Charles Town Picks & Predictions — September 10, 2026

Grandpa Joe is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 and backs it up with a 67.68 rating, good for second in the field. Trainer M. Joanna Boggs puts Christian Hiraldo on board, and the 11% career win rate is consistent with this claiming level. With an average speed figure of 52 and experience at this distance, Grandpa Joe is a logical pairing with Arie Ferrari in exactas.

Bull Rider rates 58.07 and brings a respectable average speed figure of 53 — the highest in the field — which suggests he can generate pace early over the 6 1/2-furlong trip. Trainer Isaac Barahona has Fredy Peltroche up at 3/1, and the 11% career win rate keeps this one honest. The above-average speed figure is worth noting when pace scenarios are unclear, making Bull Rider a solid show-ticket inclusion.

Lovely Odds rates second in the field at 77.09 and brings a 20% career win rate — the second-highest in the race — under trainer Timothy Shanley and jockey Denis Vicente Araujo. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and an average speed figure of 52 puts her right in the mix on ability. She's the type of solid, experienced claimer that holds place spots in these seven-furlong dirt races, and she pairs perfectly with Moon Rox in the exacta.

Modest Kay is the public choice at 9/5 and has a 12% career win rate with an average speed figure of 52, which explains the market affection. Even if our ratings suggest she's being slightly overbet at the top of the market, she's still good enough to finish third in a race like this. She makes sense as a show hedge and a trifecta piece, even if we're using Moon Rox as the key on top.

Axel Foley is the most interesting horse in the race when you stack the numbers: a 71.21 TrackWiz rating, a 25% career win rate — best in the field by a significant margin — and an average speed figure of 54, which is the highest in the race. Trainer Kristy Rodriguez sends Reshawn Latchman out at 4/1, and that combination of high win rate and strong speed figure suggests a horse capable of running well on a consistent basis. He profiles as a prime exacta threat underneath Hamdoun.

Cat Fast carries the 8/5 morning-line tag and gets Jeiron Barbosa for trainer Anthony Farrior, which will attract heavy public money. A 69.46 TrackWiz rating places her third in the field and the average speed figure of 53 is solid. Even if she's getting beat at a short price, she's talented enough to grab third money, and including her in trifectas is prudent — just don't let the public's enthusiasm push you off the better-priced options on top.

Knock Knock rates 84.17 — just three points behind our top pick — and gets Jahnxander Raspaldo for trainer Ernest M. Haynes at a 5/1 morning line, which offers legitimate overlay value. A 12% career win rate is modest but the speed figure of 53 matches the top horses in the field, and this one could easily outrun the morning-line number. In a race where the top four are separated by just four rating points, Knock Knock is a prime candidate to hit the board.

Maskedandmummed brings the most impressive career win rate in the field at 36% — a truly standout figure that suggests a horse who fires consistently — and rates 82.94, third-best in the race. Antonio Lopez takes the mount for trainer Ronald G. Sigler at 5/1, and the 53 average speed figure ties for field-best. That career win percentage is the kind of angle you build trifecta tickets around, and Maskedandmummed is a strong show-ticket anchor in what shapes up as a wide-open allowance.

Royal Pain gets the public's respect at 7/5 and the 26% career win rate is legitimately impressive — second-best in the field behind only No Love for Juba. Arnaldo Bocachica is a quality booking for trainer David Walters, and while the TrackWiz rating of 69.26 ranks third in the race, the horse's consistency profile makes a place finish highly plausible. Using Royal Pain underneath Logstradamus in exactas provides a structured payout with reasonable probability.

Lord of Cork sits at 6/1 on the morning line and rates 55.71 with a 10% career win rate, which is modest but functional at this class level. Warren Ebow III gets the call for trainer Edward T. Schottroffe, and the average speed figure of 53 matches the top horses in the field, suggesting Lord of Cork can keep up with the pace. That 6/1 morning line makes him a legitimate trifecta piece with some payout upside if the top two run their race.

Rock n'Opportunity rates second in the field at 66.04 with an average speed figure of 51 and opens as the 2/1 morning-line choice — so the public clearly prefers this one over stablemate Walk On Broadway. Nomar Arroyo Bueno gets the mount for the Brown barn, and that public support isn't without merit. Even if our model slightly prefers Walk On Broadway, Rock n'Opportunity is talented enough to secure a place finish and is worth including in all exotic combinations.

Moonlight Candy rates 57.5 and gets Jeiron Barbosa for trainer Anthony Farrior at a 5/2 morning line. The average speed figure of 51 gives this horse at least some tangible form data in a field full of first-time starters with no speed figures on record, which is a meaningful edge in a maiden sprint. At 5/2, the price is short enough to reflect some public confidence, and Moonlight Candy looks like a safe trifecta inclusion underneath the top two picks.