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Century Mile Picks & Predictions — July 25, 2026

July 25, 202610 racesAll Century Mile picks

It's a beautiful Saturday at Century Mile — clear skies, 80°F, and a 10-race all-dirt card that gives you plenty of angles to work with from first post to nightcap. Conditions look as close to ideal as you're going to get this summer, so expect fast fractions and sharp speed figures across the board.

The card is a nice mix of maiden action, claiming wars, and allowance tests — plenty of variety whether you're betting individual races or hunting multi-race exotics. TrackWiz analysis has strong opinions on every single race today, and a few of our ratings are flagging some real overlay opportunities that casual bettors are likely to overlook.

Three races are open to everyone today, and if you like what you see, the full 10-race breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint with six first-time starters — no speed figures to lean on, so TrackWiz ratings and morning-line respect are doing the heavy lifting here.

win6Mexican LuckyML 7/5

Mexican Lucky tops our TrackWiz ratings at 59.33 in a field where nobody has ever hit the board, and the morning line of 7/5 tells you the market agrees. Trainer Mel Snow sends this one out as the clear public choice, and jockey Amadeo Perez gives the connections a reliable hand in the irons. In a debut sprint where raw talent and preparation are everything, Mexican Lucky's rating edge of nearly three points over the next rival is meaningful — back this one to fire first.

place3Cowboy NowML 3/1

Cowboy Now (No. 3) posts the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 56.67 and carries morning-line respect at 3/1 under Dane Nelson. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson has a live-looking runner here, and in a wide-open maiden dash, the third choice on the line has solid each-way appeal.

show5Bakk for BriaML 4/1

Bakk for Bria grades out third on our ratings scale at 55.00 and lands at a fair 4/1 on the morning line, making this one a reasonable exotic anchor. Jockey Richard Balgobin pilots for trainer James R. Brown, and if pace heats up between the top two, Bakk for Bria could be sitting pretty late.

Race 2

11:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Gimlet is a runaway class standout in this six-furlong claiming sprint — the real question is whether anything in here can make a race of it behind a heavy favorite.

win5GimletML 3/5

Gimlet's TrackWiz rating of 90.00 towers over this field — the next-best horse, Dare to Compare, checks in at 67.88, a gap you rarely see in a claiming race. The 3/5 morning line reflects a horse that has won 28% of career starts with an average speed figure of 55, and trainer Dino K. Condilenios has this one fit and ready. With Kimal Santo in the irons, there's no obvious reason to look elsewhere for the win.

place2Dare to CompareML 3/1

Dare to Compare rates second in the field at 67.88 and carries a 15% career win rate that's respectable at this level. At 3/1 on the morning line, Dane Nelson gets the call for Joan Petrowski, and if Gimlet puts this away up front, Dare to Compare looks like the logical pick to fill the exacta slot.

show1La PatronaML 6/1

La Patrona (No. 1) is the most intriguing runner in the supporting cast — a 50% career win rate jumps off the page, even if the rating of 61.85 puts her clearly below the top two. At 6/1 on the morning line, Anastasios Chalaris gets the mount for Gonzalo Anderson, and that win percentage suggests this filly knows how to finish. She's your show-position value play in the exotics.

Race 3

11:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Habadabadoo and Redneck Rebel dominate the ratings in this maiden claiming route, but the morning-line odds flip the script — our top-rated horse is the overlay here.

win4HabadabadooML 4/1

Habadabadoo posts the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62, yet the morning line has this runner at 4/1 while Redneck Rebel opens as the 4/5 chalk — that's the kind of ratings-versus-odds divergence that creates real value. Trainer Monica Russell sends Habadabadoo out with Mauricio Malvaez in the irons, and at a mile and a sixteenth, there's enough ground to allow a pace scenario to set up. If the market has underestimated this one, you're getting a top-rated horse at nearly double the fair odds.

place6Redneck RebelML 4/5

Redneck Rebel checks in at a strong 78.04 on our ratings scale and is the public's choice at 4/5 for trainer Joan Petrowski with Dane Nelson aboard. The average speed figure of 51 is the lowest of the three top picks, which is part of why we've slotted this one in the place position rather than on top — solid contender, just potentially overbet.

show1Dri SaddleML 5/2

Dri Saddle opens at 5/2 on the morning line and backs it up with a TrackWiz rating of 60.57 and an average speed figure of 53 — the best of the three picks on that metric. Kimal Santo rides for Gonzalo Anderson, and in a wide field going long, Dri Saddle's early positioning could keep this one in the picture throughout.

Our free selections today span the opening trio, and there's a little something for every type of bettor. Mexican Lucky draws our top pick in Race 1's Maiden Special Weight sprint at 5 furlongs — posted at 7/5 on the morning line, so this isn't a value monster, but the TrackWiz rating of 59.33 still puts some daylight between him and the field. Race 2 is where the most confident number lives: Gimlet sits at 3/5 on the morning line in a 6-furlong claiming affair, and with a rating of 90 — the highest on the free portion of today's card — this is the kind of horse you build your early Pick 3 tickets around. Then in Race 3, stretch out to 1 1/16 miles in the Maiden Claiming and you'll find Habadabadoo at a juicy 4/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 — that combination of price and score is exactly the type of spot we look to attack.

On a clear, fast-track day like this, pace dynamics tend to sharpen early and hold late — keep an eye on early speed horses that can settle and kick in the stretch. That angle threads through all three free plays today.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Bold Arch and Bar Down Express enter as virtually deadlocked at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, setting up a fascinating pace duel in this six-and-a-half-furlong allowance.

win2Bold ArchML 4/5

Bold Arch earns a 84.97 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in the field — and backs it up with a jaw-dropping 47% career win rate that screams class in an allowance spot. The 4/5 morning line is justified by a horse that wins nearly half his starts, and trainer Geovani Olalde hands the reins to Amadeo Perez, one of the more productive jockey-trainer combos on the Century Mile circuit. At 6.5 furlongs on dirt, Bold Arch profiles as a horse that can press the pace and hold on.

place5Bar Down ExpressML 9/2

Bar Down Express sits at 84.90 on our ratings — just a tick below Bold Arch — and offers a compelling each-way profile at 9/2 on the morning line. Trainer Tim Rycroft sends this one out with Jose Mariano Asencio, and with an average speed figure of 55 matching the top two, Bar Down Express has the raw ability to fill the exacta. The lower career win rate of 13% suggests this horse may need things to fall right, making the place slot the smart play.

show3Gotme GoodML 4/1

Gotme Good rates third in the field at 74.93 and gives trainer Tim Rycroft a second strong runner in the same race — stable confidence is always worth noting. The 4/1 morning line and 18% career win rate make this an honest contender, and Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez should keep Gotme Good within striking range if the pace gets honest up front.

Race 5

12:45 AM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Diocles and Lucky Force form a dominant top two in this allowance route, separating themselves from the rest of a six-horse field by a wide margin on the TrackWiz scale.

win5DioclesML 7/5

Diocles posts the top rating in the field at 89.42 and steps in as the 7/5 morning-line choice for trainer Pat Jarvis with Kimal Santo up. A 27% career win rate is solid at the allowance level, and an average speed figure of 54 is right in line with the best horses in this spot. At a mile and a sixteenth, pace setup matters — and Diocles profiles as a horse with enough tactical speed to control the race on its own terms.

place6Lucky ForceML 5/2

Lucky Force is the most dangerous horse in here if Diocles underperforms — a 41% career win rate is remarkable and suggests a horse that shows up ready to run. Trainer Geovani Olalde pairs with Amadeo Perez, a combo that's been productive, and the 5/2 morning line on an 85.94-rated horse with that kind of win percentage is honestly not bad value either.

show4Bobby DazzlerML 5/1

Bobby Dazzler rates fourth in the field at 68.23 but offers real appeal at 5/1 on the morning line — particularly in exotic tickets where you need a horse that can hit the board. A 22% career win rate for trainer Colleen O'Hagan says this one is no stranger to winning, and Keimar Trotman in the irons keeps things professional. If the top two burn each other up, Bobby Dazzler could be the beneficiary.

Race 6

1:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Miss Larue is our top-rated horse at a double-digit morning line in a wide-open six-and-a-half-furlong claiming race — a genuine overlay situation in a field with no clear dominant force.

win6Miss LarueML 8/1

Miss Larue tops the TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 but sits at 8/1 on the morning line — a meaningful disconnect that suggests the public hasn't done the homework here. Trainer Mel Snow puts Amadeo Perez in the irons, one of the more dependable pilot-trainer tandems at this meet. While a 5% career win rate might give some bettors pause, ratings capture recent form cycles and current condition — and right now, Miss Larue looks like the class of this field at a price.

place5Midnite ScoreML 5/1

Midnite Score profiles as a legit pace factor with a 57.44 rating and an average speed figure of 54 — tied for the top mark in this field alongside Brodys Souvenir. Ridge Balgobin picks up the mount for Ashley Gilkyson, and at 5/1 on the morning line with an 11% career win rate, Midnite Score offers a fair-priced each-way option in a race where value abounds.

show1Everything to GainML 15/1

Everything to Gain opens at a massive 15/1 on the morning line, which is why this one is here as a show hedge rather than a serious win contender. The rating of 51.31 is the third-best in the field, and trainer Cory Rumsey has Richard Henry aboard for what could be an honest pace piece. In a loose-knit field where the chalk is vulnerable, Everything to Gain at 15/1 is the kind of ticket-stuffer that pays the rent when the favorites fall flat.

Race 7

1:45 AM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Forced to Run dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden optional claiming sprint — but this is still a field of maidens, so nothing is guaranteed until they hit the wire.

win1Forced to RunML 5/2

Forced to Run posts an 87.81 rating — easily the best in this eight-horse field — and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market respects but doesn't fully believe the edge. Trainer Kevin N. Scott sends this one out with Amadeo Perez, a rider who's been consistently productive at Century Mile. With an average speed figure of 53 and a clear ratings gap over the field, Forced to Run is our top selection with legitimate upside if the pace sets up cleanly.

place8All for HimML 8/5

All for Him checks in at 59.00 on our ratings scale — second-best in the field — and opens as the 8/5 morning-line second choice. Trainer Robert Henson gets Kimal Santo in the irons, and the combination of a solid rating and market respect makes All for Him the logical place contender. The 53 average speed figure is competitive, and this one should be running at the end of six furlongs.

show7Mi AmigoML 5/1

Mi Amigo (No. 7) ties Queen Astrid from Race 1 at 53.33 on the TrackWiz scale and offers 5/1 morning-line value in a field where the bottom half of the ratings is soft. Trainer Mel Snow sends Brian Boodramsingh aboard, and while no career wins or speed figures are on file, the rating suggests underlying quality. In maiden races, a live 5/1 shot with a middle-tier rating is exactly the kind of show ticket that cashes quietly.

Race 8

2:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

G T Ray Sir enters as a dominant even-money favorite with a perfect 90 TrackWiz rating — this one looks like a near-lock, but the claiming tag means there's always a wild card lurking.

win4G T Ray SirML EVN

G T Ray Sir earns the maximum 90.00 rating in our model and opens at even money for trainer Ron Grieves with N'Rico Prescod up — the market has already found this horse. A 10% career win rate sounds modest, but at the claiming level with a speed figure of 54 and a ratings gap this wide, the per-start numbers don't tell the whole story. At 6.5 furlongs on dirt, G T Ray Sir should control or press the pace and have enough left to hold on.

place3PonderosaML 4/1

Ponderosa rates second in the field at 70.48 and comes in at a fair 4/1 on the morning line for Gonzalo Anderson with Rashaun Delane Tristan Griffith aboard. A 7% career win rate and average speed figure of 54 put Ponderosa in solid shape to fill the exacta slot if G T Ray Sir delivers. This is a horse that profiles as a pace-presser who won't go quietly.

show5Alberta BerbonML 8/1

Alberta Berbon posts a 57.92 rating — third-best in the field — and sits at 8/1 on the morning line for trainer Jerri R. Robertson with Brian Boodramsingh in the irons. The average speed figure of 54 matches the top two in the field, which means the ability is there even if the career win rate of 4% hasn't fully materialized yet. At 8/1, Alberta Berbon is the kind of show-position value that makes your exotic tickets breathe.

Race 9

2:45 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Squalotoro tops the ratings but opens at 4/1 while Pump the Brakes closes as a shorter-priced rival — the TrackWiz model sees more value on the morning-line overlay here.

win2SqualotoroML 4/1

Squalotoro rates highest in the field at 85.62 and offers real value at 4/1 on the morning line — a horse this highly rated rarely opens this long in a six-furlong claiming sprint. Trainer Carson Frey puts Keihton Natera in the irons, and an average speed figure of 54 with an 11% career win rate says this one has run with winners before. The ratings model strongly favors Squalotoro, and the odds make this our best value play on the card.

place5Pump the BrakesML 2/1

Pump the Brakes checks in at 84.40 — just off the top — and carries a 17% career win rate that speaks to consistent competitiveness at this level. Jose Mariano Asencio takes the call for trainer Robert Henson, and the 2/1 morning line reflects a horse the crowd trusts. In a two-horse battle at the top, Pump the Brakes is a legitimate exacta partner with Squalotoro.

show4Rapture BayML 9/5

Rapture Bay opens as the third choice at 9/5 on the morning line, which might seem short for a show pick — but the 68.11 rating sits a full 15 points below the top two, which is why we've slotted this one for the board rather than the win. Dane Nelson picks up the mount for James Wyness, and a 9% career win rate with a 53 average speed figure keeps Rapture Bay competitive without being dominant.

Race 10

3:15 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A wide-open allowance optional claiming route where five horses are bunched within five points on the TrackWiz scale — handicapping homework will separate the sharp money from the guesswork.

win6KnopflerML 8/1

Knopfler tops our ratings at 79.79 but opens at 8/1 — that's the overlay of the race. Trainer Barbara Heads sends this one out with Amadeo Perez, who has been one of the more active riders at this meet, and a 21% career win rate combined with an average speed figure of 54 says Knopfler belongs at this level. At a mile and a sixteenth, pace scenarios can be fluid, and Knopfler's ratings edge over a crowded field makes the 8/1 price genuinely attractive.

place1Holiday's AgainML 6/1

Holiday's Again rates second at 78.55 and comes in with a strong 26% career win rate — the best among our top three picks in this race. Trainer Tim Rycroft saddles Jose Mariano Asencio, and an average speed figure of 54 is right in the mix. At 6/1 on the morning line, this is a horse that wins a quarter of the time and is being offered at a fair price — solid each-way value.

show5Drinking AgainML 3/1

Drinking Again rates third on our scale at 76.01 and is the morning-line third choice at 3/1, giving you a horse with legitimate ratings support at a reasonable price. Dane Nelson gets the call for trainer James R. Brown, and a 19% career win rate with a 54 average speed figure makes Drinking Again a complete contender rather than just a board filler. In a tight five-horse cluster, this one deserves to be in your exacta and trifecta combinations.

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Bottom line: Century Mile is serving up a clean, fast-track card today with legitimate plays from Race 1 all the way through the 10th. Gimlet is the anchor of the free card, Miss Larue is the longshot flag worth watching in the premium races, and Diocles and G T Ray Sir headline the allowance and claiming action for subscribers. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart, manage your bankroll, and enjoy the racing.

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