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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — July 23, 2026

July 23, 20268 racesAll Del Mar picks

This card ran on July 23, 2026.

Best bets at Del Mar, July 23, 2026

Race 16Stanford DropoutML 8/15:00 PM EDT

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It's a picture-perfect Thursday at Del Mar — 80 degrees, clear skies, and the Pacific breeze doing its thing along the stretch. Eight races are on the card today, mixing dirt sprints, turf routes, and everything in between, which means the surface-switching angles are very much in play for sharp bettors.

The card opens with a trio of claiming and maiden races that feature some legitimate overlay potential — including a morning-line 8/1 shot that our models are genuinely excited about. As the afternoon deepens, the class level climbs into allowance territory on both the turf and the dirt, where the TrackWiz ratings are pointing to a couple of standout performances in the making.

Eight races, three free previews, and five premium deep-dives. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint with a clear TrackWiz rating edge at the top, but the morning line disagrees — the public will side with the favorite while our model sees value elsewhere in the field.

win6Stanford DropoutML 8/1

Stanford Dropout (No. 6) earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 79.79 and offers genuine value at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a significant disconnect worth exploiting. Trainer Brian Koriner sends this horse out with a 25% career win rate in the connections, suggesting a horse that knows how to close the deal. At 5½ furlongs on the dirt, pace will be premium early, and if Stanford Dropout can land a clean trip in the first turn, the late kick figures to be lethal. Don't let the morning line fool you — our model likes this price.

place5Sendit MoML 8/5

Sendit Mo (No. 5) is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 for a reason — a 78.9 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate back up the public money. Doug O'Neill conditions this one, and the barn is active and sharp on this card. The place slot is likely the safest expectation here given the rating edge, but the short price makes the win bet a tough sell compared to the value on Stanford Dropout.

show1Joker Went WildML 7/2

Joker Went Wild (No. 1) checks in with the third-best rating in the field at 71.52 and holds the rail post — a useful position in a short sprint where early positioning matters. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo is a solid pilot, and with an average speed figure of 56, this horse compares favorably on raw pace. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's modest value here as a show hedge in exactas and trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

5:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A maiden turf sprint packed with first-time starters and lightly raced types, making this a wide-open guessing game — but one horse separates itself significantly on our ratings scale.

win5Bogarts BuccheroML 3/1

Bogarts Bucchero (No. 5) is the standout in this maiden turf field with a dominant TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — nearly 34 points clear of the next closest horse. Trainer Doug O'Neill puts Emisael Jaramillo up, a pairing that knows how to fire fresh horses on the turf at Del Mar. At 3/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse this clearly superior on our model, and in a field of firsters and maiden types, that rating gap is hard to ignore. This is a confident top selection.

place2Parker's CandyML 5/1

Parker's Candy (No. 2) earns the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 53.33, with Julien Leparoux — one of the best turf riders in the country — in the irons for the Jeff Mullins barn. Leparoux's turf pedigree on the West Coast is a real asset in a 5-furlong maiden sprint where pace and positioning are everything. At 5/1, there's some place value here if Bogarts Bucchero has company up front.

show7Fuzzy StareML 10/1

Fuzzy Stare (No. 7) is a 10/1 shot worth including in exotics, matching Parker's Candy on the TrackWiz rating at 52.43 and showing a competitive average speed figure of 55. The Isidro Tamayo barn is quietly capable, and Kyle Frey gives this one a fighting chance in a wide-open maiden field. At double digits on the morning line, a small show investment or trifecta inclusion makes sense.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

The first three races are open to all TrackWiz readers, and they're worth your full attention. Stanford Dropout (Race 1, Dirt, 5½ furlongs) is the headliner of the free card — an 8/1 morning liner sitting on a TrackWiz rating of 79.79, which tells us the oddsmakers may be sleeping on this one. Value plays like this in short-field claiming sprints on a fast dirt track are exactly where overlays get cashed. Meanwhile, Bogarts Bucchero goes in Race 2 on the turf with an 87.08 rating and 3/1 odds — that's a strong number at a fair price. Shemakesmemad rounds out the free picks in Race 3, another maiden claiming sprint on the dirt where pedigree and pace shape will matter.

One theme connecting today's early dirt races: clear conditions and a dry track at Del Mar tend to favor horses with early foot in sprint distances. Keep that bias in mind as you build your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

6:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers with mostly first-time starters — minimal form to dissect, so our ratings model and the handful of horses with speed figures on the board become the primary tools.

win9ShemakesmemadML 3/1

Shemakesmemad (No. 9) tops the field with the best TrackWiz rating at 56.67 and is one of just two horses in this field showing a meaningful average speed figure — posting a 53 in prior work. Trainer Steven Miyadi sends Antonio Fresu up from the outside post, and at 3/1 on the morning line, the public is already on board. In a maiden claimer with this many blanks in the past performances, the horse with an actual speed figure has a significant edge.

place3Please BehaveML 4/1

Please Behave (No. 3) is right behind the top pick on our ratings at 55.0, and importantly, also shows an average speed figure of 54 — meaning this horse has race experience to draw on. Henry Reynoso Lopez gets the call for Felix Gonzalez, and at 4/1, there's decent place value. The proximity to the top-rated horse suggests this one should be in the mix at the wire.

show4Blondys ForzaML 5/1

Blondys Forza (No. 4) matches several horses in the field on the TrackWiz scale at 53.33, but the 5/1 morning line gives this Hector Berrios-Paula Capestro combo a small edge in terms of price-to-rating ratio. With no speed figure to evaluate, this is a projection play, but the morning line respects it enough to include in show betting and multi-race wagers.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

6:30 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

An intriguing starter optional claiming field on the turf where the TrackWiz ratings point strongly in one direction, but the morning-line favorite carries a surprising 100% career win rate that could scramble the pace scenario.

win4Famous ForzaML 6/1

Famous Forza (No. 4) is the top-rated horse on our model at 82.71 and offers legitimate value at 6/1 on the morning line — a substantial gap between rating and price. Juan Hernandez takes the mount for Bill McLean, and the combination of a 20% career win rate, an average speed figure of 56, and a top-tier TrackWiz score makes this one a strong win play. On a 5-furlong turf sprint, a horse with this profile who rates high on pace and class should be right in the mix from the jump.

place7UnbindingML 3/1

Unbinding (No. 7) is right on Famous Forza's heels with an 80.01 TrackWiz rating and carries an impressive 33% career win rate — the best among horses with multiple starts in this field. Trainer Mark Glatt is a Cal-bred turf specialist, and Antonio Fresu is a reliable pilot. At 3/1 on the morning line, Unbinding is the clear public second choice, and the rating backs that up.

show5Lady MaryannML 4/1

Lady Maryann (No. 5) rounds out our top three with a 61.84 rating — a clear step below the top two but still respectable in this field — and matches the field-best average speed figure of 56. The 4% career win rate is a flag, but at 4/1 on the morning line, the place-show value is real. Hector Berrios keeps the mount, and this one could easily land a piece in a competitive field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

7:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A deep maiden claiming dirt sprint where almost no one has a speed figure to lean on — this becomes a barn trust and ratings exercise, with a couple of notable trainer angles rising to the top.

win5Dont Short Ur SelfML 3/1

Dont Short Ur Self (No. 5) leads our model at 56.67 and draws Joel Rosario — one of the most accomplished riders in the game — from the John Sadler barn. Sadler is a high-percentage trainer who rarely sends out hopeless maiden claimers, so this horse deserves serious attention despite the lack of a published speed figure. At 3/1 on the morning line, you're not getting a gift, but the combination of top TrackWiz rating, elite jockey, and respected trainer justifies the top selection.

place7ImnosurethingML 7/2

Imnosurething (No. 7) is second on our ratings at 55.83 and comes from the Peter Eurton barn — a trainer with a strong record at Del Mar. Emisael Jaramillo is a capable handler for a first-time-out type, and at 7/2 on the morning line, this one is well-positioned as a place bet. The rating edge over most of the field is real, even if the form lines are thin.

show3Breakaway BabeML 5/1

Breakaway Babe (No. 3) matches several competitors on the TrackWiz scale at 53.33 but earns a spot in our exotic plays based on a 5/1 morning line and the Felix Rondan barn sending out Kyle Frey — a jockey who wins his share of races at Del Mar. With so many unknowns in this field, spread betting through the show pool makes sense, and Breakaway Babe is a logical third wheel.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

7:30 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full field of fillies and mares going a route on the turf in an AOC — there's a clear top selection on our model, but mid-pack value is hiding in plain sight at rewarding prices.

win7The White LadyML 7/2

The White Lady (No. 7) dominates this field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in the race by a wide margin — and carries a 25% career win rate that shows she converts when the conditions are right. Antonio Fresu rides for the Philip D'Amato barn, one of the most successful turf operations on the West Coast, and at 7/2 on the morning line, this is a solid price for a horse our model loves. At 1 1/16 miles on the turf, D'Amato horses tend to arrive late and professionally — expect The White Lady to be rolling in the final furlong.

place5Pura Vida PrincesaML 8/1

Pura Vida Princesa (No. 5) is a live longshot in the place pool at 8/1, sitting third on our TrackWiz model at 74.54 with an average speed figure of 56 — matching the field leaders on raw pace. Doug O'Neill sends Joe Bravo up, and a 12% career win rate tells you this horse competes but hasn't always gotten the best of trips. In a full turf field going around two turns, traffic can shuffle the deck late, and Pura Vida Princesa at a big price is a smart place/show investment.

show3RibbonsML 9/2

Ribbons (No. 3) brings a solid 69.15 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate, with Joel Rosario up for Leonard Powell — a barn that regularly produces competitive turf runners. The 9/2 morning line is fair, and Rosario is known for finding trouble-free trips in full fields. As a show anchor in trifecta tickets, Ribbons makes a lot of sense.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 7

8:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-turn mile on the dirt where the TrackWiz top pick is also the morning-line favorite — a rare alignment between public opinion and our model, though two horses lurking underneath offer legitimate upset potential.

win2PokerknightatveesML 2/1

Pokerknightatvees (No. 2) is a deserving favorite with the highest rating in the field at 88.54 and a 23% career win rate that demonstrates consistent closing ability. Ricardo Gonzalez has been sharp in the irons lately, and trainer Sean Williams knows how to place a horse for a win. The average speed figure of 56 is among the field's best, and at 2/1 on the morning line, while the price is short, the credentials here are legitimate. This is a horse you key on top in multi-race exotics.

place5The G MML 9/2

The G M (No. 5) is the sneaky-best number in this field behind the top pick — an 80.7 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 40% career win rate that screams competitive horse. Armando Ayuso gets a live mount for Mike Puype, and with a 9/2 morning line, there's real place value on a horse that wins nearly half its starts. In a small field, The G M should be on or near the lead and could make things very uncomfortable for the favorite.

show8John MetcalfeML 8/1

John Metcalfe (No. 8) carries a 60.23 TrackWiz rating and draws Juan Hernandez from the Craig Lewis barn — worth a look as a show play at 8/1 given the relatively open pace scenario this field sets up. The zero career win rate is a concern, but speed figures of 53 suggest this horse has been in competitive races. At odds, a trifecta inclusion underneath the top two makes solid sense.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

8:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A large claiming field on the turf with an almost unwieldy 14 horses, creating a complex pace scenario — but our top two selections stand out clearly on ratings, and a 12/1 show play in the exotics adds some spice.

win12Angelica BayML 7/2

Angelica Bay (No. 12) leads the entire field with an 85.66 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate — strong numbers for a claimer. Emisael Jaramillo picks up the mount for Doug O'Neill, and O'Neill is no stranger to winning turf routes at Del Mar. The 7/2 morning line is a fair price for the top-rated horse in a big field, and the average speed figure of 54 keeps pace with the best in the race. In a full-field turf route, position and traffic management are key — Jaramillo is equal to the task.

place13Lil's CoffeeML 5/1

Lil's Coffee (No. 13) is another O'Neill runner in the same race with a strong 80.71 TrackWiz rating, giving the barn a legitimate one-two punch. Kazushi Kimura takes the mount, and a 6% career win rate actually understates the raw ability here — our model sees a horse that competes at a higher level than the record suggests. At 5/1 on the morning line, Lil's Coffee is a prime place bet and should be used heavily in exactas underneath Angelica Bay.

show7Can't Say ThatML 12/1

Can't Say That (No. 7) is a fascinating show play at 12/1 morning line with a 73.96 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the race — despite being largely ignored by the morning-line makers. The 14% career win rate is modest but respectable for a claimer, and Kazushi Kimura (interestingly double-booked by the program) gives this one capable handling. In a 14-horse turf mile with plenty of pace pressure, a horse rated this high at double-digit odds is worth a small show bet and deserves trifecta consideration.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

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Bottom line for today: Stanford Dropout is the longshot angle to watch in Race 1, Bogarts Bucchero looks like a solid play at a fair price in Race 2, and Pokerknightatvees is the card's top-rated horse at 88.54 — a name to build your late-race tickets around. It's a full, interesting card under ideal conditions at one of America's best tracks. Subscribe for the complete breakdown at TrackWiz Premium, and good luck at the windows today.

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