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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — July 31, 2026

July 31, 20268 racesAll Del Mar picks

It's a gorgeous Friday at Del Mar — partly cloudy, 80°F, and the kind of afternoon that makes you remember why they call this place Where the Turf Meets the Surf. Eight races are on the board today, splitting evenly between turf and dirt, and the card has a little something for every kind of player.

Conditions look favorable across both surfaces. The turf courses should be playing true under mild temperatures, and the dirt strip figures to be in good shape — important context when evaluating pace scenarios across this card. Three of today's eight races are turf sprints or routes, so if you've been tracking grass form this summer meet, today is your day to put it to work.

The card features a stakes race in Race 7 as the marquee event, a pair of maiden races that could throw up some value, and a deep allowance optional claiming in Race 4 that shapes up as one of the stronger fields we've seen at Del Mar this week. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open 5-furlong turf sprint where the morning line favorite isn't our top-rated horse — TrackWiz numbers flip the script and point to a 6/1 overlay leading this field.

win2Not A SinnerML 6/1

Not A Sinner tops our TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 — the highest mark in the field by a clear margin over the rest of the contenders. Despite a modest 10% career win rate, the rating suggests this horse is better than that number implies, likely pointing to a profile that runs well without always closing the deal. Simon Callaghan's barn has a knack for placing horses in spots where they can fire, and Antonio Fresu gets the call on a 5-furlong turf sprint that suits a quick-twitch type. At 6/1 on the morning line, this is exactly the kind of overlay our model is designed to uncover.

place7Burning RubberML 6/1

Burning Rubber checks in with a 76.36 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate — solid credentials for a horse sitting at 6/1. Sean McCarthy sends this one out with Juan J. Hernandez up, and on a short 5-furlong turf course where tactical speed is currency, this runner has the profile to be right there at the wire. A place ticket at 6/1 offers real value if the win pick beats this one to the line.

show5Liam SmithML 5/2

Liam Smith is the morning line second choice at 5/2, and the 66% career win rate is the standout stat in this entire field — nobody else is close to that figure. Jeff Mullins conditions a horse that clearly knows how to win, and while our rating of 76.17 puts it third behind Not A Sinner and Burning Rubber, that win percentage provides a strong floor. Ideal for show tickets and the bottom leg of exacta/trifecta combinations.

Race 2

9:31 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The pace scenario on this 5.5-furlong dirt claimer looks contested up front, which could set the table nicely for a closer — and our top-rated runner sits near the top of the TrackWiz board with a big edge over the morning line favorite.

win4Tate BatzML 5/1

Tate Batz owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.17 — a full ten points clear of the next competitor — while going postward at a generous 5/1 morning line. The Doug O'Neill barn is a formidable outfit at Del Mar, and pairing this horse with Emisael Jaramillo, who rides with confidence on the front end, could mean a wire-to-wire effort on this short sprint. A 16% career win rate might look modest, but the raw rating says this horse is operating at a class level above what this field offers.

place6Southern AntonML 8/1

Southern Anton at 8/1 is one of the better value plays on the card — a TrackWiz rating of 78.40 with a 20% career win rate in a spot where Tim McCanna ships in a live runner that the crowd is likely to underbet. The average speed figure of 55 is right in line with the pace of this race, and Tiago Josue Pereira has the experience to position this horse in a stalking trip. A place ticket here at morning line 8/1 is the kind of play that makes exactas pay.

show7My KatML 7/2

My Kat is the 7/2 morning line third choice and carries a solid 77.53 TrackWiz rating alongside a 23% career win rate — respectable numbers in this claiming field. George Papaprodromou is a sharp trainer who puts his horses in positions to succeed, and Cesar Belmont gets the mount on a horse whose average speed figure of 55 matches up well with the projected pace. Use confidently across all exotic wagering combinations.

Race 3

10:02 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A full field of maidens going 5 furlongs on the turf makes this one of the trickiest puzzles on the card — first-time starters dominate the entries, so trainer patterns and workout buzz carry extra weight here.

win9VantaML 5/2

Vanta draws the top TrackWiz rating at 57.50 and gets the services of Umberto Rispoli, one of the sharper turf riders on the West Coast circuit. Jeff Mullins is a consistent trainer in maiden turf sprints, and this barn hits at a solid clip when debuting first-time starters on grass. The 5/2 morning line makes this the public's choice, but the TrackWiz number backs it up — this one deserves to be on top of your tickets.

place2Her Names CharlieML 3/1

Her Names Charlie is the one horse in this field who shows a meaningful average speed figure — an encouraging 58, the highest among runners who have any recorded work. Ryan Hanson conditions this one for Edwin A. Maldonado, and the 3/1 morning line suggests plenty of market respect. For a first-time turf starter, an already-established speed number at this distance is a meaningful edge over the debut runners who haven't shown us anything yet.

show6Golden BeeML 4/1

Golden Bee comes in at 4/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 55.00 and a trainer in Dan Blacker who works well with lightly raced turf types. Julien Leparoux is one of the most accomplished grass riders in California, and his presence in the irons on a 4/1 shot in a maiden turf sprint is a flag worth noting. This one fits naturally in the show slot and anchors the bottom of your trifecta boxes.

Our three free best bets today span the opening half of the card and cover both surfaces. In Race 1, Not A Sinner catches our eye at a juicy 6/1 morning line in a Starter Optional Claiming sprint on the turf — that's the kind of overlay we look for when the public under-bets a horse with legitimate form. Race 2 shifts us over to the dirt for a 5½-furlong Claiming sprint, where Tate Batz at 5/1 earned our highest TrackWiz rating among the free races at 84.17. And in Race 3, maiden turf sprinters are always a puzzle, but Vanta stands out as our top pick off a manageable 5/2 morning line.

One theme tying these free picks together: all three figures to benefit from a straightforward pace scenario. On a day when the turf is playing fair and the dirt strip is in solid shape, horses with clean early trips and the ability to settle off a honest pace are well-positioned. Tate Batz and Not A Sinner both profile as stalker types who can pounce in the stretch — and that's exactly the pace setup our analysis projects in their respective races.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:32 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Bob Baffert sends out the morning line chalk who also tops the TrackWiz board, but a pair of strong alternatives lurking at longer prices means the exotics could offer real value in this allowance optional claimer.

win3HejaziML 7/5

Hejazi is the standout of the race at a 89.42 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark we've assigned to any horse on today's card — and the Baffert barn rarely misses when they point a horse at a spot this specific. The 7/5 morning line reflects public confidence, and while the 20% career win rate might raise eyebrows, the raw speed and quality figures here suggest this runner is peaking at the right time. Juan J. Hernandez gets the call, a rider who thrives on front-running types going six furlongs on dirt, and the pace setup at this distance favors whoever can hold a clear early lead.

place1Simple SongML 5/1

Simple Song is a sneaky interesting place play at 5/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 83.50 and a career win rate of 33% make this horse the most accomplished winner in the field by percentage. Mark Glatt conditions runners that consistently fire fresh, and Kazushi Kimura has been sharp all meet. If anything compromises Hejazi early, Simple Song has the raw numbers to capitalize and hit the board.

show5March of TimeML 6/1

March of Time rounds out the Baffert one-two punch with a 76.77 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 50% career win rate — the joint-best in the field alongside Captivator. Joel Rosario takes the mount, a rider of the highest caliber who extracts every bit of talent from a capable horse. This one is a natural show play and a strong inclusion in exacta part-wheels underneath Hejazi.

Race 5

11:02 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Three scratches trim the maiden claiming field to a manageable size, and a pair of horses with notably higher TrackWiz ratings than the morning line suggests emerge as strong plays at attractive prices.

win13Dame It DaniML 8/1

Dame It Dani tops our TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 despite heading to the gate at 8/1 — that's a meaningful disconnect between public perception and model output. Trained by Alfredo P. Marquez and ridden by Emisael Jaramillo, this filly has an average speed figure of 53 that holds up fine against this maiden claiming group. In a field where no horse has broken their maiden yet, the highest rating on the board at generous odds is exactly the play our model targets.

place3Dancing With ShariML 6/1

Dancing With Shari is nearly as strong at 79.32 on the TrackWiz scale while going off at 6/1 — a hair's breadth behind Dame It Dani in our ratings and a legitimate threat to reverse the order. Kyle Frey rides for Tim McCanna, a trainer who places horses well in maiden claiming company at this circuit. With both top-rated runners at value prices, an exacta combining the two is very much worth constructing.

show8Blame It On AbbyML 4/1

Blame It On Abby brings the Peter Miller stable — one of California's most consistent outfits in maiden events — and the highest TrackWiz rating among the morning line top three at 58.06. Joel Rosario is the top jockey booking in the race, and his presence at 4/1 on a maiden claimer rarely goes unnoticed. Use in the show spot of trifectas and as the base of exacta part-wheels.

Race 6

11:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Over a mile and a sixteenth on Del Mar's grass course, this claiming race features a dramatic ratings gap between our top pick and the rest of the field — Tribal stands out as one of the cleaner plays on the afternoon.

win8TribalML 4/1

Tribal owns an 85.62 TrackWiz rating, which is more than 23 points clear of the second-ranked horse in this field — an enormous separation that rarely gets built up without a meaningful form edge. Antonio Fresu rides for Doug O'Neill, and this barn consistently fires live shots in turf routes at Del Mar. The 4/1 morning line feels generous given the rating gap, and the average speed figure of 55 is comfortably competitive at this class level. This is among our strongest win opinions on today's card.

place1Sand BaggerML 5/1

Sand Bagger slots in as our place selection with a 76.25 TrackWiz rating and Tyler Baze in the irons — a rider who knows every inch of Del Mar's turf course. The 5/1 morning line offers solid value for a horse whose career profile in turf routes gives it the profile of a consistent exacta threat. Gary Stute keeps his horses fit, and at a mile and a sixteenth, a stalking trip from the rail could set up a strong late bid.

show9KokosanML 3/1

Kokosan draws the rail-adjacent post in a way that keeps Joel Rosario in clean air, and a 62.02 TrackWiz rating alongside John Sadler's patient turf routing approach is a compelling show-ticket argument. The 3/1 morning line makes this one of the more straightforward show plays on the card, and Sadler's horses at Del Mar on turf are perennially dangerous. Include in all tri/super combinations underneath Tribal.

Race 7

12:02 AM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

A deep stakes field at 7 furlongs on dirt features a wide-open pace scenario and a pair of horses with unblemished win records — but our model points emphatically to a different runner as the one to beat.

win10Ocean BearML 5/1

Ocean Bear tops the TrackWiz board at 84.17 and carries an outstanding 75% career win rate — three wins from four starts, a record that speaks to a horse who runs with purpose and doesn't waste trips. Umberto Rispoli is a natural fit on a horse that likely wants to press the pace in a seven-furlong dirt stakes, and George Papaprodromou is one of the sharper stakes conditioners on the Southern California circuit. At 5/1 on the morning line, our model views this as a genuine overlay in a race the public may be splitting between a few different win candidates.

place3King's RideML 10/1

King's Ride at 10/1 is our value play for place — a 66.03 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate in a stakes field suggests this horse is good enough to hit the board at a price. Craig Anthony Lewis conditions a runner that Juan J. Hernandez will likely position in a comfortable stalking spot, setting up a strong finish in the final furlong. If the pace gets contested up front, closers like King's Ride become extremely relevant.

show11Start the RideML 4/1

Start the Ride comes in at 4/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 63.91 and a 28% career win rate — the numbers aren't as flashy as the top two picks, but Dan Blacker's horse under Armando Ayuso has the tactical profile to work a trip and get a share. In a stakes race with multiple horses sporting perfect win records and short prices, the exotics can generate real value when you go deeper into the field for the third slot. This one is a solid trifecta inclusion.

Race 8

12:32 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A sprawling maiden turf mile draws a large field full of firsters and lightly raced runners, with several horses lacking jockey assignments — our picks lean on the best-rated contenders with confirmed mounts and form indicators.

win7Marla HoochML 5/1

Marla Hooch sits at 76.28 on the TrackWiz scale — the highest rating among horses with confirmed jockey assignments — and draws Armando Ayuso for the Philip D'Amato barn, one of the premier turf operations in California. An average speed figure of 56 is among the top marks in the field, and D'Amato's horses consistently run their best on Del Mar's turf course, particularly at a mile. The 5/1 morning line gives you a legitimate shot at a real return on what we consider the class of this field.

place12Maggles McGeeML EVN

Maggles McGee carries the highest overall TrackWiz rating in the race at 73.09, and despite the EVN morning line listing, the model numbers make a compelling case for at minimum a top-two finish. The horse shows an average speed figure of 55, consistent with the projected pace of this maiden turf mile. No jockey is listed yet, so confirmation of the mount before post time is worth checking in the TrackWiz app — a strong rider booking here would significantly boost confidence.

show6VolcanologistML 8/1

Volcanologist checks in at 62.34 on the TrackWiz scale — third-highest in the field — with Ricardo Gonzalez aboard for Andy Mathis. An average speed figure of 55 and an 8/1 morning line make this one of the sneakier value plays in the race for show tickets and trifecta construction. Mathis doesn't always bring a lot of horses to Del Mar, which makes each starter worth taking seriously when he does.

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Today's Del Mar card is well worth your attention from gate to wire. Our free best bets — Not A Sinner (R1), Tate Batz (R2), and Vanta (R3) — give every reader a solid starting point. For the stakes race, the value maiden plays, and our complete exotic ticket strategy across Races 4–8, the full breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Good luck today, and may the turf be with you.

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