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Charles Town Picks & Predictions — July 23, 2026

July 23, 20269 racesAll Charles Town picks

This card ran on July 23, 2026.

Best bets at Charles Town, July 23, 2026

Race 13Hurricane AlertML 8/57:00 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 7 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Charles Town: our top pick won 22 of 64 races (34%) and finished in the money in 47.

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Charles Town is open for business on a beautiful Thursday evening — clear skies, 77°F, and nine races on dirt to work through. Conditions look ideal for fast times, so keep an eye on speed figures tonight. A firm, dry track at CTW tends to reward horses who can get out cleanly and control their own pace.

The card is a nice mix of claiming races, maiden special weights, and a pair of allowance bouts that should produce some genuinely competitive finishes. We've got strong ratings across the board — six of our nine top picks carry TrackWiz ratings of 88 or higher — so the data is pointing us toward some confident plays.

Three races are unlocked and free for every reader. The remaining six are part of our premium full-card breakdown. Let's set the table.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Hurricane Alert towers over this claiming sprint on paper, but the morning line suggests the market agrees — expect him to go off short and leave little value at the windows beyond the exotics.

win3Hurricane AlertML 8/5

Hurricane Alert is the class of this field and it isn't particularly close — a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 separates him from the next-best runner by nearly 30 points. Trainer Ronney W. Brown sends him out with jockey Nomar Arroyo Bueno, a pairing worth noting at this level. A 24% career win rate backs up the profile of a horse who knows how to get the job done, and at 6½ furlongs on the dirt he should find this distance right in his wheelhouse.

place1Valhalla's PalaceML 5/2

Valhalla's Palace opens at 5/2 on the morning line and carries a TrackWiz rating of 59.33 — second-best in the field by a comfortable margin. His 19% career win rate isn't flashy, but it suggests enough consistency to hold a board spot in a race where pace pressure could shuffle the order slightly. Jockey Jahnxander Raspaldo gets the call and should keep him competitive through the far turn.

show7Estrella FugazML 10/1

Estrella Fugaz is a sneaky show play at 10/1 on the morning line, sporting the field's top average speed figure at 53 despite a modest overall rating of 44.98. The trainer-jockey combination of Vanessa and Fredy Peltroche is a family operation that tends to have horses ready to run, and a 14% career win rate gives her a fighting chance to hit the board in a pace-dependent scenario.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:32 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight sprint that splits into two tiers — Saichi's Girl and Lookingforahandout stand well above the rest, while the bottom half of the field is largely still searching for its first form line.

win2Saichi's GirlML EVN

Saichi's Girl draws the morning-line favoritism at even money and backs it up with a TrackWiz rating of 90 — the highest mark in the field. Trainer M. Joanna Boggs puts Christian Hiraldo in the irons, a confident move with the top horse. She carries an average speed figure of 52 for a maiden, which compares favorably in this group, and the TrackWiz model makes her a clear top selection in what shapes up as a two-horse race at the top.

place6LookingforahandoutML 6/1

Lookingforahandout is the most interesting piece of the ticket at 6/1 on the morning line — a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 makes her the second-best horse in the field despite being dismissed at that price. Trainer Michael E. Jones, Jr. and jockey Jeiron Barbosa team up here, and with an average speed figure of 51, she's shown enough in the mornings to deserve respect. If Saichi's Girl faces any pace pressure, Lookingforahandout is the most logical beneficiary.

show4Golden EmpressML 3/1

Golden Empress opens at 3/1 and holds a TrackWiz rating of 56.67, placing her third in the field. She's a first-time starter — no career starts, no average speed figure — but trainer Stacey R. Viands sends her out with J.D. Acosta aboard, and the 3/1 price suggests someone at the barn likes what they've seen in the mornings. In a maiden race where unknown quantities can spring surprises, she's a reasonable show anchor in the exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Our three free races tonight give you a solid sampler of the card. In Race 1, Hurricane Alert (8/5 ML, TrackWiz rating 89.12) opens the evening in a 6½-furlong claimer — the kind of sprint distance where class and early foot matter most on this oval. Race 2 flips to maiden special weight company, where Saichi's Girl goes off at even money with a 90 rating, the highest of our free picks and a signal she's in a class of her own in this field. Race 3 stretches out to 1 1/16 miles and features Head Lad at a very short 3/5 morning line — that price tells you something, and our 90 rating backs it up. This trio connects around a common theme: favorites with strong underlying numbers on a track playing fair and fast.

On a clear night at Charles Town, pace scenarios tend to unfold quickly and the advantage often goes to horses with tactical speed — horses who can sit just off a contested early pace and pounce in the stretch. That's the lens to use when evaluating all three free plays tonight.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

8:02 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Head Lad is the kind of odds-on favorite that makes you check your math twice — his rating dwarfs the field, and the real handicapping question is who runs second.

win4Head LadML 3/5

Head Lad goes to the gate at 3/5 and is fully deserving of that price — his TrackWiz rating of 90 is tops in the field, and trainer Ronney W. Brown has him in sharp form. A 23% career win rate is among the best in the field, and jockey Moises Santaella is a reliable handler for a horse that should control or press the pace going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Fade him at your own risk.

place7Irish WarlockML 4/1

Irish Warlock at 4/1 is the most logical challenger — a TrackWiz rating of 70.36 puts him clearly second in this field, and an 11% career win rate at this level isn't embarrassing for a claimer who's built for the route. Trainer Anthony Farrior sends him out with Jeiron Barbosa up, and the 52 average speed figure matches the field's mid-tier speed profile. He's the horse most likely to be sitting second at the top of the stretch if the favorite tires.

show3RidiculousML 10/1

Ridiculous is a subtle show play at 10/1 on the morning line — a TrackWiz rating of 59.2 makes him the third-ranked horse in the field, and the Peltroche barn (trainer Vanessa, jockey Fredy) has a knack for landing their horses in the money. A 16% career win rate over routes suggests he can handle the 1 1/16-mile trip, and if the pace gets honest up front, he's the type to close into a third-place check.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

8:32 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses — Vida and Hard Stance — split the morning-line favoritism in what figures to be a match race among maidens, with the rest of the field battling for minor awards.

win2VidaML 5/2

Vida opens at 5/2 and earns her status as the TrackWiz top pick with an 87.81 rating — the highest in the field among horses with a recorded speed figure. Trainer Somraj Singh sends her out with Tais Lyapustina aboard, and an average speed figure of 52 gives her a measurable baseline in a field full of unknown quantities. In a wide-open maiden sprint, a horse that has shown her hand in previous starts carries a meaningful edge.

place6Hard StanceML 6/5

Hard Stance is the morning-line favorite at 6/5 with a TrackWiz rating of 82.82, and the 55 average speed figure is the highest in the entire field — that's not a number to dismiss. Trainer Anthony Farrior deploys Jeiron Barbosa for the assignment, the same barn-jockey combo that shows up repeatedly with live horses on this card. The 6/5 morning line may not offer traditional place-ticket value, but in a match race scenario, Hard Stance absolutely has the talent to hit the board.

show3Hobson's ChoiceML 8/1

Hobson's Choice is a first-time starter from trainer Jeff C. Runco priced at 8/1, and Runco is a Charles Town staple who knows how to have a debut runner ready. A TrackWiz rating of 48.33 puts her in the middle of the pack, and while there's no speed figure to evaluate, the 8/1 price represents enough of a margin to consider her as a show option in maiden exotics. Arnaldo Bocachica gets the mount.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

9:02 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Wiley Willard looms as a dominant force in this 1 1/16-mile claiming route, and the pace scenario should set up perfectly for a horse with his profile — the real angle is finding secondary value underneath him.

win5Wiley WillardML 8/5

Wiley Willard posts the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.12 and opens at 8/5 — a fair price for the best horse in the race. His 28% career win rate leads all starters by a significant margin, and an average speed figure of 53 gives him an edge in raw speed. Trainer Ronney W. Brown keeps the powerful Nomar Arroyo Bueno connection going, and at 1 1/16 miles, this horse should have enough gas to run his rivals off their feet.

place4Bless AmericaML 4/1

Bless America is our top place option at 4/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 68.93 places her second in the field, and the 53 average speed figure matches Wiley Willard's raw pace numbers. Trainer Anthony Farrior plugs in J.D. Acosta, and a 16% career win rate over routes speaks to some baseline consistency. If Wiley Willard gets challenged early and flattens, Bless America is well-positioned to inherit the board.

show2Gran AndrewsML 5/1

Gran Andrews brings an eye-catching 36% career win rate to the table — easily the second-best mark in the field — and his 5/1 morning line offers genuine value for show-ticket and exacta purposes. Trainer Tyler S. Shanley pairs him with Denis Vicente Araujo for this route assignment, and an average speed figure of 51 is workable at this class. A horse that wins 36% of the time has the profiles of a board-hitter even when facing tougher company.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

9:32 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Our Memories draws heavy 6/5 morning-line favoritism in this allowance sprint, but Creative Catch lurks at 10/1 with the second-best rating in the field — this race has sneaky exacta value written all over it.

win4Our MemoriesML 6/5

Our Memories posts an 88.14 TrackWiz rating and is the clear class standout in this allowance field. A 12% career win rate may look modest on the surface, but at the allowance level that number carries more context, and trainer Timothy C. Grams sends her out with Alexis Rios-Conde, Jr. who gets a live mount. An average speed figure of 53 gives her a measurable edge in raw pace, and at 6½ furlongs she should have every opportunity to set or press the tempo on her own terms.

place8Creative CatchML 10/1

Creative Catch at 10/1 is the standout value play on this card — a TrackWiz rating of 76.88 makes her the second-best horse in the field by a meaningful gap, yet the morning line has her buried at double digits. Trainer Jeff C. Runco, who saddles multiple runners tonight, puts Nomar Arroyo Bueno on her back — the top jockey connection on the card. A 16% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure suggest she can compete at this level, and 10/1 is simply too generous a price.

show2Sweet N TrickyML 4/1

Sweet N Tricky opens at 4/1 and holds a TrackWiz rating of 73.1, placing her third in the field. A 23% career win rate is the second-best mark among all starters in this race, suggesting she's the type who knows how to find the winner's circle when the pieces fall into place. Trainer Elizabeth E. Meehan and jockey Juan Mauricio Nunez team up here, and at 4/1 she's a comfortable show-ticket inclusion with legitimate upside.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

10:02 PM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short 4½-furlong claiming dash that comes down to Punxadonny's dominant win percentage against a field of single-digit win-rate horses — the pace will be hot and early, with little margin for error.

win3PunxadonnyML 3/1

Punxadonny stands out immediately with a jaw-dropping 50% career win rate — half of all career starts have resulted in victories, a figure that's practically unheard of in claiming company. His TrackWiz rating of 87.08 confirms what the raw stats suggest: this is the best horse in the race. Trainer Bobby L. Barber sends him out with Maximo Chilo in the irons for this short sprint, and at 3/1 on the morning line, he's priced fairly but still offers enough to justify a win bet.

place6Mikes GoneML 6/1

Mikes Gone carries an 18% career win rate — second-best in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 63.57 that puts him well ahead of the mid-pack horses. Trainer Javier Contreras uses Sunday Diaz, Jr. here, and in a short sprint where early position is everything, a horse with his consistency deserves a spot on your place ticket. If Punxadonny gets shuffled at the break or faces early pressure, Mikes Gone is the most likely candidate to swoop in for a piece.

show1El PachoML 9/2

El Pacho opens at 9/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 50.76, giving him the third-best score in the field. Trainer Ruben D. Reyes has him in the hands of Nomar Arroyo Bueno, which is a notable jockey upgrade for a horse at this price. His 9% career win rate keeps expectations in check, but in a field where most runners are in the single digits, El Pacho has enough profile to grab a piece of the purse in a short, chaotic dash.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

10:32 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Mayorofgreencounty headlines a high-class allowance sprint with eye-catching career numbers, but Malibu Son lurks at 5/1 with a big rating of his own — this is a three-horse race at the top with legitimate exacta possibilities.

win1MayorofgreencountyML 2/1

Mayorofgreencounty opens at 2/1 and backs that up with a 50% career win rate — tied for the highest mark on tonight's card — alongside a TrackWiz rating of 88.54. Trainer Anthony Farrior, who has been ultra-active all night, gives the mount to Jeiron Barbosa, one of the busiest and most reliable riders in this circuit. An average speed figure of 52 in an allowance field is perfectly serviceable, and a horse that wins half the time deserves respect at any level.

place3Malibu SonML 5/1

Malibu Son is the forgotten horse in this field at 5/1, yet his TrackWiz rating of 82.79 is firmly second-best in the race. A 33% career win rate is elite by any measure at this level, and trainer Timothy C. Grams keeps Larry C. Reynolds aboard for the assignment. His average speed figure of 52 is consistent with the top two, and in a competitive allowance sprint, Malibu Son is a strong play to fill out exacta and place tickets at a price that offers real value.

show2MitoteML 5/2

Mitote at 5/2 might look like a chalk show play, but a 40% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 68.92 tell a genuine story — this horse can compete. Trainer Jeff C. Runco sends him out with Jahnxander Raspaldo, and the 52 average speed figure keeps him in the pace picture throughout 6½ furlongs. For exotic bettors constructing trifectas, Mitote is a reliable underneath piece who won't embarrass you at the finish line.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 9

11:02 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a heated claiming sprint with two 8/5-or-better favorites — Hamdoun and Johnny Lies — nearly splitting the morning-line favoritism, setting up a potential pace duel that could benefit the stalker types lurking behind.

win4HamdounML 9/5

Hamdoun draws the TrackWiz top spot with an 88.83 rating and opens at 9/5 on the morning line. Trainer Adam King sends him out with Denis Vicente Araujo, and while a 9% career win rate looks low at first glance, what matters here is the model's confidence in his current form relative to this field. An average speed figure of 52 is competitive in this spot, and if he can navigate a potentially hot early pace, he has the class to close it out in the lane.

place6Johnny LiesML 7/5

Johnny Lies is practically a co-favorite at 7/5 and earns it with an 84.69 TrackWiz rating — just a hair behind Hamdoun. Trainer Anthony Farrior deploys Jeiron Barbosa once again, the same winning combo that appears throughout tonight's card, and a 14% career win rate in claiming company gives him a realistic shot at the win let alone the place. The interesting scenario: if these two press each other early, one of them will come back to the field, but the other should hold — Johnny Lies has the tactical versatility to either make the pace or stalk.

show8Speedy SammyML 4/1

Speedy Sammy rounds out the top three at 4/1, and a TrackWiz rating of 78.93 confirms he belongs in the money conversation. Trainer Kevin J. Joy puts Nomar Arroyo Bueno on board — a jockey who's been all over the card tonight with live horses — and a 12% career win rate in a sprint context is workable. If the two favorites get into a pace war and flatten out in the lane, Speedy Sammy could be the one charging past both of them for a big show score.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Tonight's Charles Town card checks a lot of boxes — solid favorite angles in the free races, a couple of intriguing live longshots in the premium spots, and fast, consistent conditions that should keep the racing honest. Hurricane Alert, Saichi's Girl, and Head Lad are our headlined free best bets. For the full nine-race breakdown, pace analysis, and exotic ticket construction, subscribers have everything waiting for them in the premium section. Good luck at the windows tonight.

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