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Charles Town Picks & Predictions — October 24, 2026

October 24, 20268 racesAll Charles Town picks

Charles Town is going to work tonight under a crisp, clear sky with temperatures sitting right around 51°F — ideal conditions for fast dirt racing and sharp speed figures. Eight races are on the board, stretching from the sprint distances this oval loves to a pair of seven-furlong routes that should sort out the real horses from the pretenders.

Tonight's card has something for everyone: a couple of maiden fields where first-out horses and lightly raced types create genuine chaos, plus claiming and allowance spots where pace scenario and class-drop angles can unlock real value. Our TrackWiz ratings span from the low 80s all the way up to a 90 flat — so the talent gap between races is real, and picking your spots matters.

Three races are fully open for all readers, and five more are unlocked for TrackWiz subscribers. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint where the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top two — but the morning line favorite Iceteca sits well below our top-rated horses, setting up a potential overlay situation worth exploiting.

win3MonterreyML 9/2

Monterrey tops our ratings at 84.9 and brings a 25% career win rate — easily the best in this field and a number that demands respect in any claiming company. Trainer Michael E. Jones, Jr. also saddles Bold Advance, so the barn is double-barreled, which often signals confidence. With jockey Nomar Arroyo Bueno aboard at 9/2 on the morning line, there's genuine value here against the public's short-priced favorite. At seven furlongs, Monterrey's class edge should have plenty of time to assert itself.

place4Doctor PardoML 3/1

Doctor Pardo rates second in our model at 78.43, making him a logical backup at the 3/1 morning line. His career win rate of 15% is modest, but in a claiming race this is about finishing position, and his figure is comfortably ahead of the field's lower half. Carlos J. Rodriguez gets the call, and if Monterrey draws the attention of pace pressure, Doctor Pardo's closer profile should be enough to snag the place spot.

show5IcetecaML 6/5

Iceteca is the public's choice at 6/5 but rates third in our model at 75.43 — and with a career win percentage of just 6%, there's real reason to question whether the crowd is getting this one right. Including Iceteca underneath in exactas and trifectas makes sense given the likely low ticket price on top, but fading down to win looks like a smart play for value seekers.

Race 2

11:32 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses dominate the morning line in this starter optional claiming sprint, but a third runner with an intriguing speed edge lurks underneath at double-digit odds — making this a race where the exotics could pay.

win1Professor GraceML 8/5

Professor Grace sits atop our ratings at 89.12 — the highest mark in the race by a significant margin — and backs it up with a solid 20% career win rate. Trainer Michael Sandoval puts Carlos Eduardo Lopez in the irons, a sharp rider who figures to be in the mix early in this 6.5-furlong test. At 8/5 on the morning line she'll go favored, and while the price isn't exciting, the rating separation justifies the confidence. This is a horse to build exotics around.

place3Malibu YearsML 7/5

Malibu Years comes in as the second choice on the morning line at 7/5 and rates 72.94 in our model — a solid number, though clearly behind Professor Grace. What makes her interesting is a 27% career win rate, third best in this field, suggesting she regularly converts when fit and spotted. If pace gets hot up front, Malibu Years has the profile to sweep in for the place.

show6City TaahML 8/1

City Taah at 8/1 is the value inclusion in the exotics here — a TrackWiz rating of 63.31 and a 19% career win rate in a field where several horses are well below that threshold. Trainer Joanna Boggs has her with Christian Hiraldo, and at this morning line price she could easily pay nicely in a trifecta or superfecta combination. Don't let the odds scare you off; this one rates better than the crowd seems to think.

Race 3

12:02 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Wide-open maiden special weight with maiden runners — meaning no one has won before — but our model finds a clear top three separated by enough points to build a structured exacta and trifecta around.

win6Hill CountryML 3/1

Hill Country leads our ratings at 81.64 in a maiden field, which is a meaningful edge when you're dealing with unproven runners. Trainer Kevin J. Joy is a name to watch — he also has City of Bling in this race, suggesting he's sending in two shots with legitimate confidence. At 3/1 on the morning line, Hill Country offers fair value for the top-rated horse, and Victor Rodriguez is a capable hand in the irons for the 6.5-furlong distance on dirt.

place1Lion GuardML 10/1

Lion Guard is our place pick at 76.88 in the ratings and a 10/1 morning line price that looks too generous. Trainer Daisy K. Olivo has Caitlyn Stoddard aboard, and with an average speed figure of 54 — matching the best figures in this field — Lion Guard should be capable of at least hitting the board. In maiden races, where a single good work or hidden form can surprise, a horse rating this high at 10/1 is exactly the kind of value play TrackWiz is built to find.

show9City of BlingML 10/1

City of Bling rounds out our top three at 71.93 and is the second Kevin J. Joy runner in the race — a trainer who clearly fancies his chances today. The standout stat here is an average speed figure of 56, the highest in the field by two points, which suggests raw ability is there even if wins haven't come yet. J. D. Acosta takes the mount, and at 10/1 on the morning line, City of Bling is a strong trifecta wheel candidate.

The free portion of tonight's card opens with a bang. Monterrey draws our eye in Race 1 — a seven-furlong claiming sprint where our 84.9 rating and a morning line of 9/2 make this one of the better value opportunities on the card. If the pace sets up the way we project, there's room for a closer to swoop late on a track that can reward a variety of running styles when the weather is dry and the surface is true — exactly what we have tonight.

Race 2 shifts to a Starter Optional Claiming spot at 6½ furlongs, where Professor Grace earns our highest free-race rating at 89.12 and opens as the 8/5 morning line chalk. When a horse rates this well and offers a realistic odds ceiling, that's a spot worth circling. Round out the free trio with Hill Country in the Race 3 maiden — a 3/1 morning line with an 81.64 rating in a maiden special weight where even a small edge in experience or connections can swing the outcome.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:32 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Brother Moses dominates this maiden field on paper — the morning line tabbed him even-money and our model agrees emphatically — but the real puzzle is which longshot can sneak into the exacta behind him.

win7Brother MosesML EVN

Brother Moses is a standout in this field with a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark we've assigned to any runner across tonight's entire card. The even-money morning line reflects how strongly the market agrees, and trainer Timothy M. Collins has Fredy Peltroche up, a sharp booking that signals confidence. In a maiden field this thin, a horse rated 17+ points clear of the next-best competitor is a rare advantage, and despite the short price, he's the right anchor for all your exotic tickets.

place2Golden Boss ManML 6/1

Golden Boss Man rates second in this field at 72.54 and comes in at 6/1 on the morning line — a perfectly acceptable price for a horse that clearly separates himself from the bottom half of the draw. Moises Santaella, who rides regularly and effectively at Charles Town, gets the call for trainer Ronney W. Brown. With no career wins yet but a solid figure, this is the type of horse that can break through for a first win or at minimum run a big second behind a dominant rival.

show5Time to Get ItML 5/1

Time to Get It rates 55.36 in our model and sits third among the horses with recorded speed figures, which carries extra weight in a maiden field where several runners have no speed data at all. Trainer Kristy Petty sends out Antonio Lopez at 5/1 on the morning line, and in a race where the winner looks predetermined, the show spot often comes down to who has the most tangible form — and Time to Get It clears that bar here.

Race 5

1:02 AM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Short field, short sprint — four and a half furlongs on dirt at Charles Town produces quick, pace-heavy races, and Dixie Yodeler's rating stands well clear of a competitive mid-pack that should fight for the minor spots.

win3Dixie YodelerML 3/1

Dixie Yodeler leads our model at 87.08 — a strong number in a claiming field at this distance — and trainer Russell E. Davis III has her with Carlos Eduardo Lopez, who has already appeared multiple times tonight and clearly has a big book at this meet. At 3/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse with this kind of rating edge. Four and a half furlongs is a quick, gate-to-wire test, and Lopez is exactly the type of sharp tactical rider you want in a sprint.

place2Holy BrickML 10/1

Holy Brick is the value play in this field — a TrackWiz rating of 75.93 and a 10/1 morning line that seems to underestimate her. The eye-catching number is an average speed figure of 56, tied for the second-best in the race and the highest of any horse with a meaningful price. Trainer William Dowling sends Angel Cruz aboard, and with a 5% career win rate this isn't a horse you expect to dominate — but hitting the board in a competitive claiming sprint at this price is exactly why you use her in exactas.

show6Miss Mo TownML 4/1

Miss Mo Town rates 74.73 and has a 9% career win rate in a field where several horses are in that same range — she's solidly competitive, not spectacular. Wesley Ho takes the mount for trainer Alejandro Olais Mendieta, and at 4/1 on the morning line, she fits the profile of a horse that rarely embarrasses herself and often runs in the money. Include her as a show bet or in the bottom of trifecta tickets.

Race 6

1:32 AM EDT

Allowance · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

This allowance sprint looks like a two-horse race at the top — but the rest of the field is compressed in the ratings, which means live longshots could easily sneak into the exacta.

win5Priority OneML 7/2

Priority One tops our model at 86.35 and pairs that with a 28% career win rate — the second-highest win percentage in the field among the top-rated horses. Trainer Anthony Farrior and jockey Jeiron Barbosa are reunited here, a combination worth noting at any level. At 7/2 on the morning line, Priority One offers competitive value in an allowance spot where the rating gap over the field is real and measurable.

place7Ain't No AngelML 4/1

Ain't No Angel rates 77.07 and brings a 28% career win rate that matches Priority One's percentage — this is not a horse to dismiss lightly. Larry C. Reynolds rides for trainer Timothy C. Grams, and with an average speed figure of 53, she's right in the mix on raw pace. At 4/1 on the morning line, she's an excellent exacta partner behind Priority One and a legitimate chance to flip the script if the favorite meets traffic.

show4No DirectionML 5/1

No Direction rates 64.83 and carries a 33% career win rate — the highest in this field by a substantial margin — which tells you she converts at a big clip when conditions suit her. Carlos Eduardo Lopez is aboard for trainer Angelo G. Jackson, and at 5/1 the morning line price offers a touch of value. The rating isn't elite, but the win conversion history and a competitive jockey booking make her a logical show play and trifecta inclusion.

Race 7

2:02 AM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

A seven-furlong allowance that sets up as a genuine three-way race — Circle P leads our model but Teachintherelease has the field's best career win rate, and Play It Loud brings a realistic shot to round out the trifecta.

win6Circle PML 7/2

Circle P tops our ratings at 86.35 in what's a competitive allowance field, and the average speed figure of 55 is the highest in the race — a meaningful edge in a seven-furlong test where sustained pace matters. Trainer Flint W. Stites sends J. D. Acosta aboard, a jockey with multiple mounts tonight who clearly knows this Charles Town strip. At 7/2 on the morning line, Circle P offers genuine value at the top of the ticket and is our strongest win selection in this race.

place4TeachinthereleaseML 5/2

Teachintherelease has a 45% career win rate — by far the highest in this field and a figure that practically jumps off the page. Trainer Stephen Murdock has Carlos Eduardo Lopez riding, who's had a busy night and clearly has the confidence of the barn. The TrackWiz rating of 76.56 is solid and the 5/2 morning line makes Teachintherelease a short-priced but legitimate exacta partner with Circle P.

show7Play It LoudML 9/2

Play It Loud rates 73.65 and carries a 29% career win rate, both of which hold up well in this allowance company. Trainer Cynthia E. McKee has Sunday Diaz, Jr. in the irons, and at 9/2 on the morning line, there's a sliver of value here. In a seven-furlong race where pace can get honest, a horse with a solid rating and experience in this class tier can very naturally pick up a show check when the top two lay it all on the line.

Race 8

2:32 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming closer to figure out than it looks — Kelsey Hill Girl tops our ratings but Regal Flair is the public's morning-line favorite, setting up a legitimate handicapper's debate for a field with some real unknowns.

win2Kelsey Hill GirlML 7/2

Kelsey Hill Girl is our top-rated runner at 86.35 — the same elite figure posted by Circle P in Race 7 — and trainer Timothy Shanley sends Sunday Diaz, Jr. aboard at a very fair 7/2 morning line. In a maiden claiming field where several runners have limited or no speed data, having a clearly top-rated horse at a non-chalk price is exactly the spot TrackWiz is designed to identify. Seven furlongs should suit her profile, and fading the even-money favorite to take a swing at better value here is worth serious consideration.

place5Regal FlairML EVN

Regal Flair is the morning-line favorite at even money, which means the crowd likes her — but our model rates her 76.41, a full ten points behind Kelsey Hill Girl. Trainer John J. Robb has Xavier Perez aboard, and the average speed figure of 55 is the second-best in the race. Even if you're taking Kelsey Hill Girl on top, Regal Flair is too class-consistent to leave out of the exacta, and she's the natural bridesmaid in this spot.

show3AdonciaML 10/1

Adoncia checks in at 74.06 in our model — third in the field — and trainer Renaldo Richards gives Jasmine McGuin her first mount of the evening, a booking that merits some attention. With no recorded average speed figure, Adoncia carries a degree of mystery, and in maiden claiming races that unknown factor can cut either way. At 10/1 on the morning line, she's exactly the kind of value overlay that fills out a trifecta box at a price that could make the ticket pay handsomely.

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Tonight at Charles Town, the cold air is in your favor and the dirt should be flying fast. Our top free plays — Monterrey, Professor Grace, and Hill Country — give every reader a strong starting point, and Brother Moses headlines a premium card that has legitimate multi-race ticket potential. Get the full picture before post time and make every race count. Good luck out there.

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