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Charles Town Picks & Predictions — August 13, 2026

August 13, 20268 racesAll Charles Town picks

It's a warm Thursday evening at Charles Town with partly cloudy skies and temperatures sitting around 83°F — about as comfortable as a mid-August West Virginia night gets. Eight races are on the slate tonight, all on a dirt surface that figures to play fast given the dry conditions.

The card is a nice mix: a pair of Allowance Optional Claimers bookending the middle of the card, three Claiming events, two Maiden Special Weights for the freshmen watchers, and a straight Allowance that shapes up as one of the more competitive races of the night. Plenty of angles to work with regardless of your style.

TrackWiz analysis covers all eight races, with the first three free for every reader. Let's break down what to watch for tonight at the Charles Town oval.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A heavy favorite towers over this short allowance optional claiming sprint, but there's legitimate secondary value in the mid-field if the chalk stumbles.

win5AmidshipsML 3/5

Amidships opens as a heavy 3/5 favorite and backs it up with a TrackWiz rating of 90 — the highest mark in the field by a wide margin. A 24% career win rate is exceptional at this level, and with no meaningful speed opposition to push the pace in a 4.5-furlong sprint, this horse should get a comfortable trip on the front end. Jeff Runco is a savvy trainer who knows how to spot horses in spots they can dominate, and this looks like one of those spots.

place6Boss E BoogsML 4/1

Boss E Boogs at 4/1 is the most logical beneficiary if anything goes sideways with the chalk. An 18% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 75.24 give this horse a clear edge over the rest of the field, and trainer Tabitha Wilhelm has shown a knack for finding competitive spots. In an Allowance Optional Claiming race where hidden form can surface, this one is worth keying underneath.

show2El PachoML 5/1

El Pacho drew program number 2 and goes postward at 5/1 with a rating of 73.78 — third-best in the field. The zero avgSpeed flag suggests limited recent data, which adds some mystery but also some risk. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's enough value here to slot into the exotics as a show play or trifecta piece.

Race 2

11:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Two horses separate themselves from an otherwise thin claiming field over seven furlongs, setting up a potential one-two punch at the top of the ticket.

win2Arie FerrariML 9/5

Arie Ferrari is the standout here with a 33% career win rate — the kind of number that demands respect in a claiming field — and a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 that towers over most of the competition. The 9/5 morning line reflects public confidence, but the underlying numbers justify the price. Trainer Timothy Shanley puts runners in spots to succeed, and Jahnxander Raspaldo getting the call in the irons is a positive combination for this seven-furlong test.

place1Grandpa JoeML 5/2

Grandpa Joe has the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 81.03 and shows an average speed figure of 53 — slightly ahead of several rivals. The 5/2 morning line is fair value for a horse that Christian Hiraldo should be able to put in a stalking position behind the early pace. If anything challenges Arie Ferrari too hard up front, Grandpa Joe could be closing with authority in the stretch.

show5Ed's ProphecyML 7/2

Ed's Prophecy at 7/2 rounds out the ticket as a legitimate third-best option in this field with a rating of 59.76. Trainer Javier Contreras saddles two horses in this race, which tells you the stable is comfortable here. An average speed of 52 — right in the middle of the pack — suggests this one won't embarrass itself and is worth including in trifecta combinations.

Race 3

12:02 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An all-maiden field over 6.5 furlongs means form is uncertain by definition, but one horse stands out on raw ratings while a big-priced contender makes for a compelling exacta bottom.

win3LookinforjoybalooML 4/1

Lookinforjoybaloo (No. 3) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.86 — a significant edge in a maiden special weight where separating horses is notoriously difficult. Despite a 4/1 morning line, our analysis marks this as the clear top choice, and Reshawn Latchman is a capable pilot to navigate a maiden field. An average speed of 52 is modest but workable for this distance, and trainer Kelton Brown's spot selection here looks sharp.

place6Starship PolarisML 15/1

Here's where it gets interesting: Starship Polaris opens at 15/1 on the morning line but checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 69.58 — well above several horses listed at much shorter odds. That's a significant pricing discrepancy. In maiden races where public handicappers lean heavily on connections and breeding, these kinds of hidden value horses can surface at a juicy price and make exactas very profitable.

show4Spring TrainingML 7/2

Spring Training at 7/2 has the third-best rating in the field at 57.37 and posts an average speed of 54 — tied for the best mark in the race. Trainer Phillip Capuano is a name worth noting, and Carlos Eduardo Lopez keeps the ride. This horse figures to be forwardly placed in a maiden sprint and should be a legitimate threat to finish in the top three.

The first three races give us a solid starter kit for the card. Race 1 is headlined by Amidships, who opens as a heavy 3/5 morning-line favorite in an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint at 4½ furlongs — short enough that gate speed and early positioning are everything. Our top rating of 90 on this horse is the highest mark we've assigned to any single runner tonight, so the confidence is real even if the price stings.

Race 2 stretches to 7 furlongs in a Claiming field where Arie Ferrari earns the nod at 9/5 on the morning line with an 88.83 rating — sharp enough to command respect. Then comes the intrigue of Race 3, a 6½-furlong Maiden Special Weight where Lookinforjoybaloo surfaces as our top pick at 4/1. MSW races are the most unpredictable on any card, but a top-rated horse sitting at morning-line odds north of 3/1 is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz looks for. Pace scenario across these early races leans toward front-runners on what projects to be a quick dirt surface tonight.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:32 AM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

Don't let the morning line fool you — the public money is pointing to one horse, but TrackWiz analysis sees real value at a far more generous price.

win5Tornado WarningML 9/2

Tornado Warning checks in at 9/2 on the morning line but carries the highest TrackWiz rating in this allowance field at 84.90 — that's a significant mismatch between public perception and our model. A 33% career win rate is standout production for an allowance horse, and trainer Jeff Runco saddles this one just as he does the odds-on Unified Command, which gives the barn options. Jockey Jahnxander Raspaldo is aboard and has been in good form. When a 33% career winner is available at nearly 5-1, you take that value.

place6Fiber ProofML 7/5

Fiber Proof is listed as the 7/5 second choice with a TrackWiz rating of 73.63, which is solid but noticeably behind Tornado Warning's mark. A 5% career win rate may raise eyebrows on paper, but Moises Santaella is a reliable hand and trainer Michael Jones Jr. knows this circuit well. Fiber Proof's average speed of 53 matches Bonds Revenge for best in the field, making it a logical place play underneath.

show4Bonds RevengeML 10/1

Bonds Revenge at 10/1 is a sneaky-good show play with a TrackWiz rating of 62.77 and the best average speed figure in the field at 53. Career win percentage of just 5% is low, but Nomar Arroyo Bueno is one of the sharper riders in the colony and could coax a top-three effort here. At double-digit odds in a short field, this one adds real value to a trifecta.

Race 5

1:02 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A competitive claiming field goes a mile and a sixteenth, and our top-rated horse checks in as a mid-priced overlay against the morning-line favorite.

win4Smoked PeachML 5/2

Smoked Peach deserves serious respect here — a 27% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 rank this horse well above the competition, yet the 5/2 morning line suggests the public isn't fully on board. That's the kind of overlay that wins long-term bets. Moises Santaella gets the call for trainer Ronney Brown, and the added distance of a mile and a sixteenth over dirt should play to this horse's profile as a proven winner who doesn't need to lead.

place3Close UpML 9/2

Close Up is an interesting alternative at 9/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 72.53 and an average speed of 53 — among the best in the field. Trainer Vanessa Peltroche and jockey Fredy Peltroche are a family combination that keeps things tight-knit, and there's something to be said for a connected barn with motivated connections. A 12% career win rate is modest, but the underlying speed numbers suggest more talent than that figure implies.

show1Rare RubyML 6/1

Rare Ruby brings a strong 22% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 70.67 into this spot at 6/1 — making it a legitimate third-wheel option in the exotics. Trainer Timothy Shanley is plugging this one into a prime spot, and an average speed of 52 is right in the competitive range for this field. At morning-line 6/1, the show price could be generous if the late money doesn't push it down.

Race 6

1:32 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A first-time starter maiden sprint with no career speed figures to lean on — this race is about pedigree projections and trainer patterns, and one horse stands out sharply on ratings alone.

win6Knight SageML 9/5

Knight Sage opens as the 9/5 favorite and backs it up with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.83 — a commanding mark in a debut-heavy maiden dash. Trainer Timothy Grams puts out a well-prepared runner, and Larry Reynolds is a seasoned hand who excels in getting young horses positioned correctly in short sprints. With no average speed data available for any horse in this field, our model's edge over the consensus here is meaningful.

place2Bird and MagicML 7/2

Bird and Magic at 7/2 grades out as the second-best horse on TrackWiz ratings at 55.83 — just a hair above several rivals but enough to justify a place ticket. Trainer David Walters and jockey Jeiron Barbosa are a steady combination, and in a debut sprint where pace confusion is common, a horse with solid underlying ratings can find its way to the board without much fuss.

show1Brother MosesML 4/1

Brother Moses opens at 4/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 55.00 — nearly identical to Bird and Magic — making this race very tight for the second and third spots. Trainer Timothy Collins and jockey Fredy Peltroche give this horse a professional team for its debut. In a race this murky on maiden form, the 4/1 morning line on a horse rated this closely to the second pick makes for a solid show play or trifecta inclusion.

Race 7

2:02 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tight allowance optional claiming sprint features two horses with legitimate top-end ratings going head-to-head, while a third offers fair value underneath.

win3Bold BoomerML 7/2

Bold Boomer rates highest in this field at 86.35 on TrackWiz and goes off at 7/2 — a price that should attract sharp money once the board opens. Trainer Tabitha Wilhelm has been running horses well in these short Charles Town sprints, and Anthony Mawing gets the mount. A 16% career win rate is steady, and with no recent speed figure available suggesting a fresh or lightly raced profile, there's upside to uncover here.

place2Hey BootsML 3/1

Hey Boots is the standout value angle in this race — a 38% career win rate is exceptional and arguably the most impressive stat on today's entire card. The 3/1 morning line reflects legitimate respect from the public, and trainer Michael Jones Jr. with Reshawn Latchman aboard is a sharp combination on the Charles Town circuit. A rating of 83.58 is close enough to the top pick to make this a near-coin-flip for the lead spot.

show6Cajun JoeML 5/1

Cajun Joe at 5/1 rounds out the ticket with a TrackWiz rating of 79.49 and an average speed of 53 — one of the better speed figures in this field. Trainer Manolo Mangual has this one in a competitive spot, and Jeiron Barbosa is a capable jockey who can get horses into contention early in short sprints. The 5/1 price makes Cajun Joe a worthwhile trifecta inclusion if the top two lock up the top positions.

Race 8

2:32 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The biggest field of the night — eleven horses in a seven-furlong claiming race — sets up a scrambled early pace and rewards horses who can rate off traffic and close with authority.

win6HamdounML 4/1

Hamdoun is our top pick at 4/1 with the highest TrackWiz rating on the board at 85.62. Trainer Adam King has this horse pointed at a prime spot, and Carlos Eduardo Lopez — an active and capable rider — gets the assignment. A 7% career win rate looks modest on the surface, but in a large claiming field with pace likely to set up for closers, the underlying rating suggests this horse is significantly better than its win percentage implies.

place1JakerML 5/1

Jaker is right there at 5/1 with a rating of 80.42 and a 9% career win rate — solid numbers for the claiming ranks. Trainer Ronney Brown and jockey Moises Santaella form a reliable combo on this oval, and an average speed of 52 keeps Jaker competitive in the speed figure department. In an 11-horse field, a horse with this kind of rating profile at 5/1 is exactly the type you want in an exacta box.

show7AbdicateML 9/2

Abdicate at 9/2 brings a TrackWiz rating of 73.33 from trainer Jeff Runco — one of the top conditioners on the card today. Jahnxander Raspaldo's name in the irons is a positive addition, and while a 10% career win rate is modest, Runco horses tend to be competitive even when they don't win. In a wide-open 11-horse field, this one fits cleanly as a trifecta piece at a fair price.

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Tonight's Charles Town card has something for everyone — a heavy chalk in Race 1 to anchor your singles, a live longshot in the Race 3 MSW, and a full slate of premium races where our pace analysis and exotic strategies could really pay off. Amidships is the marquee name, but don't sleep on Lookinforjoybaloo at a price in Race 3. For the full eight-race breakdown, subscribers have everything they need — visit /pricing to join and get in before first post. Good luck out there tonight.

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