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Charles Town Picks & Predictions — September 25, 2026

September 25, 20268 racesAll Charles Town picks

Clear skies and 64°F at Charles Town today — about as close to a perfect September Friday as you're going to get at the track. No weather excuses, no sloppy footing to sort through. Eight races on the dirt, and the conditions are clean enough that we can trust what we see on paper.

The card is a nice mix — a pair of Maiden Special Weights bookending the midcard, claiming races at multiple distances, and a standalone Allowance in Race 7 that looks like the marquee event of the evening. There's real meat here for both the casual player looking for a single best bet and the serious multi-race bettor hunting a sequence.

TrackWiz has ratings and analysis locked in for all eight races. Three are open to every reader today, with the remaining five available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorites don't tell the whole story here — our top-rated horse opens at 8/1, suggesting sharp money could flip this claiming opener on its head.

win2CicatrizML 8/1

Cicatriz draws our top rating at 79.79 despite an 8/1 morning line, which is exactly the kind of disconnect TrackWiz analysis loves to exploit. Carlos J. Rodriguez gets the call for trainer Timothy Shanley, and with an average speed figure of 52 and a 7% career win rate that looks modest but is supported by a consistently competitive form cycle, this horse has more upside than the oddsmakers are letting on. At seven furlongs on the dirt, Cicatriz has the profile of a pace-presser who can benefit if the early speed duel sets up late. This is our best value play of the opening race.

place4Ride to RememberML 9/5

Ride to Remember is the morning line favorite at 9/5, and while our rating of 69.59 slots this horse behind Cicatriz, the 8% career win rate on a public horse in a claiming race tells you the connections know what they're doing. Nomar Arroyo Bueno gets the mount for trainer Ronney W. Brown, a combination worth tracking. If this race sets up as projected, Ride to Remember should hit the board with a high degree of reliability.

show6Equal SuccessML 2/1

Equal Success brings an 18% career win rate into this field — the highest in the race — and trainer Stacey R. Viands also saddles Dark Fury, giving the barn a two-pronged attack. At a 2/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 67.28 and an average speed of 52, Equal Success profiles as a consistent type who should be right there at the finish line for exotic purposes.

Race 2

11:32 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight at seven furlongs where the two morning line co-favorites come from completely different form profiles, and our analysis strongly sides with one of them.

win2Stettie HayesenML 8/5

Stettie Hayesen towers over this maiden field with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — the highest by a significant margin — and opens at a fair 8/5 on the morning line. Trainer Ronald G. Sigler also enters Sights On Juba, suggesting confidence in the barn's overall condition heading into this card. An average speed of 50 is respectable for a maiden at this level, and Denis Vicente Araujo is an experienced hand who can put this horse in the right spot early over seven furlongs. In a field where several rivals show no recorded speed figure at all, Stettie Hayesen's measurable edge is hard to ignore.

place7Dry Martini AgainML 7/5

Dry Martini Again opens as the co-favorite at 7/5 under trainer Kathleen O'Connell, and while TrackWiz rates this horse at 59.33 — well behind the top pick — the morning line respect is real. No recorded average speed figure means we're working with limited data, which adds some uncertainty, but Pedro L. Cotto, Jr. is a capable pilot who can guide a green horse through traffic in a maiden sprint. Keep this one in your exactas and doubles.

show6Sights On JubaML 5/1

Sights On Juba at 5/1 represents solid value from the Sigler barn, which is already represented by our top pick. A TrackWiz rating of 53.33 is the third-best in the field, and while there's no recorded speed figure to lean on, the trainer's confidence in running two horses here is a signal worth noting. In a maiden race where the bottom of the field is thin on data, Sights On Juba's rating and barn support make it a legitimate show contender for multi-race wagers.

Race 3

12:02 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Toodleswasmyname looms as a dominant favorite on paper, but the 6.5-furlong claiming distance at Charles Town can produce pace fireworks — find out if the field can make this a race.

win9ToodleswasmynameML EVN

Toodleswasmyname is the class of this field by almost every metric — a 90.0 TrackWiz rating, a 22% career win rate, the best average speed figure in the race at 53, and an even-money morning line that says the connections agree. Denis Vicente Araujo takes the mount for trainer Ronney W. Brown, a combination that shows up ready to compete. In a claiming field at 6.5 furlongs where several rivals are posting ratings in the 20s and 30s, this horse simply outclasses the competition on the numbers. Bet accordingly — but always respect the chalk's vulnerability.

place2Gold FiberML 8/1

Gold Fiber opens at 8/1 for trainer Miguel Ramos Agosto with a rating of 66.24 and a career win rate of 25% — the best win percentage in the race. Carlos J. Rodriguez is a competent jockey for a horse that has clearly won before at a solid clip. No average speed figure on record adds a layer of uncertainty, but that win rate against this kind of company keeps Gold Fiber squarely in our place ticket.

show1Valhalla's PalaceML 7/2

Valhalla's Palace at 7/2 is a legitimate contender with a 62.64 rating, a 17% career win rate, and a consistent speed figure of 52. Alexis Espinoza gets the call for trainer Jean L. Adorno, and at 6.5 furlongs — a distance that favors tactical speed — this horse fits the pace profile well. Use in exacta boxes and trifecta wheels as a reliable presence at the finish.

Our three free races tonight cover a nice spread of conditions and distance. Race 1 (7 furlongs, Claiming) gives us Cicatriz at a generous 8/1 morning line — that's the kind of overlay angle we love to surface. Race 2 is a Maiden Special Weight where Stettie Hayesen grades out as a clear class standout with an 89 TrackWiz rating and 8/5 odds that feel fair for a horse this well-regarded. Then Race 3 has Toodleswasmyname at Even Money in a 6½-furlong Claiming sprint, carrying our top rating of 90 for the night — this is the kind of short-price play you can lean on confidently.

The pace scenario across all three free races should favor horses with early tactical speed on this tight Charles Town oval, so keep an eye on post positions and early fractions when you finalize your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:32 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short-field maiden claimer at 4.5 furlongs where our top-rated horse is actually the longest shot among the leaders — and that's the value story of the race.

win1Runaway GoldML 9/2

Runaway Gold carries our highest rating in this field at 84.9 and opens at 9/2 despite being the top-rated horse — that gap between our number and the morning line is the angle TrackWiz subscribers should circle. Trainer Joseph P. Stehr sends this one out with Sunday Diaz, Jr. in the irons, and while there's no recorded average speed figure to reference, the rating differential over the field is substantial enough to command attention. At 4.5 furlongs, early speed is king, and this horse's strong rating suggests it has the raw ability to fire fresh. Best bet of the race.

place8DixiespeprmintwistML 8/5

Dixiespeprmintwist is the morning line favorite at 8/5 with a solid TrackWiz rating of 74.03, and Moises Santaella is one of the stronger riders on this card. Trainer Timothy Shanley has horses rolling tonight and puts this one in a spot where it can succeed at the short sprint distance. Even if Runaway Gold gets loose on the front end, Dixiespeprmintwist has the rating to be right there at the wire.

show6DeltawinninghandML 5/1

Deltawinninghand at 5/1 posts the best recorded average speed figure in the field at 55 — a standout number at this sprint distance. Trainer Roland P. Clement III's entry with a 71.26 rating and Abnel J. Bocachica in the saddle gives this horse a legit shot at the exotics. Pure speed matters most at 4.5 furlongs, and that 55 speed average is worth a second look.

Race 5

1:02 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A loaded claiming field at a mile and a sixteenth with a surprising form reversal hidden in the numbers — the morning line underestimates our top choice by a full tier.

win6True ConnectionML 5/1

True Connection opens at 5/1 but carries our top rating in this race at 84.17, a meaningful edge over a competitive field. Trainer Michael E. Jones, Jr. puts J.D. Acosta up, and while True Connection's 10% career win rate isn't flashy, the rating at a route distance suggests this horse has been finding the right level. At 1 1/16 miles, pace setups matter, and a horse with a strong TrackWiz number who goes off at 5/1 in a claiming race is a value play we're comfortable backing. This is our primary win bet for Race 5.

place1Head LadML 9/2

Head Lad is the most accomplished horse in this field by win rate — 25% career wins for trainer Ronney W. Brown — and a rating of 80.3 backs that up with hard data. Moises Santaella gets the mount from post 1, a workable position at a route distance on the Charles Town oval. This horse has been here before and knows how to finish, making it a strong place bet even at the 9/2 morning line.

show7Rainy SkiesML 3/1

Rainy Skies at 3/1 has a 75.14 rating and a 15% career win rate, with an average speed of 52 that matches up well with the route distance. Arnaldo Bocachica is aboard for trainer Kristy Rodriguez, and at the mile-plus distance, a confirmed closer profile — suggested by the rating and pace scenario — should land this horse in the money. Include in all exotics.

Race 6

1:32 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse maiden special weight sprint that looks like a pick-three linchpin — three horses bunch tightly at the top of our ratings while the rest of the field falls well off the pace.

win11City of BlingML 5/2

City of Bling draws the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 80.63 and opens at a reasonable 5/2 with J.D. Acosta in the irons for trainer Kevin J. Joy. That average speed figure of 56 is the best recorded number in the entire race — at a 4.5-furlong sprint where gate speed is everything, that stands out immediately. Joy also runs Chief Morter, giving the barn real two-way action and suggesting genuine confidence in the stable's condition. At 5/2, this is a horse you can bet to win without apology.

place4Chief MorterML 6/1

Chief Morter at 6/1 is the second Kevin J. Joy runner and posts a 78.76 rating with an average speed of 55 — second-best in the field. Nomar Arroyo Bueno gets the call, and with a sprint-ready speed figure and barn connections already represented by our top pick, Chief Morter is perfectly positioned to finish second if City of Bling controls the pace. This is a strong exacta play underneath the top choice.

show3Gallant CreekML 10/1

Gallant Creek opens at a juicy 10/1 with a rating of 76.88 — just a point behind Chief Morter — and an average speed of 53 for trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter. Edgar Villasmil handles the riding duties, and in a wide-open maiden sprint where the top of the field is bunched, Gallant Creek at double-digit odds is a sneaky trifecta inclusion. The rating-to-odds gap here makes this our best show value in Race 6.

Race 7

2:02 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint at 6.5 furlongs where the top two in our ratings are separated by a wide margin from the rest of the field — Coach Siggy versus Noble Ruling sets the real contest.

win4Coach SiggyML EVN

Coach Siggy comes into this allowance race with the top TrackWiz rating at 90.0 and an even-money morning line that the market has fully endorsed. The headline number here is a 40% career win rate — by far the highest in this field — which tells you this horse has been a consistent performer at a level that commands respect. Trainer Anthony Farrior sends this one out with Jeiron Barbosa aboard, and an average speed of 53 rounds out the profile of a horse that is simply operating at a different level than most of this field. Bet to win with confidence.

place7Noble RulingML 6/1

Noble Ruling at 6/1 is the clear second choice in our analysis with a 78.21 rating and a 28% career win rate — the second-best win percentage in the race. Larry C. Reynolds gets the mount for trainer Timothy C. Grams, and an average speed of 53 matches the top of the field on raw ability. If Coach Siggy is going to get beaten, Noble Ruling is the most likely beneficiary, making this an essential part of any exacta.

show1Task ForceML 8/1

Task Force opens at 8/1 with a 66.7 rating and a 14% career win rate for trainer Anthony Farrior — the same barn as Coach Siggy. The Farrior double entry at 8/1 and even money is worth noting: barns sometimes use a secondary runner to set pace or control traffic for the main hope. With Arnaldo Bocachica up and an average speed of 51, Task Force is a viable show ticket and a trifecta inclusion for bettors who want to structure the Farrior runners across the ticket.

Race 8

2:32 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A full twelve-horse claiming field at seven furlongs to close out the card — deep fields like this are where a sharp TrackWiz rating advantage really earns its keep.

win5Hurricane AlertML 4/1

Hurricane Alert is our top-rated horse in this race at 85.62 and opens at a fair 4/1 with Nomar Arroyo Bueno handling the riding duties for trainer Ronney W. Brown. A 25% career win rate is excellent for a claimer, and an average speed of 52 fits the seven-furlong distance comfortably on the Charles Town dirt. Brown has been active on this card and clearly has horses in good form — Hurricane Alert looks like the stable's best shot to close out the night with a winner. This is our strongest win play on the closing race.

place1Solomons GoldML 7/2

Solomons Gold at 7/2 brings a 23% career win rate and a 72.79 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in this deep field. Jeiron Barbosa gets the call for trainer Anthony Farrior, whose runners have shown up competitive throughout the card. An average speed of 52 is right in line with the pace scenario at seven furlongs, and a horse with this win rate in claiming company reliably finds the board. Solid exacta partner underneath Hurricane Alert.

show7Yankee Doodle KidML 5/1

Yankee Doodle Kid is the standout value in this field — a 40% career win rate is the highest number in the entire race, and the 5/1 morning line seems to undervalue that pedigree of consistency. Maximo Chilo rides for trainer Vanessa Peltroche, and an average speed of 52 puts this horse right in the mix on raw ability. A 69.06 rating slots Yankee Doodle Kid third in our rankings, which lines up neatly with the show position — use this one liberally in trifectas and superfectas to close out your night.

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Bottom line: Charles Town is dealing a clean, fast card tonight under ideal conditions. Toodleswasmyname and Coach Sighy are the two horses we'd most want in our corner, and Cicatriz at 8/1 in the opener is worth a hard look as a value play. The full eight-race breakdown — including pace projections and exotic ticket structures — is waiting for subscribers. Check out TrackWiz Premium and get the complete picture before first post.

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