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Charles Town Picks & Predictions — July 31, 2026

July 31, 20268 racesAll Charles Town picks

Charles Town is rolling out an 8-race Friday card on July 31, and conditions couldn't be much cleaner — clear skies, 83°F, and a fast dirt surface primed for honest speed figures. When the weather cooperates like this at CTW, you tend to get true running lines and reliable splits, which makes handicapping a whole lot more straightforward.

Tonight's card mixes claiming company, maiden contests, and a pair of Allowance spots that should draw some of the better local stock. Whether you're building a Pick 4 ticket or just looking for a couple of solid win plays to anchor your night, there's plenty here to work with across all eight races.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short 4 1/2-furlong sprint where the morning-line favorite and the even-money shot set up a two-horse battle, but our ratings reveal a significant gap between the top pick and the field.

win5Chelsea's DreamML 8/5

Chelsea's Dream tops our ratings at 89.12 — a full 13 points clear of the next-closest horse — and the 8/5 morning line reflects the public's agreement. Trainer Timothy Shanley puts out a 16% career win rate with this horse, a solid mark at this level. Jockey Moises Santaella takes the call, and in a short sprint like this, getting away cleanly from post 5 should allow this horse to settle into a comfortable trip. At 8/5, the price isn't juicy, but the form makes this a confident top selection.

place2Another Fine JubaML 8/1

Another Fine Juba at 8/1 is a genuine overlay if the numbers hold up — a TrackWiz rating of 76.33 is the second-highest in the field by a meaningful margin, and trainer Wade S. Sanderson gets the mount to Wilfredo Santiago. The morning line looks generous for a horse rated this well, making the place spot a strong value entry in any exacta or multi-race wager.

show4Ruby BayML 10/1

Ruby Bay checks in with a 74.31 rating and a 15% career win percentage — the best win rate among the non-favorites in this field. Tyler S. Shanley trains and Jose Y. Diaz rides, a pairing worth noting at Charles Town. At 10/1 on the morning line, Ruby Bay rounds out the exotics nicely and gives you some insurance if the race gets messy up front.

Race 2

11:32 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An MSW (Maiden Special Weight) sprint going 6 1/2 furlongs where the morning-line favorite sits at just 2/1 but our analysis points to a different horse as the clear top pick — making this an intriguing value spot.

win1LolitaML 7/2

Lolita opens at 7/2 but carries our top rating of 77.06 — a notable gap above the rest of the field — while the morning-line favorite checks in significantly lower by our metrics. Trainer Javier Contreras sends her out with Reshawn Latchman in the irons, and her recorded average speed figure of 51 gives her measurable form to evaluate in a field where several rivals show no speed data at all. In maiden races, having any documented form is an edge, and Lolita's profile suggests she's ready to graduate.

place5PaynoworpaylaterML 2/1

Paynoworpaylater is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and holds an average speed of 52 — the highest recorded figure in the field — which tells you she has the raw talent to compete. Trainer Ronney W. Brown and jockey Moises Santaella are a familiar combination at this meet, and the public money will be here. She's solid for the place slot, but the TrackWiz rating of 58.33 suggests Lolita has a meaningful edge in the win spot.

show2LisolaML 5/2

Lisola opens at 5/2 for trainer Kristy Gazzier and sits third in our ratings at 57.50, just a whisker behind Paynoworpaylater. The 5/2 price makes her a reasonable show candidate, and with no speed figure available to evaluate, there's some projection baked into her morning line — which means she could outrun it or underperform. She's a sensible hedge in the show position for exacta and trifecta players.

Race 3

12:02 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The even-money morning-line shot Preshow Hype looms as a heavy class presence in this claiming sprint, but Count the Flowers off the outside offers the most compelling resistance at a fair price.

win7Preshow HypeML EVN

Preshow Hype is the standout here with a TrackWiz rating of 90 — the highest mark in this entire race — and the even-money morning line confirms the market respects this horse's form. Jockey Moises Santaella rides for trainer Ronney W. Brown, a pairing that keeps showing up in the winner's circle at this meet. An average speed of 52 is competitive for this 6 1/2-furlong claiming affair, and at even money, the question is simply whether the public has this right — our numbers say yes.

place1Count the FlowersML 3/1

Count the Flowers opens at 3/1 with the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 66.70, which is a significant drop-off from Preshow Hype but still well clear of the rest. Trainer Michael G. Atkins sends her out from post 1 with Jacqueline A. Davis aboard, giving her a ground-saving trip along the rail. The 3/1 morning line is a fair price for a horse rated this far above mid-pack, and she profiles as the most likely horse to run second.

show2Saucy BossML 10/1

Saucy Boss might look like an odd show pick at 10/1, but her TrackWiz rating of 49.36 puts her third in the field and she carries a 7% career win rate — matching Alice's Moon and ahead of several rivals. Trainer Timothy Shanley and jockey Abnel J. Bocachica know this track well, and in a field where many horses rate in the 37-46 range, Saucy Boss has just enough of an edge to sneak into the exotics. The 10/1 morning line makes her a value-add in any trifecta construction.

We're giving you full breakdowns on the first three races at no cost. Race 1 features Chelsea's Dream as our top pick at 8/5 on the morning line — she's got the profile of a horse that should control this 4.5-furlong sprint from the front. In the Race 2 Maiden Special Weight at 6.5 furlongs, Lolita grades out as our top selection at 7/2, making her a nice value target in a wide-open maiden field. Then Race 3 brings Preshow Hype to even money in the claiming sprint — our model rates her a 90, one of the highest marks on the card, and even-money chalk can be worth backing when the numbers justify it.

One thread connecting these three early races: all are dirt sprints, and on a clear, fast Charles Town strip, early pace figures to be rewarded. Horses that can establish position within the first quarter-mile have a meaningful edge on this course, and all three of our free picks project favorably on the pace scenario front.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:32 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

This Allowance Optional Claiming at 6 1/2 furlongs features a competitive pace scenario with multiple speed figures in the mid-50s, but two horses rated well into the 80s separate themselves from a closely matched middle group.

win6BurlsworthML 3/1

Burlsworth leads all horses in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and an average speed of 55 — the highest in the race — while carrying a 17% career win percentage at the allowance level. Trainer Kevin J. Joy gets Arnaldo Bocachica in the irons, a veteran pairing at Charles Town. Opening at 3/1, Burlsworth represents real value given his speed edge, and the pace scenario at 6 1/2 furlongs should set up well for a horse with his raw figures. This is our top selection in one of the card's premium races.

place5Pudge Boy PalaceML 4/1

Pudge Boy Palace sits just a tick below at 85.62 in our ratings and posts an average speed of 54 alongside a strong 18% career win rate. Trainer Ronney W. Brown has been active throughout this card, and Nomar Arroyo Bueno aboard adds a reliable pilot. At 4/1 on the morning line, Pudge Boy Palace is a strong place contender — if anything goes sideways with Burlsworth, this horse is positioned to capitalize and offers excellent exacta value in reverse.

show1ChanceML 5/2

Chance opens at 5/2 and carries a TrackWiz rating of 75.87 with an average speed of 53 and a 13% career win rate — modest by comparison to the top two, but solid enough to compete for a spot. Trainer Michael L. Catalano, Jr. sends him out from the rail with Reshawn Latchman, which gives him a clean look to get position early in a race that could see early pace pressure. He's the logical show anchor in exotics given his morning-line price and consistent form profile.

Race 5

1:02 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A Maiden Claiming sprint at 4 1/2 furlongs where the morning-line chalk and our top-rated horse align — but a couple of live longshots lurk in a field of first-timers and lightly raced maidens.

win6Gallant CreekML 6/5

Gallant Creek is the dominant figure in this race with a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 — well above every other horse in the field — and an average speed of 54 that stands as the best recorded figure in the race. The 6/5 morning line reflects strong market confidence, with trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter and jockey Sunday Diaz, Jr. combining on what looks like a clear standout. In maiden claiming sprints at 4 1/2 furlongs, a horse with this kind of speed advantage rarely lets one get away at this distance.

place3B ThirstyML 3/1

B Thirsty is an interesting profile — a TrackWiz rating of 73.03 is comfortably second in the field, and while no average speed figure is available to benchmark, trainer Russell E Davis III sends her out with Jacqueline A. Davis at 3/1. That morning-line price feels about right for a horse who projects as the primary challenger. In a short sprint, if Gallant Creek encounters any traffic, B Thirsty has the rating to get to the place spot.

show4El RabanoML 7/2

El Rabano checks in third in our ratings at 62.01 with an average speed of 52 and opens at 7/2 for trainer Mark Joseph Racanelli with Alexis Rios-Conde, Jr. up. The combination of a top-three rating, a documented speed figure, and a double-digit odds price relative to ability makes El Rabano a sensible show play and a value add in the trifecta. He fills the box nicely behind two horses who both project to run well.

Race 6

1:32 AM EDT

Allowance · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

An Allowance sprint at 4 1/2 furlongs that features a heavy morning-line favorite with elite ratings, but the race behind her is surprisingly competitive with multiple horses carrying 30%-plus career win rates.

win5ThelastsayML 9/5

Thelastsay is the class of this field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 and an average speed of 54 — the only horse in the race with a documented figure at that level. Her 30% career win rate at the allowance level is a strong mark, and trainer Ronney W. Brown has been one of the busiest trainers on this card for good reason. Moises Santaella is aboard at 9/5 on the morning line — not a lot of value, but when the ratings and the pace setup both point the same direction, you play the horse.

place4Golden CirclesML 5/1

Golden Circles opens at 5/1 and posts our second-highest rating in this race at 76.93 alongside a 30% career win rate — matching Thelastsay's win percentage, which tells you this is a legitimate runner. Trainer M. Joanna Boggs and jockey Christian Hiraldo are a local pairing, and at 5/1 on the morning line, the place slot is where the real value lives in this race. Golden Circles is a prime exacta partner.

show3Coal CountryML 6/1

Coal Country opens at 6/1 with a rating of 64.23 and an impressive 32% career win rate — the second-best win percentage in the field. Trainer Tyler S. Shanley has been active at Charles Town and Denis Vicente Araujo takes the call. If either of the top two encounter trouble in a short 4 1/2-furlong dash where everything happens fast, Coal Country's high career win rate suggests she knows how to find the winner's circle, making her a worthy show inclusion in the trifecta.

Race 7

2:02 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open Allowance field at 6 1/2 furlongs where nine horses line up with no clear morning-line standout, and our top-rated horse opens at 6/1 — creating legitimate overlay potential across multiple spots.

win1Candy TricksML 6/1

Candy Tricks leads all horses in this nine-horse field with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — a meaningful gap over the second-ranked horse — yet the morning line has her at a generous 6/1. Trainer Ronald G. Sigler and jockey Denis Vicente Araujo combine on what our model sees as the class of the field. When a horse rates this far above the competition but still opens at a double-digit-adjacent price, that's a prime overlay situation. In a field this wide, the horse with the rating edge is often the right play.

place6Last GiftML 5/1

Last Gift is one of the most interesting horses on the card — a 42% career win rate is elite for this level, and trainer Anthony Farrior also runs Maidstone in this race, meaning he's clearly got a strong opinion about the field. Jeiron Barbosa takes the mount with an average speed of 54 and a TrackWiz rating of 73.67 at 5/1 on the morning line. That win percentage alone demands respect, and the place spot at 5/1 is where Last Gift delivers tremendous value.

show9Game EnergyML 3/1

Game Energy opens at 3/1 — making her the closest thing to a public choice in this scrambled field — and carries a 54 average speed figure matching Last Gift's top number in the race. Trainer Joan A. Reynolds gets Christian Hiraldo in the irons, and an 18% career win rate is workmanlike at the allowance level. At 3/1, there's not much overlay here, but the documented speed and a reliable jockey make Game Energy a legitimate show anchor for trifecta tickets.

Race 8

2:32 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A Maiden Claiming sprint at 4 1/2 furlongs where our top-rated horse is also the morning-line second choice — but a couple of longer shots post surprisingly strong ratings and could make the exotics very interesting.

win9Unusual BayML 2/1

Unusual Bay is the standout in this nine-horse maiden field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — a huge margin above every other horse in the race — and opens at 2/1 on the morning line. Trainer Ronney W. Brown has been one of the sharpest trainers on this card all night, and Nomar Arroyo Bueno is a quality rider in these short sprints. At 2/1, the price is modest, but when a horse rates 24 points above the field in a maiden claiming race, you don't overthink it.

place4Bab's EstateML 6/1

Bab's Estate checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 64.75 — comfortably second in the field — and opens at a very attractive 6/1 morning line for trainer Anthony Lucas and jockey Jacqueline A. Davis. No average speed figure is available to benchmark, which creates some uncertainty, but in a field where most horses are rated in the 18-48 range, Bab's Estate stands out significantly. That 6/1 price makes her the best value play in the race and a prime exacta partner with Unusual Bay.

show2Pawleys IslandML 8/1

Pawleys Island opens at 8/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 48.33 — third in the field — for trainer Javier Contreras and jockey Julio Jorge. No speed figure is on record, which introduces some unknowns, but the rating places her clearly above mid-pack in what is otherwise a thin field. The 8/1 morning line is enough of a price that including her in the show spot of a trifecta adds real ticket value without breaking the bank.

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Eight races, a fast Charles Town strip, and a handful of spots where the numbers line up — tonight's card has real potential for both win bettors and multi-race players. Chelsea's Dream, Lolita, and Preshow Hype headline our free plays, and the premium half of the card holds some of the most interesting decisions of the night. Subscribers get the complete picture — grab a TrackWiz plan and don't leave money on the table.

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