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Charles Town Picks & Predictions — July 11, 2026

July 11, 20268 racesAll Charles Town picks

This card ran on July 11, 2026.

Best bets at Charles Town, July 11, 2026

Race 12Trouble and StrifeML 5/17:00 PM EDT

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Last 30 days at Charles Town: our top pick won 22 of 64 races (34%) and finished in the money in 47.

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Charles Town is running through the rain tonight, with 79°F temps and a wet dirt surface setting the stage for an 8-race card on July 11th. Wet going at CTW can be a real equalizer — horses that handle a sealed or muddy strip rise up the order, and favorites who hate slop can get buried. Keep that in mind all evening.

Tonight's card spans a mix of claiming races, maiden special weights, and a Starter Optional Claiming feature that gives the night its best puzzle to solve. There's action at 4½ furlongs, 6½ furlongs, and a route-ish 7-furlong test in Race 7. Good variety, and the wet conditions add a layer to every single race.

TrackWiz has dug through the full eight-race card. Three previews are available free for all readers — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and the remaining five are part of the premium breakdown. Here's how the night shapes up.

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Race 1

7:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 6½-furlong dirt claimer where the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top three but the morning line underestimates the leader — expect a contentious pace with multiple speed horses looking to set the table early.

win2Trouble and StrifeML 5/1

Trouble and Strife is the standout on our ratings at 84.17 — a full ten points clear of the next-best contender — and backs it up with a 22% career win rate that leads this field. Jockey Maximo Chilo picks up a live mount at 5/1 on the morning line, which looks like a gift if the ratings hold. At 6½ furlongs there's room for a horse with real ability to stalk the pace and pounce, and this one profiles as exactly that type.

place7Close UpML 5/2

Close Up draws the morning-line favoritism at 5/2 for a reason — a TrackWiz rating of 74.71 makes this one of the stronger horses in the field. The knock is a career win rate of just 9%, which suggests a horse that runs big but doesn't always close the deal, making a place ticket the sensible play here. Fredy Peltroche in the irons for trainer Vanessa Peltroche keeps this a family operation and tight connections can be a positive angle.

show6CicatrizML 6/1

Cicatriz is interesting as a show play at 6/1 morning line with a rating of 67.33 — third-best in the field. The 8% career win rate is modest, but Joe Stokes is a reliable pilot at Charles Town, and a horse rated this highly at this price deserves at least show consideration in your exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Short 4½-furlong sprint where pace will be everything — the favorite carries real credentials but a pair of price horses with solid TrackWiz ratings could make the exotics very interesting.

win6MitoleisdynamiteML 8/5

Mitoleisdynamite checks in as the 8/5 morning-line favorite and earns it with an 82.92 TrackWiz rating — tops in the field — and the highest average speed figure of the contenders at 53. Jeiron Barbosa is a capable rider at this oval, and trainer Anthony Farrior saddles multiple entrants today which signals a barn in confident form. In a short sprint, a horse with this kind of speed profile can be on the lead before rivals sort out, making this a deserving chalk.

place4ShessweetlikecandyML 5/1

Shessweetlikecandy sits at 5/1 on the morning line despite a 76.93 rating that makes her the second-ranked horse in our model. Christian Maldonado rides for trainer Jacob G. Hess, and an average speed figure of 51 is competitive in this spot. The value angle here is real — if the favorite gets into a speed duel early, this one could be sitting in perfect position to collect a place check.

show2ChangesML 12/1

Changes is your longshot show play at 12/1, but don't overlook a TrackWiz rating of 73.96 that actually ranks third in this field. The connection of Fredy Peltroche and trainer Vanessa Peltroche — the same team we like in Race 1 — keeps showing up with horses in competitive positions. No average speed figure on file makes this more speculative, but the rating alone justifies a spot in the exotics at this price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Our free previews tonight cover the first three races on the card, and there's already plenty to get excited about. Trouble and Strife opens the night in a 6½-furlong claimer going postward at 5/1 on the morning line — a juicy price for a horse our model rates at 84 points. In Race 2, Mitoleisdynamite comes in as a short-priced favorite at 8/5 in a 4½-furlong sprint, and that favoritism looks deserved. Then Race 3 flips the script with a Maiden Special Weight and our top pick, Candygram Cat, sitting at a wide-open 10/1 — a legitimate longshot angle in a wide-open field.

The common thread through these early races is pace. The wet dirt at Charles Town can compress early fractions and reward closers — or it can seal up and favor horses with early foot who can get clean trips in the slop. Watch how the first couple of races play out to calibrate your pace reads for the rest of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

8:02 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight chaos over 4½ furlongs — a field of horses with no career wins and limited speed data, which makes our ratings the best available separator in what amounts to a guessing game.

win4Candygram CatML 10/1

Candygram Cat jumps out with the highest TrackWiz rating in this maiden field at 76.88, and backs it with an average speed figure of 53 — the best among horses with recorded workouts in this race. Christian Hiraldo rides for trainer Curtis W. Bass, and at 10/1 on the morning line this is a genuine overlay if the model is right. In a short sprint with inexperienced runners, a horse that has already shown some speed in training is a massive edge.

place3LookingforahandoutML 15/1

Lookingforahandout rates second in the field at 62.37 and has shown an average speed figure of 52, which puts this one in a small group of horses with meaningful data points. J.D. Acosta is one of the sharper pilots on this circuit and keeps even uncertain maiden types honest. At 15/1 morning line, a place ticket here is an excellent value play — the rating far outpaces the odds.

show9Contra CostaML 2/1

Contra Costa opens as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for Jeff C. Runco, one of the more respected trainers at Charles Town, and Arnaldo Bocachica is a reliable hand in the irons. The TrackWiz rating of 58.33 ranks fourth in the field — a bit low for a public choice — but trainer quality and jockey trust explain the market position. Worth including in show parlays even though our model prefers horses above it.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

8:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Classy Bay is a horse that towers over this 4½-furlong claimer on paper, but a field featuring multiple horses with solid win rates means the 7/5 favorite needs to be on their game to hold off motivated rivals.

win8Classy BayML 7/5

Classy Bay is the class of this field — a TrackWiz rating of 87.59 leads the race by more than eight points, a 31% career win rate is exceptional at this level, and the average speed figure of 52 is consistent with what's needed here. Trainer Ronney W. Brown saddles the horse for Moises Santaella, a sharp booking, and at 7/5 you're essentially paying fair market value for a horse that our model calls a standout. This is a 'bet to win' situation — chalk that earns it.

place6GenechoML 8/1

Genecho is a big-value angle at 8/1 morning line — a 79.79 rating is second in the field and a 20% career win rate says this horse has figured out how to get to the winner's circle before. Jacqueline A. Davis pilots for Osborne Smith, and if Classy Bay encounters any trouble or gets taken back, Genecho is the most likely beneficiary at a very attractive price.

show7Remy's HotshotML 6/1

Remy's Hotshot sits at 6/1 with a 77.95 rating — third in this field — and trainer Timothy C. Grams has a capable runner on his hands. A 21% career win rate suggests this one competes consistently, and Maximo Chilo in the saddle adds tactical awareness. As a show horse in exotics, the price and the rating make Remy's Hotshot a logical inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

9:02 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A fascinating maiden sprint where the two highest-rated horses flip the morning-line script — the public leans on the 9/5 shot but our model says the 7/2 horse is actually the stronger play.

win6Captured in TimeML 7/2

Captured in Time is our top-rated horse in this maiden field at 86.35, opening at 7/2 — which makes this a genuine overlay relative to the model. Trainer Michelle R. Wilson has this filly showing an average speed figure of 51, and jockey Angel Cruz picks up a live mount at a price the public may be underestimating. In maiden races, the horse with superior ratings and actual speed data is almost always the right play.

place2LolitaML 9/5

Lolita is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with a strong 83.21 rating and an average speed of 51 — so this isn't a case of fading a bad horse, just repositioning relative value. Trainer Javier Contreras puts Juan Mauricio Nunez aboard, a reliable combination, and Lolita will likely press or set the pace in a short sprint. A place ticket here captures the most likely outcome without overpaying to win.

show5Stella's CandyML 8/1

Stella's Candy offers some sneaky value at 8/1 — a 56.82 rating is third-best among horses with speed data, and an average figure of 51 matches the favorites' benchmarks. Victor Rodriguez rides for trainer Tonya M. O'Neill, and if the top two get tangled in a pace duel, Stella's Candy could be sitting third and picking up the show dough. Worth a spot in the exacta/trifecta at that price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

9:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Doc Dallas and Sokota look like the class of this 6½-furlong claimer — but the morning-line gap between them creates an interesting pace scenario where neither horse can afford to let the other get loose.

win8Doc DallasML 4/1

Doc Dallas heads our rankings at 85.62 with a commanding 28% career win rate — among the highest in this field — opening at 4/1 on the morning line. Trainer Kevin J. Joy has this horse showing a 51 average speed figure, respectable at this distance, and Jacqueline A. Davis is a savvy pilot who can manage pace situations effectively. The rating gap over the field is significant enough to make this one a strong win play at what figures to be a fair price.

place2SokotaML 7/2

Sokota is a serious horse with a 81.94 rating and a 25% career win rate, posting an average speed of 53 — the second-highest in the field. Trainer Ronney W. Brown teams with Nomar Arroyo Bueno, and at 7/2 this one could easily turn the tables if Doc Dallas meets trouble or gets into a speed battle early. Don't sleep on a place ticket for Sokota — this horse has the numbers to win outright.

show7Ragtime ScribbleML 5/2

Ragtime Scribble offers solid show value at 5/2 — a 62.67 rating is third in the field, and trainer Jeff C. Runco is a consistent presence in the winner's circle at Charles Town. Arnaldo Bocachica takes the mount, and a 20% career win rate backs up the idea that this horse competes at a professional level. In a race where the top two could hook each other, a third-place finish for Ragtime Scribble is absolutely in play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

10:02 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The 7-furlong Starter Optional Claimer sets up as a clash between a morning-line underdog our model loves and a public favorite — both deserve respect, but the price spread creates real value opportunities in the exotics.

win4MasterworkML 5/2

Masterwork leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — the highest-rated horse on the entire card so far today — and backs it up with an average speed figure of 53, second-best in this race. Trainer Ronney W. Brown saddles another live runner and puts Moises Santaella on top, which is a meaningful confidence signal. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is a case where the model and the public are close to aligned, and the rating edge over the field suggests Masterwork is being priced about right as a win play.

place5Heaven StreetML 6/5

Heaven Street is the 6/5 morning-line favorite with a 79.12 rating and the highest average speed figure in the field at 55 — that raw speed number is legitimate. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser puts Arnaldo Bocachica on board, and a 28% career win rate says this horse knows how to finish. The model prefers Masterwork, but Heaven Street's speed figure makes a place ticket very comfortable — this one will be in the hunt at the wire.

show7Coronation TimeML 10/1

Coronation Time is a value play at 10/1 morning line with a 62.76 rating — third-best in the field — and a 21% career win rate that suggests consistent competitiveness. Trainer Ronney W. Brown fields two horses in this race (both Masterwork and Coronation Time), so connections clearly feel good about both runners. Nomar Arroyo Bueno takes the call, and at double-digit odds in exotics, Coronation Time is exactly the type of show inclusion that makes trifectas worth pursuing.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 8

10:32 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Ten runners in this maiden claimer sprint and the field separates cleanly into a small group of genuine contenders and a long list of price horses — Weather Beater and S S Island Fun look like the class of the bunch, with one intriguing value play hiding below them.

win6Weather BeaterML 9/5

Weather Beater posts the highest TrackWiz rating on tonight's entire card at 88.83 — a number that simply doesn't belong in a maiden claimer. An average speed figure of 53 is the best among horses with data in this race, and trainer Anthony Farrior puts Jeiron Barbosa on board — the same combination we liked in Race 2. At 9/5 the public has caught on, but even at odds-on you're betting a horse that looks genuinely superior to this field.

place8S S Island FunML 5/2

S S Island Fun opens at 5/2 with a 84.23 rating — second in the field by a wide margin — giving Jacqueline A. Davis a horse with real ability in a race with limited depth. Trainer Anthony Lucas places this runner in the right spot for a maiden claimer, and the 5/2 price makes a place ticket nearly automatic. If Weather Beater is any way compromised at the start, S S Island Fun is the most likely winner in the field.

show3New York LightsML 10/1

New York Lights is a legitimate show inclusion at 10/1 — a 71.25 rating is third-best among all runners and an average speed figure of 51 gives this one real data to back it up. Trainer Marshall T. Campbell saddles multiple runners today, and Jose Y. Diaz picks up the mount in what looks like a live situation at a double-digit price. In a maiden race with several unknowns, a horse rated this clearly above average at 10/1 is exactly the kind of show play that makes trifectas pay.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Bottom line: tonight at Charles Town is a card worth playing carefully. The rain changes the calculus on nearly every race, and there's real value to be found — Trouble and Strife at 5/1 in the opener and Candygram Cat at 10/1 in Race 3 are two prices worth circling before you dismiss them. Masterwork and Weather Beater headline the premium side of the card and both look strong on a wet track. Full pace projections, exotic breakdowns, and all eight race analyses are available for TrackWiz subscribers — check out our plans here and get set before the gates open.

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