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Charles Town Picks & Predictions — November 11, 2026

November 11, 20268 racesAll Charles Town picks

Best bets at Charles Town today

Race 18Ed's ProphecyML 7/27:00 PM EST

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Last 30 days at Charles Town: our top pick won 22 of 64 races (34%) and finished in the money in 47.

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Ed's Prophecy is our best bet among tonight's free races — a 7/2 morning-line shot in Race 1 whose jockey has cashed in 56% of starts over the past year and whose recent race speed ranks third on the card at 12.78 sec/furlong. That combination of live rider and raw pace data gives us real confidence at a price that shouldn't last long once money hits the windows.

The scene at Charles Town tonight: partly cloudy skies, a comfortable 58°F, and an 8-race all-dirt card waiting to unfold under the lights. Conditions feel stable — no rain in the picture — which should keep the surface playing honest and reward horses with legitimate recent form.

The card mixes Claiming races and Maiden Special Weight events across sprint distances ranging from 4½ to 6½ furlongs, giving us plenty of pace angles to work with. A couple of our premium plays are sitting at short morning-line prices that our TrackWiz ratings actually support, while there's at least one live longshot hiding deeper in the card worth building an exotic ticket around.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:00 PM EST

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The top two TrackWiz ratings in this 7-furlong claimer are separated by just four points, and with an all-unproven field on pace shape, this one figures to be a scramble from the gate — smart money focuses on recent speed figures and connections rather than running style.

win8Ed's ProphecyML 7/2

Ed's Prophecy earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 and clocks in third for recent race speed at 12.78 sec/furlong, keeping him right in the mix on that front. What really separates him is the elite connections: jockey Moises Santaella has posted a 21% win rate and a 56% in-the-money rate over the past year, and the Santaella/trainer Ronney W. Brown combo takes that up a notch at 29% wins and 65% in the money — that's a legitimately dangerous pairing. Our simulations backed the ticket, with Ed's Prophecy winning 23.81% of 10,000 runs. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's real value here against a field without a clear pacesetter.

place7Ziggy StardustML 4/1

Ziggy Stardust slots in at a TrackWiz rating of 82.19 and leads the field in recent race speed at 12.70 sec/furlong — that's the fastest recent number in the race, full stop. He's placed in four of 19 Dirt starts with a solid in-the-money rate of 54%, and he's coming off back-to-back in-the-money efforts. The one flag to note is that at six years old he's past the typical peak age, but his current form suggests he's not fading just yet.

show1Bull RiderML 2/1

Bull Rider rates third in the field at 67.95 and brings a legitimate edge as the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.77 sec/furlong — essentially a tick behind Ziggy Stardust. The fact that he's won on today's surface and distance more than once and took the win last time out at this surface/distance combo is a meaningful form arrow. The concern about only 12 days of rest is real — he tends to prefer 30-plus — so a show ticket feels like the right level of commitment here.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

8Ed's Prophecy24%
7Ziggy Stardust20%
1Bull Rider19%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 1 is where casual fans should start tonight. Ed's Prophecy draws our top TrackWiz rating of 86.35 in the Claiming opener at 7 furlongs, and the numbers back up the hype — fastest recent pace figure among the horses we're highlighting in the free tier, paired with a jockey who is running hot (21% wins, 56% in-the-money over the last year). At 7/2 on the morning line, there's genuine value here against what looks like a beatable field. Our simulation gives Ed's Prophecy a 23.81% win probability, which translates to fair odds closer to 3/1 — meaning the current line may actually be leaving money on the table if you get there early.

The 7-furlong dirt sprint sets up as a key distance on Charles Town's tight oval, where early pace can be deceptive and closers sometimes get swallowed by the tight turns. Keep that in mind as you watch the gates open — position in the first quarter mile often tells the story here.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:30 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

This maiden special weight sprint at 4½ furlongs draws a large field of largely unraced horses with zero career wins across the board, so this one comes down to workout bullet speed, jockey/trainer percentages, and what little prior race experience exists — a classic 'who's ready to fire first' spot.

win10Reddam IslandML 5/2

Reddam Island lands atop the TrackWiz ratings at 57.5 in a field where the margins are thin, and the connections make a strong case. Jockey Arnaldo Bocachica has been on fire over the past year — 34% wins and 73% in the money — and when paired with trainer Jeff C. Runco, that combo rockets to 40% wins and 75% in the money. That Bocachica/Runco pairing is one of the more potent combinations you'll find at this level anywhere. Reddam Island also clocked the third-best workout of the past month at 12.10 sec/furlong, suggesting she's fit and ready, and our sims gave her a 16.92% win rate — the highest among the top-rated horses in this race.

place2Anatolian BulletML 7/2

Anatolian Bullet is the second-rated horse in the field at 55.83 and comes in with strong jockey/trainer synergy of her own: Jeiron Barbosa wins at 22% and hits the board 59% of the time, and his combo with trainer Anthony Farrior shows 31% wins and 64% in the money. For a maiden race with limited form to dissect, that level of human capital around the horse matters a great deal. She won 14.98% of our simulations — solid enough to warrant a place ticket.

show4Far Out WestML 4/1

Far Out West is the third-rated horse at 55.0 and pairs the top-tier jockey/trainer combination of Santaella and Ronney W. Brown — 29% wins and 65% in the money together — with the second-fastest recent race speed in the field at 13.29 sec/furlong. The 50% in-the-money rate from her limited prior starts adds another layer of confidence. At 4/1 on the morning line, she's a reasonable show play in what could be a contentious tri.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

10Reddam Island17%
4Far Out West15%
2Anatolian Bullet15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:57 PM EST

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short-field claiming sprint where the morning-line favorite Saucy Boss is the even-money chalk but carries a troubling recent form line, while Runaway Gold owns the fastest recent race speed in the field — setting up a genuine pace versus form debate worth digging into.

win2Runaway GoldML 5/1

Runaway Gold is the top TrackWiz-rated horse at 84.17 and leads all comers with the fastest recent race speed at 12.69 sec/furlong — that's a meaningful edge in a 4½-furlong sprint where early fractions dictate everything. She's also coming off back-to-back in-the-money efforts, the kind of freshening form cycle you want to see before a spot like this. Our simulations saw her win 23.46% of 10,000 runs, nearly matching the even-money Saucy Boss despite being listed at 5/1 on the morning line — that's a value gap worth exploiting.

place6Saucy BossML EVN

Saucy Boss posts the second-best recent race speed at 12.73 sec/furlong and carries a TrackWiz rating of 75.34, good for second in the field. The concern is real: she's placed only once in her last six starts and is coming in on just 14 days of rest when she clearly prefers a 30-plus-day freshener. Even so, she won 33.51% of our sims — the highest of any horse in the race — suggesting her raw ability is hard to dismiss entirely. A place bet captures upside while acknowledging the form concerns.

show3Hellenic SpiritML 9/5

Hellenic Spirit grades out third at 57.99 and is listed at the surprisingly short morning line of 9/5, which likely reflects track-level insider sentiment. She's third for recent race speed at 12.89 sec/furlong, keeping her live in the pace picture. That said, she's placed only once in her last six races — including a four-race out-of-the-money streak to close — so this is a show play to cover the base rather than a full-throated endorsement.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Saucy Boss34%
2Runaway Gold23%
3Hellenic Spirit21%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

8:25 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses sit atop the TrackWiz ratings within a single point of each other — Angels Are Bowling at 87.81 and Silent Sam at 86.88 — and this maiden special weight at 6½ furlongs shapes up as a two-horse race with the rest of the field fighting for show money.

win3Angels Are BowlingML 5/2

Angels Are Bowling tops the field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and brings an impressive dirt form line: placed in three of four Dirt starts, including back-to-back in-the-money efforts heading into today. She's second in recent race speed at 12.77 sec/furlong, just a tick off the leader Silent Sam. That 75% in-the-money rate from her career is the kind of consistency that makes you comfortable sending her to win, and our sims backed that view with a 28.55% win rate across 10,000 runs. At 5/2 on the morning line, there's reasonable value here against a field where the second choice comes at 6/5.

place5Silent SamML 6/5

Silent Sam is the most dangerous rival in the field, sitting at 86.88 TrackWiz rating and owning the fastest recent race speed at 12.75 sec/furlong. He's placed in four of five Dirt starts and four of his last five overall — that consistency is hard to argue with. The 6/5 morning line reflects strong public confidence, and while we prefer Angels Are Bowling at a slightly longer price, Silent Sam at 6/5 is as close to a cinch place ticket as you'll find in a maiden race.

show4Lil PegasusML 6/1

Lil Pegasus checks in third at 75.98 and shows third-best recent race speed at 12.89 sec/furlong, keeping her in the early pace picture. She's placed in three of five Dirt starts, and jockey Nomar Arroyo Bueno wins at 21% and hits the board 55% of the time over the past year — a steady hand aboard. At 6/1 on the morning line, she's a sensible show anchor and a worthwhile exotics piece behind the top two.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Silent Sam33%
3Angels Are Bowling29%
4Lil Pegasus17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

8:53 PM EST

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Creed Calling and Amama look like a class above the rest of this 6½-furlong claimer field, with ratings of 88.83 and 81.47 respectively, though Creed Calling stepping up in claiming price from $10,000 to $15,000 gives the race a little more spice than the numbers alone suggest.

win7Creed CallingML 9/5

Creed Calling sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 and is third for recent race speed at 12.70 sec/furlong, backing up his numbers with live recent form — he's placed in back-to-back races heading into today. His dirt record is solid: two wins and placed in five of 10 starts on the surface. The main concern is the claiming price jump from $10,000 to $15,000, which is a meaningful class step up. That said, our sims gave him a 31.13% win rate — the highest in the field — and trainer Timothy C. Grams has an A-minus grade, suggesting this team doesn't misplace horses carelessly.

place6AmamaML 8/5

Amama rates second in the field at 81.47 and is the most consistent horse in the race by recent form: placed in four of her last six starts, with two wins from 16 Dirt efforts. Jockey Nomar Arroyo Bueno (21% win rate, 55% in the money over the past year) is a reliable weapon, and trainer Jean L. Adorno earns an 'A' grade. At 8/5 morning line she'll go off as a co-favorite, so the place ticket is more about locking in security than finding value — she won 28.69% of our simulations.

show2Keep Shining On UsML 5/1

Keep Shining On Us is the third-rated horse at 67.41 and owns the single fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.49 sec/furlong — a figure that stands out in a 6½-furlong sprint. That kind of early speed gives her an obvious path: get to the front, set comfortable fractions, and make the favorites work for it. At 5/1 on the morning line, she's the best show value in the race for exotic players looking to anchor a trifecta.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

7Creed Calling31%
6Amama29%
2Keep Shining On Us14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

9:21 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Voodoo dominates the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 in this maiden special weight, nearly 12 points clear of the second-rated Soul Healer, but the morning-line favorite is Revealing at 7/5 — a disconnect between public money and TrackWiz numbers that makes this race genuinely interesting.

win8VoodooML 5/2

Voodoo earns the top TrackWiz rating at 87.81 — the highest in the race by a wide margin — and backs it with the third-best recent race speed at 12.40 sec/furlong. The connections are elite: jockey Moises Santaella wins at 21% and hits the board 56% of the time, and the Santaella/trainer Ronney W. Brown combo pushes to 29% wins and 65% in the money together. With a 60% career in-the-money rate and a sim win share of 30.11%, Voodoo figures to be the horse to beat here despite not being the morning-line favorite.

place2Soul HealerML 8/1

Soul Healer is second-rated at 75.70 and brings the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.32 sec/furlong — a compelling figure in a 6½-furlong sprint. She's placed in two of three Dirt starts and comes off back-to-back in-the-money efforts, which is exactly the form arrow you want to see in a maiden. At 8/1 on the morning line, she's a genuine value play in the exotics and a smart place ticket if you think the public is overweighting Revealing.

show3La DevitaML 5/1

La Devita rates third in the field at 69.66 and shows a track-specific edge worth noting: she's placed in two of three starts right here at Charles Town, suggesting she handles the oval well. She's also placed in two of her last two outings — back-to-back in-the-money finishes heading into today. At 5/1 on the morning line, she rounds out a logical exotics play behind Voodoo and Soul Healer.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

8Voodoo30%
5Revealing22%
2Soul Healer15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

9:49 PM EST

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Just a Wizard and Holiday Cash are separated by only six rating points at the top of this 6½-furlong claimer, but the real story is that Holiday Cash posts the fastest recent race speed in the field — setting up a classic ratings-versus-figures debate that makes this one of the more intriguing races on the card.

win3Just a WizardML 9/5

Just a Wizard tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 and is second for recent race speed at 12.54 sec/furlong, keeping him right in the early pace picture. The jockey/trainer combo is a strength: Jeiron Barbosa wins at 22% and hits the board 59% of the time, and paired with trainer Anthony Farrior that number climbs to 31% wins and 64% in the money — one of the sharper combos on the card. Our sims gave Just a Wizard a 33.59% win rate across 10,000 runs, the highest of any horse in the field. At 9/5 morning line there's not a ton of value, but the numbers support him as a confident top pick.

place7Holiday CashML 8/5

Holiday Cash is second-rated at 82.27 and owns the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.26 sec/furlong — a figure that stands out in any 6½-furlong sprint. He's placed in four of his last six overall and carries elite connections: Santaella/Brown hit at 29% wins and 65% in the money together. The 65% career in-the-money rate reinforces this horse's consistency. At 8/5 on the morning line he'll go off short, but the place ticket is about keeping a live horse underneath in exactas.

show4EspressoML 5/1

Espresso rates third at 55.88 and brings legitimate course-and-distance form: five wins in 24 Dirt starts and two wins from six tries at 6½ furlongs specifically. The jockey/horse combo of Victor Rodriguez aboard Espresso shows a 14% win rate and 46% in the money, suggesting this pairing has worked before. The age concern (six years old) is noted, but the distance record makes him a reasonable show play for exotic players building trifecta tickets.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Just a Wizard34%
7Holiday Cash30%
4Espresso12%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

10:17 PM EST

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Caribbean Pleasure dominates the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 in this 10-horse, 4½-furlong claiming sprint, but a large and experienced field — with several horses showing double-digit career win percentages — means the win is not a forgone conclusion and the exotics are wide open.

win3Caribbean PleasureML 3/1

Caribbean Pleasure is the top-rated horse in the field at 87.08 and ties for the fastest recent race speed alongside Pops Harper at 12.04 sec/furlong — a big edge in a short 4½-furlong sprint. The career numbers are impressive: 40% career win rate, 68% in the money, and 10 wins from 25 Dirt starts — that's exceptional durability and consistency. Jockey Nomar Arroyo Bueno (21% wins, 55% in the money over the past year) is a reliable partner, and our sims had Caribbean Pleasure winning 28.35% of 10,000 runs. The only flag is that at six years old she's past the typical peak age, but her current form doesn't show it.

place1Ultra ViolenceML 4/1

Ultra Violence rates second in the field at 66.06 and brings a remarkable career profile for this level: 37% career win rate, 62% in the money, and three wins from eight Dirt starts. She's also placed in five of seven sprint races specifically — a strong distance record heading into today's 4½-furlong test. Moises Santaella in the irons is always a positive, and despite the age concern at six years old, her sprint record makes her a logical place play behind the top pick.

show2Pay ZoneML 7/2

Pay Zone comes in third-rated at 54.66 and brings genuine bulk to this field: nine wins from 36 Dirt starts and a 52% career in-the-money rate. Trainer Adam King earns an A-minus grade, which is meaningful in a claiming race where trainer intent often tells the story. The concern about a claiming price bump from $4,500 to $5,000 is minor at this level, and at 7/2 on the morning line she's a solid show anchor and an obvious exotics piece in a wide-open sprint.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Caribbean Pleasure28%
1Ultra Violence18%
2Pay Zone13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Bottom line for tonight: start with Ed's Prophecy in Race 1 as your anchor play — solid rating, live jockey, fair price. The full card has multiple angles worth attacking, especially in the second half where pace setups and trainer-jockey combos create real value. Subscribers have everything they need for the complete 8-race assault. Good luck out there, and as always — bet smart, not scared.

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