination in a maiden special weight. The average speed figure of 54 is modest but competitive in this spot, and with Rosario likely rating off any early pace pressure, this horse should get a clean trip around one mile on the dirt.
Collmus is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and comes from the powerful Baffert barn, which gives any first-timer instant credibility at this level. No average speed figure is listed, which often means a debut runner whose workouts have impressed connections enough to send them out at MSW level — Baffert doesn't run maiden claimers with horses he believes in. Juan J. Hernandez gets the call and he knows how to rate a horse on debut, so a place finish at minimum feels like a reasonable expectation.
Newton is the other Baffert horse in the field at 2/1 on the morning line, giving the barn a strong one-two punch. With an average speed figure of 55 — marginally better than Essos — Newton is far from outclassed, and Emisael Jaramillo riding for Baffert is always a live ticket. If the two Baffert horses split votes in the wagering, Newton could offer a shade of value in the show pool while still hitting the board.
Race 2
Maiden Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
Five and a half furlongs for maiden optional claimers on dirt, with several first-time-out types and a handful of experienced runners — the pace could get hot early and set up for a closer.
Liberty N Justice tops our ratings at 56.67 and draws the 3/1 morning line, making her our top selection in a wide-open affair. Trainer George Papaprodromou has a solid reputation for placing horses in the right spots, and Antonio Fresu in the saddle is a capable handler in sprint situations. With no average speed figure listed — suggesting a debut or limited lines — the rating is driven by workouts and overall profiling, and this filly lands at the top of the TrackWiz model heading into the gate.
Thebeachisback is right behind in the ratings at 55.83, going off at 7/2 under trainer Michael W. McCarthy — a conditioner who shows up consistently at Del Mar each summer. No average speed on record points to a horse whose best work may still be ahead of her, and Ricardo Gonzalez is a reliable hand for a first or second start. If Liberty N Justice gets the front, Thebeachisback could find a comfortable stalking position and be there late.
Avalon Rose has the highest recorded average speed figure among horses with a listed number at 54, and trainer Robert B. Hess Jr. keeps runners fit and ready between starts. At 5/1 on the morning line, she offers a measure of value in the show pool and across the board, and Julien Leparoux is one of the smoothest sprint riders in Southern California. She may not have the upside of the top two, but she's a solid fit for exotics.
Race 3
Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf
Five furlongs on the turf in an allowance optional claiming field loaded with seasoned runners — the pace figures to be honest, and the TrackWiz model is sky-high on an overlooked price horse sitting right off the rail.
No Cap is our pick and it's not particularly close — her TrackWiz rating of 82.71 is far and away the top mark in this field, yet she goes off at 6/1 on the morning line. That's a significant disconnect. She's won 14% of her career starts and averages a 57 speed figure, which matches the fastest horses in this field on that metric. Emisael Jaramillo aboard for trainer Brian Koriner is a functional combination, and on a five-furlong turf sprint where pace shapes are fluid, a horse with this kind of rating edge at a double-digit morning line is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz looks for.
Miss Mandalay is our place horse and brings a strong 18% career win rate, which on a sample of turf starts is a meaningful number. Joel Rosario, among the elite turf riders in North America, gets the mount for Robert Hess Jr., and that combination regularly produces results at this level. Her TrackWiz rating of 60.36 is third in the field and her 8/1 morning line makes her an excellent place and exacta target behind No Cap.
Dial a Friend is fascinating — a 47% career win rate is extraordinary regardless of sample size, and that type of horse tends to find ways to be competitive. Trainer Jesus Mendoza keeps this one sharp, and at 8/1 on the morning line with no average speed figure available to the public, she carries some mystery that could translate to overlay value in the exotics. Her TrackWiz score of 56.27 is third among the remaining field and makes her a legitimate show play.
Our free analysis covers the first three races on the card, and there's already some meat here. Race 1 is a mile maiden special weight on dirt where Essos draws our top rating despite going off at 4/1 on the morning line — that kind of price in a soft maiden field is a spot TrackWiz analysis loves to target. In Race 2, Liberty N Justice comes in as the 3/1 morning-line choice in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden optional claimer, a distance that should suit a pressing style on what figures to be a sound dirt surface today. Then we move to the turf for Race 3, an allowance optional claimer at five furlongs where No Cap jumps out with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating at a very workable 6/1 — the kind of number that gets our attention on the short turf course.
The common thread across these early races: the pace scenarios set up cleanly, and all three of our top picks profile as horses that can take a position and sustain it rather than needing a perfect trip. On a clear, fast day at Del Mar, that matters.
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A gorgeous day at Del Mar, a stakes race on the dirt, and legitimate value scattered across both surfaces — this is a card worth playing top to bottom. Essos, Liberty N Justice, and No Cap headline the free selections, while the premium card unpacks everything from Race 4 onward, including our best exotic structures for the afternoon. Good luck out there — and as always, manage your bankroll and enjoy the races.