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Charles Town Picks & Predictions — August 22, 2026

August 22, 20268 racesAll Charles Town picks

Charles Town is rolling out an 8-race Saturday card under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 76°F — ideal conditions for a full afternoon of dirt racing at one of the East Coast's most action-packed bullring tracks. No rain concerns, no off-track excuses. Just raw speed figures, pace matchups, and horses that either can or can't.

The card is a mix of maiden claimers, straight claimers, a Starter Optional Claiming, and an Allowance — meaning there's plenty of class movement to exploit if you know where to look. Three races up top are free for every TrackWiz reader, and five premium races round out the full card for subscribers.

A few names jumped out immediately in our analysis — including a morning-line longshot in Race 5 that's worth a serious look, and a strong favorite in Race 4 that our ratings back up with conviction. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer at 4.5 furlongs where two horses carry meaningful speed figures and four others are first-timers or near-blanks — the top of this field is clear, but the bottom is a mystery.

win2In the CloudML 2/1

In the Cloud draws our top rating at 88.54 in a field where no one else cracks 80, and that gap is significant in a maiden claimer. The 2/1 morning line reflects public respect, but the TrackWiz model sees this as a legitimate edge, not just chalk. Nomar Arroyo Bueno gets the call, and pairing a capable jockey with the class of the field at a short sprint gives this horse a strong profile. The avg speed of 52 is middle-of-the-pack, but the overall rating separation here is what drives the selection.

place3Gallant CreekML 6/1

Gallant Creek is the one horse in the field that actually grades out slightly better on avg speed (54) than our top pick, making this a logical place contender if In the Cloud has any traffic issues out of the gate. Edgar Villasmil takes the mount, and at 6/1 on the morning line, there's a real overlay opportunity here for exacta players. The 79.96 TrackWiz rating is the second-best in the field — this horse belongs in your exotics.

show4Super BankerML 5/1

Super Banker sits third in our model at 68.25 and offers a natural hedge at 5/1. Jacqueline A. Davis rides for the Aylor barn — notably the same operation that saddles Twister City in the one-hole — so the connections know this track well. With zero avg speed data on file, there's some uncertainty, but the rating alone justifies a show slot in a wide-open maiden field.

Race 2

11:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't our top-rated horse here — Cicatriz grades out well above the field in a claiming sprint where the pace could get honest with multiple speed types.

win3CicatrizML 9/2

Cicatriz tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 despite carrying a 9/2 morning line, which is exactly the kind of price discrepancy worth exploiting. The 7% career win rate looks modest, but in a claiming context at Charles Town, the model's separation from the rest of the field is the more telling data point. Moises Santaella picks up the mount — he's been active on this card — and the 6.5-furlong distance suits a horse whose rating says it outclasses this group. If you're looking for a win bet with a little meat on the bone, this is the play of the early races.

place1Trouble and StrifeML 6/1

Trouble and Strife is the value angle in the place slot — a 20% career win rate is the best in this field, and that kind of hit rate in claiming company at Charles Town earns respect. The 73.28 rating and 52 avg speed are consistent, and at 6/1 on the morning line, you're getting paid to include this horse in your exacta. Trainer Mark A. Shanley has a capable runner here that the morning line may be underestimating.

show5MaidstoneML 2/1

Maidstone opens as the 2/1 favorite and carries an 18% career win rate, giving it legitimate credentials even though our model slots it third. The 71.77 rating and 53 avg speed are competitive, and Jeiron Barbosa is a live rider. For show bettors and trifecta players, Maidstone is a near-lock for the board — just not necessarily the winner our model sees.

Race 3

12:02 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses are bunched within four points at the top of the TrackWiz model, and the morning line has them going off in a completely different order — this race sets up as a real handicapper's puzzle at 6.5 furlongs.

win5Honey I'm BrokeML 5/1

Honey I'm Broke tops our model at 84.17 despite a 5/1 morning line that suggests the public sees this as a secondary contender. Trainer Ronney W. Brown also saddles Additional Factor in this race, which is worth noting — Brown is confident enough to enter two horses, and Honey I'm Broke is the one the ratings favor. An 11% career win rate paired with a 51 avg speed and the top TrackWiz score make this the selection, and Moises Santaella's experience in the irons is a bonus.

place3AmamaML 8/5

Amama is within a fraction of the top rating at 83.86 and gets the 8/5 morning line respect — so this is clearly a horse the crowd likes too. The 52 avg speed is solid for 6.5 furlongs, and Angel Cruz is a dependable hand. The case for place over win comes down to value: at nearly even money, Amama may be slightly short to bet on the nose, but it belongs in every exacta and trifecta you write.

show1Additional FactorML 2/1

Additional Factor at 2/1 has an 80.88 rating and an 11% career win rate that mirrors Honey I'm Broke's — the difference is the model giving Honey I'm Broke the edge, not a significant talent gap. Nomar Arroyo Bueno rides, and he's had a busy night on this card. The 54 avg speed is the best in the field, which hints at raw ability, and the show slot here is really just an exotic hedge given how tightly these three grade out.

The first three races give us a solid foundation to work with. In the Cloud opens the card in a short 4½-furlong maiden claimer — a sprint distance where gate speed is everything at Charles Town, and our 88.54 rating makes this one of the stronger top-pick scores on the free portion of the card. In Race 2, Cicatriz draws attention at 9/2 morning line in a 6½-furlong claimer — a price worth respecting given the rating and the class dynamics at play. Race 3 brings Honey I'm Broke at 5/1, a name that's easy to love and a pick our model scored at 84.17, suggesting there's legitimate ability behind that morning line.

The theme across these three free races is pace — Charles Town's tight turns reward horses that can establish position early without burning out, and all three of our free picks project well in that context. Speed on the inside, clean trips, and no traffic trouble goes a long way at this track.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:32 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Symptomatic draws the top rating and the favorite's tab, but R Special's 20% career win rate and a capable jockey make the show position look like more than just filler — there's a legitimate secondary battle here.

win1SymptomaticML 8/5

Symptomatic leads the TrackWiz model at 89.12 with a 13% career win rate and a 53 avg speed that sits near the top of this field. The 8/5 morning line is fair for a horse grading out this clearly above its rivals in a seven-furlong claiming route. Walter Cullum takes the mount for trainer Sherry L. Jackson, and the horse's combination of raw rating and pace-friendly speed figure makes it the straightforward top selection. This is the kind of race where the model and the market agree — trust both.

place3Lil Miss HonkytonkML 5/2

Lil Miss Honkytonk has a 15% career win rate and a 74.37 TrackWiz rating that makes her the clear second-best in our model. Angel Cruz rides for trainer Jamie D. Collyer, and the 5/2 morning line reflects genuine public confidence. The 51 avg speed is a tick below Symptomatic's, but in a claiming route where pace often determines order of finish, a stalker profile could put this filly in the right spot late.

show6R SpecialML 3/1

R Special brings a 20% career win rate — the highest in the entire field — and that kind of sustained consistency in claiming ranks demands attention. Jose Y. Diaz has the mount, and the 52 avg speed and 70.14 rating suggest a horse that knows how to compete. At 3/1, this is a legitimate show anchor and an essential piece for trifecta players who want a defensible third leg.

Race 5

1:02 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Ridethelightning opens as a heavy 3/5 favorite in this maiden claimer, but our model tells a very different story — Adoncia tops the ratings at nearly 14 points clear of the crowd's choice, setting up a potential big-price upset.

win1AdonciaML 12/1

Adoncia is our top-rated horse at 73.96 and the morning line has her at 12/1 — that's a genuine overlay by any measure and the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis is built to find. Jeiron Barbosa picks up the mount for trainer Renaldo Richards, and the 50 avg speed is modest but not disqualifying in a short maiden sprint. The key here is the rating gap over the favorite: 73.96 vs. Ridethelightning's 60.00. In maiden races, speed figures and model ratings carry extra weight when there's limited prior form to evaluate — and Adoncia's profile says she's being overlooked.

place2Person of InterestML 6/1

Person of Interest grades out second in our model at 62.63 with a 51 avg speed, making this a logical exacta partner with our top pick. Moises Santaella rides for trainer Timothy Shanley, a barn that's active all night on this card. At 6/1, the place price should be generous if Adoncia does run big at the top of the ticket.

show5RidethelightningML 3/5

Ridethelightning is the heavy chalk at 3/5 and carries the best avg speed figure in the field (56), so dismissing it entirely would be a mistake. The 60.00 TrackWiz rating is third in our model — respectable, just not first. Abnel J. Bocachica rides for Tyler S. Shanley, and this horse will likely set or sit near the pace at 4.5 furlongs. Including it in the show spot is more about covering the favorite than making a value argument.

Race 6

1:32 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Nola Boss dominates the TrackWiz model in this Starter Optional Claiming route, but the value angle is Larz at 8/1 — a horse grading out fourth-best by morning line but second-best by our ratings.

win5Nola BossML 2/1

Nola Boss leads the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a 19% career win rate — both figures stand comfortably above the competition. The 53 avg speed matches the top performers in this group, and Moises Santaella takes the mount for trainer Ronney W. Brown, who also saddles Larz. At 2/1 on the morning line, you're not getting rich on the win bet, but the rating separation here is real — this horse is graded out roughly 14 points clear of the next-best, Juba's Notion. When a horse tops the model by that margin in a starter optional claiming field, you play it.

place4LarzML 8/1

Larz is the value play of this race. The 8/1 morning line wildly understates a 74.73 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field, and Nomar Arroyo Bueno is a capable pilot. Trainer Ronney W. Brown running two horses — Nola Boss and Larz — signals confidence in both, and Larz's 52 avg speed with a 15% career win rate is a respectable resume for this level. If Nola Boss leads and Larz tracks, this could be an easy exacta.

show3Juba's NotionML 8/5

Juba's Notion is the morning-line favorite's stablemate through trainer Vanessa Peltroche, and both the 25% career win rate and 62.12 TrackWiz rating suggest this is a genuine contender. Fredy Peltroche rides, and the 53 avg speed ties for tops in the field. The show slot makes sense as an exotic anchor, though the 8/5 morning line means you're paying for it — use Juba's Notion in trifectas and exacta boxes rather than betting it straight.

Race 7

2:02 AM EDT

Allowance · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint where the top three in our model all have strong cases, but the headline is Love the Lad's 40% career win rate — in short-field allowance racing, that kind of hit rate changes the conversation entirely.

win1Love the LadML 5/2

Love the Lad checks every box: top TrackWiz rating at 87.81, a jaw-dropping 40% career win rate, and the 5/2 morning line offers fair value in a six-horse allowance field. Larry C. Reynolds rides for trainer Timothy C. Grams — who also saddles Little Maggie in the five-hole — and the 51 avg speed at 4.5 furlongs is consistent and proven. A 40% win rate in career starts is genuinely elite for any level of horse racing; the model backing that up with the top rating makes this a confident top selection.

place3Truth and JusticeML 9/5

Truth and Justice is the 9/5 morning-line favorite and carries a respectable 81.15 TrackWiz rating with a 52 avg speed that edges Love the Lad. The 16% career win rate is more modest, but Sunday Diaz, Jr. picks up the mount for trainer Cynthia E. McKee, and the public clearly respects this horse enough to send it off favored. Our model disagrees slightly on the win hierarchy, but Truth and Justice is absolutely a legitimate place contender and belongs on your ticket.

show6Priority OneML 7/2

Priority One at 7/2 carries a 40% career win rate — matching Love the Lad's elite hit rate — and a 75.38 TrackWiz rating that puts it third in the model. Jeiron Barbosa rides for Anthony Farrior, a trainer who's active on this card. The 7/2 morning line in an allowance with two higher-rated horses above it makes Priority One an interesting show play and a strong trifecta inclusion for players who want sustained form backing their third leg.

Race 8

2:32 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse maiden special weight field at 4.5 furlongs with a massive spread in our ratings — Fake Strolling and Stella's Candy separate from the pack, while the bottom half of the field grades out as significant longshots.

win7Fake StrollingML 5/2

Fake Strolling tops the TrackWiz model at 74.75 in a field where the second-best rating is 69.63 — a meaningful gap in a wide-open maiden field. Gustavo Larrosa gets the mount for trainer Analia R. Gomez, and the 51 avg speed provides a legitimate baseline at 4.5 furlongs. The 5/2 morning line is fair for the top-rated horse but not punishingly short — this is a solid win bet in a race where our model has genuine conviction at the top.

place4Stella's CandyML 8/1

Stella's Candy is the value angle of this race — an 8/1 morning line on the second-best rated horse at 69.63 is a clear overlay. Victor Rodriguez rides for trainer Tonya M. O'Neill, and the 51 avg speed matches Fake Strolling's. In a ten-horse maiden field with significant uncertainty throughout, getting the second-best horse at 8/1 to place is exactly the kind of spot that pays off over time — make sure Stella's Candy is in every exacta you write.

show1Lil PegasusML 3/1

Lil Pegasus opens at 3/1 for trainer Timothy M. Collins with Fredy Peltroche aboard. The 56.67 TrackWiz rating is third in the field, and while there's no avg speed data on file, the model's read on this horse is noticeably above the mid-pack. In a wide-open maiden special weight with ten runners, having the third-rated horse at 3/1 in the show slot gives trifecta players a defensible anchor — there's enough support here to make the exotics worth writing.

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Bottom line: this is a sharp 8-race card with real opportunities on both ends of the morning line. In the Cloud, Cicatriz, and Honey I'm Broke anchor the free picks, while Symptomatic and the 12/1 price on Adoncia headline the premium side. Good weather, a fast track, and a full card — it's a good day to be at Charles Town. Full analysis for all 8 races is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there, and bet smart.

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