Charles Town Picks & Predictions — November 5, 2026

Tap Into Magic is the most compelling backup here, powered by the elite jockey-trainer combination of Santaella and Ronney Brown (28% wins, 65% ITM together over the past year). More importantly, her workout figures are the best in this field over the last month — logging 11.67 seconds per furlong — which is a meaningful edge in a maiden race where you're partly betting on future potential. She carries a TrackWiz rating of 56.67 and won 17.24% of our simulations. The 3/1 morning line offers a touch of value.

Matt's Venture brings a double-A jockey-trainer tandem to the table — Carlos Eduardo Lopez (21% wins, 52% ITM) and trainer Phillip Capuano, both grading out at A. He ranks third for recent race speed at 13.37 seconds per furlong, and while he hasn't placed in his last start, the connections give him every opportunity to improve. At 7/2, he's a reasonable exotics inclusion in a race where the top four are closely matched.

Foolish Rabbit is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with a solid 69.60 TrackWiz rating (second in the field), and her 35% in-the-money career rate shows she's competitive. She's a TrackWiz analysis second choice but the ML chalk, which creates an interesting dynamic — if Miracle Lad gets his usual trip, Foolish Rabbit figures to fight it out for second. With a 23.79% simulation win share, she's right in the mix even if we don't think she's the top selection.

Shook Me All Night is a legitimate longshot angle for the exotics at 8/1 — she posted the fastest recent speed figure in this field at 12.44 seconds per furlong, which is a real positive. The concern is a cold recent form line: she hasn't placed in her last five starts, and she's placed in just 1 of her last 6 overall. That said, top speed figure in the race at a price is exactly the kind of live longshot that fills out trifecta tickets at a healthy payout.

Knickoletta brings a perfect distance record to the table — she's won once and placed in 3 of 3 career starts at 4½ furlongs, and that's a hard angle to fade in a short sprint. Her TrackWiz rating of 69.57 is second in the field, and jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez graded A by TrackWiz brings a 21% win rate and 52% ITM over the past year. The trainer John Robb grades A as well, making this a sharp connections play. At 5/1, she offers more value than the morning-line favorite.

Mya Papaya drops sharply in claiming price — from $10,000 to $5,000 — which is a significant class relief and one of the more notable angles in the race. Her jockey Arnaldo Bocachica has posted an impressive 35% win rate and 73% ITM over the past year, which is elite by any measure, and she's won 2 of 8 dirt starts with a 45% in-the-money rate. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's the ML favorite, so she's not a price play — but the class drop makes her a logical show ticket and exacta wheel component.

Seeking Unity is second in the ratings at 76.62 and leads the entire field for recent race speed at 12.53 seconds per furlong. His 24% career win rate across 37 starts and 54% in-the-money rate show a consistent, winning horse. Jockey Jeiron Barbosa grades A and brings a 22% win rate and 58% ITM over the past year — the best jockey stat combination among the top picks in this race. The age concern (six years old) is noted, but form hasn't regressed here.

Happy Jaunt has placed in 5 of his last 6 races — that's a hot streak you can't ignore in a route at this level. He's placed in all four of his last four starts, and his dirt record of 4 wins from 15 starts with a 48% in-the-money rate is solid. Trainer Timothy Shanley connects at B- and jockey Jose Diaz handles the mount. At 5/1 on the morning line, he's worth including in exotics given that scorching recent form.

Yuletide Gallop is the intriguing price underneath at 8/1 — he posted the fastest recent speed figure in this field at 12.08 seconds per furlong, which is a genuine positional advantage in a 7-furlong dirt race. His record of 6 wins and 17 placings from 25 dirt starts reflects a 65% career in-the-money rate, one of the best in this race. He's placed in his last two starts, confirming he's in form right now, and our simulations gave him a 17% win share — solid justification for including him in exactas beneath Hammer.

Juba's Hat Trick is a Charles Town specialist through and through — 9 wins and 23 placings from 32 starts at this exact track, and 1 win with 10 placings from 15 starts at 7 furlongs specifically. That depth of local form is hard to dismiss. He's 6 years old, which is a flag, but a 71% career in-the-money rate from 32 starts suggests he hasn't lost much. At 5/1, he's worth stacking in trifectas as a reliable third-place type.

Run of the House owns the fastest recent speed figure in this field at 12.54 seconds per furlong — in a 7-furlong sprint with a large field, that early pop matters. He's placed in 4 of his last 6 races and carries a 77.12 TrackWiz rating, second best in this field. Trainer Ernest Haynes grades A, the top trainer grade among the picks in this race. The slight concern: he's coming off 27 days of rest but runs better with 30 or more. That's a small edge against him, but the blazing speed figure and hot recent form make him the logical place horse.

Ray's Blue Wagon at 10/1 is the value play rounding out the ticket — the Santaella/Brown combo is firing at 28% wins and 65% ITM over the past year, and Santaella alone is 20% and 56%. The horse himself has placed in 4 of 8 and 8 of 14 career dirt starts — a 50% career ITM rate is nothing to sneeze at. He's not the flashiest pick in the race, but the connections keep him live enough for a show inclusion and trifecta coverage at a price.