Del Mar Picks & Predictions — July 23, 2026
It's a picture-perfect Thursday at Del Mar — 80 degrees, clear skies, and the Pacific breeze doing its thing along the stretch. Eight races are on the card today, mixing dirt sprints, turf routes, and everything in between, which means the surface-switching angles are very much in play for sharp bettors.
The card opens with a trio of claiming and maiden races that feature some legitimate overlay potential — including a morning-line 8/1 shot that our models are genuinely excited about. As the afternoon deepens, the class level climbs into allowance territory on both the turf and the dirt, where the TrackWiz ratings are pointing to a couple of standout performances in the making.
Eight races, three free previews, and five premium deep-dives. Let's get into it.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
A claiming sprint with a clear TrackWiz rating edge at the top, but the morning line disagrees — the public will side with the favorite while our model sees value elsewhere in the field.
Stanford Dropout (No. 6) earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 79.79 and offers genuine value at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a significant disconnect worth exploiting. Trainer Brian Koriner sends this horse out with a 25% career win rate in the connections, suggesting a horse that knows how to close the deal. At 5½ furlongs on the dirt, pace will be premium early, and if Stanford Dropout can land a clean trip in the first turn, the late kick figures to be lethal. Don't let the morning line fool you — our model likes this price.
Sendit Mo (No. 5) is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 for a reason — a 78.9 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate back up the public money. Doug O'Neill conditions this one, and the barn is active and sharp on this card. The place slot is likely the safest expectation here given the rating edge, but the short price makes the win bet a tough sell compared to the value on Stanford Dropout.
Joker Went Wild (No. 1) checks in with the third-best rating in the field at 71.52 and holds the rail post — a useful position in a short sprint where early positioning matters. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo is a solid pilot, and with an average speed figure of 56, this horse compares favorably on raw pace. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's modest value here as a show hedge in exactas and trifectas.
Race 2
Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf
A maiden turf sprint packed with first-time starters and lightly raced types, making this a wide-open guessing game — but one horse separates itself significantly on our ratings scale.
Bogarts Bucchero (No. 5) is the standout in this maiden turf field with a dominant TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — nearly 34 points clear of the next closest horse. Trainer Doug O'Neill puts Emisael Jaramillo up, a pairing that knows how to fire fresh horses on the turf at Del Mar. At 3/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse this clearly superior on our model, and in a field of firsters and maiden types, that rating gap is hard to ignore. This is a confident top selection.
Parker's Candy (No. 2) earns the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 53.33, with Julien Leparoux — one of the best turf riders in the country — in the irons for the Jeff Mullins barn. Leparoux's turf pedigree on the West Coast is a real asset in a 5-furlong maiden sprint where pace and positioning are everything. At 5/1, there's some place value here if Bogarts Bucchero has company up front.
Fuzzy Stare (No. 7) is a 10/1 shot worth including in exotics, matching Parker's Candy on the TrackWiz rating at 52.43 and showing a competitive average speed figure of 55. The Isidro Tamayo barn is quietly capable, and Kyle Frey gives this one a fighting chance in a wide-open maiden field. At double digits on the morning line, a small show investment or trifecta inclusion makes sense.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt
Maiden claimers with mostly first-time starters — minimal form to dissect, so our ratings model and the handful of horses with speed figures on the board become the primary tools.
Shemakesmemad (No. 9) tops the field with the best TrackWiz rating at 56.67 and is one of just two horses in this field showing a meaningful average speed figure — posting a 53 in prior work. Trainer Steven Miyadi sends Antonio Fresu up from the outside post, and at 3/1 on the morning line, the public is already on board. In a maiden claimer with this many blanks in the past performances, the horse with an actual speed figure has a significant edge.
Please Behave (No. 3) is right behind the top pick on our ratings at 55.0, and importantly, also shows an average speed figure of 54 — meaning this horse has race experience to draw on. Henry Reynoso Lopez gets the call for Felix Gonzalez, and at 4/1, there's decent place value. The proximity to the top-rated horse suggests this one should be in the mix at the wire.
Blondys Forza (No. 4) matches several horses in the field on the TrackWiz scale at 53.33, but the 5/1 morning line gives this Hector Berrios-Paula Capestro combo a small edge in terms of price-to-rating ratio. With no speed figure to evaluate, this is a projection play, but the morning line respects it enough to include in show betting and multi-race wagers.
The first three races are open to all TrackWiz readers, and they're worth your full attention. Stanford Dropout (Race 1, Dirt, 5½ furlongs) is the headliner of the free card — an 8/1 morning liner sitting on a TrackWiz rating of 79.79, which tells us the oddsmakers may be sleeping on this one. Value plays like this in short-field claiming sprints on a fast dirt track are exactly where overlays get cashed. Meanwhile, Bogarts Bucchero goes in Race 2 on the turf with an 87.08 rating and 3/1 odds — that's a strong number at a fair price. Shemakesmemad rounds out the free picks in Race 3, another maiden claiming sprint on the dirt where pedigree and pace shape will matter.
One theme connecting today's early dirt races: clear conditions and a dry track at Del Mar tend to favor horses with early foot in sprint distances. Keep that bias in mind as you build your tickets.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line for today: Stanford Dropout is the longshot angle to watch in Race 1, Bogarts Bucchero looks like a solid play at a fair price in Race 2, and Pokerknightatvees is the card's top-rated horse at 88.54 — a name to build your late-race tickets around. It's a full, interesting card under ideal conditions at one of America's best tracks. Subscribe for the complete breakdown at TrackWiz Premium, and good luck at the windows today.