Daily Picks

Del Mar Picks & Predictions — July 18, 2026

Saturday, July 18, 202611 racesDel Mar

It's a picture-perfect Saturday at Del Mar — 79°F, clear skies, and fast footing on both the main track and the turf course. Eleven races are on the menu today, and the card has a little bit of everything: maiden sprints, claiming battles, turf routes, and a pair of stakes races that should bring the Pacific grandstand to life by mid-afternoon.

The headliner is Race 8, a dirt stakes at 1 1/16 miles where even-money morning-line favorite Journalism tops our TrackWiz ratings with a 90.00 — the highest mark on the entire card. But don't sleep on the turf action, either. Races 3, 7, 9, and 11 all go on the lawn, and with the course in excellent shape, grass specialists should be doing their thing today.

Three races are open to everyone. The other eight are part of our full premium card breakdown. Here's how the day shapes up.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong claiming opener with a clear TrackWiz rating hierarchy — Otto the Conqueror tops the board and looks like the horse to beat, but Special Club posting the field's best average speed keeps the exotics honest.

win5Otto the ConquerorML 3/1

Otto the Conqueror enters with the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 and backs it up with a career win rate of 31% — the best in this field by a significant margin. Trainer Mick Ruis Sr. has had this horse dialed in, and Armando Ayuso gets the call in what shapes up as a manageable pace scenario at six furlongs on dirt. The 3/1 morning line is fair given the credentials, and the rating gap over most rivals is substantial enough to inspire confidence.

place3Comedy TownML 2/1

Comedy Town rates second on the TrackWiz scale at 80.06 and gets Hall of Fame-caliber handling from Joel Rosario, who consistently squeezes every length out of his mounts. Trainer George Papaprodromou is one of the sharper conditioners on the Southern California circuit, and an 18% career win rate shows this horse knows how to hit the board. At 2/1 on the morning line, the place price may be short, but the profile screams dependability.

show6Special ClubML 6/1

Special Club is the speed angle worth noting here — posting the field's top average speed figure of 57 gives this Juan J. Hernandez-piloted runner a live shot if the pace collapses in front. Craig Anthony Lewis sends this one out with a 15% career win rate, which isn't flashy, but the raw speed number suggests Special Club could be running past tired rivals late. At 6/1, there's enough value to slot into exotics comfortably.

Race 2

9:32 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse maiden sprint on dirt where first-time starters dominate the field, making this a puzzle built on workout data and trainer patterns — Thirsty Caitlin is a commanding standout on the ratings sheet, but plenty of unknowns lurk.

win6Thirsty CaitlinML 3/1

Thirsty Caitlin holds a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — a full 34 points clear of the second-ranked horse in the field, which is a massive gap in a maiden race. Trainer Edwin G. Alvarez saddles this one alongside stablemate Endless Smoke, suggesting he's got a live one isolated in this entry, and Armando Aguilar is a savvy hand to have in the irons for a maiden debut. The 3/1 morning line feels achievable, and the rating dominance makes this our strongest opinion in the early going.

place1I'm Smoken HotML 5/1

I'm Smoken Hot shows a TrackWiz rating of 53.33 and is one of just two horses in the field with an established average speed figure of 54, giving her a form edge over the largely untested maiden field. Julien R. Leparoux is one of the classiest jockeys in the sport and brings experience in spotting raw talent on debut. Val Brinkerhoff stables this filly, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's decent each-way value if she runs to her figures.

show10Ms Grainger DangerML 6/1

Ms Grainger Danger draws program number 10 with Umberto Rispoli — one of the sharpest turf and dirt riders on the West Coast — climbing aboard for trainer George Papaprodromou, who rarely shows up without a plan. The 51.67 TrackWiz rating ranks her third in the field, and the Papaprodromou barn has consistently produced debut-ready runners. At 6/1, she's a logical show ticket and an intriguing piece of any exacta or trifecta structure.

Race 3

10:04 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open fourteen-horse allowance optional claiming sprint on turf — deep fields at five furlongs on the green can devolve into a scramble, and with multiple horses in the 60-82 rating range, this is a race where the pace scenario will separate winners from also-rans.

win10Tiger of the SeaML 6/1

Tiger of the Sea tops our pick list with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 and brings Emisael Jaramillo aboard for trainer Brian J. Koriner in what looks like a well-spotted spot. The 11% career win rate may seem modest, but in a wide field at a demanding allowance level, consistency and a sharp rating count for more than raw win percentage. At 6/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value attached to the top-rated horse in the field.

place7Zip Me UpML 5/1

Zip Me Up is hard to overlook — a TrackWiz rating of 81.08, a career win rate of 33%, and the field's joint-best average speed of 57 make this a horse with real upside. Trainer Carla Gaines is one of the steadier hands in the barn area, and Hector Isaac Berrios has been a dependable pilot for live longshot angles. The 5/1 morning line offers value considering the speed advantage, and in a pace duel scenario this runner could be flying home late.

show2Pavel Is AppealingML 6/1

Pavel Is Appealing brings the most eye-catching career win percentage in this field at 40% — a number that screams a horse who consistently performs when the conditions suit. Doug F. O'Neill trains, Umberto Rispoli rides, and the TrackWiz rating of 69.21 puts this runner solidly in the mix without being overbet at 6/1. In a field this large, a horse with proven winning habits is exactly the kind of hedge you want in your trifecta.

Our three free selections today span the claiming and maiden ranks across the early part of the card. Otto the Conqueror (Race 1, 3/1 ML) headlines the dirt sprint openers with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — strong for a claiming field — and the pace scenario sets up nicely for a horse with his running style. In Race 2, Thirsty Caitlin matches that same 87.08 rating in a maiden special weight sprint, making her one of the most intriguing debut-or-sophomore types on the card. And in Race 3, Tiger of the Sea comes in at 6/1 on the morning line in an allowance optional claiming turf sprint — that's the kind of overlay angle we love, a solid 82.71 rating at a price the public may underestimate.

The through-line connecting these three free picks is straightforward: each one projects to be on or near the lead in a pace scenario that suits their best running style, and all three are competing at a level where our models show a clear edge over the field. In a vacuum, any one of these would be a confident best bet. Together, they form a tidy early-card sequence worth tracking.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:38 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

The Bob Baffert barn sends out two first-time starters into this five-furlong maiden sprint, and both land near the top of the morning line — when the Baffert operation invests in a race like this, the field has reason to pay attention.

win9Quattro PassiML 3/1

Quattro Passi is our top pick here, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 56.67 — the highest in the field — with Mike E. Smith in the irons and Bob Baffert calling the shots. Smith and Baffert is one of the most decorated partnerships in American racing history, and when that combination shows up in a maiden race, it commands respect. The 3/1 morning line makes this the public's choice, and the trainer-jockey connection alone is worth the price of admission as a win bet.

place5HolmbyML 7/2

Holmby is the other Baffert first-timer in the race, and Juan J. Hernandez gets the mount for a horse that lands at 7/2 on the morning line with a 55.83 rating. When a barn of this caliber runs two in the same maiden race, they rarely do it without a strong opinion on both — Holmby's slightly shorter odds than the morning line suggests early support is possible. This is a natural exacta companion to Quattro Passi given the shared training operation.

show11Vino Vino VinoML 6/1

Vino Vino Vino gives the Doug O'Neill barn a presence in the race, with Emisael Jaramillo up and a TrackWiz rating of 51.67 that places this runner in a cluster of competitive maiden entrants. O'Neill consistently preps first-time starters effectively at Del Mar, and the 6/1 price is fair value in a wide-open maiden. Including this one in the trifecta gives you a respected trainer connection at a price that justifies the risk.

Race 5

11:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

With What a Gift scratched, this six-furlong claiming race tightens up considerably around three live contenders — Ya'll Come posted a commanding TrackWiz rating and the pace figures to set up for a horse with tactical speed.

win6Ya'll ComeML 7/2

Ya'll Come leads our analysis with the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35, and while the 15% career win rate isn't breathtaking, that figure likely understates the horse's ability at this class level. Armando Ayuso picks up the mount for trainer Victor L. Garcia, and the 7/2 morning line offers fair value for a horse whose rating margin over most rivals is considerable. In a claiming race where the scratch of What a Gift reshuffled the pace, Ya'll Come should get a clean trip and be dangerous turning for home.

place7Stagger LeeML 5/1

Stagger Lee rates second on the board at 80.32 and brings a career win rate of 28% — a reliable performer who gives Julien R. Leparoux a genuine shot at the exacta. Trainer Steven Miyadi quietly conditions competitive horses on this circuit, and the 5/1 morning line represents value on a horse that could easily finish ahead of the favorite if the pace develops favorably. The place position suits a horse with a strong enough profile to win but one that's being asked to beat our top pick.

show4Kid DynastyML 3/1

Kid Dynasty has the third-best TrackWiz rating in the active field at 75.12 and a career win rate of 25%, giving this Kazushi Kimura-piloted runner a strong enough foundation to be a trifecta anchor. Jorge Farias trains this one, and the 3/1 morning line — shorter than our show pick usually warrants — reflects genuine public respect for this runner's consistency. Include Kid Dynasty in all exotic structures; this is a horse that should be competitive throughout.

Race 6

11:40 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Six scratches have trimmed this maiden sprint down to a manageable eight-horse field, which clarifies the pace picture considerably — Net Par drew public support and carries the top TrackWiz rating among the remaining runners.

win9Net ParML 5/2

Net Par tops this field with a TrackWiz rating of 57.5 and draws Juan J. Hernandez aboard for trainer Antonio C. Garcia — a combination that keeps showing up with live horses in maiden company. The 5/2 morning line makes this the clear public choice, and with several scratches removing pace rivals from the equation, the trip figures to be uncontested early for a horse that has shown respectable speed at 55 average. This is a race where the morning line favorite deserves to be bet.

place4Golden ClubML 7/2

Golden Club brings a 55.83 TrackWiz rating and the services of Antonio Fresu for Craig Anthony Lewis, who has had runners ready to fire first time out this meet. The 7/2 morning line is accessible, and in a reduced field, any horse showing even modest tactical speed can find a clean position. An exacta linking Net Par and Golden Club should be a staple in your ticket.

show7Freedom SingsML 4/1

Freedom Sings gives Doug O'Neill another representative in the maiden landscape, with Emisael Jaramillo handling riding duties and a TrackWiz rating of 55.0 that slots in just below the top two picks. The 4/1 morning line suggests the market respects this one's chances, and with no career speed figure to reference, the unknown factor actually works in favor of optimism — O'Neill has a sharp eye for when a debut runner is ready. As a show ticket or part of a rolling trifecta, Freedom Sings is worth including.

Race 7

12:10 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A deep ten-horse turf route at 1 1/16 miles where the two top-rated horses — Centrodelantero and Hacking It Up — are separated by just 0.07 rating points, setting the stage for a thrilling stretch duel between two live contenders.

win6CentrodelanteroML 4/1

Centrodelantero edges to the top of our analysis with a TrackWiz rating of 82.78, and Hector Isaac Berrios is a capable rider for the longer turf trip. Trainer Jeff Mullins is a longtime fixture on the Southern California turf scene and knows how to get his horses fit for routes, even if a 10% career win rate suggests Centrodelantero needs things to go right. The 4/1 morning line is fair, and in a tactical distance like 1 1/16 miles on grass, a horse with this rating profile can benefit enormously from a well-judged trip.

place3Hacking It UpML 6/1

Hacking It Up is essentially a co-top pick here — a 82.71 TrackWiz rating matched with a 26% career win rate and an average speed of 57, which is the best in the field. Kazushi Kimura has been a revelation on the Southern California circuit and trainer Peter Miller rarely runs short of horses ready to perform. At 6/1 on the morning line, this is an outstanding value — arguably the best price on a top-two rated horse on the entire card.

show10Mythical ReelML 6/1

Mythical Reel checks in with a 74.74 TrackWiz rating and draws Antonio Fresu for the Philip D'Amato barn — and D'Amato is arguably the premier turf trainer in Southern California. A 12% career win rate suggests the wins haven't come easily, but the rating and the trainer affiliation make Mythical Reel a legitimate show candidate worth weaving into trifecta tickets. The 6/1 morning line offers value for a horse in a barn that practically owns the Del Mar turf calendar.

Race 8

12:40 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Stakes day heat featuring Journalism at even money — when a horse opens as a prohibitive favorite in a stakes race with a TrackWiz rating of 90 and a 46% career win rate, the rest of the card is really about who can run second.

win5JournalismML EVN

Journalism is the class of this field by a wide margin — a TrackWiz rating of 90 is the highest we've assigned on today's entire card, and a 46% career win rate in stakes company is elite. Umberto Rispoli gets the mount for Michael W. McCarthy, who has conditioned this horse to peak fitness, and the even-money morning line simply reflects reality. At a mile and a sixteenth on dirt, Journalism's profile screams horse who can put the race away early or grind rivals down in the stretch — bet accordingly.

place6Full SerranoML 7/2

Full Serrano is the logical main rival, carrying a 71.2 TrackWiz rating and a career win rate of 37% — the best win percentage of any active runner in the field outside Journalism. Joel Rosario is the perfect partner for a horse that needs to stalk a fast pace and pounce, and trainer John W. Sadler has stakes-caliber runners firing all meet long. At 7/2, the place position is live, and in a race where the favorite dominates, Rosario is exactly the pilot you want trying to complete the exacta.

show3Shea BrennanML 12/1

Shea Brennan is a sneaky inclusion at 12/1 on the morning line — a 66.61 TrackWiz rating is respectable in this stakes field, and a 36% career win rate shows this Philip D'Amato-trained runner is no stranger to hitting the board. Armando Ayuso handles riding duties, and with a top average speed figure of 57, the early pace shape could suit a horse that establishes a forward position. The 12/1 price makes this an outstanding trifecta fill — if Journalism and Full Serrano fill the top two spots as expected, Shea Brennan at double-digit odds could pay handsomely.

Race 9

1:10 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

An eleven-horse turf stakes mile where Peanutbutterbombe enters as our top pick at 8/1 despite a strong field — the TrackWiz ratings suggest the morning line may have underestimated this Philip D'Amato-trained filly.

win5PeanutbutterbombeML 8/1

Peanutbutterbombe hits the board with a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — the highest in the field — and gets the Antonio Fresu-Philip D'Amato combination, which is one of the more dangerous pairings in turf racing on the West Coast. A 50% career win rate is genuinely exceptional and suggests this mare delivers when the conditions are right. At 8/1 on the morning line, there's clear value discrepancy between our rating and the oddsmaker's number — this looks like the best overlay on the entire card.

place1Raiding PartyML 3/1

Raiding Party is the morning line favorite at 3/1 for a reason — a 66% career win rate is stunning by any measure, and Brendan P. Walsh sends this one out with Ben Curtis in the irons for a legitimate stakes shot. The 71.65 TrackWiz rating puts Raiding Party second on our sheet, and while the win percentage is the most impressive in the entire day's card, the rating gap behind our top pick is noticeable. Raiding Party is a rock-solid place selection and should be used underneath in all exotic combinations.

show6Light Won UpML 10/1

Light Won Up rounds out our picks at 10/1 for trainer Doug O'Neill, with Emisael Jaramillo up and the field's best average speed figure of 57 — a number that matters in a turf mile where pace can compress the field. A 33% career win rate adds legitimacy, and at double-digit odds, the show value is attractive for a horse that carries genuine tactical speed into a stakes mile on grass. Light Won Up is a smart trifecta add at a price that makes the payout worthwhile.

Race 10

1:40 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile allowance optional claimer on dirt where Magnify's 85.62 TrackWiz rating stands out, but the presence of multiple Baffert runners and a 100% career win rate on Faran keeps the intrigue high.

win4MagnifyML 4/1

Magnify leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 and draws Kazushi Kimura for Tim Yakteen — a trainer who has handled top-level horses and knows how to condition a mile runner on dirt. The 4/1 morning line is fair but not generous, which tells you the market respects this horse's figures. In a quality allowance field, a 13-point rating advantage over the next-best runner is meaningful, and Kimura has the tactical intelligence to put this one in the right spot from the gate.

place8ClouseauML 7/2

Clouseau sports a 72.51 TrackWiz rating and a 29% career win rate for George Papaprodromou, who sends out Hector Isaac Berrios from the 8 post. This horse has enough rating to win outright but is ideally suited as an exacta partner with the top pick — a finisher who can track the pace and pick off tired rivals in the stretch. The 7/2 morning line is workable, and Papaprodromou has had a strong presence at Del Mar this summer.

show1Vitruvian ManML 6/1

Vitruvian Man opens at 6/1 for Doug O'Neill with Antonio Fresu up, and a 72.06 TrackWiz rating puts this runner just a half-point behind our place pick — statistically, the show position could easily be reversed. A 14% career win rate is modest, but the rating puts this horse in legitimate contention in a field that is bunched in the 67-72 range below our top pick. At 6/1, the show ticket offers value and this runner anchors the trifecta structure nicely.

Race 11

2:10 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

The nightcap is a maiden turf mile with a full field of first-time and lightly raced runners — Koekkoek carries a dominant 85.62 rating and the Philip D'Amato turf advantage, but a hidden gem at 10/1 makes the exotics genuinely compelling.

win6KoekkoekML 4/1

Koekkoek sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 — a 30-point gap over most of the field — and draws Juan J. Hernandez for Philip D'Amato, the gold standard of turf training at Del Mar. D'Amato horses routinely debut with fitness that rivals those with several starts under their belt, and in a maiden turf mile, the trainer edge is as significant as the speed edge. The 4/1 morning line feels like the right price for a horse carrying this kind of rating authority into a wide-open maiden field.

place9PlagaristML 10/1

Plagarist is our value play here at 10/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 57.81 ranks third in the field, and trainer Mark Glatt is a sharp Del Mar operator who shows up with purpose in maiden turf routes. Abel Lezcano gets the mount, and with an average speed of 54 already on record, this runner has shown something in prior work. At 10/1, Plagarist is an excellent exacta wheel underneath Koekkoek and the top longshot angle on the closing race of the night.

show4YepML 7/2

Yep gives Philip D'Amato a second string in the race — program number 4 with Umberto Rispoli up and a 55.83 TrackWiz rating that places this runner in the competitive mid-tier. When D'Amato runs two in the same maiden turf race, both horses are typically well-prepared, and Rispoli is an elite turf rider who can maximize any natural ability. The 7/2 morning line shows genuine public support, and Yep is a logical show bet and trifecta piece to pair alongside the top two picks.

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Bottom line: today's Del Mar card is deep, the conditions are ideal, and there's genuine value hiding beyond the obvious chalk. Otto the Conqueror, Thirsty Caitlin, and Tiger of the Sea are your free best bets to kick things off — and Journalism is the name to know in the featured stakes. Want the full picture, including pace maps, exotic ticket breakdowns, and every angle on all 11 races? Upgrade to TrackWiz Premium and get in on the complete card before post time.

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