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Charles Town Picks & Predictions — July 25, 2026

July 25, 20269 racesAll Charles Town picks

It's a beautiful Saturday at Charles Town Races — clear skies, 79°F, and a fast dirt track that should reward speed and set up some sharp pace scenarios all afternoon. Nine races are on the board, spanning maiden claimers, a starter optional claiming, a stakes event, allowance company, and everything in between. Plenty of angles to attack on every level.

The headline event is Race 3, a Stakes contest at 7 furlongs where At a Premium hits the board as a heavy 1/5 morning-line favorite. That kind of price compresses the win pool fast, so the real money conversation is whether you're structuring exotics around the chalk or finding somewhere to beat it. We'll get into that. The rest of the card offers some genuinely intriguing spots — including a pair of 7-furlong claiming races and a short 4½-furlong sprint in Race 6 that could shake loose a longshot price worth playing.

TrackWiz analysis covers all 9 races today. The first three are free for every reader — after that, the full card is reserved for subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming opener where the morning line favorite carries a massive TrackWiz rating edge — but two closers loom as prices worth watching in the exotics.

win6Whinny Miss LynnyML 6/5

Whinny Miss Lynny is the class of this field by a wide margin, sporting a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 in a race where nothing else cracks 64. At 6/5 on the morning line, the market agrees, and Nomar Arroyo Bueno gets the call. In maiden claiming company going 7 furlongs on the Charles Town dirt, this looks like a wire-to-wire or stalking trip that ends in a clear winner.

place7Kelsey Hill GirlML 7/2

Kelsey Hill Girl (7) checks in at 63.11 on our ratings and posts an average speed figure of 53, matching the top performers in the field on raw pace. Arnaldo Bocachica picks up the mount, and at 7/2 on the morning line, she's a legitimate place play if the favorite handles her business up front.

show2Beverly CrusherML 4/1

Beverly Crusher (2) rates second in the field at 54.93 and also carries an avgSpeed of 52, giving her some pace credentials in a race where upside is thin behind the top two. Trainer Scott J. Lane puts Agustin Martinez aboard, and at 4/1, she's a reasonable show-ticket inclusion in the exotic pool.

Race 2

11:32 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A tight three-way battle at the top of the ratings sets up a competitive Starter Optional Claiming tilt, with the morning-line favorite actually trailing our top-rated horse by a whisker.

win2Rocket AppealML 7/2

Rocket Appeal (2) edges out the field with a TrackWiz rating of 82.03 and an average speed figure of 54 — the best in the race. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's genuine value here relative to his talent level. Trainer Adam King sends Denis Vicente Araujo to the saddle, and with a 17% career win rate, this horse knows how to compete. The pace scenario in a 7-furlong dirt sprint should set up nicely for a horse with his foot speed.

place1Juba's NotionML 8/5

Juba's Notion (1) is the betting favorite at 8/5 and carries a 23% career win rate — the kind of consistent performer who finds the board regularly. The Peltroche family connection is strong here, with Fredy Peltroche riding for trainer Vanessa Peltroche, and that barn knows Charles Town well. A rating of 81.92 is just a hair off our top pick, making him the logical place horse.

show3Yankee Doodle KidML 5/1

Yankee Doodle Kid (3) is the sleeper in this group, boasting an eye-catching 38% career win rate — easily the highest in the field. His TrackWiz rating of 79.49 keeps him in the mix, and Ronney W. Brown is a trainer who can place a horse for a spot. At 5/1, he brings legitimate value in the exotics.

Race 3

12:02 AM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

A short but deep stakes field with a 1/5 morning-line steamroller who figures to be uncatchable — the real play here is sorting out the place and show behind a dominant favorite.

win2At a PremiumML 1/5

At a Premium (2) enters with a perfect 100% career win rate and a maxed-out TrackWiz rating of 90.00 — the highest mark we've posted in tonight's entire card. Listed at 1/5 on the morning line, trainer David Walters and jockey Jeiron Barbosa are pointing an elite performer at a spot where the competition doesn't match up. An avgSpeed of 54 further cements the case. Bet to show only if you're looking for a jackpot return.

place3JohannaML 4/1

Johanna (3) is the clear second choice in our ratings at 75.62, and her 66% career win rate is genuinely impressive — she wins most of the time she runs. Denis Vicente Araujo is a solid booking, and trainer Jeff C. Runco has options in this race with both the 1 and 3 horses. She's your logical place play behind the steamroller.

show1Orange CanyonML 9/2

Orange Canyon (1) carries a 42% career win rate and rates out at 59.90, giving Arnaldo Bocachica a horse with proven grit in stakes company. Also trained by Jeff C. Runco, she benefits from a deep barn that understands this class level. At 9/2, she's the natural show play to round out the exotics.

The free portion of today's card covers Races 1 through 3, and there's genuine variety across all three. Whinny Miss Lynny opens the day in a maiden claimer at 7 furlongs with a strong TrackWiz rating of 89.71 — the kind of number that doesn't often show up in bottom-level maiden company, and at 6/5 on the morning line, the public is already on board. In Race 2, the Starter Optional Claiming gives us Rocket Appeal at 7/2, a more appealing number if our analysis plays out — SOC races can be tricky to read, but pace setup at this distance tends to favor front-runners on Charles Town's compact oval.

The stakes race in Race 3 is the centerpiece of the free card. At a Premium's 90.0 TrackWiz rating is the top mark on the entire card today, and the 1/5 morning line reflects that dominance — but heavy chalk in a stakes spot always raises the question of where the value hides underneath. Our free analysis digs into that exact question.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:32 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An interesting Maiden Special Weight where our top-rated horse beats the morning-line favorite on the TrackWiz numbers — the 3/5 chalk may be vulnerable at a short price.

win4Time to Get ItML 9/2

Time to Get It (4) tops our ratings at 64.32 — ahead of the 3/5 morning-line favorite — and posts an average speed figure of 52 with some actual race experience behind him. Antonio Lopez is a capable rider who can put a horse in a good spot from post four in a 6.5-furlong sprint. Trainer Kristy Petty has this one ready to take a step forward, and at 9/2, the value is very much alive.

place2Tornado WarningML 3/5

Tornado Warning (2) is the public's choice at 3/5 and brings a TrackWiz rating of 60 with an avgSpeed of 52. Trainer Jeff C. Runco is one of the sharper conditioners at Charles Town, and Jahnxander Raspaldo is a live rider. Even if the chalk gets beat, he hits the board more often than not — include him underneath in your tickets.

show7Golden Boss ManML 5/1

Golden Boss Man (7) doesn't have a recorded average speed figure yet, but his TrackWiz rating of 53.33 is strong enough to contend in this maiden field. Ronney W. Brown and Moises Santaella are a reliable combo at this track, and at 5/1, he's worth including as the show leg in a trifecta that keys up on our top two.

Race 5

1:02 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 10-horse claiming sprint where the race shape could favor a closer, and our top pick stands out with a career win rate that dwarfs the rest of the field.

win9Authentic AppealML 3/1

Authentic Appeal (9) is the standout here with a staggering 75% career win rate — by far the best in the field — paired with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08. Nomar Arroyo Bueno is one of the more reliable riders on the Charles Town circuit, and trainer Edward T. Schottroffe has this horse pointed at a winnable spot. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate win bet with some price attached.

place8Close UpML 4/1

Close Up (8) rates out at 76.70 with a career win rate of 13% and an avgSpeed of 52. Fredy Peltroche rides for trainer Vanessa Peltroche — the in-barn jock-trainer combo that's already live in Race 2 tonight. At 4/1, this horse offers real place value and is the type who can grind out a board finish in a sprawling field.

show1Ready to RocknrollML 12/1

Ready to Rocknroll (1) is our longshot value play for the show position, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 65.04 — good enough to sneak a check at 12/1. Trainer Jacob G. Hess sends Moises Santaella up, and the inside post gives this horse a clean trip option early in the 7-furlong sprint. At that price, he's worth throwing in as the third leg of a trifecta.

Race 6

1:32 AM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Don't sleep on the morning-line underlier in this short 4.5-furlong dash — our ratings flip the script on the public, pointing to a potential overlay that the crowd is undervaluing.

win7Martin's Mo TomML 5/1

Martin's Mo Tom (7) tops our ratings at 84.17 in a race where the morning line favorite checks in considerably lower on our numbers. Jose Y. Diaz picks up the mount, and trainer Timothy Shanley clearly has this one primed for a big effort. In a 4.5-furlong sprint, speed from the gate is everything — and an avgSpeed of 52 here is enough to be a factor, especially in a field this competitive.

place1Far From a StarML 9/5

Far From a Star (1) is the 9/5 morning-line choice and carries the highest average speed figure in the race at 55, which matters enormously in a race this short. Walter Cullum rides, and a 9% career win rate doesn't tell the full story on a sprinter who flashes consistent foot. She should be right there at the wire.

show2Cedar's EstateML 7/2

Cedar's Estate (2) rates out at 67.22 with an avgSpeed of 54, putting her in the upper tier of pace figures for this sprint. A 5% career win rate is modest, but in a 4.5-furlong race where fractions decide everything, raw speed matters more than win percentage. At 7/2, she's a logical show play and rounds out a solid exacta box with our top two.

Race 7

2:02 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The 9/5 favorite in this 6.5-furlong claimer holds a commanding TrackWiz edge, but a solid stalker at 4/1 looms as the main threat and the most interesting exotic play on the card.

win6Lil Miss HonkytonkML 9/5

Lil Miss Honkytonk (6) leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 — well clear of the competition — and posts an avgSpeed of 53 to match the class horses in the race. Angel Cruz in the irons for trainer Jamie D. Collyer gives her a sharp rider-trainer pairing. At 9/5 on the morning line, she may be short but her numbers justify the price.

place3SymptomaticML 4/1

Symptomatic (3) is our play for the place slot, rating out at 74.93 with an average speed figure of 53 — matching the top horses on raw pace. Walter Cullum rides for trainer Sherry L. Jackson, a combo that's worth watching at Charles Town. At 4/1, this is one of the better value plays on the board tonight if you're building a trifecta.

show1Over the BullML 3/1

Over the Bull (1) holds a 19% career win rate — one of the stronger marks in this field — along with a TrackWiz rating of 63.92. Denis Vicente Araujo picks up the mount for trainer Michael E. Sterling, and the rail post in a 6.5-furlong sprint at Charles Town can be an asset if traffic breaks cleanly. At 3/1, he's a natural show play and a realistic threat for second.

Race 8

2:32 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two co-favorites square off in a quality allowance sprint, with our ratings giving a narrow edge to Ray of Sunshine while Spotafreeone's elite win percentage makes this a genuine toss-up at the top.

win5Ray of SunshineML 8/5

Ray of Sunshine (5) leads our allowance ratings at 89.12 and carries a 41% career win rate — a mark that puts her firmly in the upper class of tonight's card. Reshawn Latchman rides for trainer Stephen Murdock, and an avgSpeed of 54 is strong in this company. At 8/5, the public is close to right, and our numbers back up the trust.

place8SpotafreeoneML 9/5

Spotafreeone (8) is a horse that demands respect with a 60% career win rate — the highest mark on the entire night's card — and a TrackWiz rating of 83.14. Arnaldo Bocachica teams up with Jeff C. Runco, one of the elite trainer-jockey combos at Charles Town. At 9/5 on the morning line, this horse is nearly a co-favorite and will absolutely hit the board.

show2Wall ArtML 12/1

Wall Art (2) is our longshot show play here, rated at 58.96 with a 40% career win rate that suggests he finds the board far more often than a 12/1 morning line would imply. Nomar Arroyo Bueno picks up the mount, and trainer Ronney W. Brown is one of the more active conditioners at this track. If either of the top two gets into trouble, Wall Art is exactly the kind of horse who sneaks into the trifecta.

Race 9

3:02 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming nightcap where our top-rated horse is going off at 4/1 despite holding a commanding edge on the TrackWiz numbers — this field is ripe for an overlay win.

win3Starship PolarisML 4/1

Starship Polaris (3) is the strongest horse in this field by our ratings at 85.62, yet the morning line has her at 4/1 — a significant disconnect that makes her one of tonight's best value plays. Victor Rodriguez in the irons for trainer Kevin J. Joy is a confident booking, and an avgSpeed of 51 in maiden claiming company is competitive enough to control the pace. The price and the numbers line up — this is the play.

place5Rio OsoML 5/1

Rio Oso (5) rates out at 78.50 with an average speed figure of 52 — a solid combination that suggests she'll be running on at the end of 6.5 furlongs. Trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter has Edgar Villasmil up, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate value in the place slot. She's the horse most likely to chase down our top pick if Starship Polaris gets loose on the front end.

show6Jane N MargoML 9/2

Jane N Margo (6) carries a TrackWiz rating of 69.40 and an avgSpeed of 52, putting her squarely in contention in this field. Nomar Arroyo Bueno rides for trainer Kevin J. Joy — the same barn as our win pick, which tells you this trainer is showing up with multiple live horses tonight. At 9/2, she's a natural show play and a solid trifecta anchor.

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Today's best bets start with Whinny Miss Lynny and Rocket Appeal in the opening pair, and At a Premium is the class of the stakes field — though the price will make you think hard about your strategy. Six more races of premium analysis are waiting for subscribers, including pace breakdowns, exotic tickets, and a closer look at potential value plays like Martin's Mo Tom in the sprint. Unlock the full card at TrackWiz — see our plans at /pricing. Good luck today.

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